Coronavirus, What are the Odds of getting this Virus, Really?

[ChipButty]

18 hours ago, iLuvThai said:

I'm actually only wearing the mask becuase it makes other happy including my wife.????????

Same with me my wife on my case to wear it

[NCC1701A]

sad that this topic is headed in the wrong direction.

the problem is not about getting the virus.

it is about living through a pandemic.

we are in the very early stages of a world wide pandemic.

understand what that means and prepare accordingly.  

good luck everybody. 

[DannyCarlton]

14 minutes ago, canthai55 said:

2% of people who get it die ?

Where did this "fact" come from - the Media ?

555

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

 

"Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3%"

 

Plenty more references where that came from. 555

[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

A few things are very clear about the virus. To varying degrees ALL governments are not being honest about the situation. They DON'T want you to panic.

The printed press WANT you to panic because you’ll buy more papers.

Same applies to any news media .... click click click ... more hits more revenue ...

[ChouDoufu]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

By that rationale there shouldn’t be any cases in Singapore, but......

"they" sometimes make misteaks, postulating theories with limited data.

 

you might argue singapore would be a special case given that it's a major transportation hub with about 1000 flights per day wedged into a small area with a population of 5 million.

 

 

[khunPer]

Just for comparison.

From January 1st til end of August 2018 there were recorded 89,846 influenza  cases with 12 deaths in Thailand, during same period in 2017 it was 106,415 confirmed cases with 29 deaths.

 

Quote

Influenza-associated mortality in Thailand, 2006–2011

Results

From 2006 to 2011, the average annual influenza-associated mortality per 100 000 persons was 4·0 (95% CI: −18 to 26). Eighty-three percent of influenza-associated deaths occurred among persons aged > 65 years. The average annual rate of influenza-associated deaths was 0·7 (95% CI: −8·2 to 10) per 100 000 population for person aged <65 years and 42 (95% CI: −137 to 216) for person aged ≥ 65 years.

Full US National Library of Medicine scientific report "Influenza-associated mortality in Thailand, 2006–2011".

 

Source: WORLDHEALTHRANKINGS.

 

 

[natway09]

The two points I would make are

Believe that the odds of survival if you do get it are pretty good if you are a normal healthy person

with a reasonable immune system & no lung infections etc. Anyone with HIV should take extra precautions as any old & frail persons.

Nearly 8,000  children under 12 die every day of starvation & another 18,000 adults die of starvation also,

Never hear this on our news (man's inhumanity to man syndrome) just to keep it in perspective.

Stay safe, keep body, hands & face clean (Dr recommends good old Dettol)

Cheers

[natway09]

P.S. These flying machines are not helping containment.

Fly only out of necessity

[iLuvThai]

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

Are you that ugly?

Yeah but that goes without sayng.

[Dumbastheycome]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

sad that this topic is headed in the wrong direction.

the problem is not about getting the virus.

it is about living through a pandemic.

we are in the very early stages of a world wide pandemic.

understand what that means and prepare accordingly.  

good luck everybody. 

I can agree. Not so much as in becoming victim of infection but in thinking about about and preparing for the possible outcome of the disruptions of economic ructions.

[iLuvThai]

2 hours ago, JimmyJ said:

CM today is #5  worst air in the world and you are planning to spend its 2 worst air quality months in the north where CR's air often as bad as CM's

I understand what your saying, but my wifes home is 40 mintues from Chiang Rai city and it's not as bad in her village until a neighbour burns whatever they burn.????????

[Max69xl]

FYI: Every year more than 300,000 (the real number is unknown) dies worldwide from what we call "the flu". This is not something everybody knows. So, the amount of deaths connected to the Coronavirus is ridiculously low compared to deaths caused by "the flu". 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Max69xl

[madmen]

12 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

FYI: Every year more than 300,000 (the real number is unknown) dies worldwide from what we call "the flu". This is not something everybody knows. So, the amount of deaths connected to the Coronavirus is ridiculously low compared to deaths caused by "the flu". 

Just watched an excellent doco that clearly showed the stats and more people die from Corona PER HEAD than those with the flu also its much more aggressive. 

