Sovereignty comes first: Britain lays out tough stance for EU trade talks

[luckyluke]

7 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I have answered the same questions over and over with you.

No you haven't. 

 

But ok if you think so, you seems to be confused here also. 

[luckyluke]

8 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Have you found the threads on Trump yet.

Yes, but I am not really interested. 

I have my opinion :

Mr. Trump will be reelected, and then will be history. 

 

[Laughing Gravy]

1 minute ago, luckyluke said:

No you haven't. 

 

But ok if you think so, you seems to be confused here also. 

Yes I have go back over all our threads. You know you mentioned that British pensioners get angry at you and are aggressive.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with your very generous pension, which I am sure you love telling them at every opportunity. I believe it to be your personality and mannerism, if the way you constantly go on here..

[Laughing Gravy]

1 minute ago, luckyluke said:

Mr. Trump will be reelected, and then will be history.

We agree on something.

 

[codebunny]

8 hours ago, candide said:

B.S. And you dare to criticise other posters for allegedly making unsubstantiated claims.....

https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/united-kingdom/tradestats

I have posted evidence to substantiate that claim before on here, and I see no need to repeat myself, do other people's homework, or deviate from the low standards of most of the Brexaphobic posters here, but since you asked so nicely:

 

Quote

the share of UK exports of goods and services going to the EU has fallen, from 54% in 2000 to 43% in 2016.

Most of the decline in the EU’s share of UK exports is due to goods, not services

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

 

On that nice little interactive infographic, it shows that by 2016:

The UK exported £99.6Bn to the USA, the largest export destination, and 2nd largest import source.

The UK exported £49.1Bn to Germany, the 2nd largest export destination, and largest import source.

The UK exported £33.8Bn to France, the 3rd largest export destination, and 5th largest import source.

The UK exported £31.0Bn to Holland, the 4th largest export destination, and 3rd largest import source.

The UK exported £27.6Bn to Ireland, the 5th largest export destination, and 9th largest import source.

Unsurprisingly, there is high trade volume with adjacent countries, including Belgium and Norway.

China follows up as the 4th largest import source, Italy, Japan, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, we import a lot compared with exports from Norway and Poland. I will refer to those main EU trade destinations as the WEU7, because all 7 of them are in the Western European Union.  I leave Poland, Sweden, Denmark out, but you could say EU10. The EFTA2 are not as large, but not insignificant. Norway is an important energy and tech partner; Switzerland an important finance and tech partner.

 

You can see there's a big trade imbalance with Germany, and whilst it's easy to say the UK is only a tiny percentage etc... no country wants to lose a customer, especially an advanced and reliable one.

There is also a big trade imbalance with the USA, but in the UK's favour - they are our customer.

 

In 2016 we exported £248Bn to the rest of the world and £235Bn to countries in the EU - about £200Bn of those exports to the EU going to 5 countries: Germany, Ireland, France, Holland, Italy. Spain and Belgium account for a large part of the remaining £35Bn in exports from the UK to the EU.

Most exports from the UK to the remaining smaller EU economies aren't statistically significant.

 

This concurs with what's on your American university link; but it's not clear what the point you're trying to make is.

 

The potential for exports to Asia is definitely statistically significant, and with trade deals with large economies like China & HK, Saudi & GCC, Japan, Korea, and India, as well as Australia and Canada that trade could collectively massively outweigh what the WEU7 or EU10 above. The UK exports more to Singapore than it does to many EU countries even now.

 

The UK should be going for FTAs with the USA, China, HK, Norway, Switzerland, Japan, and Korea, as well as the EU, Australia, Canada, India, Singapore and GCC.

 

The opportunity for UK Non-EU export growth is something to be excited about.

Edited February 10, 2020 by codebunny

[candide]

6 minutes ago, codebunny said:

I have posted evidence to substantiate that claim before on here, and I see no need to repeat myself, do other people's homework, or deviate from the low standards of most of the Brexaphobic posters here, but since you asked so nicely:

You claimed that "the vast majority of UK trade is with Ireland".

