Novel Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) - What you really need to know.

[WaveHunter]

I'm starting this thread for discussion of science-based facts (not fake news) regarding the Covid-19 virus.  If you view what's happening right now from a science based perspective, rather than from a mass media perspective, it becomes clear that you should not be downplaying the seriousness of this virus. There is simply too much subjective hysteria, both in sensationalizing, and at the same time, in downplaying the significance of this virus, rather than objective science-based analysis.  So, that is what this thread should be about.  If you have something to say, back it up objectively, not just with your opinion, clever one-liners, or inflammatory remarks!  This is just too serious a subject to treat lightly.  Unlike a lot of other threads on this topic, let's try to be serious and intelligent adults here, not trolls.  

[WaveHunter]

First of all, a new report from Los Alamos Labs calculates Covid-19 may actually have an R0 (R-Naught) of between 4.7 to 6.6.  That is massively contagious, perhaps as much as by a factor of 2x than previously believed!  This is a new report, not yet peer-reviewed, but Los Alamos is a highly respected organization so this should be taken seriously.  If true, it is a serious disturbing game-changer in how dangerous this virus actually is  What's happening on the cruise ship that's been in the news lately strongly supports the notion of such a high R-naught value as this. 

 

For those who are unaware, R0 (R-naught) describes the infectiousness of a disease.  Covid-19 was originally believed to have an R0 of a little under three.  To visualize what R0 is, consider an R0 of 2 vs 4 with Ebola vs Sars respectively as shown in diagram, and then consider what an R0 of 6 might look like. 

 

 

The takeaway of R0 is this:  One infected person will give the virus to six other people, and then each of those 6 newly infected people will then go on to give it to 6 more people, and so on, and so on!  That means that this virus is enormously infectious, and what is happening in Wuhan right now and outside of Hubei Province as well, despite containment efforts suggests this is happening.

 

The significance of this report is in its' conclusion in the last paragraph of the report, which in summary is this:  All control measures to curb this virus in Wuhan which have been quite draconian have only been able to decrease the R0 by about 50-60%, which is not nearly enough to contain the outbreak. It is still spreading rapidly despite containment efforts, and will continue to do so.

 

For those who still cling to the notion that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than the Flu, they are either in denial or just ignorant!  Unlike Covid-19, Influenza has been around a long, long time, has been well studied, doctors know what to expect from it, and there is a vaccine.  Covid-19, on the other hand, is a brand new coronavirus never seen in humans before a couple of months ago so very little is known about its etiology.  Its' extremely high R0 is making it almost impossible to contain now.  Treatment options are very few with none of the anti-viral drugs proving to be too effective yet, and there is not a vaccine and will not be one that can be delivered to the global population for well over at least one year optimistically speaking, and most concerning is that 20% of confirmed cases are requiring ICU care which is threatening to overwhelm the healthcare system in Wuhan right now.

 

Even worse, unlike SARS, Covid-19 can spread from infected individuals who are asymptomatic, and the incubation time is also proving to be longer than previously thought (perhaps as long as 24 days!)  It's now believed to not only spread from droplets but by aerosol disbursement.  There is no natural immunity in the herd yet either (i.e.: no fire breaks).

 

Just as important to consider is the fact that "confirmed cases" of Covid-19 are only the tip of the iceberg.  Virus computer modelling (which is a very accurate predictor of what to expect) suggest that there were probably over 75,000 actual infections in Wuhan (as of the end of January) with a statistical certainty of 95% that the number is between around  37,000 to 133,000 infections).  The exact wording reported in The Lancet paper is "...75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). ..."  BTW, for those who are not aware, The Lancet is considered to be the preeminent peer-reviewed source of medical research reporting and analysis in the world. 

 

BTW, that doubling time (in the case of the cruise ship) is more around every 2.4 days...so the notion of confining "suspected" cases with mixed in with actual cases, which is happening in Wuhan would be disastrous, as the cruise ship situation is proving.

