Be informed, be aware. Prevention and precautions in a Covid-19 world

[webfact]

Be informed, be aware. Prevention and precautions in a Covid-19 world

ByThe Thaiger

 

 

As of this morning the number of cases of the Covid-19 coronavirus has reached 169,552. The number of deaths related to the virus is now 6,516, representing a death rate of around 3.8%, up from 3.4% two weeks ago, and up from the earlier days when it hovered around 2%. But the number of people that have fully recovered has now grown to 77,753.

 

Thailand reported 32 new cases yesterday. Read about the new cases HERE.

 

In the last week the spikes have been in Italy, USA, Iran, Spain, Germany and other European countries. More outbreaks will occur. As the number of cases mount and treatment is becoming more nuanced with a larger sample size, across the globe, some key factors are emerging.

 

Firstly, the virus is statistically more contagious than the flu or common cold, whilst the death rate is higher than seasonal flus. A lot higher. Like 60-80 times higher (when compared to annual US influenza statistics). Statistically that isn’t hugely significant when there are 100,000 cases.

But it would be if there were 100 million, or a billion cases.

 

 

Covid-19 also has a higher potential to overwhelm health care systems with the sudden influx of new cases and be a high risk for people with other illnesses.

 

Influenzas and the common cold are already global and have been floating around the global community for thousands of years, mutating and evolving. Covid-19 has been around for just over 2 months, and only a month or so beyond China’s borders (in any significant numbers).

 

For example, just two weeks ago Italians were going about their daily lives with a few isolated cases being reported in the north of the country. Now the entire country is in complete lockdown and their hospital system overwhelmed with cases. 17,660 confirmed cases as of today and a death rate of 7.1%.

 

Still, the ability for governments, generally, to contain the spread of the disease has been swift at this stage and the education about prevention continues spread quickly through the internet (as does the misinformation).

 

It should also be noted that many of the people who have sadly succumbed to the virus have been in the older demographics, in China and beyond, and many with reported underlying diseases as well. In fact, as you get older your chances of dying from a Covid-19 infection increases, in a completely predictable linear fashion. The message here is clear – be young and remain healthy.

 

 

Secondly, the virus’s incubation period, where it can remain contagious with the carrier showing few or no symptoms, is an ongoing concern. Biologically, it behaves differently than the flu.

 

Viruses are genetically destined to survive, evolve and thrive. The insidious beauty of the Covid-19 virus is that the symptoms in its human hosts can remain dormant for up to 4 days (current estimates), during which time the host can be highly contagious, milling around in close contact with other humans, oblivious to their role as a ‘spreader’.

 

This relatively unique dynamic of the Covid-19 coronavirus will continue to remain the disease’s main advantage, and the biggest challenge for world health authorities.

 

 

Thirdly, we are still in the very early phases of this pandemic. Whilst the containment has been swift in most cases, and with many locations in almost total lockdown (parts of central South Korea, Italy, some New York suburbs) we’re still seeing a wide spread of the virus.

 

It’s also clear that our mobile, gregarious and jet-setting lifestyle – more people are flying from continent to continent than any time in human history – is a perfect mechanism to spread the disease, faster and more efficiently.

 

In the last week we’ve seen a serious escalation of cases in disparate locations around the world, most Europe and the US at this stage. But be assured that these ‘outbreaks’ will pop up in other locations in the coming weeks and months. Consider that places like India, South America and Africa are still to report large outbreaks at this stage. That could currently be due to inadequate testing or mis-reporting.

 

 

Finally, whilst we’ve learned a lot as we follow and analyse cases in the digital age, there’s still much we don’t understand about this novel coronavirus. As its original designation suggests, it’s novel, or new. New information, scientifically verified, is creeping out each day giving global authorities better information to initiate better procedures to try and contain the spread and care for patients.

 

That all bodes well for the future although, at this stage, the increased knowledge hasn’t turned into a drop in the numbers of new reported cases. Responsible media remains core to communicating the latest, most accurate information.

 

The best we can all do is be prepared, informed and keep up to date with reliable news on the matter.

 

So, why should we be taking the Covid-19 outbreak seriously?

