Coronavirus wreaks financial havoc as infections near 100,000

[snoop1130]

Coronavirus wreaks financial havoc as infections near 100,000

By Lawrence White, Dan Whitcomb

 

A man is seen wearing a protective face mask at Waterloo station in London, Britain, March 6, 2020. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

 

LONDON/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Business districts around the world began to empty and stock markets tumbled on Friday as the number of coronavirus infections neared 100,000 and the economic damage wrought by the outbreak intensified.

 

An increasing number of people faced a new reality as many were asked to stay home from work, schools were closed, large gatherings and events canceled, stores emptied of staples like toiletries and water, and face masks a common sight.

 

In London, Europe’s financial capital, the Canary Wharf district was unusually quiet. S&P Global’s large office stood empty after the company sent its 1,200 staff home, while HSBC has asked around 100 people to work from home after a worker tested positive for the illness. 

 

In New York, meanwhile, JPMorgan divided its team between central locations and a secondary site in New Jersey while Goldman Sachs sent some traders to nearby secondary offices in Greenwich, Connecticut and Jersey City.

 

The outbreak has radiated across the United States, surfacing in at least four new states plus San Francisco.

 

More than 2,000 people were stranded on the Grand Princess cruise ship after it was barred from returning to port in San Francisco because at least 35 people aboard developed flu-like symptoms. Test kits were delivered at sea to the vessel.

 

Moves by some major economies including the United States to cut interest rates and pledge billions of dollars to fight the epidemic have done little to allay fears about the spread of the virus and the widening economic fallout.

 

SINKING MARKETS

 

European stocks continued their slide after the Japanese market dropped to a six-month low, with 97% of shares on the Tokyo exchange’s main board in the red.

 

Airline and travel stocks have been among the worst hit as people canceled non-essential travel.

 

“If this really ramps up, we could see a lot more kitchen- sinking updates from the travel industry and airlines,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. “What’s impressive about the current move is it probably understates the degree of disruption we could be facing across the U.S. and Europe.”

 

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR fell to a record low of 0.7650% as investors sought safe havens.

 

More than 98,000 people have been infected in over 85 countries and over 3,300 people have died, according to a Reuters tally. Mainland China, where the outbreak began, has accounted for more than 3,000 deaths, while the toll in Italy stood at 148.

 

At current rates, the number of confirmed cases of the virus will surpass 100,000 on Friday.

 

In the United States, the world’s economic powerhouse, at least 57 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed as the virus struck for the first time in Colorado, Maryland, Tennessee and Texas, as well as San Francisco in California. Some 230 people have been infected in total, and 12 have died.

 

Google (GOOGL.O), Facebook, Amazon (AMZN.O), and Microsoft (MSFT.O) advised employees in the Seattle area to work from home, after some caught the virus. The companies’ work-from-home recommendation will affect more than 100,000 people in the area.

 

The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed an $8.3 billion bill to combat the outbreak, joining a slew of countries including China and South Korea in bolstering their war chests.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-06

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[YetAnother]

i suggest we all make anutin the global leader/master in this fight; sure he will propose that we all wear half masks; no worries, we just cut em all up; double the volume

[Bluespunk]

41 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

deleted 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Bluespunk

[Ian Nagle]

How many people have died from other illnesses since the Covid-19 became big news?

[URMySunshine]

My gut feelings are markets halved and then a decade long global depression. Gold who knows - things will be more important than money or proxy money. That said I'm looking at the FTSE and will probably buy when it dips under 6000. This is collectively like 10 black swans all at once. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by URMySunshine

[White Christmas13]

1 hour ago, Ian Nagle said:

How many people have died from other illnesses since the Covid-19 became big news?

What a silly question, so you like to put all other illnesses in one basked, this virus is on top of all other

illness get real.

[TheDark]

2 hours ago, Ian Nagle said:

How many people have died from other illnesses since the Covid-19 became big news?

Since the start, let's say it was December 8th, there has been approximately 3000 deaths so far. 

 

During that almost 100 day period 3000 people have died. That makes about 30 people per day.