 

The significance of this number of suspected actual cases has to do with Covid-19's Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of around 20%, meaning that 20% of confirmed cases are currently going on to develop pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) requiring ICU care.  The real issue is that the number of ICU cases will quickly overwhelm the healthcare system, and many will therefore die, not directly from the virus, but from the inability of ICU patients to receive proper care.  This is why there is a macd rush in Wuhan right now to build new hospitals and in converting public spaces to massive makeshift triage centers ir order to take the burden off established hospitals capable of providing ICU care.  This action is also occurring in most developed nations around the world including the USA (though not being widely reported for obvious reasons to not panic the public.

 

Finally, there are the economic impacts that are beginning to be realized on a global scale.  These are becoming serious in the form of supply chain disruptions.  Not much is being reported about this in the news in order to avoid panic, but it is beginning to happen.  Considering that China is by far the main supplier to the world of pharmaceutical products and the second largest supplier, India, gets most of their raw materials from China, this is especially concerning.  For instance, the USA now has no production capabilities for manufacturing antibiotics.  Antibiotics are vital to treat secondary bacterial infections caused by pneumonia and ARDS, which is what usually ends up killing a patient with Covid-19.

 

If you really think Covid-19 is no big deal, just look at these two graphs; one picture is worth a thousands words IMO. 

    

  

To consider these facts is not scaremongering or being an alarmist; it is simply being a realist.  It's never a smart thing to merely accept public officials' reassuring statements and mass media messaging that use the phrase, "There is no cause for concern; everything is under control".  As soon as you start hearing that is usually when you should be concerned.

 

I am not saying you should believe a thing I say here.  What I am saying is that you should objectively learn the facts from reliable sources, and then decide for yourself what is true and what is real.

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[rvaviator]

Can you show a link confirming that the general view now is that this virus will infect via aerosol disbursement :

 

 

Maybe I did not google enough

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/claims-coronavirus-can-spread-through-the-air

 

I also think its important to focus on the death rate .. Getting sick is one thing .. We all do that from time to time... but how many die, is that not the ultimate worry ?

 

Then, lets look at who dies, who they are, how they live.. and see if we can learn anything from that ...

 

- Cleaner air (less pollution)

- Old and frail

- Have asthma and other respirator problems

- Obese, diabetic etc ... etc ...

- Genetics

 

Maybe a wake up call for a life style change to be more resilient for the future ??  How to develop a stronger and more robust immune system .....

 

 

[WaveHunter]

38 minutes ago, rvaviator said:

Can you show a link confirming that the general view now is that this virus will infect via aerosol disbursement :

 

 

Maybe I did not google enough

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/claims-coronavirus-can-spread-through-the-air

 

I also think its important to focus on the death rate .. Getting sick is one thing .. We all do that from time to time... but how many die, is that not the ultimate worry ?

 

Then, lets look at who dies, who they are, how they live.. and see if we can learn anything from that ...

 

- Cleaner air (less pollution)

- Old and frail

- Have asthma and other respirator problems

- Obese, diabetic etc ... etc ...

- Genetics

 

Maybe a wake up call for a life style change to be more resilient for the future ??  How to develop a stronger and more robust immune system .....

 

 

From what I understand, the aerosol disbursement has not yet been proven, but highly suspected from credible scientific sources, and currently being acted upon by the Chinese Government.  If you notice in many video clips coming out of China, they are using those trucks that spray huge plumes of some sort of chemical mist up to 2o feet in the air.  These are normally used in China to control rat, cockroach infestations on a monthly basis but now appear to be in use on a daily basis as a possible preventative measure against the virus...again, not confirmed by Chinese government but I'd say highly likely.

 

Nobody can really say what the actual Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is right now.  Due to the long incubation lag time, it's impossible to quantify until after the outbreak ends.  That's why I posted "Mortality Growth Rate" 

 

I think it's pretty accepted that anything that decreases your general immunity response such as age, pre-existing health conditions, etc puts  you a greater risk of getting serious complications from Covid-19, as would be the case of any virus. 