 

In the next few months there will surely be some reliable, proven vaccine produced. But it could take up to a year, or more, to test and then ramp up the manufacture to a point where medical authorities could usefully start vaccinating large sections of the community. Even so, the early days of manufacture will be used on the most serious cases, in the richest countries. It’s roll-out to a wider world population could take many more months.

 

The best long term solution is going to remain preventative which will fundamentally change so many aspects of our lives, compared to the pre-coronavirus days (pre-2020).

 

Travel, events, gatherings of people, greetings, wearing of face-masks (whether they provide any barrier or not), tourism industries, airlines, business sentiment, etc, etc.

 

Even this week we’ve seen a substantial reaction from the business world with share markets dropping around the world. We’re likely to see more knee-jerk investor reaction as the business world fully digests the impact of the virus spread. At this stage the effects to business will probably be profound and medium to long-term, maybe up to the end of this year. But no one really knows.

 

Many things will change and a new post-Covid-19 world may emerge, where our community and contact with each other may be played out in a whole new way; the hand shake, the cheek-kiss greeting of the Europeans, protocols at large events, the idea of centralised ‘offices’ – we’re already starting to see habits modified to cope with the new paradigm.

 

New general behaviours will emerge which will profoundly change the way we communicate and go about civil discourse.

 

The big winners will be some medical companies and private hospitals, home delivery services, businesses that can operate with its workforce working remotely, and probably a few churches (for those that prefer a ‘divine’ solution rather than a medical one). There will also be a boom in fake-cures, pseudoscience-related information, scams and politicians who will use the turn of events to their own benefit. Turn your bullshit-detector dial up to ‘high’.

 

So when people post about world influenza figures, compare the Covid-19 outbreak to the issue of global starvation or even the road toll, they forget that ALL these issues are separate and unique situations that bear no resemblance. The issues should not, and cannot, be compared. We are in the very early phases of Covid-19 and we already know enough to confirm that this in NOT just another influenza with an extremely low mortality rate.

 

We remain floundering in the early days of this world pandemic and, statistically, there are no positive signs of the situation being brought under control in the immediate future.

 

“We are in unchartered territory. We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can also be contained with the right measures.” – WHO Chief

 

Remain alert and informed, but not alarmed.

 

Symptoms

 

Symptoms of Covid-19 are similar to a range of other illnesses such as influenza. Having any of these symptoms does not necessarily mean that you have Covid-19, and in the vast majority of cases, it won’t be. But symptoms include…

 

• fever
• coughing
• difficulty breathing

 

Difficulty breathing is a sign of possible respiratory problems, a lung infection or pneumonia and requires immediate medical attention.

We don’t yet know how long symptoms take to show after a person has been infected, but current World Health Organisation assessments suggest that it is 2–10 days, even up to 14 days.

 

If you have these symptoms, or have recently been to a country or area of concern, or have been in close contact with someone confirmed with Covid-19, or in an area with a lot of other people, please contact your nearest public hospital to register your situation, and go to the hospital if you start to display symptoms.

 

Prevention

 

There is currently no vaccine to prevent the latest coronavirus (Covid-19). The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to the virus in the first place. However, here are some everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases, including…

 

• Avoid close contact with people who are sick (probably good advice at any time).
• Put distance between yourself and other people if Covid-19 is spreading in your community. This is especially important for people who are at higher risk of getting sick.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth. Maintain high standards of hygiene.
• Stay home if you are sick and inform your family or workplace if you are unwell.
• Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the rubbish bin.
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. This includes tables, doorknobs, light switches, countertops, handles, desks, keyboards, toilets, faucets, and sinks.
• Follow medical recommendations for using a face mask…

 

• The US Centres for Disease Control and the World Health Organisation do not recommend that people who are well wear a face mask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including Covid-19.
• Face masks should be used by people who show symptoms of Covid-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of face masks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility)
• Face masks may be in short supply and they should be saved for caregivers.
• Note: The flimsy, cheap, paper face masks will do almost nothing to help anyone.

 

• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.

 

• As an alternative, use an alcohol-based hand sanitiser with at least 60% alcohol.
• Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty.

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/be-informed-be-aware-prevention-and-precautions-in-a-covid-19-world

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2020-03-16

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[potless]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Turn your <deleted>-detector dial up to ‘high’.

My BS detector burned out weeks ago.

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the rubbish bin.

