Thailand's Economy Was Already Sickening

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could tip Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy into recession.

By Clara Ferreira Marques

 

FILE photo

 

Outside China, Thailand has the largest number of patients infected by the novel coronavirus. Unfortunately, the export-reliant $500 billion economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, was sickly even before the outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness. That reflects simultaneous blows from the Sino-U.S. trade war, the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency. Add in Beijing’s newly imposed restrictions on Chinese travelers, who account for the lion's share of arrivals, plus the knock-on effect on other tourists, and a recession begins to look imminent.

 

Thailand has lagged its Southeast Asian neighbors for some time. While political upheaval has been a major drag, there are others too: an aging population, poor productivity, flatlining consumption and hefty household debt. The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019. That’s considerably worse than even lackluster peers like Malaysia and Indonesia, and the country’s weakest pace since 2014, the year a military junta took power. 

 

Exports also shrank in 2019, with shipments in the key carmaking industry declining. Thailand is a regional hub for vehicle manufacturers like Nissan Motor Co., which have been affected by poor demand in major markets such as China.

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-01/coronavirus-thailand-s-economy-likely-to-face-recession

 

-- Bloomberg 2020-02-03

The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019.

an aging population, poor productivity, flatlining consumption and hefty household debt.

outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness.

the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency.

Exports also shrank in 2019

and a recession begins to look imminent.

 

OK I'll bite - How ? 

Edited February 2, 20206 yr by RichardColeman

9 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019.

an aging population, poor productivity, flatlining consumption and hefty household debt.

outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness.

the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency.

Exports also shrank in 2019

and a recession begins to look imminent.

 

OK I'll bite - How ? 

Central banks are like fishermen, the size of the catch is always inflated.

Only one thing to do now to fix all these problems......

 

Solution......

 

Continue to crackdown on visas for expats living in Thailand......Make expats life a living hell with a few more rounds of visa tightening so more will leave and don't forget the tourist who visit to much.......

The only fix that I could see would be a massive increase on public infrastructure spending, with some incentive to raise salaries. Accept the risk of inflation and control  household debt.

Also the risk with with large infrastructure projects is runaway corruption, so another kind of government, possibly ruling class, would be needed.

Thailand needs to rethink everything, the person in charge, corruption, road fatalities, immigration rules, water storage, high speed trains, submarines etc etc etc

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has lagged its Southeast Asian neighbors for some time. While political upheaval has been a major drag, there are others too:

Like accelerated ineptitude of those pretending to govern this country whist bleeding it to death to satisfy their insatiable appetite for personal wealth whilst showing a total disregard for the well being of the country and it's people.

Thanks to the smoking sugar factories, the economy continues to grow...????

1 hour ago, fforest1 said:

Only one thing to do now to fix all these problems......

 

Solution......

 

Continue to crackdown on visas for expats living in Thailand......Make expats life a living hell with a few more rounds of visa tightening so more will leave and don't forget the tourist who visit to much.......

What's wrong with hounding all these unqualified and financially-challenged long-termers languishing here under inappropriate tourist visas and extensions thereof? They need to stop squatting in airbnb condo lets or 5000 baht fan rooms and start booking into all these half-empty 5-star hotels like real tourists are supposed to do!

The economy has been dying for 4 years under somebody's control. They will use the virus as a distraction blame for their incompetence.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Unfortunately, the export-reliant $500 billion economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, was sickly even before the outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness.

Second largest. And then...

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has lagged its Southeast Asian neighbors for some time.

Lagged in what? Even when it's 'sickly', it's still the second largest SE Asian economy.

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

That reflects simultaneous blows from the Sino-U.S. trade war, the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency.

Apart from the 'stubbornly strong currency' the Sino-US trade war and the drought has hit everyone else in the region and not just Thailand.

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019. That’s considerably worse than even lackluster peers like Malaysia and Indonesia,

Show me historically where the GDP of any of Thailand's perpetually lackluster peers has done the polar opposite of Thailand's? None of them have ever bucked that trend. Thailand leads.

 

There's no argument that a whole lot of inertia has been lost over the last 5 years or so but taken in perspective, Thailand has a lot farther to fall than the neighbors so despite this hand-wringing, it will all work out just fine. Those that dream of sitting comfortably, maybe self-exiled in a neighbouring country and pointing at Thailand as some sort of economic basket case while saying som nam-nah, please take a number.