 

In fact, in regard to immunity response, I read some medical studies the other day how lack of sleep can severely compromise immunity response, and I posted it to another thread.  These studies are very well vetted and frankly, they were a real eye-opener to me!  You should check out my post which includes links to these studies at:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1144849-corona-virus-in-chiang-mai/page/30/?tab=comments#comment-15055835

 

Getting adequate sleep could very well be the single most important preventative measure one could take, not only against serious complications of Covid-19 that could land a person in the hospital, but for avoiding serious complications of any virus including Influenza or even the common cold.

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[geisha]

Hi, question to all. How about flying ? I’ve read that the air circulating in an airplane is filtered and cannot spread a virus.

How true is this ? 
i réalise , of course, that your seat neighbors may be infected and you could catch the virus that way. So what do you do when sitting next to someone who is coughing and sneezing and spluttering ? 
I’ve sat next to one poor man who was really ill on a flight and it was not a pleasant experience. Thanks.

[WaveHunter]

30 minutes ago, geisha said:

Hi, question to all. How about flying ? I’ve read that the air circulating in an airplane is filtered and cannot spread a virus.

How true is this ? 
i réalise , of course, that your seat neighbors may be infected and you could catch the virus that way. So what do you do when sitting next to someone who is coughing and sneezing and spluttering ? 
I’ve sat next to one poor man who was really ill on a flight and it was not a pleasant experience. Thanks.

Air is recirculated and disinfected with HEPA filters in airline aircraft.  While in flight It is completely recirculated and sanitized every 20 minutes or so I believe.  Many credible medical sources say you are in a safer atmosphere in an airliner than on the ground because of this...BUT that doesn't mean much if another passenger has a viral infection that's sitting nearby, ya know?  Given the current awareness, I think the cabin crew would take some sort of action, or at the very least assign you another seat if you requested it.

 

An interesting bit of trivia for those who care; the air breathed by flight crew on the flight deck is not the same air passengers breathe.  There are two AC Air packs that internal breathing air comes from, one from the left engine bleed and the other from the right engine bleed.  Breathing air supplied to the flight deck come from the Left bleed and air to the passenger zones come from the right bleed.  They also can be switched around through the air distribution manifold.  I'm not sure if this is to protect flight crew's ability to perform (from smoke in the event of a fire, perhaps?) or for some non-safety related reason.  Just thought it was interesting when I read about it.

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

การทำลายเชื้อโรค โควิด-19
โคโรน่าไวรัสสายพันธุ์ใหม่ เป็นไวรัสที่มีเปลือกหุ้ม
การทำลายจะง่ายกว่าไวรัสชนิดอื่นๆมาก
ไวรัสที่ทำลายยากกว่าจะไม่มีเปลือกหุ้มเช่น ไวรัสตับอักเสบ เอ ไวรัสมือเท้าปาก
การที่มีเปลือกหุ้ม เปลือกของไวรัสจะเป็นไขมัน
ไขมันจะสามารถทำลายได้ด้วยผงซักฟอก detergent แอลกอฮอล์ และสารฆ่าเชื้ออย่างอื่นอีกจำนวนมาก เช่นสารประกอบคลอรีน สารประกอบที่มีส่วนผสมของฟอร์มาลีน หรือฟอร์มาลดีไฮด์ กลูตารัลดีไฮด์
การล้างจานด้วยสบู่ หรือน้ำยาล้างจาน แล้วทิ้งไว้ให้แห้ง ก็สามารถทำลายเชื้อได้
การล้างมือด้วยสบู่ ก็ทำลายเชื้อได้ และปริมาณน้ำที่มากพอ จะชะล้างไวรัสออกไป
การปฏิบัติตน ทางด้านสุขอนามัย เรื่องความสะอาด การดูแลความสะอาดในของใช้ของกิน
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ถ้าได้ทำความสะอาดบ่อยๆ จะช่วยลดการแพร่กระจายของโรคได้เป็นอย่างมาก
ในโรงเรียนจะต้องเน้นเรื่องความสะอาด ข้าวของเครื่องใช้ ที่จะใช้ร่วมกัน
นักเรียนทุกคนจะต้องฝึกให้ล้างมือ เมื่อไปถึงโรงเรียน และก่อนรับประทานอาหาร หรือคิดว่าเมื่อมือสกปรก

 

 

 

Destruction of Covid-19 Pathogens

New strain of Corona virus Is a virus with a shell

The destruction is much easier than other types of viruses.