[codebunny]

13 hours ago, Pattaya46 said:

5th? You should stop dreaming on the past.

UK is 6th or 7th depending on sources in last published data.

 

 

Your source is estimates made by the IMF in 2019 via Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

 

The World Bank and UN place the UK at 5th. There is no dreaming going on outside the EU.

[codebunny]

8 hours ago, samran said:

No, Singapore is a city state. Impossible to recreate that at a nationwide level. Not even that British bulldog spirit would make that happen. 
 

And no, I don’t hate the UK. Just myth-making attempts of some brexiters to justify their decision.

 

 

No, you know very well what is meant by "Singapore-on-Thames", and if you have to be fatuous, at least be funny.

[luckyluke]

4 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Yes I have go back over all our threads. You know you mentioned that British pensioners get angry at you and are aggressive.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with your very generous pension, which I am sure you love telling them at every opportunity. I believe it to be your personality and mannerism, if the way you constantly go on here..

Wrong, but I am sure I can not change your opinion.

 

Most of British people are convinced one can not get an extension based on state pension income. One can read it here also.

I just mention them there are countries where it isn't a problem at all, that Belgium is such a country and that it is my case. 

Many British seems not to like they are wrong, many even think they are Oh so superior. 

Many French people have also this attitude. 

 

 

[samran]

5 minutes ago, codebunny said:

No, you know very well what is meant by "Singapore-on-Thames", and if you have to be fatuous, at least be funny.

Why isn’t it Singapore on Tyne then? 

[codebunny]

8 hours ago, samran said:

And when you line up the EU economy with the UK economy side by side. It is a $20tn EU economy vs a $3tn economy who are going to be negotiating against each other.

 

Good luck with that!

Economies aren't monoliths, as I'm sure you know. It would be unkind to assume that you didn't know, because that would be like saying that you were not very bright, and I'm sure you are; or it might be like saying you were disingenuous, which I'm sure you're not; however the two concepts: knowing; and being disingenuous tend to be mutually exclusive.

 

The UK will not held back by the same constraints placed on Germany and the WEU7 when it comes to exporting around the world. Due to the large amount of exports Germany and it's gang want to sell to Britain, the incentive is on that $20Tn economy to keep selling, or face decline, and decline tends to have a cumulative effect as supply chains collapse when large manufacturers fail to export.

That piddly little $3Tn economy is already exporting more to countries outside the EU, and can more easily replace EU customers with the many more customers around the world, and helped by the fact that there is a smaller amount of export revenue to replace. That's maths, that is.

[codebunny]

1 minute ago, samran said:

Why isn’t it Singapore on Tyne then? 

It could be many Singapores at every rivermouth around the UK... all of them depressed post-industrial hell-holes kept depressed, poor, and undereducated by Labour to deliver a disproportionate number of Labour MPs per constituent, to try and blame the Tories for things that Labour did to them decades ago. Creating Shenzhen-like SEZs in every one of these urban centres... Tyne... Tees... Mersey... Tame... Dee... Clyde... Avon... Itchen... Taff... whatever... they can be transformed with a few acts of parliament and some innovative thinking.

[codebunny]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

You claimed that "the vast majority of UK trade is with Ireland".

Yes, I did.

[samran]

1 minute ago, codebunny said:

It could be many Singapores at every rivermouth around the UK... all of them depressed post-industrial hell-holes kept depressed, poor, and undereducated by Labour to deliver a disproportionate number of Labour MPs per constituent, to try and blame the Tories for things that Labour did to them decades ago. Creating Shenzhen-like SEZs in every one of these urban centres... Tyne... Tees... Mersey... Tame... Dee... Clyde... Avon... Itchen... Taff... whatever... they can be transformed with a few acts of parliament and some innovative thinking.

It would be rather more than that if you are being honest...
 

But go ahead and change those laws. All that will happen is London on Thames will make sense - at the expense of the rest of the country. 

