Baht keeps strength despite coronavirus outbreak, economic decline

[saengd]

7 minutes ago, Kenny202 said:

I've seen that for a number of years now to the point you just can't believe anything you see on the internet or offical news. You can get media advices from 3 different departments in a day that all put their own portfolio in a golden light and the blame on others. Obviously minister trying to hang on to his job. Skew this figure and that figure favourably. Would be picked to pieces by the western media back home. You only have to compare whats coming out of the Health department and TAT at the moment which do not correlate with each other. One minute the Health guy is saying never mind Corona, its only a severe flu, week after admonishing people for not wearing masks when he's not wearing one himself lol, then talking about closing borders. Then Thailand have found a magic cure etc. The TAT is even more unbelievable and contradictory. As someone said, make it sweet and they'll eat it lol. Honestly my 3yo son tells better stories 5555

To be fair those are January figures and things here didn't really get bad until this month. Plus January is traditionally high season and posters here did report some positive aspects of tourism in Phuket. I guess we have to wait and see how February gets reported, there's no way that can be positive.

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling image has been removed as well as a reply. 

[Kenny202]

43 minutes ago, saengd said:

To be fair those are January figures and things here didn't really get bad until this month. Plus January is traditionally high season and posters here did report some positive aspects of tourism in Phuket. I guess we have to wait and see how February gets reported, there's no way that can be positive.

I travelled to several areas of Thailand early January Chiang Rai, Phitsanulok, Koh Chang and everywhere in between (not Phuket or Pattaya) and it was dead as a dodo. That was before Corona virus. The Chinese visitors have been on the wain for a couple of years now. China and Chinese people have changed immeasurably and Chinese people of means who have funds to travel know the difference between good and bad service, value for money and probably have higher expectations than Westerners. They wont put up with the scams, poor safety and near enough is good enough forever. Hotels and tourist areas have become tired and run down with little maintenance apart from a big showy renovated reception area, but still the 1990's rooms, albeit with a lick of paint. The unspoilt beaches etc aren't unspoilt anymore and tourist operators have raped robbed and pillaged what they could with no cohesion or regulation. You've only got to try and hail a cab in Bangkok to know what I mean. Even the sex tourist areas have changed to the point where most of the fun is gone. 

[saengd]

21 minutes ago, Kenny202 said:

I travelled to several areas of Thailand early January Chiang Rai, Phitsanulok, Koh Chang and everywhere in between (not Phuket or Pattaya) and it was dead as a dodo. That was before Corona virus. The Chinese visitors have been on the wain for a couple of years now. China and Chinese people have changed immeasurably and Chinese people of means who have funds to travel know the difference between good and bad service, value for money and probably have higher expectations than Westerners. They wont put up with the scams, poor safety and near enough is good enough forever. Hotels and tourist areas have become tired and run down with little maintenance apart from a big showy renovated reception area, but still the 1990's rooms, albeit with a lick of paint. The unspoilt beaches etc aren't unspoilt anymore and tourist operators have raped robbed and pillaged what they could with no cohesion or regulation. You've only got to try and hail a cab in Bangkok to know what I mean. Even the sex tourist areas have changed to the point where most of the fun is gone. 

I'm OK to debate the value of the Thai Baht and the strengths and weaknesses of the Thai economy but I'm just not up for broad based bashing Thailand as a tourist destination because it doesn't achieve anything and is not productive, apart from which we all see different things so it's a futile debate. 

 

I think on balance this thread has gone about as far as it sensibly can, hopefully a few people will have a better understanding of THB and the economy as a result, in which case it will have been worthwhile.

[Kenny202]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

I'm OK to debate the value of the Thai Baht and the strengths and weaknesses of the Thai economy but I'm just not up for broad based bashing Thailand as a tourist destination because it doesn't achieve anything and is not productive, apart from which we all see different things so it's a futile debate. 

 

I think on balance this thread has gone about as far as it sensibly can, hopefully a few people will have a better understanding of THB and the economy as a result, in which case it will have been worthwhile.