Viruses that are more difficult to destroy will not have envelopes, such as Hepatitis A virus, hand, foot, and mouth virus

Covering The virus's shell is fat.

Fat can be destroyed with detergent, alcohol and many other disinfectants. Such as chlorine compounds Compounds containing formalin Or formaldehyde Glutathione formaldehyde

Washing dishes with soap Or dishwashing liquid Then leave to dry Can destroy the infection

Washing hands with soap Can destroy the infection And sufficient amount of water Will wash away the virus

Sanitation practices Cleanliness Care for cleanliness in food items

Including things that must have people Frequently handle, such as in elevators, pressing buttons, railings, knobs

If you clean it often Will greatly reduce the spread of the disease

The school must focus on cleanliness. Appliances To use together

All students must practice to wash their hands. When arriving at school And before eating Or think that when hands are dirty

 

[Sheryl]

R0 is not a fixed characteristic. It can and does vary with the environment and according to what sort of preventive measures are taken. It will always be much higher in crowded conditions (like a cruise ship, or a Chinese market area) than it will be elsewhere.

 

That said, no credible source I have seen puts the R0 of this virus -- in the absence of effective control measues - in any area as above 3 let alone near 6.

 

Most estimates are around 1.5 - 2.5

 

And this will of course drop with effective measures.

 

 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

4 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

This is a new report, not yet peer-reviewed

This is just a calculation based on data which may or may not be correct/full. Also you have to take temperature and humidity into consideration - from studies we know that similar viruses remain airborne up to 24 hours in cold and dry weather, and can live on surfaces for up to 28 days(!) at 4 degrees celsius and low humidity. In high temperature (20+ celsius) and high humidity tests done on guinea pigs had ZERO airborne infections, while in cold (5 celsius) and dry there were 100% infections. In cold and humid conditions there were less infections, but still high. The virus remained active on surfaces only 1-2 hours at 40 degrees celsius and high humidity.

 

Now let's consider Wuhan/Hubei weather in January - it is usually humid year-round, but January is the dryest month of the year, and some days in January were significantly colder and dryer than others. This explains the shift in R0 between different periods you look at. In all likelihood infections will slow down as temperatures and humidity rise in China, but that of course may take months.

 

Thailand on the other hand is hot and humid year-round, including right now, so the virus is a lot less likely to spread by air or on surfaces. You'd need to be in close contact with someone sick to get infected. If there was a massive rise in cases here we would've already known about it as it's been weeks since Chinese new year. Unless government and hospitals are withholding data, of course, but I doubt they could do that at scale.

[Seaspray]

34 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

This is just a calculation based on data which may or may not be correct/full. Also you have to take temperature and humidity into consideration - from studies we know that similar viruses remain airborne up to 24 hours in cold and dry weather, and can live on surfaces for up to 28 days(!) at 4 degrees celsius and low humidity. In high temperature (20+ celsius) and high humidity tests done on guinea pigs had ZERO airborne infections, while in cold (5 celsius) and dry there were 100% infections. In cold and humid conditions there were less infections, but still high. The virus remained active on surfaces only 1-2 hours at 40 degrees celsius and high humidity.

 

Now let's consider Wuhan/Hubei weather in January - it is usually humid year-round, but January is the dryest month of the year, and some days in January were significantly colder and dryer than others. This explains the shift in R0 between different periods you look at. In all likelihood infections will slow down as temperatures and humidity rise in China, but that of course may take months.

