300-400 suspected new coronavirus infections investigated in Thailand every day

[smedly]

36 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

do nto think that was a graph showing all the cases of viral pneumonia in the country

I wish I could find the graph posted here on TVF about a week to 10 days ago - it specifically said viral pneumonia

[SunsetT]

6 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

Have the lackluster Thai government been shamed into actually doing something because of the virility of posters on Thai Visa I  wonder???

Not sure about their virility....555

[Toany]

Of the 300 - 400 suspected, how many are tested and what are the results? This information is never given.  Maybe very few are tested!

If you don't test people, then you will not have many cases if Covid-19.  Just a lot of people with viral Pneumonia

Edited March 7, 2020 by Toany

[christophe75]

30 minutes ago, rabas said:

PUI testing explained?

 

Before March 3 they were reporting only the number of PUI and 'confirmed' cases ~45.

On March 3, they started reporting how many a) tested negative, and b) were 'awaiting test results'.

 

As of March 6 there are 4234 PUI persons under investigation:

  -- Recovered, returned home  = 2442

  -- Hospitalized, being treated  = 1726

Testing:

   Test result is negative = 2411

   Awaiting test results  =  1775

 

Why, is the number of 'awaiting test results' almost equal the number begin treated, and negative results equal to those cured? Why are there so many awaiting results now that they have fast PCR testing?

 

They don't release hospitalized patients until they test negative, so probably they don't report the test results until a patient is cured. When all is done they 'report' the final negative result. That's Thai style, why report something unnecessary?

 

 

You describe perfectly one of the several manipulations used by the authorities.

 

For instance, from january 25 to february 2, they gave "pending results" and "total lab results : other" (AKA negative : normal flu, etc.)

Then they stopped.

 

From february 1 to february 10 they gave what was a very precious indicator : "patients in isolation room" (precious because if someone is in isolation room, his case is severe).

Then they stopped
 

There is only one constant in those reports : to biase, to deceive, to gain time, to save face, to cut the numbers, to manipulate public perception etc.

 

Remember the infected guy who arrived from italy a few days ago ? He was tested VERY QUICKLY.

 

So the idea that they can't test the 1631 "undergoing treatment"... is ridiculous.

 

THEY DON'T WANT TO TEST THEM.

Edited March 7, 2020 by christophe75

[Artisi]

37 minutes ago, xkkpafi said:

 

Apparently Vice President Pence's solution is to pray. At least Thailand is not that stupid.

Nope, Thai's just add another amulet to their gold chain. 

[metisdead]

Posts containing unattributed content have been removed.  Posts containing screenshots from some site have been removed as a screen shot is not a valid link.  Please include a link to the source of information when posting.

 

[NanLaew]

3 hours ago, sahibji said:

eerie that there is no mention of those arriving from china - would they be isolated or not?

Arrived yesterday 3 P.M. at Suvarnabhumi on Finnair via Helsinki. Noticed the very large queues at the Health Check desks, mostly if not all Asian passengers and there was plenty of them. We were not directed to join the queue as it appears that only certain passengers from certain flights originating from certain countries are escorted to these health desks for checks before being allowed to enter the Immigration halls that weren't busy. Took only 20 minutes from getting off the plane at the gate to getting baggage and exiting Customs.

[humbug]

2 hours ago, christophe75 said:

2 more cases... snap.... 2 Thai coming back from... Italy.

 

Too bad.

 

Total (do not laugh) : 50 (even Malaysia, a very cold country, tops us with 83 cases)

 

Thailand su su !

just putting on hold my ski gear ready for those freezing cold countries when the Wuhan virus abates, UAE, Malaysia and Singapore all reporting spikes in cases over the last 24hrs, Singapore really surprised because if Singapore can’t really contain it, which country can!

[humbug]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

If it’s fair to assume Wuhan Lab virus (aka COVID-19) has governments worldwide underreporting mild cases, then one can also surmise the WHO’s stated mortality rate of 3.4% is also inaccurate.   And China controls all of their virus data.  So we can only guess at these numbers.

