45 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

The numbers do seem low given that ~ 2 million people from China arrived ~ Dec 1 - Feb 4; with some ~ 78,000 (early on) from Wuhan (flights departed, they could live elsewhere in China/Hubei).

 

Latest report (17 Feb) says they have 82 "under treatment".

 

I think they'e fudging the numbers, but not to a significant extent (i.e. less than 100 cases, but more than 35). 

 

No clue why it hasn't been a more significant outbreak, but thankful.

 

Was in Singapore 10-17 Feb. The extent to which they make accurate, beliavable information available was a breath of fresh air, as was the PM2.5 figures in the 30's.

 

 

 

 

May be you read this: https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-17-february-2020

Never see this before as this would have answered my main question. This is from the WHO Thailand....

"• The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

I assume that all people without any travel history such as taxi driver, hotels staff, shopping center staff, waitress etc. in a nutshell all those people with closes contact to Chinese tourists are falling right through this screen and might never listed in this statistic nor being tested.

As now travel is in some places 80% down would explain that the numbers of PUI are down.

This is exactly how statistic is working and I repeat it again it depends on how the numbers are gathered.

And this is the more scary part:

"• Health authorities reiterate that the Government continues to plan for the possibility that human-to-human transmission may escalate in the weeks and months ahead, bringing an increase in the number of cases from more areas of the country."

And this is the interesting part:

"• Authorities are registering commercial test kits for COVID-19, to ensure that at least one key hospital per province across Thailand initially has the kits necessary to carry out testing of suspected cases."

No panicking no fear mongering. Just common sense of a father of 2 kids. We need transparency to make the right decision.

5 minutes ago, smedly said:

some 600 were under investigation (what than means is unclear) 10 days ago

 

So, who is now under investigation ? - I think they have given up on that one.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no46-180263.pdf

 

Latest report I could find in English

 

PUI = 957

 

856 recovred from whatever illness they had and were discharged.

 

100 "under treatment".

 

 

54 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If the legislation to grow 1 Rai of cannabis plants passes he may still be seen to be heroic by some!

That is hemp, but by my calculations I think my wife can still get 600-700 grams of quality every 3 months from 6 plants. 

 

EDIT @FarFlungFalang   check out "the thick of it".... yes minister for this century

Edited February 20, 20206 yr by CraigInBangkok

The comments here, above, and in the first Blog here in this feed, simply reflect the truth about Every "Government" in the world ! ... (Like Nothing new here) ..... Not only here in Thailand, though possibly they might be a bit better at it ! Right ! HarHar ... Like they do at least have a socially cooperative society, which many other countries do not. ... Hence there actually IS the Potential that there actually might be a lot of truth it the Health Departments Professionals, statements at least.

 

Yes I think that Whuhan was totally riddled, and Rotten with it, before the Chinese Government reported it. ... Don't you just LOVE the really peeved look on Xi Jinping's Face now, every time the media get a shot of him !!! ... Like serves him right !!! ... The <Deleted> Lying and Cheating power hungry, Commie <deleted> ! .... (Can I say that ? Or should I delete it ? even if it is the truth ?)

7 minutes ago, smedly said:

some 600 were under investigation (what than means is unclear) 10 days ago

 

So, who is now under investigation ? - I think they have given up on that one.

 

What is likely happening is  -

 

Anyone reporting to doctor/hospital with symptoms are told to go home and isolate, those numbers are "in the wind"  for now

 

Is anyone telling lies - well strictly speaking no - because the wrong questions are being asked 

I fear this is like the tsunami when the water had gone out and folk scrambled to harvest the free fish that were lying on the beach blissfully unaware of what that sign portens. We are effectively 2 months behind China with the epicentre at Wuhan in a desperate race against time to strengthen medical networks and find a vaccine. 

Well, who are the 'academics' questioning Thailand's response and figures? The story doesn't say, so how can we judge whether or not they know what they're talking about?

 

The public health system in Thailand has thousands of dedicated and ethical people working within it. So, whatever you think of whichever politician happens to be the minister at any given moment, if the minister was lying and covering up the true scale of the situation, I am certain that whistleblowers within the public health system would speak out. I will take the minister at his word until they do.