 

Thailand on the other hand is hot and humid year-round, including right now, so the virus is a lot less likely to spread by air or on surfaces. You'd need to be in close contact with someone sick to get infected. If there was a massive rise in cases here we would've already known about it as it's been weeks since Chinese new year. Unless government and hospitals are withholding data, of course, but I doubt they could do that at scale.

All very clearly argued and logical... except if you look in the Supplementary Materials, Table S1, you will find this calculation was based of off 140 individual case studies ranging from Beijing to Macau, South Korea and Japan, Mexico, Thailand, and Taiwan...

 

This is Los Alamos National Laboratory we are talking about after all, so I wouldn't discount the new estimate offhand. As you stated however, nice hot and humid Thailand would likely have slower spread, meaning hopefully medical facilities would never be overwhelmed. Let's hope.

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

R0 is not a fixed characteristic. It can and does vary with the environment and according to what sort of preventive measures are taken. It will always be much higher in crowded conditions (like a cruise ship, or a Chinese market area) than it will be elsewhere.

 

That said, no credible source I have seen puts the R0 of this virus -- in the absence of effective control measues - in any area as above 3 let alone near 6.

 

Most estimates are around 1.5 - 2.5

 

And this will of course drop with effective measures.

 

 

I agree with you it is not a fixed number.  This report implies that the initial R0 assigned to the virus along with its' doubling time was incorrect, and in their estimation the virus was actually doubling every 2.4 days, with an R0 of between between 4.7 and 6.6.  

 

There is strong evidence for this if you look at what's happening on the cruise ship when unconfirmed or healthy individuals are mixed in with confirmed cases...which is what is starting to happen in Wuhan's "forced" containment centers right now.  That is not going to make things better; it's going to make the situation far worse.

 

This report comes from the Los Alamos Labs so it is highly credible.  While it has not yet been peer-reviewed, it is very compelling and credible...if you take the time to read it.

 

In the Abstract of the report, they assert that both the R0 and the epidemic doubling time of the early stages of the epidemic were actually incorrect.  Formerly the R0 was assumed to be around 2.2-2.7, and the doubling time was assumed to be 6.4 days.  In other words, BEFORE the draconian containment efforts were fully implemented (my fault for not making that more clear, but the report makes this very clear)

 

In their words:

"...Based on their "extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6"

 

The main reason I posted this was because of their conclusion statement.  It is VERY troubling IMO.  Although it is sort of buried in a lot of words at the end of the report, it is essentially this: 

 

Even though they see evidence of strong measures now being taken in Wuhan, and they are having a measurable effect on the rate of spread, the growth rate is only decreasing from 0.29 to 0.14 per day.

 

This translates to a 50-59% decrease in R0 to between 2.3 and 3.0.  In other words, this is AFTER all current measures have been taken, and clearly those measure are not enough to contain the virus...it is still spreading as an R0 3 virus would.

 

What is happening on the cruise ship right now is an example of the higher R0 they are talking about, and it is what it will be if authorities in Wuhan continue putting suspected cases into forced containment (detention is a better word) along with confirmed cases.

 

Don't shoot the messenger, just read the report:  Los Alamos Labs Report

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[metempsychotic]

wow, thanks for this topic which has cleared up absolutely nothing.

im particularly admiring your use of exclamation marks why providing un-reviewed data in a non-hysterical way.

[WaveHunter]

17 minutes ago, metempsychotic said:

wow, thanks for this topic which has cleared up absolutely nothing.

im particularly admiring your use of exclamation marks why providing un-reviewed data in a non-hysterical way.

I am only providing well vetted, science based information, along with links to the source of the information.  In the case of the Los Alamos Study it is credible and compelling...if you actually take the time to read it.

 

If you don't have the willingness or intelligence to explore this information objectively and then think for yourself, that's hardly my problem.

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[JHolmesJr]

The science on this is equally confused as the non scientific speculation

[WaveHunter]

7 hours ago, clarky cat said:

sounds like you're posting this for no other reason than to sound intelligent

With all due respect, if this is all you have to contribute to this thread, "sounding intelligent" is something you know nothing about, and something you'll never be accused of.

