Here's how Thailand would respond to a 'worst case' coronavirus scenario

[Derek B]

On 2/22/2020 at 8:59 AM, Classic Ray said:

With the Chinese travel ban, Thailand seems to have been protected from most infection sources so far.

Exactly the Chinese imposed the travel ban NOT the neighbouring ASEAN countries taking the initiative and totally closing there boarders to Chinese travelers & vehicles. Many Chinese non tourists still rotating to other counties I expect.

[ramrod711]

On 2/22/2020 at 9:10 AM, ben2talk said:

I don't believe road deaths are exponentially infectios.

In a country where people believe that traffic fatalities are due to fate or the power of amulets you may be wrong.

[Misty]

15 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

You've either got it or you ain't. You can only treat the symptoms so why worry whether it's flu or COVID 19.

My interest is in the broader picture - will Thai residents travel be restricted if Thailand isn't really tracking and isolating the problem?  Selfish, but I'd still like to go home for a niece's wedding this summer.  (Israel is already refusing Thai residents, although by the official numbers it's not clear why.)

 

Anecdotally it sounds like testing in Thailand is quite limited, and it seems odd that the documented case numbers don't budge.  Yet without information, tracking and isolating, there's the risk of what's happening in South Korea, Italy or Iran being replicated here. 

 

And on Thailand's land borders, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos - all with Chinese ties - have reported no cases at all.  Which will become the next Iran, with deaths reported before any documented cases and then a rush to figure out what happened?  Can/would Thailand shut its land borders if that happens?  If not, will other countries accept Thai residents?

[Bangkok Barry]

17 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

23 deaths outside of China and starting to double rapidly so you might want to hang on to your hat as we might be in for a bit of turbulence.

 

 

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Serious,  Critical
China	76,940	+652	2,443	+98	23,101	11,477
Diamond Princess	634		2		17	27
S. Korea	602	+166	5	+3	18	9
Japan	146	+12	1		22	6
Italy	117	+38	2		2	18
Singapore	89				49	5
Hong Kong	70		2		11	6
Iran	43	+14	8	+2
Thailand	35				20	2
USA	35				6
Taiwan	28	+2	1		2	1
Australia	22	+1			11
Malaysia	22				17
Germany	16				14
Vietnam	16				15
U.A.E.	13				3	2
France	12		1		10
Macao	10				6
Canada	9				3
U.K.	9				8
Philippines	3		1		2

 

Good. Only 23 outside of China in a population of, I think. 6.4 BILLION. Okay, so a few thousand in 6.4 BILLION get sick, but hardly an epidemic enough to grip the world with fear. I've noticed it's headline news each day - except when something more interesting comes along, like the Korat shooting or the UK floods, then suddenly the virus isn't so important after all and is relegated to the inside pages. Says it all, really. It's largely contained within China with, according to your chart, nearly 77,000 cases there and not much more than 1,000 in the entire rest of the world, especially when you remove the freak number of cases on the ship where it was easily spread. A 1,000 cases, not deaths but cases, out of 6.4 BILLION people - I'm not worrying too much about that.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Bangkok Barry

[Mung]

3 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Good. Only 23 outside of China in a population of, I think. 6.4 BILLION. Okay, so a few thousand in 6.4 BILLION get sick, but hardly an epidemic enough to grip the world with fear. I've noticed it's headline news each day - except when something more interesting comes along, like the Korat shooting or the UK floods, then suddenly the virus isn't so important after all and is relegated to the inside pages. Says it all, really.

Why are you so short sighted? Some WHO experts think up to 40-70% of the global population COULD become infected over the course of a pandemic. We're talking months and years if it's not controlled, and 2-3% of the global population dead isn't a few thousand. This isn't going away soon or probably even this year

[Bangkok Barry]

2 minutes ago, Mung said:

Why are you so short sighted? Some WHO experts think up to 40-70% of the global population COULD become infected over the course of a pandemic. We're talking months and years if it's not controlled, and 2-3% of the global population dead isn't a few thousand. This isn't going away soon or probably even this year

I edited my post while you were replying, by the way. I wonder what percentage of the world population catches flu each year, and far, far more die from that. And aren't infection rates already going down in China? If it does last for a long time, as you suggest, then the economic fallout would be far greater than that of people catching a flu-like illness, as the world take steps to limit its spread. No goods exported from China which would close down businesses around the world for those companies that rely on parts from there (like the car industry), plus the massive spending and investment power of China being weakened. Entire economies in Asia being destroyed from having no Chinese tourists (already begun). Countries closing borders to prevent more than 23 people dying. All that could cause a worldwide economic downturn with who knows what financial and social consequences.

But, meanwhile, only 23 people have died in the world outside China.

[Mung]

18 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I edited my post while you were replying, by the way. I wonder what percentage of the world population catches flu each year, and far, far more die from that. And aren't infection rates already going down in China? If it does last for a long time, as you suggest, then the economic fallout would be far greater than that of people catching a flu-like illness, as the world take steps to limit its spread. No goods exported from China which would close down businesses around the world for those companies that rely on parts from there (like the car industry), plus the massive spending and investment power of China being weakened. Entire economies in Asia being destroyed from having no Chinese tourists (already begun). Countries closing borders to prevent more than 23 people dying. All that could cause a worldwide economic downturn with who knows what financial and social consequences.

But, meanwhile, only 23 people have died in the world outside China.