 

Now, if we think how many people die in a year, one estimate says it's 57 million people. Dividing that 57 million per year by 365, we get 156164 persons per day. That 150.00 people who die each day, simply because they get old, they have other illnesses, encounter violences etc. etc. 

 

At this current situation we compare 30 people to 150.000 people as a factual daily death rate. Miniscule amount.

The problem is that none of us knows if the Coronavirus is one day going to surplus the common deathrate. That's the basis of fear at the moment.

 

 

[URMySunshine]

7 minutes ago, TheDark said:

Since the start, let's say it was December 8th, there has been approximately 3000 deaths so far. 

 

During that almost 100 day period 3000 people have died. That makes about 30 people per day.

 

Now, if we think how many people die in a year, one estimate says it's 57 million people. Dividing that 57 million per year by 365, we get 156164 persons per day. That 150.00 people who die each day, simply because they get old, they have other illnesses, encounter violences etc. etc. 

 

At this current situation we compare 30 people to 150.000 people as a factual daily death rate. Miniscule amount.

The problem is that none of us knows if the Coronavirus is one day going to surplus the common deathrate. That's the basis of fear at the moment.

 

 

I don't think you fully appreciate exponential growth rate. We pretty much have the data now to model what will happen and when and when we need to apply extreme lockdown to try and stem it's spread. It's going to be a bumpy old ride for sure. 

 

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/asia-pacific/1580327226-analysis-at-current-rate-china-virus-could-infect-over-25-000-by-februar

Edited March 6, 2020 by URMySunshine

[TheDark]

16 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

I don't think you fully appreciate exponential growth rate.

 

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/asia-pacific/1580327226-analysis-at-current-rate-china-virus-could-infect-over-25-000-by-februar

I actually do. I also understand the story of the inventor of the chess game and his ask for reward, to make sure his emperor would get a gasp of math.

 

While I thought this virus was going to kill perhaps 100's of thousands of people worldwide. Infecting few billions of people. I start to believe it's deathtol is going to be limited to something like 80.000 people overall.

 

Viruses are smart or rather lucky to replicate and differentiate quickly. Humans are faster to figure out how to stop these viruses to kill people. 

 

So 80.000 is my estimate of the people who will be killed by this virus. That's 27 times more than the current number of 3.000,  and that's also number is only 50% of deaths on any average day in the world.

Edited March 6, 2020 by TheDark

[URMySunshine]

15 minutes ago, TheDark said:

I actually do. I also understand the story of the inventor of the chess game and his ask for reward, to make sure his emperor would get a gasp of math.

 

While I thought this virus was going to kill perhaps 100's of thousands of people worldwide. Infecting few billions of people. I start to believe it's deathtol is going to be limited to something like 80.000 people overall.

 

Viruses are smart or rather lucky to replicate and differentiate quickly. Humans are faster to figure out how to stop these viruses to kill people. 

 

So 80.000 is my estimate of the people who will be killed by this virus. That's 27 times more than the current number of 3.000,  and that's also number is only 50% of deaths on any average day in the world.

Well obviously I hope you are right and I am wrong. Let's reconvene in a month assuming both of us survive !

[Bluespunk]

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

More than 98,000 people have been infected in over 85 countries and over 3,300 people have died

So more than 3% death rate. How does that compare to other infectious diseases?

[TheDark]

9 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

So more than 3% death rate. How does that compare to other infectious diseases?

Those numbers are amon tested cases. The real numbers of infected people are much higher. 

 

Death rate really starts climbing only when people are 70+ years old. 

[Traubert]

Talking percentages doesn't tell the story.

 

The amount of corpses does. Some diseases are easy to catch, some aren't. In the event, does it make a difference what kills you? Something is definitely going to.

 

More people die at over 70? Well, well well, blow me down, I never knew that. ????

[Bluespunk]

33 minutes ago, TheDark said:

Those numbers are amon tested cases. The real numbers of infected people are much higher. 

 

Death rate really starts climbing only when people are 70+ years old. 

If the real number of infected is unknown, does it not follow the death rate is likewise?

 

Not arguing with your point about the age range where most are dying, but it seems like a lot are dying. 