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[4MyEgo]

Having followed this link since 31 January there were 9,776 know people infected, as of today it is 64,447 known people infected, that's two weeks, now if we divide 9776 into 64,447, that = 15% or a little over 6x, is my math wrong ?

 

The above said, I have also noted the lag in updates, in other words, this is all we have to go on and who knows if we are being fed the truth when it comes to the numbers, just saying.....

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2CY5jFGa_Xl3d0BKAARqrW0RPh0FygFNHilpPq6V8fNuVz9bzSTh5J5EU#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[WaveHunter]

4 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

The science on this is equally confused as the non scientific speculation

...which is why everybody who gives a damn should be exploring all the facts from the most reliable and vetted sources they can find, and then making up their own minds about what is real and what is not.

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Why Me]

I'll give WH credit for seeking attention starting yet another virus thread, not shooting in the air like that guy downtown this morning.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Why Me

[WaveHunter]

13 minutes ago, Why Me said:

I'll give WH credit for seeking attention starting yet another virus thread, not shooting in the air like that guy downtown this morning.

Why is it that so many jokers on ThaiVisa like you take a special delight in cutting someone down who simply wants to explore a serious topic in a serious way?  THAT is why I started a new thread...to get away from people like you.

 

Is it really that important to you to impress fellow trolls with your clever little one-liners and personally directed barbs?  How impressive you are; I only wish I had half the rapier wit as you.  I think you are a genuine legend (in your own mind).

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

Having followed this link since 31 January there were 9,776 know people infected, as of today it is 64,447 known people infected, that's two weeks, now if we divide 9776 into 64,447, that = 15% or a little over 6x, is my math wrong ?

 

The above said, I have also noted the lag in updates, in other words, this is all we have to go on and who knows if we are being fed the truth when it comes to the numbers, just saying.....

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2CY5jFGa_Xl3d0BKAARqrW0RPh0FygFNHilpPq6V8fNuVz9bzSTh5J5EU#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That is not how you calculate R0.

 

Date cases are announced is not date they occurred. 

 

Cases get retroactively included as test results become available or case definitions change. There are time lags in receipt of case reports. Then further time lags in releasing media announcements.

 

R0 estimation is a complex epidemiological procedure that requires extensive data linking cases to likely exposure etc etc. It can't be done from media reports nor by people without advanced training.

 

They just upped the count substantially in China by changing case definition.

[scubascuba3]

5 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

That is not how you calculate R0.

 

Date cases are announced is not date they occurred. 

 

Cases get retroactively included as test results become available or case defintions change. Thete are time lags in receipt of case reports. Then further time lags in releasing media announcements.

 

R0 estimation is a complex epidemological procedure that requires extensive data linking cases to likely exposure etc etc. It can't be done from media reports nor by people without advanced training.

 

They just upped the count substantially in China by changing case definition.

Sheryl, in Thailand, if you have symptoms what are you meant to do? specifically Pattaya? is there a number to call? a specific hospital to go to?

[Sheryl]

37 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Sheryl, in Thailand, if you have symptoms what are you meant to do? specifically Pattaya? is there a number to call? a specific hospital to go to?

A governtment hospital would be best option.

 

Bear in mind there is regular influenza going round as well. Plus air pollution causing many people respiratory issues.

 

Frankly unless your symptoms are severe/suggestive of pneumonia OR you had exposure to known case or recent arrival from China,  I personally wouldn't seek medical attention. It is neither necessary nor feasible to test everyone  here with symptoms of a  respiratory bug.

[rvaviator]

5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

From what I understand, the aerosol disbursement has not yet been proven, but highly suspected from credible scientific sources, and currently being acted upon by the Chinese Government.  If you notice in many video clips coming out of China, they are using those trucks that spray huge plumes of some sort of chemical mist up to 2o feet in the air.  These are normally used in China to control rat, cockroach infestations on a monthly basis but now appear to be in use on a daily basis as a possible preventative measure against the virus...again, not confirmed by Chinese government but I'd say highly likely.