 

That's the danger of if it gets out of control 

Vid shows people lying dead on the footpath 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by madmen

[Max69xl]

8 minutes ago, madmen said:

Just watched an excellent doco that clearly showed the stats and more people die from Corona PER HEAD than those with the flu also its much more aggressive. 

 

That's the danger of if it gets out of control 

Vid shows people lying dead on the footpath 

 

More people dies from the Coronavirus than from "the flu"? You do understand the number >300,000 every year? That's >3 million in 10 years. You seem a bit naive. So,keep watching TV wearing your mask,and "maybe" you'll survive. 

[JimmyJ]

1 minute ago, Max69xl said:

More people dies from the Coronavirus than from "the flu"? You do understand the number >300,000 every year? That's >3 million in 10 years. You seem a bit naive. So,keep watching TV wearing your mask,and "maybe" you'll survive. 

The % of people infected with C Virus resulting in death is higher than same for flu.

[emptypockets]

5 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

What really are the odds of getting this coronavirus.

 

You are asking a question which, specifically to you, is difficult to answer.  We need to know about your lifestyle and specifically where you are going, ie public places with many people, eg hospitals, shopping malls, airports, etc.

 

For example: the US CDC has a web page that gives specific event (sexual intercourse with an individual who is HIV positive) life time probabilities of contracting HIV from a person who is HIV positive.  Factors such as type of sexual act and the HIV positive person's HIV viral load need to be taken into account.  If you consult the CDC data, you will see that the probability of contracting HIV from a single sexual act is, in some cases, very very low, less that 0.001% (for memory); in other cases it is high, about 5% (for memory).

 

If you daily frequent areas where there are people with the coronavirus, your chances of getting it are very high.  Remember, the virus is transmitted via water molecules, so any one with the virus who sneezes, perspires, or other wise expells water molecules from their body is a real threat (unless your body is 100% covered with protective attire).  The WHO suggests that a safe distance from people with the virus is about 1 metre.  Fask masks REDUCE, but do not elimate the threat; any water molecule from an infected peson which comes into contact with any part of your body are a threat.

Safe distance one metre from an infected person.

 

Do these geniuses tell us how to identify a virus carrier if they show no symptoms and look the same as anyone else?

[sanemax]

4 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Safe distance one metre from an infected person.

 

Do these geniuses tell us how to identify a virus carrier if they show no symptoms and look the same as anyone else?

Of course they cannot tell you how to identify  a virus carrier if they have no symptoms

[emptypockets]

3 hours ago, Tony125 said:

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S.

Why do you feel the need to put random words in bold font?

[emptypockets]

2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Of course they cannot tell you how to identify  a virus carrier if they have no symptoms

Which was exactly my point.

From the post I was replying to:

 

The WHO suggests that a safe distance from people with the virus is about 1 metre.  

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by emptypockets

[KhunBENQ]

1 minute ago, sanemax said:

Of course they cannot tell you how to identify  a virus carrier if they have no symptoms

I follow the news about the virus in Germany, a fairly developed country.

And they clearly say it makes no sense to do random testing particularly without symptoms.

And even more: if they should test every person with typical cold/flu symptoms without specific travel/contact history the health care system would break down.

The test is labor intensive and expensive (about 300 Euro/10000 Baht).

[DannyCarlton]

5 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Of course they cannot tell you how to identify  a virus carrier if they have no symptoms

Shifty eyes is my benchmark.

[Krataiboy]

21 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

What we have to go on is expert opinions (and President Trump) and this is what they are saying. With its current virulence and we are almost certainly in a pandemic situation then estimates from them are that 40 - 70 % of the population are likely to get it.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

 

This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.

What makes this one perhaps harder to control than SARS is that it may be possible to transmit before you are sick.

I think we should be prepared for the equivalent of a very, very bad flu season, or maybe the worst-ever flu season in modern times.
Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 11, 2020

Could that by any chance be the same Harvard University with dodgy biological research links to China?