If he has to kneel, he can always blame the "farang".

4 minutes ago, RobertH said:

Well, who are the 'academics' questioning Thailand's response and figures? The story doesn't say, so how can we judge whether or not they know what they're talking about?

 

The public health system in Thailand has thousands of dedicated and ethical people working within it. So, whatever you think of whichever politician happens to be the minister at any given moment, if the minister was lying and covering up the true scale of the situation, I am certain that whistleblowers within the public health system would speak out. I will take the minister at his word until they do.

You also believe in Father Christmas.Bless you.

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“People who said such things don’t live in Thailand and they don’t know how we work,”

 

Well most of us here live in Thailand and we know how the government works, and we don't believe you either!

14 hours ago, Odysseus123 said:

"He flies thu' the air with the greatest of ease

The daring silly Thai on the flying trapeze..."

Actually he does. He owns an airfield and plane or two.

10 minutes ago, RobertH said:

Well, who are the 'academics' questioning Thailand's response and figures? The story doesn't say, so how can we judge whether or not they know what they're talking about?

 

The public health system in Thailand has thousands of dedicated and ethical people working within it. So, whatever you think of whichever politician happens to be the minister at any given moment, if the minister was lying and covering up the true scale of the situation, I am certain that whistleblowers within the public health system would speak out. I will take the minister at his word until they do.

here  you go - posted earlier up in the thread. Tellingly the link has now disappeared from the front page I had to search my old posts to find it again !

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-chief-explains-vague-virus-updates-74878.php

 

PHUKET: The Phuket Provincial Health Office (PPHO) Chief has defended the lack of information made available at the mandatory daily coronavirus situation updates, saying Phuket officials are under orders from Bangkok to restrict the information being made available to the public.

 

This absolutely true.

 

The public health system in Thailand has thousands of dedicated and ethical people working within it.

Edited February 20, 20206 yr by URMySunshine

hub of no new patients and zero deaths

Anutin would be well advised to keep his shirt on. This has NOTHING to do with losing face, be it the Thai government, the Thai people or he himself. His face is of absolute no interest to nobody in this equation.

 

In addition it would help to have a professional at the helm of a ministry. The foreign ministry is headed by a seasoned top professional Thai diplomat, Don Pramudwinai. You may agree or disagree with what he says but he knows his onions.

Not so Anutin, who might not be able to distinguish between Paracetamol and Aspirin. Just saying ........

Don't bark at those who lack confidence in the Thai ministry of health but prove them wrong by doing the right thing. 

My opinion on this subject is different than most expressed here. I have education and working experience in epidemiology.  I have been a keen observer of this situation as it has unfolded in Thailand.

 

From the start Thai authorities employed large scale screening - segregation and isolation of suspected cases plus quarantine of actual cases. They also used Contact Tracing methods to discover people who did not know they had been exposed and put them under isolation and evaluation. 

 

These methods have worked well. The various international Thailand airports have all employed these techniques.  The Thai medical system is good - having responded well. The 34 confirmed cases are in fact a believable number. 

 

Central Thai Government authorities in Bangkok would have a difficult time hiding Confirmed Cases in far flung cities like Phuket and Krabi. Confirmed Cases in these places  would become known if not from local authorities - it would be leaked out by numerous personnel who would be directly knowledgeable. 

 

In short, Thai Government officials  do not have the power to keep cases of this Wuhan Coronavirus secret all over a very widespread country from North to South. Leaks would occur because people would fear that their families would be in danger. Furthermore - opponents of the Thai Regime now in charge would jump at a chance to discredit current government officials and policies. Is that happening? Has counter evidence be published?

8 minutes ago, JDGRUEN said:

My opinion on this subject is different than most expressed here. I have education and working experience in epidemiology.  I have been a keen observer of this situation as it has unfolded in Thailand.

 

From the start Thai authorities employed large scale screening - segregation and isolation of suspected cases plus quarantine of actual cases. They also used Contact Tracing methods to discover people who did not know they had been exposed and put them under isolation and evaluation. 

 

These methods have worked well. The various international Thailand airports have all employed these techniques.  The Thai medical system is good - having responded well. The 34 confirmed cases are in fact a believable number. 