Well my friend there are figures and there are realities. My comments are not meant to be bashing and I do get a little tired of hearing that (or troll) when someone doesn't like or agree with a comment. I don't know what positive reports you saw about Phuket, only one I saw was some old Thai guy on the beach saying all of his deck chairs were rented lol. But maybe your right. I see TAT quoting January tourism figures increased by a small percentage on last year 5555. 

 

I'm sure we all agree your insights have been enlightening and you obviously have a better handle on things than most. But I am still stuck on your middle income figures and of course tourism and exports as they are at the moment. People are being retrenched daily, factory closures....somedays in the thousands. Agriculture exports have become uncompetitive...Thailand is now seen as a low tech manufacturer....and it seems little apart from talk is being done to change this and hi tech companies are slowly moving elsewhere. And how many tourist guides and workers have shut up shop. Surely these are new developments in Thailand and have been unheard of in at least the last 10 years. I just still find it hard to believe these things will not effect the outcome. But I do agree. This thread has run it's course. Thanks again for the lengthy explanations and insights you have given.   

Edited February 26, 2020 by Kenny202

[saengd]

9 hours ago, Kenny202 said:

I don't know what positive reports you saw about Phuket, only one I saw was some old Thai guy on the beach saying all of his deck chairs were rented lol.

Post 59, poster is a hotel owner in Phuket.

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by saengd

[Roadkillaf]

Maybe we ought to place our bets as to where it'll be by October, .5 spread, top 5 winners get cold Hefeweizens from the losers. ????

[rabang]

On 2/27/2020 at 9:14 AM, saengd said:

Post 59, poster is a hotel owner in Phuket.

 

I was in Phuket in December. The resort where we stayed at, a nice place by the sea, individual cabins and so on. There was a rental car at the neighbouring cabin but I didn't see any people. Otherwise the whole place seemed almost deserted. I booked it the day before arrival and there were huge discounts for every place. Might be just a marketing trick but nevertheless I didn't get an impression of high occupancy anywhere. Even Phi Phi wasn't as crowded as I would have expected.

Edited March 4, 2020 by rabang

[balo]

The baht is strong only because of some very rich and influential families in Thailand with ties to the political leaders.
Yes it's called corruption and the baht will continue on this fake ride as long as they are in control of the country. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by balo

[stament]

Arrived at 1830 into BKK airport today, was like a ghost town. Almost as many staff as passengers. On the +side was quick and no queues. Our flight was empty too.

 

No travel advisors in the collection area in arrivals floor. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by stament

[saengd]

39 minutes ago, balo said:

The baht is strong only because of some very rich and influential families in Thailand with ties to the political leaders.
Yes it's called corruption and the baht will continue on this fake ride as long as they are in control of the country. 

Tell me, how do they manage this, what do they do to keep it so strong?

[balo]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

Tell me, how do they manage this, what do they do to keep it so strong?

Ask the political leaders in charge! 

[saengd]

14 minutes ago, balo said:

Ask the political leaders in charge! 

But I'm asking you, you say it has to do with very rich and influential families, surely you must know a little bit about how it works or did you just guess that it could/might be because it's fashionable to bash Thai elite?

[balo]

It is what it is, if you want to defend the Thai eilite , up to you. 

[saengd]

1 hour ago, balo said:

It is what it is, if you want to defend the Thai eilite , up to you. 

What I want is for you to substantiate what you claim. If you can't or wont do that we're going to presume that yours is yet just another fashionable throw away line that doesn't mean anything, an unsupported myth that is simply meaningless rhetoric.

[balo]

Nonsense. You must have some friends high up. The whole country is based on corruption.  if I were a bookmaker I would give very low odds on this. 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, balo said:

Nonsense. You must have some friends high up. The whole country is based on corruption.  if I were a bookmaker I would give very low odds on this. 

You made a claim you can't even begin to substantiate or support other than to say the whole country is based on corruption, ergo, everything in the country must be corrupt....piffle.

[balo]

Yes if you ask most expats they will tell you that, because the Baht is always strong , no matter what , since the coup took place.  

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, balo said:

Yes if you ask most expats they will tell you that, because the Baht is always strong , no matter what , since the coup took place.  

I'm not interested in most expats, I'm asking you, you're the one who made the original statement. 