[candide]

5 minutes ago, codebunny said:

Economies aren't monoliths, as I'm sure you know. It would be unkind to assume that you didn't know, because that would be like saying that you were not very bright, and I'm sure you are; or it might be like saying you were disingenuous, which I'm sure you're not; however the two concepts: knowing; and being disingenuous tend to be mutually exclusive.

 

The UK will not held back by the same constraints placed on Germany and the WEU7 when it comes to exporting around the world. Due to the large amount of exports Germany and it's gang want to sell to Britain, the incentive is on that $20Tn economy to keep selling, or face decline, and decline tends to have a cumulative effect as supply chains collapse when large manufacturers fail to export.

That piddly little $3Tn economy is already exporting more to countries outside the EU, and can more easily replace EU customers with the many more customers around the world, and helped by the fact that there is a smaller amount of export revenue to replace. That's maths, that is.

The problem is not only to find customers, it is to remain competitive. Having a large domestic market allows to reach a high level of economies of scale before even starting to export or operate abroad. That's what US firms have been doing for years, and what the Chinese are now doing (i.e. Huawei). It has also been a key objective for the EC/EU.

[codebunny]

1 minute ago, samran said:

It would be rather more than that if you are being honest...
 

It would be rather more than that if I was laying out an entire plan with precise detail on a small niche internet forum, but it would be honest to say that it would start with laws being created by parliament.

1 minute ago, samran said:

But go ahead and change those laws. All that will happen is London on Thames will make sense - at the expense of the rest of the country. 

Not really. If there is large trade volume with countries by sea and air, most port cities on the eastern and sourthern coasts, plus a few on the western coasts would be realistic destinations for trade traffic.

 

I agree you won't transform Middlesbrough into Shenzhen, but you will transform it into something a lot better by giving it infrastructure to move physical goods to and from ships and onto landfreight; and by improving it's digital and business infrastructure so that companies can start up there and move there. Regulatory changes could encourage corporate funding of local education and training.

It's state aid, and it worked in the far east over many decades to transform many countries.

Tax for public services comes ultimately from exports, and making exports grow is good for everyone.

[candide]

11 minutes ago, codebunny said:

Yes, I did.

I was replying about this claim (OK maybe too aggressively)

[codebunny]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

The problem is not only to find customers, it is to remain competitive. Having a large domestic market allows to reach a high level of economies of scale before even starting to export or operate abroad. That's what US firms have been doing for years, and what the Chinese are now doing (i.e. Huawei). It has also been a key objective for the EC/EU.

The EU hasn't been doing a good job of remaining competitive. Growth is chronically bad.

The EU isn't a domestic market, it's a foreign market. Yes there are shared standards, but different consumers with different languages and cultures, different product preferences.

 

Size of exports is affected by changes tariffs is not anything like as huge as people suggest.

The quality of British products and services is not going to change.

The price of German goods might increase a bit in the UK, but people will still split between buying the cheapest goods from outside the EU and buying the highest quality goods whether they come from EU states or not. The UK is very capable of absorbing any loss of service imports from the EU.

[codebunny]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

I was replying about this claim (OK maybe too aggressively)

Surely the point of this thread is about how trade negotiations between the UK and EU can play out.

 

It's not informative to anyone for people to keep banging on about it with broad bush statements and large numbers. None of that information is meaningful really.

 

If I want to buy a Mercedes or Miele washing machine, I will probably still buy one, even it the price goes up 10%, because in the end, I want that quality product from that country, Germany. Those companies in Germany also want to sell me, a customer in the UK those products, and the workers at those companies want to get paid to maintain their lifestyle. 

Similarly, some of those Mercedes and Miele workers, probably will still buy a bottle of single malt from their local off licence, which imports it from the UK, and will still pay the 10% increase, because they want that product, which they can't get from Poland next door, because it's not from there. Those same German workers, may well enjoy watching an American film made with British special effects companies, as they relax with their British booze. 

 

Now the EU can attempt to make big statements in trade negotiation's but German politicians are not going to want to hear about a deal that results in the closures of Mercedes and Miele factories, because they might reasonably believe that those German workers might be rather upset, and vote for AfD or someone else, and cause a change of government. If German's exports to the UK are suddenly hit with WTO tariffs, that will have an impact on the German economy as a whole.

