Coronavirus, What are the Odds of getting this Virus, Really?

[mfd101]

Increasingly the experts (one in Oz yesterday, for instance) say that CV is going to be with us permanently and we're "ALL" going to get it.

 

Just like all the previous seasonal flus (which I don't think I've ever had in all my 70 years).

 

If they're right, then it's a case of Get used to it! Carry on with your life. Don't panic.

 

Once there's a vaccination, there'll certainly be a huge rush on that. Chloroquine is apparently looking helpful at the moment ... so anyone neurotic about malaria here is probably looking good.

Edited February 28, 2020 by mfd101

[daij1944]

a big part of the problem is understanding statistics. it simply is difficult to translate statistical implications into plain english. especially when the whole thing is a moving target. let me give you a simple example: the mathematical chance of winning the lottery is say a million to one (optimistically) but your brain tells you the chance is fifty-fifty -- either you win or you lose. so you buy another ticket. we've all done it.

we don't yet know the risks and the consequences of getting the virus. so we are all playing roulette one way or another.  when it's over it'll be fifty-fifty: either you got it or you didn't.

worry: whatever the actual odds are, they don't mean "yes you should worry" or "no you shouldn't worry". that's still up to you. chok dii

 

[AlQaholic]

Wearing a mask does little to prevent catching any microbe. What is important is frequently washing or disinfecting your hands, especially prior to touching eyes, mouth, nose etc. Even resting your head on your hand is risky, you end up touching your mouth sooner or later. You will be surprised how often people touch these body parts. A mask of course can prevent droplets from reaching your nose and mouth when someone in the vicinity is coughing or sneezing, but your hands and eyes will still be exposed. A infected person will decrease the chance of spreading infection by wearing a mask.

The way this thing is spreading worldwide, I am starting to suspect the virus can survive dormant on surfaces for some time.

[Jimbo2014]

Are you at risk today?  The risk is very low today.  Will you be at risk in 3 months time?  Based on current mortality rates and infection rates (R0) the answer is, very likely dependent on your age and health.  Can you do anything about it?  Not really.  Its like trying to protect against the flu.  Now that containment has almost certainly failed, the best we can do is try to stay healthy and boost your immune system.  This will likely be around for many years and will be like flu and cold season.  Now we have Covid19 season. The first years mortality rates will be highest by far after which immunity should develop.  The exception to this is if it mutates into something worse.  Then we may all be in trouble.

[Stevemercer]

I think the risk is the same as getting any sort of seasonal cold or flu. For most people the consequences will be the same. It's a new strain of flu we will all have to learn to live with. I imagine there will be a vaccine within 6 months and it will be added to the yearly 'flu shot' that many people get.

 

I'm currently in Australia visiting my Mum and Dad and am flying back to Thailand on 1 March. I'm not worried about the coronavirus, but am worried about catching a 'normal' cold and not being allowed on the plane to fly home to Thailand. The weather has been unseasonally cold here in Melbourne this summer and many people have sniffles and colds.

 

Only a few more days and I'm crossing my fingers I can get back home to Thailand. Once in Thailand I'm not really worried. We can self-quarantine on our farm if needed. I'm fit and healthy and it'll just be another cold or flu that might knock me low for a few days. The risk of death (e.g. from a cold/flu/coronavirus progressing to pneumonia) seems low for my age group.

[saengd]

I disagree that masks are not effective, if nothing else they prevent the wearer from touching their mouth. A UK newspaper this morning assessed the benefit of different types of masks, a simple mask respirator reduces the risk 78 times over not wearing a mask at all. Even a simple surgical masks reduce risk 6 times.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050587/Coronavirus-face-masks-selling-one-buy.html

 

 

[AlQaholic]

Professor Brendan Wren from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that masks will not stop people from becoming infected and may even worsen its spread. 

He said: 'The masks won't protect against the virus because it's so tiny. It is thousands of times smaller than bacteria. 

'I don't think they do any good. They are smaller than air particles for pollution that we worry about. It will simply be breathed in.'

He added that masks may make the spread of the virus more likely if they become damp. 

'They may make matters worse, [such as] if they become damp. If you have a cold or sneezing, sneezing into a mask can make matters worse.'  

He added: 'The main purpose is a psychological thing they make people more aware but physically they are not a prevention'. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050587/Coronavirus-face-masks-selling-one-buy.html

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, AlQaholic said:

Professor Brendan Wren from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that masks will not stop people from becoming infected and may even worsen its spread. 

He said: 'The masks won't protect against the virus because it's so tiny. It is thousands of times smaller than bacteria. 

'I don't think they do any good. They are smaller than air particles for pollution that we worry about. It will simply be breathed in.'

He added that masks may make the spread of the virus more likely if they become damp. 