 

Nobody can really say what the actual Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is right now.  Due to the long incubation lag time, it's impossible to quantify until after the outbreak ends.  That's why I posted "Mortality Growth Rate" 

 

I think it's pretty accepted that anything that decreases your general immunity response such as age, pre-existing health conditions, etc puts  you a greater risk of getting serious complications from Covid-19, as would be the case of any virus. 

 

In fact, in regard to immunity response, I read some medical studies the other day how lack of sleep can severely compromise immunity response, and I posted it to another thread.  These studies are very well vetted and frankly, they were a real eye-opener to me!  You should check out my post which includes links to these studies at:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1144849-corona-virus-in-chiang-mai/page/30/?tab=comments#comment-15055835

 

Getting adequate sleep could very well be the single most important preventative measure one could take, not only against serious complications of Covid-19 that could land a person in the hospital, but for avoiding serious complications of any virus including Influenza or even the common cold.

Yes sleep is probably the best short term activity you can do to keep your immune system as strong as it can be given your physical condition. After all it takes a bit longer to get fit and improve you overall health ???? ...  I am well aware of the issue of reduced immune system under fatigue and stress.  Sitting up to 1 o'clock every morning drinking beer and reading about the Corona virus certainly does little improve it, that is for sure 555.

 

Regarding the spraying that is going on in Beijing right now (well maybe not today I think as it was snowing earlier today..) it is also done regularly to trap dust particles - They spray with just water.  Yes they may also spray now with disinfectant as its a quick and easy way to cover large surfaces quickly.  In some places they also spray people as they enter housing complexes and open public areas. In addition to taking the temperature.

 

Interesting times .... ????

 

 

[JHolmesJr]

This is where the virus beats us.

In its early incubation stages 3-24 days (maybe more), no symptoms

so the carrier goes around mixing freely.

Even if symptoms are present, it appears to be a common flu.

So more time wasted in diagnosis.

By the time the positive result is confirmed the carrier has been all over the place.

Unless people self quarantine at the slightest symptom...even then they risk passing

it on to family who will carry it outside.

It's too late to put the genie back in the bottle now.

Some reports say 2/3rds of the world can get it.

Probably better to catch it now and get free treatment.

 

[scubascuba3]

13 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

A governtment hospital would be best option.

 

Bear in mind there is regular influenza goig round as well. Plus air pollution causing many people respiratory issues.

 

Frankly unless your symptoms are severe/suggestive of pneumonia OR you had exposure to kbown case or recent arrival from China,  I personally wouldn't seek medical attention. It is neither necessary nor feasible to test everyone  hete with symptoms of a  respiratory bug.

i haven't got any symptoms but after about a 100 threads I haven't seen what people are meant to do hence why i asked

[scubascuba3]

12 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

This is where the virus beats us.

In its early incubation stages 3-24 days (maybe more), no symptoms

so the carrier goes around mixing freely.

Even if symptoms are present, it appears to be a common flu.

So more time wasted in diagnosis.

By the time the positive result is confirmed the carrier has been all over the place.

Unless people self quarantine at the slightest symptom...even then they risk passing

it on to family who will carry it outside.

It's too late to put the genie back in the bottle now.

Some reports say 2/3rds of the world can get it.

Probably better to catch it now and get free treatment.

 

If it's proper flu vs man flu then generally you'll need to stay in bed

[Why Me]

38 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Why is it that so many jokers on ThaiVisa like you take a special delight in cutting someone down who simply wants to explore a serious topic in a serious way?  THAT is why I started a new thread...to get away from people like you.

 

Is it really that important to you to impress fellow trolls with your clever little one-liners and personally directed barbs?  How impressive you are; I only wish I had half the rapier wit as you.  I think you are a genuine legend (in your own mind).

 

1. There are multiple existing Covid threads you could've posted to/revived. Yet you start another one.
2. To post the exact same high sounding stuff about RO in each thread. And scaremongering.