 

The EU is not a country; not a monolith, and it is still dominated by a minority of its (original) members. People who only see this in terms of the EU v the UK are either being disingenuous or don't understand the realpolitik of the EU. It is a trade negotiation between the UK and Germany, really, where yes, some of the larger EU states in the WEU7 can make a noise, but in the end, they follow the leader. It's more useful and revealing to talk about this negotiation as being one between Britain and Germany, and what Germany wants is to maintain its exports to Britain.

[samran]

20 minutes ago, codebunny said:

It would be rather more than that if I was laying out an entire plan with precise detail on a small niche internet forum, but it would be honest to say that it would start with laws being created by parliament.

Not really. If there is large trade volume with countries by sea and air, most port cities on the eastern and sourthern coasts, plus a few on the western coasts would be realistic destinations for trade traffic.

 

I agree you won't transform Middlesbrough into Shenzhen, but you will transform it into something a lot better by giving it infrastructure to move physical goods to and from ships and onto landfreight; and by improving it's digital and business infrastructure so that companies can start up there and move there. Regulatory changes could encourage corporate funding of local education and training.

It's state aid, and it worked in the far east over many decades to transform many countries.

Tax for public services comes ultimately from exports, and making exports grow is good for everyone.

State aid of the magnitude you are talking about is an anathema to the majority of the Tory party and a large chunk of the sensible part of the Labour party. 

 

What you are talking about is a non-starter. Good luck getting it to happen (seriously).

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, samran said:

State aid of the magnitude you are talking about is an anathema to the majority of the Tory party and a large chunk of the sensible part of the Labour party. 

 

What you are talking about is a non-starter. Good luck getting it to happen (seriously).

 

dunno, but I wuldna call it state aid

its more in the category of improving the infrastructure on the foggy islands

all pommies might potentially benefit from that

 

[bannork]

1 hour ago, codebunny said:

Surely the point of this thread is about how trade negotiations between the UK and EU can play out.

 

It's not informative to anyone for people to keep banging on about it with broad bush statements and large numbers. None of that information is meaningful really.

 

If I want to buy a Mercedes or Miele washing machine, I will probably still buy one, even it the price goes up 10%, because in the end, I want that quality product from that country, Germany. Those companies in Germany also want to sell me, a customer in the UK those products, and the workers at those companies want to get paid to maintain their lifestyle. 

Similarly, some of those Mercedes and Miele workers, probably will still buy a bottle of single malt from their local off licence, which imports it from the UK, and will still pay the 10% increase, because they want that product, which they can't get from Poland next door, because it's not from there. Those same German workers, may well enjoy watching an American film made with British special effects companies, as they relax with their British booze. 

 

Now the EU can attempt to make big statements in trade negotiation's but German politicians are not going to want to hear about a deal that results in the closures of Mercedes and Miele factories, because they might reasonably believe that those German workers might be rather upset, and vote for AfD or someone else, and cause a change of government. If German's exports to the UK are suddenly hit with WTO tariffs, that will have an impact on the German economy as a whole.

 

The EU is not a country; not a monolith, and it is still dominated by a minority of its (original) members. People who only see this in terms of the EU v the UK are either being disingenuous or don't understand the realpolitik of the EU. It is a trade negotiation between the UK and Germany, really, where yes, some of the larger EU states in the WEU7 can make a noise, but in the end, they follow the leader. It's more useful and revealing to talk about this negotiation as being one between Britain and Germany, and what Germany wants is to maintain its exports to Britain.

But you're forgetting the determination of the EU to preserve the single market. German exports to the UK are only 6% of its total, we are its fifth most important trading partner. It may well be prepared to sacrifice that to preserve unity, and they know we depend on the EU for 45% of our exports.

[nauseus]

37 minutes ago, bannork said:

But you're forgetting the determination of the EU to preserve the single market. German exports to the UK are only 6% of its total, we are its fifth most important trading partner. It may well be prepared to sacrifice that to preserve unity, and they know we depend on the EU for 45% of our exports.