'They may make matters worse, [such as] if they become damp. If you have a cold or sneezing, sneezing into a mask can make matters worse.'  

He added: 'The main purpose is a psychological thing they make people more aware but physically they are not a prevention'. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050587/Coronavirus-face-masks-selling-one-buy.html

If that was the case medical staff in hospitals wouldn't wear them. I believe when the good doctors is saying that masks aren't effective he is referring to surgical or paper masks rather than N95 masks or greater.

 

They only need to reduce the risk by 1 in order for them to be useful.

Edited February 28, 2020 by saengd

[DannyCarlton]

15 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

If you're under 60 the regular flu has a higher fatality rate by far. I guess we'll see how many of the ol timers on tvf stop contributing to the discourse which will give you an idea on it's effects here...

So not true. Mortality rate for flu = 0.2%. mortality rate for Covid-19 = 2% (and that's a conservative estimate) i.e. Covid-19 at least 10 times more deadly than flu.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by DannyCarlton

[IAMHERE]

15 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

If you're under 60 the regular flu has a higher fatality rate by far. I guess we'll see how many of the ol timers on tvf stop contributing to the discourse which will give you an idea on it's effects here...

I sure you're writing about the real dead ones and not the just brain dead ones.????

The infection rate is a real puzzle at this time, what with the Japan lady developing covid-19 a 2nd time. Re-occurrence or just went dormant for a while. So far (other than mass hysteria) this is just the beginning of a regular flu season that was expected. Unless there is more to this than a natural flu from pigs or bats that would make it unnatural.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, IAMHERE said:

I sure you're writing about the real dead ones and not the just brain dead ones.????

The infection rate is a real puzzle at this time, what with the Japan lady developing covid-19 a 2nd time. Re-occurrence or just went dormant for a while. So far (other than mass hysteria) this is just the beginning of a regular flu season that was expected. Unless there is more to this than a natural flu from pigs or bats that would make it unnatural.

I see a dog has tested positive for the virus in Hong Kong, the newspaper didn't say if it was a young dog or an old one or whether it might be brain dead.

[Proboscis]

16 hours ago, CGW said:

The odds on surviving the virus appears to be highly dependant on what "age group" you are in, how well your immune system is working and exposure, given that, I consider myself to be at a very low risk of contagion!

If I was 80+ in lousy health and a smoker I would be worried!

 

Actually the biggest issue is how you react to the viral infection. That appears to be a matter of a genetic lottery and there appears to be no connection to age. The chances of reacting badly is about 20% (once you get infected). The chances of dying, given you are in the high reaction cohort (already infected) is about 20%. So, overall the chances of dying for the infected population is about 2% but this is not entirely clear given the lack of stats and concerns about data gathering.

 

Back to the reaction cohort, clearly if you have a prior condition will skew the odds against you as a severe reaction to the virus will put a load on your organs, especially heart and lungs. But age will only be one factor. If you are a non-smoking exercising 80 year old with no pre-existing conditions but react to the virus, you could have a better chance of survival than a 30 year old heavy smoker stressed out desk jockey who never exercises and who reacts severely. 

 

The concern is that the R(zero) for this virus is higher than flu. This number measures the ease of transmission from an infected person to another. It means that without special measures, more people will get the virus than the flu. Since there is a flu vaccine but no coronoavirus vaccine, the latter will infect everyone in its path whereas flu encounters those with immunity.

 

The really big concern is that we do not know how this virus will develop over time as it infects more and more populations. How it behaves now may not be an indicator for how it would behave next year. The longer it hangs around and the more people it infects, the greater are the chances for mutation.

 

The hopeful news is that while the virus is travelling fast in countries where it is cold now (Korea, China, North Italy), this often changes when the weather turns warm/hot - hot weather frequently reduces the R(zero) of viral infections. This may be the reason why places like Thailand have been spared. But one should not bank on this behaviour in a virus as this one might be different. Besides, while it is hot in one hemisphere, it is cold in the other one. And so the virus might just stay alive in one while R(zero) reduces in the other and it could just yoyo between the two each year.

[TheFishman1]

I just heard a Doctor on CNN SAYING IF YOUR HEALTHY DONT WEAR A MASK CONFUSING AT BEST

[gargamon]

31 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

So not true. Mortality rate for flu = 0.2%. mortality rate for Covid-19 = 2% (and that's a conservative estimate) i.e. Covid-19 at least 10 times more deadly than flu.

 

 

Good info. Let's clarify it for some who may be mathematically challenged (or get their news from Fox). 1000 people with the flu, 1-2 will die. 1000 with covid, 20 will die.

With Trump and his minions not allowing testing at the state level it's difficult to believe any numbers of infections. California has thousands under watch that they can't test.