Yes that is a good point and why we all should detest CCP China because if they told the truth mildly, we would probably find out, 3-4 million people were infected with mild cases, 300-400k with severe cases needing hospital care and maybe 100-200k deaths, maybe then the worldwide death rate would be closer to 1%, it’s 3.4% only because WHO China’s PR company are using the fake China and Iran numbers

[Skallywag]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

As of March 6 there are 4234 PUI persons under investigation:

  -- Recovered, returned home  = 2442

  -- Hospitalized, being treated  = 1726

Testing:

   Test result is negative = 2411

   Awaiting test results  =  1775

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php (English)

 

The normal flus (swine and avian varieties) have killed more people in the last 2 months than Covid19. 

People suffering from viral pneumonia can die, many times not tested as to how they got it,  just "treated" best they can be as there are no drug treatments.  AFAIK

Occurs every year during flu season all over the world.

So exactly how is this new virus any different?

[Susco]

8 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

Have the lackluster Thai government been shamed into actually doing something because of the virility of posters on Thai Visa I  wonder???

Let me correct that for you.

 

Have the Thai government been shamed into actually doing something finally decided to release more info on what they have been doing since long behind the scenes because of the virility of posters CYNICS on Thai Visa ?

 

8 hours ago, MikeyScars said:

Investigated means what?

Checked temperature?

 

But it looks like those bar stool experts still can find something to complain about. Wonder why they decided to live in this country where they have nothing than criticism about.

[Surasak]

5 hours ago, crazykopite said:

My local Makro is checking everyone’s temperature trouble is it doesn’t tell you if you have the virus so it’s a wee bit useless to say the least . Has Thailand got testing kits yet ? I doubt it.  ????

All Makro are doing this I believe. Checking someone's temperature is pointless, you can have a high temperature for a number of reasons. One of which could be having just eaten a hot chilli meal. Like many other things in LOS, just pointless, but we are doing something.

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

I wish I could find the graph posted here on TVF about a week to 10 days ago - it specifically said viral pneumonia

 

This is NOT a graph of cases of viral pneumonia. It is a graph of the cumulative number of persons under investigation for COVID-19. Most of whom do not have COVID and many of whom probably don't have pneumonia of any type either. Just fever and a history of travel to certain place or exposure to people from there, or to a known COVID case.  Tose (and not "virsl pneumonia") being the criteria.

 

And conversely most people with viral pneumonia do not have COVID.

 

This (incorrectly interpreted) graph has it has been copied without source so  it cannot be posted here. Nor is it of any use, indeed as we have seen posters try to distort its meaning to support their own theories.

 

Nobody knows what the actual incidence or prevalence of COVID-19 is in the general population in Thailand is but there is no indication of an unusual  spike in viral pneumonia cases. Since ~80% of cases are quite mild, it would take quite an enormous surge in total number of COVID-19 infections to lead to a noticeable increase in hospitalizations for viral pneumonia . That did  happen in China but has not, at least as yet, occurred in Thailand.

 

 

[Haecksler]

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Figures about testing need to be taken with a grain of salt. Some are real RT-PCR tests, which themselves aren't very reliable (I've seen 50% estimates for false negatives), some CT scans of lungs (any pneumonia will do) and some by clinical means (looks like you might have it, basically).

 

There are no good quick tests available at the moment: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-sars-cov-2-tests-work-and-whats-next-in-covid-19-diagnostics-67210

I think there are tests available. The mentioned German Team in your report is likely the team of Prof. Dr. Christian Dorsten. This guy together with Stephan Guenter developed the first quick test for SARS 17 years ago. The same they do with COVID 19. This test is available as far as I understood but it is not fool proved.

It is mentioned that depending on the availability (transport time) the result is after 4-7 hours available.

I think if the Thai MOPH want to test they can. The emphasis lays on "want".

The new number of PUI today is 4234 with 1726 still in hospital. So what??

And now it starts that People return home from Thailand and getting sick.

As far as I understand it is now 4 in total. If this number increase it will be bad.

[todlad]

more tripe from the TV brigade.

 

talk to your Thai spouse, family and friends, they will tell you exactly what is known about your city/district.