 

And you comment about the coup and the baht being strong is also nonsense, the coup was in May 2014, here's the ten year chart of USD/THB, the coup was not a factor: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

[balo]

Yes it was better in 2015 but it went down hill from there.

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, balo said:

Yes it was better in 2015 but it went down hill from there.

I guess you don't know how to read currency exchange rate graphs either, the rate at the start of 2018 was exactly the same as it was at the start of 2015!

[stament]

Seem to be getting off topic.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, stament said:

Seem to be getting off topic.

I'm not sure it is. The issue is the strength of the Baht in light of the flu virus. If that strength is believed to be manufactured we need to understand how and why because that changes the landscape considerably. Rather than talking about the perceived reasons for Baht strength, exports, trade surplus, current account etc,. the conversation needs to be about those other reasons,otherwise any forecasting is a waste of time. That's why I think it's important to bottom out these myths about the elite and them buying overseas real estate and those couple of blokes in the back room of the BOT who fake fix the exchange rate every day, just to satisfy their masters. Honestly, I'm incredulous after all these years that some people still want to go down the "it's rigged and manipulated" road, people just refuse to look at the real evidence and learn, that's why I keep demanding people explain what they mean and produce evidence, or at least a viable scenario but thus far nobody has.

[morrobay]

On 2/26/2020 at 8:01 PM, saengd said:

I'm OK to debate the value of the Thai Baht and the strengths and weaknesses of the Thai economy but I'm just not up for broad based bashing Thailand as a tourist destination because it doesn't achieve anything and is not productive, apart from which we all see different things so it's a futile debate. 

 

.

Well the shabby conditions in tourist areas noted by Kenny202 as well as seen by most residents is relevant  to the exchange rate. IE if tourism is down because of the degraded environment then less demand for the baht  should cause it to devalue but it doesent ? And the sustained overvaluation of the baht in relation to fundamentals ( as stated by Bloomberg economists) is bad for that sector. Folks will put up with alot , and there is for sure alot to put up with, if the exchange rate is good. So who is benefiting from this overvalued baht besides those who are buying property in London .... As to the challenge on how is the baht being manipulated I would make this analogy: Maybe the elite did not so much manipulate it to its present level but as the economy has degraded they sure are not doing anything to lower it. Kind of like: although if  someone did not actually  push  someone into the quicksand they sure are not about to  throw them a rescue line.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Well the shabby conditions in tourist areas noted by Kenny202 as well as seen by most residents is relevant  to the exchange rate. IE if tourism is down because of the degraded environment then less demand for the baht  should cause it to devalue but it doesent ? And the sustained overvaluation of the baht in relation to fundamentals ( as stated by Bloomberg economists) is bad for that sector. Folks will put up with alot , and there is for sure alot to put up with, if the exchange rate is good. So who is benefiting from this overvalued baht besides those who are buying property in London .... As to the challenge on how is the baht being manipulated I would make this analogy: Maybe the elite did not so much manipulate it to its present level but as the economy has degraded they sure are not doing anything to lower it. Kind of like: although if  someone did not actually  push  someone into the quicksand they sure are not about to  throw them a rescue line.   

The argument that shabby and degraded surroundings will deter tourism and lessen the demand for THB doesn't really hold water, not even polluted water!

 

Tourism is only a small part of the total export picture, it's a minor player in causing THB to increase in value. It's only when THB is purchased against USD that the value of THB increases, purchases against other currencies don't do much at all. And since only a small percentage of tourists sell USD to buy THB, the impact on the Baht is negligible. It's exports in general that cause the bigger problem where 60% of all export bills are settled in USD that is later exchanged for Baht.

 

But yes, fundamentals are over stretched at present but only by around 5%, those looking for a return to yesteryear exchange rates will be disappointed.

[JimGant]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

That's why I think it's important to bottom out these myths about the elite and them buying overseas real estate and those couple of blokes in the back room of the BOT who fake fix the exchange rate every day, just to satisfy their masters. Honestly, I'm incredulous after all these years that some people still want to go down the "it's rigged and manipulated" road, people just refuse to look at the real evidence and learn, that's why I keep demanding people explain what they mean and produce evidence, or at least a viable scenario but thus far nobody has.

