NESDB lowers 2020 economic growth estimate

[webfact]

NESDB lowers 2020 economic growth estimate

By THE NATION

 

 

Thailand’s economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2019, lower than the previous estimate of 2.6 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said on Monday (February 17).

 

The NESDB said gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2019 expanded by 2.4 per cent year on year.

 

The NESDB has adjusted down its growth estimate for 2020 from 2.7-3.7 per cent to 1.5-2.5 per cent with a mean of 2 per cent.

 

Fourth-quarter Thai GDP growth lost the momentum of Q3

 

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382262

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-17

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[keith101]

With Chevrolet talking of closing down and a loss of 1,500 jobs here in Thailand the growth will be more likely at the bottom of the scale especially with the current virus situation .

[webfact]

Thai economic growth slips to 5-year low, rate cuts likely

By Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy grew at its weakest pace in five years in 2019 as exports and public investments slowed, adding pressure on the central bank to cut rates to shield Southeast Asia's second-largest economy from the coronavirus epidemic.

 

The trade-dependent economy has been buffeted by the Sino-U.S. trade war, soft domestic demand and a delayed fiscal budget and drought, but tourism stood out as a bright spot.

 

Many analysts now expect the Bank of Thailand to further slash rates at record lows to bolster growth this year.

 

Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, versus 2.1% forecast in a Reuters poll and the third quarter's upwardly revised 2.6% growth.

 

In 2019, the economy grew 2.4%, the slowest rate since 2014. It was in line with analysts' forecast, but was sharply down from upwardly revised 4.2% growth the previous year.

 

"The Q4 data was disappointing as the trade war weighed on exports and investments whilst the lagged effect of the government formation and budget bill approval sapped fiscal expansion," said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank.

 

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.2% in the October-December quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said, in line with upwardly revised 0.2% growth in July-September.

 

Thai stocks <.SETI> and the baht <THB=TH> were unchanged after the data, with traders saying the outcome was factored in.

 

RECESSION NOT EXPECTED

The state planning agency on Monday cut its forecasts for 2020 economic growth to 1.5-2.5% from 2.7%-3.7%. It also lowered its outlook for exports, the main growth driver, to a 1.4% rise from a 2.3% increase projected in November.

 

First-quarter GDP may contract from the previous three months before recovering in the second quarter as tourism should recover, Wichayayuth Boonchit, the NESDC's deputy secretary general, told a news conference.

 

"Q1 may contract but Q2 will improve, so it won't be a technical recession," he added.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) said the economy might expand less than 2% this year. Earlier this month, the BOT cut its policy rate <THCBIR=ECI> to a record low of 1.0%, and Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said there was room to help growth if needed.

 

"We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 1.9%, reflecting our view that the slowdown will extend into 2020," said Charnon Boonnuch, economist of Nomura in Singapore.

 

He expects the BOT to cut the key rate by another quarter point, likely in the second quarter.

 

Capital Economics also said further cuts were likely soon.

 

The BOT will next review monetary policy on March 25.

 

Thailand's growth has lagged regional peers for years with private consumption constrained by high household debt.

 

In October-December, exports dropped 4.9% year-on-year and public investment fell 5.1% while tourism growth slowed to 6.4%.

This year, the NESDC expects foreign tourist numbers to fall to 37 million from last year's record 39.8 million, due to the virus outbreak.

 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects foreign visitors to fall by 5 million this year and the loss in revenue could be as much as 500 billion baht ($16.04 billion).

 

(GRAPHIC: Thai GDP and regional peers - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/13/2110/2078/Thai GDP VS regional peers.png)

 

(Additional reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-17

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[graemeaylward]

I really don't understand why the baht remains steady!  But then I am not an economist! ????

[JimHuaHin]

1 hour ago, graemeaylward said:

I really don't understand why the baht remains steady!  But then I am not an economist! ????

 

Could it be that the Baht is being manipulated by powerful Bangkok interests?

 

There is no economic logic to the sustained strong Baht.

 

 

[Scot123]

Are we allowed to say Thailand's crash started coincidentally when the ligitimate civilian elected government was overthrown by the military who are coincidentally still unelected and coincidentally still running the country into the ground. It is so very sad that some on here still sing the praise of those responsible for the countries demise since 2006.

[trainman34014]

Here we go again; banking on 37 million Tourists when there is no realistic chance of getting anywhere near it.   If they are making all their calculations based on that sort of figure then there will be a mighty big hole in their numbers come the end of the year !