300-400 suspected new coronavirus infections investigated in Thailand every day

[Skallywag]

Panic is a personal thing.  The covid19 scare will kick up your panic level a notch. understood

Science, medicine can keep you relatively safe.

Clean hands, sanitize hands, stay away from sick people coughing.

99% of people in areas other than China/Wuhan will be fine.

"Humankind tolerates many dangers, but when "unseen" , dangers create fear"  Skallywag

 

[supdog]

I think covid19 took a walk down sukhumvit one night at 4am, thought it had a chance in Thailand. Then went to beach road and realized it was wasting its time here, so it left. Too many diseases to compete against 

Edited March 7, 2020 by supdog

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

20 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

99% of people in areas other than China/Wuhan will be fine.

 

The rate of new CV infections outside of China has lately surpassed the numbers reported from inside China.
 

Quote

 

"Yesterday, the number of new cases reported outside China exceeded the number of new cases in China for the first time," the head of the World Health Organization said Wednesday in an update on the coronavirus disease COVID-19.

 

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/26/809568686/coronavirus-more-new-cases-are-now-reported-outside-china-than-inside

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Mung]

43 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

The Uk has just announced 200 new confirmed cases today. 
 

this clown Anutin still says there is only 40 odd cases in Thailand. 
No checking, under reporting, and it’s only foreign visitors that are the problem.

No it's a total of a little over 200 in the UK, 40 or so new ones today

[NanLaew]

3 hours ago, Surasak said:

All Makro are doing this I believe. Checking someone's temperature is pointless, you can have a high temperature for a number of reasons. One of which could be having just eaten a hot chilli meal. Like many other things in LOS, just pointless, but we are doing something.

If any Makro store rejects just one Covid-19 carrier along with the hot somtam eaters and the perpetually flustered, sweaty farangs (you know who you are!), then in my book it's a job well done.

 

What's more pointless than doing nothing?

 

I mean more pointless than @Surasak's post?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

And here's the Thai DDC's EN CV news release for March 7:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/news/news_no43_070363.pdf

 

An excerpt re the newest cases (Thais from Italy) bringing the total to 50:
 

Quote

 

For the Thai undocumented workers who returned from South Korea test results for SARS-COV-2 were negative. MOPH is continuing screening at all ports of entry in Thailand.
...

MOPH confirmed two additional COVID-19 cases among a group of Thais who went to Italy for work. The group had six people, and three were confirmed cases. The first patient was the 45th case (reported on 5 March 2020), and two more patients are today’s new cases. The other three in the group had negative laboratory results and are still in the surveillance system of the Department of Disease Control.
 

One of the new cases is a 40 year-old male Thai office worker. The date of illness onset was 5 March 2020. He was treated at a private hospital with fever then he was transferred to Rajavithi Hospital for treatment. He has four close contacts who are his family members. None of them have symptoms and they all tested negative for the virus causing COVID-19. The second case is also a 40 year-old male Thai office worker. He went to the Institute for Urban Disease Control and Prevention with a sore throat without fever and then he was referred to Nopparatrajathanee Hospital. He has no close contacts.

 

 

So re the second case mentioned above, they have a confirmed CV case with symptoms of a sore throat only but no fever? 

 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

I think the times you mention are commercial times for services rendered by hospitals.  An actually PCR test takes about 4 to 6 hours. It's pretty simple. Place the sample and the magic test solution in a test tube, place in an inexpensive machine that temperature cycles the liquid, each cycle doubles the detectable sample if present. Then do a simple chemical or florescent test. Done. The machines are cheap and widely available.  The magic is the test solution.

Yes, but there's the overhead of moving samples, bureaucracy, retesting a few times and of course somebody keeping their foot on the pipe. I would guess simply transporting a tube containing swabs will take half a day. While the actual execution of the diagnosis procedure takes an few hours, there's an entire logistic and bureaucratic (and yes, political) delay in all of it.

 

Labs like Chula's (yes I remember the video too, the lady said 1500 tests done then, what was it, couple of weeks back?) can and do test, but since they are not a reference lab, their positive results will very likely not end up as a confirmation and as a thread here on TVF. But it will result in the PUI being hospitalized. I think the hospitalized number is one of the most important indicators we have now - until they read these messages and drop that info too. It's practically guaranteed somebody is reading the posts on the largest English language Thai forum. Howdy, Anutin's translator, send my regards!

 

The numbers I quoted are the main infectious diseases hospitals ( Bamrasnaradura, which is mentioned in almost every article now and is situated right next to NIH's reference lab, so very likely same facilities ) are quotes from their own manual, the pdf I linked. I found it by googling and following links on their web page.