 

Central Thai Government authorities in Bangkok would have a difficult time hiding Confirmed Cases in far flung cities like Phuket and Krabi. Confirmed Cases in these places  would become known if not from local authorities - it would be leaked out by numerous personnel who would be directly knowledgeable. 

 

In short, Thai Government officials  do not have the power to keep cases of this Wuhan Coronavirus secret all over a very widespread country from North to South. Leaks would occur because people would fear that their families would be in danger. Furthermore - opponents of the Thai Regime now in charge would jump at a chance to discredit current government officials and policies. Is that happening? Has counter evidence be published?

Thanks for the informed opinion and I hope your optimism is well grounded. This is a good narrative well told. Now why could Anutin have not made such comments in a similar responsible , authoritative and educated way ? I shall make my day trip to Koh Larn today with a renewed sense of optimism and fear free! 

Edited February 20, 20206 yr by URMySunshine

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Anutin said the Thai government never hid the truth as it might lead to a harder process and the country’s measures were effective.

I've never heard of any government telling the truth,

   a hard process indeed.

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

The numbers do seem low given that ~ 2 million people from China arrived ~ Dec 1 - Feb 4; with some ~ 78,000 (early on) from Wuhan (flights departed, they could live elsewhere in China/Hubei).

 

Latest report (17 Feb) says they have 82 "under treatment".

 

I think they'e fudging the numbers, but not to a significant extent (i.e. less than 100 cases, but more than 35). 

 

No clue why it hasn't been a more significant outbreak, but thankful.

People from Wuhan that visited Thailand up until the quarantine in China may have been infected, but very few if any. 

Currently after ~3 weeks of tracking by WHO, the number infected in Wuhan - Hubei is less than 1%

So out of that 1% those who traveled to Thailand out of possible 2 million visitors would statistically be less than 1/10 of 1%.  So around 2000 possible.

 

If viruses spread as some people believe on this forum, the regular influenza would infect millions every year.  Remember, there is no drug to cure any type of influenza, and so far nothing has shown that this CoVid-19 is more lethal than a normal "flu" .  Vaccines for swine flu and avian flu developed in past years, are still not 100% effective, 10's of thousands die every year from influenza in the U.S.  Same in other countries. 

  

The notion that the Thai government is somehow "not reporting" cases, is of course possible. 

Yet as others have said, social media, the doctors and health workers in all the Private hospitals, would be reporting cases to WHO as they are not run by the government.

Here's my bit of factual news going back to the UK unexpectedly tomorrow to visit my my dying father the reason I'm not there already is because I have had very bad flu my dad's hospital called me yesterday night to say basically hurry up and I explained the situation I'm in and to cut a long story short I have public health england calling me today here to tell me if I will be allowed anywhere near the hospital if i make it back at all ????

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“People who said such things don’t live in Thailand and they don’t know how we work,”

Oh yes they do! That is exactly what they are worried about!

6 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Here's my bit of factual news going back to the UK unexpectedly tomorrow to visit my my dying father the reason I'm not there already is because I have had very bad flu my dad's hospital called me yesterday night to say basically hurry up and I explained the situation I'm in and to cut a long story short I have public health england calling me today here to tell me if I will be allowed anywhere near the hospital if i make it back at all ????

May we all wish you a speedy recovery, hope you get good news about the trip, and offer our sympathy for your father.

15 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

An angry denial of the truth speaks volumes...  I think Sweden are correct in there assumptions the figures don't add up in Thailand ????

Yet according to a chart published on this site Thailand are better placed than Sweden, Denmark and Finland to deal with a pandemic.

10 hours ago, misterjames said:

I see Anutin has his damage control team in here as usual. 

 

In case any of the rest of you are wondering I can tell you for sure that his people are on here and he understands English perfectly. 

 

I knew that long before seeing any of these posts.

 

 

Come on then, name names. 

All of this coming from a man who had absolutely no experience whatsoever in the health field, prior to being appointed Health Minister of the nation. Talk about selecting from the bottom of the barrel. BOBA. The bottom of the barrel army. 