 

then you can stop all of your wild imaginings and even your ridiculous xenophobic slurs.

[simtemple]

Fortunately there's such a thing as a Chinese whistle-blower. Infection rates and deaths, according to Chinese whistle-blowers and residents, are not abating in China. Pity Thais don't have the same sense of social responsibility towards each other. 

[humbug]

49 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

The normal flus (swine and avian varieties) have killed more people in the last 2 months than Covid19. 

People suffering from viral pneumonia can die, many times not tested as to how they got it,  just "treated" best they can be as there are no drug treatments.  AFAIK

Occurs every year during flu season all over the world.

So exactly how is this new virus any different?

ah that’s why the bond markets are going nuts, it’s just a normal Wuhan flu, that’s why in Iran today, the Tehran health official expects 30-40% of the Tehran 12 million population, to have the normal

flu, and that’s why they have queues in their 1000’s in line at hospitals, just a normal flu mix of sars and aids, better take that lemsip, and thank CCP China for this wonderful normal flu 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

Why are there so many awaiting results now that they have fast PCR testing?

Well, "fast". It's 24h for express RT-PCR, normally 3 days. Throughput is unknown but I doubt it has gone up any from the days where we still saw it being 4-5 cases/d. There are other labs like Chula's that are not reference labs and can do the tests, but their results are "unofficial" and won't end up as confirmations.

 

I think you saw this one already, the lab times and prices from the hospital where the confirmed and quarantined end up in: http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/userfiles/Handbook of Specimen collection .pdf . 250 beds available so they can't get all PUIs in, not even close.

 

There's a block of buildings in Bangkok where MoPH, NIH and Bumrasnaradura are located. That and army resources are the spearhead of Thailand's response. Outside of that city block, common hospitals that will send their samples there. It's fairly clear there's no way Thailand is prepared for a pandemic like this.

Edited March 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Haecksler said:

I think there are tests available. The mentioned German Team in your report is likely the team of Prof. Dr. Christian Dorsten. This guy together with Stephan Guenter developed the first quick test for SARS 17 years ago. The same they do with COVID 19. This test is available as far as I understood but it is not fool proved.

I would be interested in details of this. Especially about where test kits for new diagnosis methods could be produced in bulk, because these days it would usually have been China. The availability of a rapid test kit, f.ex. like the plastic kit that's available for HIV, would go a long ways in controlling and understanding SARS-CoV-2.

[elliss]

9 hours ago, crazygreg44 said:

Haven't over 1100 Thais returning from Korea before March 2  already slipped into the country under the radar ?  What about these ? News was that the government is "trying"  to locate them.  In our little town of Kantharalak, rumours since March 4 are going around, that 2 "phi noi" ("little ghosts") returnees from Korea have been quarantained in the government hospital of Kantharalak . . . . . . . 

 

  Issan is plagued with thai ladies in the trade ,  escorted from Korea. 

 What self isolation , another Big Joke .

Massage parlours , no shortage of eager hands ...

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by elliss
spelling

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed.

 

An offensive post has been removed. 

[Artisi]

28 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Well, "fast". It's 24h for express RT-PCR, normally 3 days. Throughput is unknown but I doubt it has gone up any from the days where we still saw it being 4-5 cases/d. There are other labs like Chula's that are not reference labs and can do the tests, but their results are "unofficial" and won't end up as confirmations.

 

I think you saw this one already, the lab times and prices from the hospital where the confirmed and quarantined end up in: http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/userfiles/Handbook of Specimen collection .pdf . 250 beds available so they can't get all PUIs in, not even close.

 

There's a block of buildings in Bangkok where MoPH, NIH and Bumrasnaradura are located. That and army resources are the spearhead of Thailand's response. Outside of that city block, common hospitals that will send their samples there. It's fairly clear there's no way Thailand is prepared for a pandemic like this.

Is any country really prepared for a major pandemic? 

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

Is any country really prepared for a major pandemic? 

China and North Korea do have an advantage. They can simply order their denizens to stay home or be shot. Communism does have some uses.