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, Surasak said:

Checking someone's temperature is pointless

Not completely, at least when the outside temperature is under 37 you might get a heads up that you got a bug of some sorts. If the outside temp you just arrived from is over 37, which it well can be in Thailand, especially in parking lots, then a quick surface skin temp check is indeed pretty useless.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Panic is a personal thing. 

That it is. I dont know when people lost the control of their reactions to emotions, but it seems to have been somewhere in the early noughts. Before that the shadow of WW2 acted as a reality check. Millenials seem to have zero neocortex activity couneracting the amygdala.

[Rick1812]

Getting closer to real number.  But add some zeros.  

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Here's the latest version of the Thai DDC CV EN report as of March 6 (1 day old):

779 in government hospitals. The main infectious diseases hospital keeping people in quarantine, Bamrasnaradura, has 250 beds. If I was a betting man, I'd put a bet on all of those beds being taken.

Edited March 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[Tayaout]

2 hours ago, Skallywag said:

Panic is a personal thing.  The covid19 scare will kick up your panic level a notch. understood

Science, medicine can keep you relatively safe.

Clean hands, sanitize hands, stay away from sick people coughing.

99% of people in areas other than China/Wuhan will be fine.

"Humankind tolerates many dangers, but when "unseen" , dangers create fear"  Skallywag

 

20%+ of the cases are not in China anymore and raising fast. No need to panic but not everyone will be fine. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

41 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

779 in government hospitals. The main infectious diseases hospital keeping people in quarantine, Bamrasnaradura, has 250 beds. If I was a betting man, I'd put a bet on all of those beds being taken.

 

If you notice in the excerpt of the March 7 DDC news release I quoted above, neither of the two most recent cases were sent to Bamrasnaradura.  Rather, one to Rajivithi, and the other to Nopparatrajathanee Hospital. Of course, no explanation given as to why.

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Interesting statistics:

 

In the early days of the CV outbreak, the Thai MoPH/DDC was reporting numbers on CV patients under investigation who were awaiting test results (what I would call the testing backlog) and those numbers pretty steadily climbed into the 200-300 patients range.  And then amid mounting questions about that backlog, the MOPH suddenly stopped publicly reporting those numbers.

 

Now in the past week or so, the MoPH/DDC has suddenly once again started publicly reporting statistics on the PUI cases who are awaiting CV test results, and the current numbers are dramatically higher and rising, making the prior backlogs look small by comparison.

 

Here's the PUI cases awaiting test results data from the MOPH's recent EN public reports:

 

March 7 -- 1763 patients*

(*no 3/7 EN report yet, but this is the TH report number using Google Translate.)

March 6 -- 1775 patients, up 119

March 5 -- 1656 patients, up 41

March 4 -- 1615 patients, up 17

March 3 -- 1598 patients, no prior data reported

[Number 6]

400 cases: I'm sure this is just within the airports plus 50 from hospital reports and a few other random reports.

 

With other nations running around in hazmat suits kinda funny none of us has ever seen any evidence of government doing anything other than a one off time handing flimsy masks out by bare hand.

 

There are no rapid deployment crews, No national directives.

 

I bet there are very few dedicated medical staff working on this from the government side on the ground. Epidemiologists, viral scientists, etc.

 

If I was over 70, not in great health or smoker at any age I'd be worried.

 

I've this awful feeling that this is calm before storm. Soon all the cases will become public. Government will do nothing. Pick up the pieces next year. Tsunami of disease wash over the land when much could have been avoided. Mai pen rai.

[Number 6]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Interesting statistics:

 

In the early days of the CV outbreak, the Thai MoPH/DDC was reporting numbers on CV patients under investigation who were awaiting test results (what I would call the testing backlog) and those numbers pretty steadily climbed into the 200-300 patients range.  And then amid mounting questions about that backlog, the MOPH suddenly stopped publicly reporting those numbers.

 

Now in the past week or so, the MoPH/DDC has suddenly once again started publicly reporting statistics on the PUI cases who are awaiting CV test results, and the current numbers are dramatically higher and rising, making the prior backlogs look small by comparison.

 

Here's the PUI cases awaiting test results data from the MOPH's recent EN public reports:

 

March 7 -- 1763 patients*

(*no 3/7 EN report yet, but this is the TH report number using Google Translate.)

March 6 -- 1775 patients, up 119

March 5 -- 1656 patients, up 41

March 4 -- 1615 patients, up 17

March 3 -- 1598 patients, no prior data reported

Thanks for that.