Edited February 3, 20206 yr by NanLaew

14 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

What's wrong with hounding all these unqualified and financially-challenged long-termers languishing here under inappropriate tourist visas and extensions thereof? They need to stop squatting in airbnb condo lets or 5000 baht fan rooms and start booking into all these half-empty 5-star hotels like real tourists are supposed to do!

Even airbnb's are down I see on Booking.com cancellation rate 61% down

Form a committee and have a meeting to discus forming a sub committee then get a vinyl board and a pointing stick and form a pointing committee its the only way to be clear???? 

2 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Form a committee and have a meeting to discus forming a sub committee then get a vinyl board and a pointing stick and form a pointing committee its the only way to be clear???? 

A pointing committee will the steer the way to a steering committee.

5 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Even airbnb's are down I see on Booking.com cancellation rate 61% down

...momentarily.

 

Are they 'up' in any of the lackluster neighboring countries?

4 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

A pointing committee will the steer the way to a steering committee.

You see creative thinking at its finest sure we can solve this on here is there a creative accountant in the house as well????

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019.

an aging population, poor productivity, flatlining consumption and hefty household debt.

outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness.

the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency.

Exports also shrank in 2019

and a recession begins to look imminent.

 

OK I'll bite - How ? 

Dare I say it, but this would not have happened under a Thaksin led administration.

 

18 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Lagged in what? Even when it's 'sickly', it's still the second largest SE Asian economy.

Economic growth.

3 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

The only fix that I could see would be a massive increase on public infrastructure spending

I thought they were doing that already with all the mega transport links/hubs projects!

Bloomberg got it all wrong, ask TAT.

The only certainty is that any responsibility for economic recession will be blamed on the Corona Virus and that the cascade of other failures causing it will be disregarded. Those who are truly responsible will not take responsibility nor will they be held accountable.  It will all be forgotten after the next coup..., or the coup following that one, or....

An off topic trolling post and the off topic reply has been removed. 

I think the only solution is announcement of crack-downs and plans to create some new hubs.

 

1 hour ago, scottiejohn said:

I thought they were doing that already with all the mega transport links/hubs projects!

Paid for by borrowing from the Chinese and using imported Chinese labourers - see Laos and Cambodia for examples

Obviously, a pro-China regime begets a recession sooner or later.

3 hours ago, NanLaew said:

Second largest. And then...

 

Lagged in what? Even when it's 'sickly', it's still the second largest SE Asian economy.

 

Apart from the 'stubbornly strong currency' the Sino-US trade war and the drought has hit everyone else in the region and not just Thailand.

 

Show me historically where the GDP of any of Thailand's perpetually lackluster peers has done the polar opposite of Thailand's? None of them have ever bucked that trend. Thailand leads.

 

There's no argument that a whole lot of inertia has been lost over the last 5 years or so but taken in perspective, Thailand has a lot farther to fall than the neighbors so despite this hand-wringing, it will all work out just fine. Those that dream of sitting comfortably, maybe self-exiled in a neighbouring country and pointing at Thailand as some sort of economic basket case while saying som nam-nah, please take a number.

 

Yeah, you're right. Everything is Picketyboo. No reason for negativity, it'll all be alright on the night...

 

Better write to Bloomberg pronto pronto and explain why they're wrong and you're right so they can change the report accordingly.

 

 

Because they are worth it. That's what you get for siding with the commies.

7 hours ago, webfact said:

hefty household debt

No thanks to ... BOT.

And lack of a spine.

In April 2019, the BOT imposed stricter housing loan regulations on concerns about household debt and rising bad mortgages following looser bank lending.  

It later relaxed some of the rules in August to help affected borrowers.

The country's household debt was equivalent to 79.1% of gross domestic product at the end of September, among the highest in Asia.

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1144236-thai-central-bank-eases-housing-loan-rules-to-help-home-buyers/?utm_source=newsletter-20200121-0547&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Blah, blah,blah       just about any first world country would sign for 2.5 % growth in GDP

As long as my cost of living stays the same, I have no worries. In fact, I might even be able to get more for my money. Maybe employ a second maid, this time of my own choosing lol.