3000+ on a world wide scale isn’t going to bring society to its knees, the panic around it all may though. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Bluespunk
Too many thoughs

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

Health care policy analyst Chris Meekins said he suspects that official Chinese statistics on coronavirus infections are "really a fraction" of the total number of people who actually contracted the disease; partly because the country has a long history of not giving information about its public health crises.

[Chazar]

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

A man is seen wearing a protective face mask at Waterloo station in London,

 and the rest are  not.........so what!

[Chazar]

59 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Well obviously I hope you are right and I am wrong. Let's reconvene in a month assuming both of us survive !

just dont drive on a Thai  road is  better advice

[TheDark]

49 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

If the real number of infected is unknown, does it not follow the death rate is likewise?

 

Not arguing with your point about the age range where most are dying, but it seems like a lot are dying. 

3000+ on a world wide scale isn’t going to bring society to its knees, the panic around it all may though. 

With limited data, we can assume that the death rate increases hugely with age. Italy is one of the oldest nations. Elderly people contributes to their death rate which so far has been in around 8%probably way more. Meanwhile South Korea has shown far less. aggressivity around her neighbours. 

 

This is also due South Korea has tested far more people than any other country, except China. 

 

It's likely that Italy is nowhere near the numbers of infected people. The virus has already spread to perhaps 1% of the Italian population, which means 70.000 people. And this is just the beginning.

 

I see no reason why the virus would not infect us all after 1 or 2 reasons.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by TheDark

[URMySunshine]

Be under no illusion this is war pure and simple. 

 

'This is war': Doctor leading search for coronavirus vaccine says it's the most frightening disease he's ever encountered as second British victim is confirmed and number of UK cases rises to 164

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8082855/PM-pledges-extra-46m-coronavirus-vaccine-research.html

Edited March 6, 2020 by URMySunshine

[DaRoadrunner]

[rickudon]

So what is the reality if the current exponential growth continues? Let's leave China out as they seem to have some degree of control with their draconian quarantines ( if they are being honest). 

So that gives us 23,000 cases in the rest of the world. 3 months ago, China had maybe less than 10 cases, now 80,000. So their exponential growth rate was X 8,000 in 3 months. Apply that to the rest of the world and you get 23,000 x 8,000  ........ = 180 million cases. That's why this is no minor event. With no controls, and another couple of months and it will have infected nearly everyone. Theoretically, we could have a couple of hundred million dead. Probably not that bad, but it MIGHT be. Personally i think that the half hearted efforts of the developed world will just delay the height of the pandemic until next year, but not stop it.

 

One silver lining - it will solve all those pension fund deficits in the developed world .....

 

 

[URMySunshine]

7 minutes ago, rickudon said:

So what is the reality if the current exponential growth continues? Let's leave China out as they seem to have some degree of control with their draconian quarantines ( if they are being honest). 

So that gives us 23,000 cases in the rest of the world. 3 months ago, China had maybe less than 10 cases, now 80,000. So their exponential growth rate was X 8,000 in 3 months. Apply that to the rest of the world and you get 23,000 x 8,000  ........ = 180 million cases. That's why this is no minor event. With no controls, and another couple of months and it will have infected nearly everyone. Theoretically, we could have a couple of hundred million dead. Probably not that bad, but it MIGHT be. Personally i think that the half hearted efforts of the developed world will just delay the height of the pandemic until next year, but not stop it.

 

One silver lining - it will solve all those pension fund deficits in the developed world .....

 

 

There will be no recovery in the markets in the foreseeable in fact the exact opposite I fear. 

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html#

Edited March 7, 2020 by URMySunshine

[sirineou]

32 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

There will be no recovery in the markets in the foreseeable in fact the exact opposite I fear. 

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html#

Or Summertime will slow the transmission rate, and/or a vaccine will be developed.

Also don't discount  enhanced treatment, and that most cases will not require hospitalisation.  

 

[rickudon]

Develop a vaccine, test a vaccine, scale up production for world demand - about 18 months. A bit late.

[URMySunshine]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-live-updates-australia-sick-doctor-us-cruise-ship-cases-mike-pence

 

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

 

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even imagine?

 

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

 

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.