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

 

[emptypockets]

4 hours ago, elgenon said:

I saw on MSNBC that no child has contracted it. Are you a child? And that 2% of those who contracted it died. Nothing on how likely you are to get it except, if say 1 person infects 5 others, you can see the number infected will snowball.

Using those numbers i.e 1 on day 1, 5 on day 2, 25 on day 3, 125 on day 4 etc then whole world would be infected between days 15 and 16 On day 15 the number is 6,203,515,625.

Thankfully it isn't spreading like that, or we all would have been infected a month ago.

[emptypockets]

4 hours ago, MadMuhammad said:

I’m not sure who or what to believe but I had Influenza Type B & pneumonia last year and pulled through in 10 days so I guess even if I do contract it at some stage my body is a pretty good fighter. 
 

On a side note here is some footage apparently coming out of china If anyone is interested 

 

 

FullSizeRender.mov FullSizeRender.mov FullSizeRender.mov

Looks like someone has fallen down some stairs carrying a suitcase.

[emptypockets]

23 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Shifty eyes is my benchmark.

That's the Pattaya barstool dwelling expat demographic taken care of!

[Ventenio]

I would say this virus has gotten the attention of BILLIONS of people; locking down some of the biggest cities in the world, wiping out trillions in wealth, changing how hundreds of millions live their lives....

 

So, I'm gonna ask you this one for my boy Clint.....  Do you feel lucky?

[Jimbo2014]

4 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

I don’t think it’s so much a case of immunity developing, more a case of the virus becoming milder, the logic being that those infected with a strain causing severe symptoms will stay at home, whereas those with a strain causing only mild symptoms will still go out as usual and have contact with more people. Hence, the less dangerous strains will be selected for over the more dangerous ones.

Spot on.  Building resistance would only occur over generations as those with less susceptibility would have increased survival rates.  You are correct this a milder form of the virus is a more likely outcome. :).    However we must bear in mind that there is much we do not know about the virus that may influence this likely outcome.  If 80% of people have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic and can still transmit the virus then a deadlier version could still be likely to emerge that only affects 20% of the population.  Likewise if the period to symptoms is 2 weeks and the R0 is high enough, it may provide a sufficient window for even a deadly version of the virus to spread.  

Edited February 28, 2020 by Jimbo2014

[Chrysaora]

23 hours ago, iLuvThai said:

I leave Thailand for home in Canada with 2 stops in China.

Send me your details so I can buy an insurance policy for you with me as the beneficiary.  

 

2 stops in China?  Are you on a dare?  And how will you escape the quarantine that should befall you for stopping in China?

[DannyCarlton]

31 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

I would say this virus has gotten the attention of BILLIONS of people; locking down some of the biggest cities in the world, wiping out trillions in wealth, changing how hundreds of millions live their lives....

 

So, I'm gonna ask you this one for my boy Clint.....  Do you feel lucky?

I don't feel lucky and have changed my lifestyle....slightly. More use of hand gel and not visiting places with large congregations, shopping malls, cinemas, et al. Not using public transport either. Doesn't cause me much angst as i rarely visted any of those places.

 

Still visiting my local, small and perfectly formed, bar though and interacting with a limited number of small and perfectly formed ladies. Giving the ones with hacking coughs a wide berth, but, again, I always did!

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, KhunBENQ said:

I follow the news about the virus in Germany, a fairly developed country.

And they clearly say it makes no sense to do random testing particularly without symptoms.

And even more: if they should test every person with typical cold/flu symptoms without specific travel/contact history the health care system would break down.

The test is labor intensive and expensive (about 300 Euro/10000 Baht).

And if and when it hits Thailand to any serious outbreak degree - who's going to stump up the ten grand + hospital fees for a test?

 

Most farangs I know would probably sit it out, and, as for Thai people unless the cost is covered by the government hospitals - so would they. i could envisage many villages/town communities quarantined for several weeks if an local outbreak occurs.  

 

Hence, when my carer mentioned - for the first time this morning - Ginseng as an immunity against Coronavirus - even as a hermit - I cannot thrive on homegrown Thai plant roots and herbs - or rice, alone. I'm already stocking up on frozen fruit and veggies, and a variety of canned beans and chickpeas.