 

This is the pattern, it's exponential in growth. Vhinas6been fudging it's numbers. Following mathmatical algorithm.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Number 6

[Chazar]

14 hours ago, NanLaew said:

Ah yes... the moobahn gulag bodybag theory. I threw that one out for general consumption on another, similarly over-infatuated forum just a few hours ago so it's nice to see that someone pick it up and run with it already.

 

Truly it doesn't matter if this or any government has been somewhat remiss with facts and a bit cavalier with the details. The fact is Covid-19 is here in Thailand already so instead of rinsing and gargling on internet forums, we should just concentrate on washing our hands.

after  removing  the  glasses?

[Chazar]

4 hours ago, NanLaew said:

What's more pointless than doing nothing?

being  seen  doing nothing

[Iron Tongue]

12 hours ago, ukrules said:

There is emerging evidence that this COVID19 was around in at least November last year.

 

A Sky news video interview has recently surfaced (yesterday) with a guy named 'Connor Reed', he lives in Wuhan working as a teacher and became ill towards the end of November.

 

Now it's highly unlikely he was the first person to catch this virus in Wuhan so it's anyones guess as to how long it was around before this guy became infected, his infection was confirmed, last year in Wuhan. It's now March.

 

The Wuhan quarantine came at the end of Janauary so it was 'in the wild' for at least 2 full months.

 

A Canadian medical team also came to the conclusion that covid-19 has been around since November.  Their mathematical modeling of covid-19 spread did not make sense if using a December start, but when they tried using November, the numbers made sense.

[smedly]

1 hour ago, skorp13 said:

More media fear mongering. More people are dying on the roads than catching the virus

well yes and that is an equal shame on the country that claims to be the hub of everything, the UK records annually about 2000 deaths on the roads - Thailand is almost double that a month

 

The hub of total incompetence - the problem is they just can't help themselves and refuse help from anyone else - they talk it up and some fools think it is real 

 

Here is real for the country of illusional hubs  - 

 

- every major infrastructure project has been managed by foreign companies

- Thailand does not have anything they designed themselves, oh they manufacture lots of other peoples stuff, that goes for cars - electronics - Pharma etc - for such a claimed hub in SEA they actually have achieved nothing - zero

 

But here's the kicker - they should have, so what is wrong 

 

It is a shame - I would like to see Thailand develop to what should be their true potential and the people deserve it 

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Completed a questionaire.

Anutin must have copy/pasted a template from the internet, downloaded it; handed it to immigration for everyone to ignore!

[Pancho]

This seems scripted. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

[RJRS1301]

Picture shows how NOT to wear a mask for anyprotection. Cloth, untied, really god negative mask example

 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Thanks for that.

 

This is the pattern, it's exponential in growth. Vhinas6been fudging it's numbers. Following mathmatical algorithm.

The rate of new PUI can be affected by multiple factors as Sheryl points out. Most notable is the increase in screening at hospitals and other locations in the past 2 weeks.  Rule changes will also affect the rate.  On the other hand one can also ask why are they broadening the net?

 

I still think the numbers are odd enough to wonder if are the authorities are putting their fingers on the scale.

[metisdead]

An off topic trolling post about road deaths and a reply has been removed. 

[zydeco]

12 hours ago, Haecksler said:

This test is available as far as I understood but it is not fool proved.

If it's not fool proved now, it will be when it gets to Thailand.

[Iron Tongue]

The Thai govt. is really going to be embarrassed when China suspends all travel to Thailand because it is an infection hotbed!

[OnTheRun]

Does getting heat screend at Makro count?

[Skallywag]

8 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The rate of new CV infections outside of China has lately surpassed the numbers reported from inside China.

 

OK - but I didnt say "new cases"....We all know its out there, and it might kill me.  Am fairly high risk and over 60 years, am also high risk for heart disease, stroke, colon cancer, prostate cancer, and others.

 

I wash my hands and use sanitizer, but have not stopped living a normal life.

 

To be afraid that someone may cough or sneeze near me and happens to be one of the 40-4000 people infected in Thailand (out of a population of 39 million)  is ridiculous. 

Approx.  0.001 % chance

 

Much more likely to be killed by accident, an accident, stupidity, or food poisoning...interesting fact, "foodborne diseases annually cause as many as 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide"

 

Peace and Health to all

 

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, rooster59 said:

300-400 suspected new coronavirus infections investigated in Thailand every day

Seems strange that 300-400 are suspected and investigated, but only the odd one has an infection... why are they suspect in the first place to warrant a test?

Maybe Thais are prone fevers but no infections?