Influenza has around a 0.1% mortality rate, the Coronavirus has around 2-3% (at the moment, but that could rise as did the final estimate of the SARS virus, which went from 4% initially up to 9.6%) The virus has seemed to operate in waves, it almost came to a halt globally speaking, and has since seen fast outbreaks in areas outside of China. It isn't just the mortality rate that is the issue, but having entire nations locked down and what will happen to their economies, as you have stated. But you can't just allow a virus that is at least 20-30 times more deadly that influenza to just run a mock, that would be stupid.

That being said, do you actually believe the Chinese statistics? Have you seen videos from China, where people are being welded inside of their houses? Or women being beat on the streets for not wearing masks, by the government might I add? People being dragged kicking and screaming to quarantine by people in bio hazard suits. The situation there is bordering on the insane, they are spooked by something 

Edited February 24, 2020 by Mung

[FarFlungFalang]

51 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I'm not worrying too much about that.

I'm glad your not worried.I'm also not worried but I do find it hard to not follow the developments.Fair enough on the edit as you've COVID most of the points I was thinking about.As for the fatality rate the most believable prediction I can find is 1% for this SARS COV 2 virus which causes COVID 19 and the regular flu is about 0.13%.

[FarFlungFalang]

40 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

And aren't infection rates already going down in China?

Infection rates are just about the most difficult thing to predict and again the best figure is that China is testing about 5% of those infected.I can chase down a link if you want but I've posted it before.

[FarFlungFalang]

Here's a link to one of the seemingly more credible sources of info.

 

Comparing this figure with reported case numbers, the team estimate only about 1 in 19 people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan are being tested for infection and therefore being reported as confirmed cases. In turn this allowed them to estimate that the CFR of COVID-19 in people with detectable infection (including some who may never develop symptoms) is approximately 1% (uncertainty range: 0.5-4%).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

 

[KruZik]

On 2/22/2020 at 8:34 PM, christophe75 said:

 

Every sane person ask those questions. And i do not have definitive answers.

 

I'm just looking at statistics, and data that are coming up (for instance, today, the chinese media are talking about a man... who was negative for.... 37 days, but was infected).

 

What if this is much more common ? Super long incubation time ? Reminder : first it was 14 days, then 24 then... more ?

 

Again... Wuhan lockdown was on january 23. One month ago.

 

Same with numbers of chinese tourists... I mean.... 11 millions in Thailand in 2019... Just for january 2020 : almost 1 million.

 

South Korea 5,5 millions... Singapore 3,4 millions...

 

Furthermore... Pneumonia. What are the epidemiological studies ? 

 

How do you make the difference between a classic pneumonia and the Wuwflu ? And a regular flu ?

 

How a thai doctor could make the difference ? up country ?

 

And how many people would simply stay home, buying what i call the "candies bags" (you know the small packages they buy on a daily basis... at the local guru local drugsture : 1 pill of antibio, 1 pill of steroid, 1 pill of paracetamol, 1 pill of antihistamine etc. All the colors of the rainbow ! Some people buy only 1 or 2 bags.....)

 

One thing is for sure : they don't look for the virus.

 

South Korea did thousands of tests. Thailand ? We do not know. USA ? A total joke... less than 500. For a country of 327 millions people, with mega urban centers and countless flights with China (and numerous chinese communities).

 

Another proof : it's only yesterday that they said : we are going to look in Thailand for sick people.... without any "travel history"...

 

But wait... it gets better : "Thailand may need to consider screening travellers arriving from Italy for coronavirus following a sharp rise in cases in the European country, health officials said on Saturday."

 

"Fais ce que je dis, pas ce que je fais" : do as I say, not as I do.

 

The same thai authorities who cry a river when Israel dare to close the door to thai visitors...

 

We are looking, in real time, at the total collapse of global tourism.

 

Fini. Over. Vanished. It was there... And 1 month after it's simply gone. It's truely fascinating.

 

Tomorrow Italy, Iran, South Korea. Next week ?

 

I just don't know. All we can do is wait and see what happens and try to take sensible precautions in the meantime..

[metisdead]

Some posts containing unattributed content have been removed, please post a link to the source of information when posting:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

Some troll posts have been removed.

[DrTuner]

Found an article in lancet from yesterday: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext

 

'Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study'

Quote

Interpretation
The mortality of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is considerable. The survival time of the non-survivors is likely to be within 1–2 weeks after ICU admission. Older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities and ARDS are at increased risk of death. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses great strain on critical care resources in hospitals, especially if they are not adequately staffed or resourced.

Some new info in that article, the 1-2 weeks after ICU admission until death is the first concrete time frame I've seen mentioned.

 

The last paragraph does not bode well for Thailand and it's rural hospitals.

Edited February 25, 2020 by DrTuner

[DannyCarlton]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Found an article in lancet from yesterday: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext

 

'Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study'

Some new info in that article, the 1-2 weeks after ICU admission until death is the first concrete time frame I've seen mentioned.

 

The last paragraph does not bode well for Thailand and it's rural hospitals.

Not Covid-19. The outcomes may be completely different to SARS.

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Not Covid-19. The outcomes may be completely different to SARS.

The virus is called SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes is COVID-19. Thank WHO for that confusion.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

Quote

ICTV announced “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020.  This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003.  While related, the two viruses are different.   

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by DrTuner