[Destiny1990]

They are fully prepared look how low the number is here of patients contaminated with that flue.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Nobody knows what the actual incidence or prevalence of COVID-19 is in the general population in Thailand is but there is no indication of an unusual  spike in viral pneumonia cases. Since ~80% of cases are quite mild, it would take quite an enormous surge in total number of COVID-19 infections to lead to a noticeable increase in hospitalizations for viral pneumonia .

 

I had a Thai government website bookmarked from the past where the Thai Dept of Disease Control's reports on all kinds of infectious diseases and numbers of cases were reported. When I checked that link here lately, the link was dead, and I could not longer find any link to those reports on the MoPH/DDC website.

 

 

[rabas]

48 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Well, "fast". It's 24h for express RT-PCR, normally 3 days. Throughput is unknown but I doubt it has gone up any from the days where we still saw it being 4-5 cases/d. There are other labs like Chula's that are not reference labs and can do the tests, but their results are "unofficial" and won't end up as confirmations.

 

I think you saw this one already, the lab times and prices from the hospital where the confirmed and quarantined end up in: http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/userfiles/Handbook of Specimen collection .pdf . 250 beds available so they can't get all PUIs in, not even close.

 

There's a block of buildings in Bangkok where MoPH, NIH and Bumrasnaradura are located. That and army resources are the spearhead of Thailand's response. Outside of that city block, common hospitals that will send their samples there. It's fairly clear there's no way Thailand is prepared for a pandemic like this.

I think the times you mention are commercial times for services rendered by hospitals.  An actually PCR test takes about 4 to 6 hours. It's pretty simple. Place the sample and the magic test solution in a test tube, place in an inexpensive machine that temperature cycles the liquid, each cycle doubles the detectable sample if present. Then do a simple chemical or florescent test. Done. The machines are cheap and widely available.  The magic is the test solution.

 

There was a video (still trying to find it) of an interview with a lady researcher at the Chula labs talking about how they had developed fast PCR testing to replace the old slow gene sequencing they used in the beginning. I think she claimed 6 hours.

 

Wasn't there a thread some days ago saying that 6 major Bangkok hospitals have been set up and allowed to do testing? The main point of the article was they were forced to report results in 3 hours or be fined for each case.

 

Testing is key to understand what's going on,  hope you keep digging.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Was looking to try to find some comparative data for Thailand re regular pneumonia cases predating the whole CV outbreak.  Found this on a Thai MOPH site:  200,000+ cases per year and 200+ pneumonia deaths per year.

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/files_en/filedata/Department of Disease Control Weekly Disease Forecast No.134 Pneumonia (13 Nov 2017).pdf

[rabas]

Here is a video about about COVID-19 PCR testing at the Singapore labs but the same would be true in Thailand. Note that one machine can test a large number of samples at a time. PCR should not present a backlog.

 

[bluedoc]

11 hours ago, crazygreg44 said:

Haven't over 1100 Thais returning from Korea before March 2  already slipped into the country under the radar ?  What about these ? News was that the government is "trying"  to locate them.  In our little town of Kantharalak, rumours since March 4 are going around, that 2 "phi noi" ("little ghosts") returnees from Korea have been quarantained in the government hospital of Kantharalak . . . . . . . 

The Uk has just announced 200 new confirmed cases today. 
 

this clown Anutin still says there is only 40 odd cases in Thailand. 
No checking, under reporting, and it’s only foreign visitors that are the problem.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Here's the latest version of the Thai DDC CV EN report as of March 6 (1 day old):

 

 

 

Quote

There are 48 confirmed cases with the virus casing COVID-19. Among the confirmed cases, 31 cases recovered and returned home and there has been one death. Laboratory results of the other 4,186 PUI showed 2,411 negative results to the virus causing COVID-19 and results are pending for 1,775 PUI. The median age of the confirmed cases is 35 years old (ranging from 3 to 74 years old). Twenty seven cases were male and 21 cases were female (ratio of male to female: 1.3:1). There were 26 Chinese cases, 20 Thai cases, one Italian case and one British case.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no63-060363.pdf

 

One of the confirmed cases in Thailand thus far has been a 3-year-old child??? I don't recall any specific mention of that before....