Amen. That you keep dealing with the "anti junta" mentality on this forum is admirable, albeit definitely dipping into your more productive hours. Sadly, you'll never be able to win over such people with your sound economic discussions, as in their minds, Yingluck would be the superior leader because she obtained office along "democratic" lines. Sadly, democracy doesn't guarantee the winner is best for the country. Of course, today we're seeing such evidence in America, where buffoons are elected by the buffoonery masses, i.e, universal suffrage. Originally, America required voters to be of the elite (white, male, land owners,i.e., educated). That finally degraded to every swinging d**k over 18 has the vote. Maybe only allowing the elite to vote has merit -- particularly in Thailand? (Oh, shut up, you civil libertarian know-nothings.)

Edited March 6, 2020 by JimGant

[morrobay]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

The argument that shabby and degraded surroundings will deter tourism and lessen the demand for THB doesn't really hold water, not even polluted water!

 

Tourism is only a small part of the total export picture, it's a minor player in causing THB to increase in value. It's only when THB is purchased against USD that the value of THB increases, 

 

 

So all the Chinese hot money flooding into Thai financials, real estate and infrastructure projects has no effect on the baht since it is not from US dollars. Really?? 

[saengd]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

So all the Chinese hot money flooding into Thai financials, real estate and infrastructure projects has no effect on the baht since it is not from US dollars. Really?? 

Yes really.

 

If Yuan is exchanged for THB what does that do for the value of either currency? Until 2005 RMB was hard pegged to USD, subsequently RMB is valued against a basket of currencies of which USD is a major component. And since trade bills are mostly settled in USD AND RMB forms part of the IMF's SDR's reserves, the two currencies remain fairly closely aligned. THB on the other is effectively soft pegged to USD, technically it's a managed float but it means a soft peg. So selling one against the other does nothing to the value of either currency. But if either one were sold or bought against USD the picture would be very different because USD is the base currency against which all currency pairs are measured.

[saengd]

The real problem with this nonsense story about Baht manipulation by the elites is this: people read these threads in search of information about the Thai economy and currency, what's going to happen to THB they ask, will it rise or will it fall. Nobody really knows if or when it will do either. But those of us who have bothered to understand the issues that effect the strength of the Baht understand what many of the factors are that people need to keep an eye on if they want to find a probable answer.....export values, tourist volumes, current account surplus/deficit, balance of trade, capital inflows, foreign currency reserves etc etc. If you understand those things and their relationship to each other and you keep an eye on them all, chances are you'll have a pretty good idea where the value of THB is headed. 

 

But it's seriously unhelpful when people who don't understand the above and can't be bothered to try and figure it all out, spout in these threads that the value of THB is manipulated to suit the masters blah blah blah! Posters who say those things usually have no idea how currencies function and have even less idea about economics, when they are challenged to support their theory not one of them is able to do so, not a single one. But the fact that posters keep parroting that same phrase confuses people who are looking for an answer, simply because it makes them uncertain. To those confused few (and I'm not just referring to Colin here), consider these things....if THB is being manipulated:

 

- why doesn't the Western financial world know about it, if they do why aren't they creating a stink?

- why hasn't a an offshore market evolved that reflects the true value of THB, that has happened before when there were issues?

- why would the IMF and World Bank advise Thailand to operate a much greater deficit budget if it's currency was indeed not strong?

- why would Thailand risk being accused of currency manipulation if indeed their currency was already weak?

- why would BOT bond sales, denominated in THB, be oversubscribed several times as a result of overseas demand.....would you buy Thai bonds in THB knowing the face value was less than the bond was worth?

 

...and lots more similar points.

 

To those posters who say it is being manipulated, do us all a favor, put up and prove it or please, just shut up, you're only confusing people who are trying to make financial decisions and need help.

 

[morrobay]

13 hours ago, saengd said:

Yes really.

 

If Yuan is exchanged for THB what does that do for the value of either currency? 

 

When yuan is exchanged for baht it decreases supply of baht. Then subsequently the baht appreciates against the Dollar.