Also, when the early evacuees from China arrived, they didn't even use hazmat suits, etc. when they moved them to quarantine. This has lead to the virus being released to the community in California.

 

Its much worse than we know.

[Fairynuff]

15 hours ago, soalbundy said:

you've got a bigger chance of getting stabbed in London

And god help you if you work for a company in the US and someone there gets sacked.

[Tony125]

16 hours ago, iLuvThai said:

It is appointed unto man once to die......thankfully we don't

know when that is.....so sadly people go around in fear of living.????????

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S.

[Fairynuff]

15 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

they say the virus may not thrive in warmer locales.

By that rationale there shouldn’t be any cases in Singapore, but......

[elgenon]

I saw on MSNBC that no child has contracted it. Are you a child? And that 2% of those who contracted it died. Nothing on how likely you are to get it except, if say 1 person infects 5 others, you can see the number infected will snowball.

[Fairynuff]

A few things are very clear about the virus. To varying degrees ALL governments are not being honest about the situation. They DON'T want you to panic.

The printed press WANT you to panic because you’ll buy more papers.

[MadMuhammad]

I’m not sure who or what to believe but I had Influenza Type B & pneumonia last year and pulled through in 10 days so I guess even if I do contract it at some stage my body is a pretty good fighter. 
 

On a side note here is some footage apparently coming out of china If anyone is interested 

 

 

[Fairynuff]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

I disagree that masks are not effective, if nothing else they prevent the wearer from touching their mouth. A UK newspaper this morning assessed the benefit of different types of masks, a simple mask respirator reduces the risk 78 times over not wearing a mask at all. Even a simple surgical masks reduce risk 6 times.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050587/Coronavirus-face-masks-selling-one-buy.html

 

 

Daily Mail. Enough said

[Henryford]

30,000 deaths in Thailand road accidents. ZERO Coronavirus deaths. I know which one i am more worried about.

[Max69xl]

18 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

You're the one wearing a mask, saying don't worry.

He said 60% were wearing masks. Come to Jomtien or even Pattaya. The percentage is VERY low. And again, masks are not for healthy people. It's the other way around. 

[AJS150654]

in the riginal post it states "Australia my homeland jut went to pandemic level saying that anyone returning from south-east Asia is to be self quarantined". Not quite right, this is what I have just read in news about Australia moving to "Pandemic Preparedness";

 

* Foreign nationals - excluding permanent residents - who have been in mainland China will not be allowed to enter Australia for 14 days from the time they left mainland China.

* Australian citizens and permanent residents will still be able to enter, as will their immediate family members (spouses, legal guardians and dependants only).

* People who have been in contact with someone confirmed to have coronavirus must self-isolate for 14 days from the time they were in contact with that person.

[Iron Tongue]

You're going to be passing through airports seven times and on sitting in multiple airplanes 

 

Let's just say you have a higher chance than I will.

[JimmyJ]

OP - "I am currently in Vietnam until March 5th when my wife and I will fly to Bangkok then onto her home in Chiang Rai. April 28 I leave Thailand for home in Canada with 2 stops in China."

 

CM today is #5  worst air in the world and you are planning to spend its 2 worst air quality months in the north where CR's air often as bad as CM's.

 

 

Good strategy to avoid worring about the virus:

You won't have time to worry about the virus - too busy worrying about the PM2.5 particulates which will enter your lungs and bloodstream.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by JimmyJ

[CygnusX1]

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

The first years mortality rates will be highest by far after which immunity should develop.  The exception to this is if it mutates into something worse.  Then we may all be in trouble.

I don’t think it’s so much a case of immunity developing, more a case of the virus becoming milder, the logic being that those infected with a strain causing severe symptoms will stay at home, whereas those with a strain causing only mild symptoms will still go out as usual and have contact with more people. Hence, the less dangerous strains will be selected for over the more dangerous ones.

[canthai55]

2% of people who get it die ?

Where did this "fact" come from - the Media ?

555

[spidermike007]

The risks of getting the virus here are very low. Wear a mask on public transport, and carry around a strong hand sanitizer. Use it every hour or so, and wash your hands as often as you can. It is mostly about hand to mouth/nose/eyes transmission, unless you are living with someone who has the virus, or standing next to someone who is infected who sneezes or coughs. But, so far it appears the infection rate here is very low. Otherwise it would be soaring right now. 40 total, is remarkable, if indeed that is the truth. Let us hope it is.

[Miami007]

Masks should be worn by people who have a respotatory infection to prevent the sick people from infecting others.

 

Masks will not protect a healthy person - even N95 masks need to be fitted properly. 

 

On the plus side: the US president had announced that the virus will disappear like a miracle (in April) and his economic advisor said that "everything was under control" - sounds familiar some leaders in SE Asia, doesn't it?