But you're forgetting that the EU have trade agreements with other countries. The only reason that the EU would deny the UK the same would be a bad one, as it must be clear to everyone that a good FTA would benefit both sides. 

[bannork]

11 minutes ago, nauseus said:

But you're forgetting that the EU have trade agreements with other countries. The only reason that the EU would deny the UK the same would be a bad one, as it must be clear to everyone that a good FTA would benefit both sides. 

As an outsider though, the UK cannot expect to have the same benefits as the EU members. Especially the more the UK wants to diverge from the EU rules. 

[vogie]

Owen Patterson MP, said that "the EUs opening stance is that the UK cannot have the advantages of EU membership having left, but they must also understand that they cannot have the advantages of the UK staying in!"

 

[david555]

any body who still don't believe WTO is as good as a fact ….? 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

Lisa O'Carroll Brexit correspondent

@lisaocarroll

Mon 10 Feb 2020 17.33 GMT

Michael Gove confirms post-Brexit trade barriers will be imposed

De facto deputy PM says nearly all EU imports will be subject to checks from next year

 

Michael Gove has told businesses that trade with Europe they need to prepare for “significant change” with “inevitable” border checks for “almost everybody” who imports from the EU from next year.

In the first official confirmation that the government is going to impose trade barriers post-Brexit, he warned there would be checks on food and goods of animal origin, plus customs declarations and mandatory safety and security certificates required for all imports.

“You have to accept we will need some friction. We will minimise it but it is an inevitability of our departure,” he told delegates at a Cabinet Office event held in central London on Monday, entitled Preparing Our Border for the Future Relationship.

 

more...

Edited February 10, 2020 by david555

[bannork]

2 hours ago, david555 said:

any body who still don't believe WTO is as good as a fact ….? 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

Lisa O'Carroll Brexit correspondent

@lisaocarroll

Mon 10 Feb 2020 17.33 GMT

Michael Gove confirms post-Brexit trade barriers will be imposed

De facto deputy PM says nearly all EU imports will be subject to checks from next year

 

Michael Gove has told businesses that trade with Europe they need to prepare for “significant change” with “inevitable” border checks for “almost everybody” who imports from the EU from next year.

In the first official confirmation that the government is going to impose trade barriers post-Brexit, he warned there would be checks on food and goods of animal origin, plus customs declarations and mandatory safety and security certificates required for all imports.

“You have to accept we will need some friction. We will minimise it but it is an inevitability of our departure,” he told delegates at a Cabinet Office event held in central London on Monday, entitled Preparing Our Border for the Future Relationship.

 

more...

Idiocy from the UK government. 

[Rookiescot]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

Idiocy from the UK government. 

The Brexiteers did promise to get rid of all that EU red tape so......

Oh wait never mind.

[david555]

17 hours ago, bannork said:

Idiocy from the UK government. 

Daniel Boffey in Brussels and Lisa O'Carroll in London

Tue 11 Feb 2020 11.25 GMT

 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/11/barnier-tells-uk-dont-kid-yourself-about-financial-services-deal

Barnier tells UK: don't kid yourself about financial services deal

EU chief Brexit negotiator scotches hopes of special deal for City of

 

 

Michel Barnier has warned Sajid Javid and Boris Johnson that “they should not kid themselves” that Brussels will give a special deal to the City of London after a photograph emerged of the UK’s opening negotiating position on the new post-Brexit arrangements.

 

A briefing paper, snapped by a long-lens camera as it was taken into Downing St on Monday, suggested the UK would seek in the coming negotiations a “permanent equivalence” regime for financial services that would last for “decades to come”.

Ursula von der Leyen mocks Boris Johnson's stance on EU trade deal

 

Speaking in the European parliament in Strasbourg, the EU’s chief negotiator scotched the chancellor’s hopes for maintaining such stable access to the European market after the end of 2020, when the UK leaves the single market and customs union.

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by david555