3. When I started a civil discussion with you in a prior thread and quoted a NY Times article, you ranted along the lines "Media like NYT are criminal ..." without objective argument which makes me doubt your rationality.

4. You are not a med person as admitted in the earlier thread so I respectfully suggest leave posting about the scientific aspects of Covid to qualified persons like Sheryl.

[WaveHunter]

10 minutes ago, Why Me said:

1. There are multiple existing Covid threads you could've posted to/revived. Yet you start another one.
2. To post the exact same high sounding stuff about RO in each thread. And scaremongering.

3. When I started a civil discussion with you in a prior thread and quoted a NY Times article, you ranted along the lines "Media like NYT are criminal ..." without objective argument which makes me doubt your rationality.

4. You are not a med person as admitted in the earlier thread so I respectfully suggest leave posting about the scientific aspects of Covid to qualified persons like Sheryl.

1) I started a new thread to discuss the science behind this with other like minded people.  Perhaps I should have given it a more appropriate title using the phrase "science based" ti dissuade less interested people.

2) There is nothing "high sounding" about discussing legitimate terms such as R0 unless the reader is simply ignorant.  Furthermore, it is not scaremongering to discuss facts and legitimate concerns rather than to just bury your head in the sand and pretend all is under control (which it clearly is not)

3) When you brought up the NYT article, I was very objective, providing examples of why I felt the way I did about mass media coverage of this outbreak. 

4) You are correct; I am not a medical professional, but I can read objectively, and have the judgement to pick well vetted sources, and most importantly, I can form my own assessment of the truth instead of just relying on others to spoon-feed me fake news and propaganda

 

And finally, I have every right to voice my views and share what I believe are relevant facts.  If you disagree with them, that's entirely your right to do and I welcome an intelligent and objective debate if that's the case.  I don;t welcome stupid and highly personal attacks simply because you dislike what I say.  hose kind of attacks are what ignorant people resort to when they can't or won't debate a point in a clear and concise way.

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

Sheryl, in Thailand, if you have symptoms what are you meant to do? specifically Pattaya? is there a number to call? a specific hospital to go to?

I know you addressed this to Sheryl but I can make a suggestion if one were really concerned about serious symptoms. 

 

In Chiang Mai (where I live), the best hospital to deal with a serious viral infection would probably be Nakornping Hospital because it is a ‘designated receiving area’ for people with infectious diseases.

 

So, my advice would be to google that term for such a hospital in Pattaya, though I'm guessing you would probably have to travel to Bangkok to find such a hospital.   

 

If less serious symptoms, my bet in Pattaya would be the Bangkok Hospital which is first rate, and if warranted, they would transfer the patient to an appropriate facility.

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, rvaviator said:

Yes sleep is probably the best short term activity you can do to keep your immune system as strong as it can be given your physical condition. After all it takes a bit longer to get fit and improve you overall health ???? ...  I am well aware of the issue of reduced immune system under fatigue and stress.  Sitting up to 1 o'clock every morning drinking beer and reading about the Corona virus certainly does little improve it, that is for sure 555.

 

Regarding the spraying that is going on in Beijing right now (well maybe not today I think as it was snowing earlier today..) it is also done regularly to trap dust particles - They spray with just water.  Yes they may also spray now with disinfectant as its a quick and easy way to cover large surfaces quickly.  In some places they also spray people as they enter housing complexes and open public areas. In addition to taking the temperature.

 

Interesting times .... ????

 

 

I have friends living in Shenzhen and they told me when those sprayer trucks normally go by their apartment building (i.e.: before the outbreak started) it was for rodent control.  What's more, they told me that afterwards, they would see cockroaches coming out of the sewers, and sometimes even out in their kitchens, all in the process of dying so I strongly suspect it was some form of insecticide.

 

What they are spraying right now, nobody seems to really know for sure but it would only make sense it is some kind of disinfectant because they seem to be spraying directly at buildings, shrubbery,railings, not only "up in the air" to control dust, though it makes sense that airborne dust would be a target too.

Edited February 14, 2020 by WaveHunter