29 minutes ago, JDGRUEN said:

My opinion on this subject is different than most expressed here. I have education and working experience in epidemiology.  I have been a keen observer of this situation as it has unfolded in Thailand.

 

From the start Thai authorities employed large scale screening - segregation and isolation of suspected cases plus quarantine of actual cases. They also used Contact Tracing methods to discover people who did not know they had been exposed and put them under isolation and evaluation. 

 

These methods have worked well. The various international Thailand airports have all employed these techniques.  The Thai medical system is good - having responded well. The 34 confirmed cases are in fact a believable number. 

 

Central Thai Government authorities in Bangkok would have a difficult time hiding Confirmed Cases in far flung cities like Phuket and Krabi. Confirmed Cases in these places  would become known if not from local authorities - it would be leaked out by numerous personnel who would be directly knowledgeable. 

 

In short, Thai Government officials  do not have the power to keep cases of this Wuhan Coronavirus secret all over a very widespread country from North to South. Leaks would occur because people would fear that their families would be in danger. Furthermore - opponents of the Thai Regime now in charge would jump at a chance to discredit current government officials and policies. Is that happening? Has counter evidence be published?

I agree to some extent Thailand is doing all it can to control the outbreak

but just ask yourself this question how many of the 947 suspected cases were tested for CV and were negative?
And why the hush hush in Phuket? 

 

Quote

saying Phuket officials are under orders from Bangkok to restrict the information being made available to the public.

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-chief-explains-vague-virus-updates-74878.php

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

All of this coming from a man who had absolutely no experience whatsoever in the health field, prior to being appointed Health Minister of the nation. Talk about selecting from the bottom of the barrel. BOBA. The bottom of the barrel army. 

  Yes, but their tea is very popular.  

We need a few Scranton Reality Anchors installed in Thailand.

Every Time I hear his man speak, some form of xenophobic rant seems to spew. 

Some key details ....

 

1. First confirmed case in Wuhan reported in the Lancet was 1 December.  So virus in circulation since November.   

 

2. Screening at airport for arrivals from China not introduced until January.

 

3. Still no screening for arrivals from other countries with known cases. 

 

4. Mild symptoms or even no symptoms possible - some confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms at all

 

5. Confirmed secondary cases in Thailand.

 

6. There is limited testing capability in most countries

 

So actual numbers can not be known, but will be directly related to airport arrivals.

 

I don't believe anyone is hiding numbers, I'm sure the true number cannot be known - but they must be higher than the reported number.  But as it's not that serious for people who are not already ill, why all the fuss?

 

Report below from a medical journal confirms what we all know, but does it really matter?

 

 

58 minutes ago, JDGRUEN said:

From the start Thai authorities employed large scale screening - segregation and isolation of suspected cases plus quarantine of actual cases. They also used Contact Tracing methods to discover people who did not know they had been exposed and put them under isolation and evaluation. 

 

These methods have worked well. The various international Thailand airports have all employed these techniques.  The Thai medical system is good - having responded well. The 34 confirmed cases are in fact a believable number. 

 

I returned to SBIA/BKK Monday evening from Singapore.

 

Did not observe ANY of these "methods".

 

Perhaps you can share the details supporting your "statement"? 

 

Identifying asympotmatic patients seems like it might require a fortune teller?

 

 

9 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Some key details ....

 

1. First confirmed case in Wuhan reported in the Lancet was 1 December.  So virus in circulation since November.   

 

2. Screening at airport for arrivals from China not introduced until January.

 

3. Still no screening for arrivals from other countries with known cases. 

 

4. Mild symptoms or even no symptoms possible - some confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms at all

 

5. Confirmed secondary cases in Thailand.

 

6. There is limited testing capability in most countries

 

So actual numbers can not be known, but will be directly related to airport arrivals.

 

I don't believe anyone is hiding numbers, I'm sure the true number cannot be known - but they must be higher than the reported number.  But as it's not that serious for people who are not already ill, why all the fuss?

 

Report below from a medical journal confirms what we all know, but does it really matter?

 

 

"But as it's not that serious for people who are not already ill, why all the fuss?"

 

Because people can catch the virus and possibly infect their loved ones, and no vaccine to cure the virus.