If your plumbing system allows it, flush the muck down the toilet. Why leave bugs to ferment in your home?

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

As an alternative, use an alcohol-based hand sanitiser with at least 60% alcohol.

Joking, right?

Panic buying means that none of that is available to buy where I live and there aren't even any cases of Corona at all here.

 

I intend to carry on as normal, as what is going to cause even more destruction to society, IMO, is over reaction. Entire industries like tourism, on which millions depend to live, are being destroyed. I have no idea how long this is going to go on, but if millions end up broke and jobless, it's going to be chaos that the government will not be able to talk its way out of.

Edited March 16, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, potless said:

My BS detector burned out weeks ago.

 

If your plumbing system allows it, flush the muck down the toilet. Why leave bugs to ferment in your home?

Did you miss where viruses usually don't last long outside a warm body?

 

Most plumbing will clog up and then your toilet won't work. There is a reason only TP should be used in toilets. However feel free to use TP as tissue to blow your nose.

 

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom

Many people don't normally wash their hands after doing #2- disgusting.

[Crazy Alex]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Joking, right?

Panic buying means that none of that is available to buy where I live and there isn't even any cases of Corona at all here.

 

I intend to carry on as normal, as what is going to cause even more destruction to society, IMO, is over reaction. Entire industries like tourism, on which millions depend to live, are being destroyed. I have no idea how long this is going to go on, but if millions end up broke and jobless, it's going to be chaos that the government will not be able to talk its way out of.

Sadly, this is the best we can do- inject some sanity into the situation. I went to the market a few days ago. I saw the beginnings of  hysterical buying (it has been relatively calm where I live). I rejected my impulse to simply buy more stuff, as it is my standard practice to have larger than needed quantities of things like rice, canned food, ramen noodles and bottles of water. People who maintain at least some preparedness for supply disruptions don't need to fall for hysterics.

 

Oh and I notice there's not much mockery of doomsday preppers lately. Seems to me they're ahead of the curve.

[RubbaJohnny]

While unquailfied to comment on the epidemiology no one can really now the morbidity rte until the event until later when total casualities are counted.There will also be theissue of misreporting for honest or dishonst reasons.

 

Authoritarian and corrupt regimes unaccountable to free press courts and electors may minimize their mismanagement or hope tourist will not know about their lies and incompetence, institutionalized racism and dual pricing.

[Crazy Alex]

1 minute ago, RubbaJohnny said:

While unquailfied to comment on the epidemiology no one can really now the morbidity rte until the event until later when total casualities are counted.There will also be theissue of misreporting for honest or dishonst reasons.

 

Authoritarian and corrupt regimes unaccountable to free press courts and electors may minimize their mismanagement or hope tourist will not know about their lies and incompetence, institutionalized racism and dual pricing.

I was thinking along the same lines. At this point, it is likely very difficult to tally actual cases versus what we are probably getting- known cases. Then of course I suspect the mortality rate can differ by country based on available health care and response capabilities.

[Tarteso]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

proven vaccine

We are all waiting for these 2 sacred words.

[nausea]

The response is simple -under 60 get it, get over it; over 60, isolate and rely on the herd-immunity when it's all over. Personally, I'm 65, I'll take my chances. What's the morbidity rate for my age  - 5-6%. I must admit I'm not quite ready to die yet. Need to marry my SO and put in a couple of years for her to get the pension. I dream about that day I can say "This is a good day to die".

[timendres]

21 minutes ago, Tarteso said:

7 hours ago, webfact said:

proven vaccine

We are all waiting for these 2 sacred words.

It is very likely that natural immunity in a large section of the population will make the significant difference long before a vaccine is widely available.

[Tarteso]

9 minutes ago, timendres said:

It is very likely that natural immunity in a large section of the population will make the significant difference long before a vaccine is widely available

if the genetic mutation of the virus does not change, that’s possible.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Tarteso

[timendres]

Just now, Tarteso said:

if the genetic mutation of the virus does not change, it is possible.

Excellent point. Some experts are saying that it will become very much like the seasonal flu, with small variations over time making vaccinations complicated, but with a slightly higher mortality rate.

[thaibeachlovers]

34 minutes ago, Tarteso said:

We are all waiting for these 2 sacred words.

Wait about a year.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, Crazy Alex said:

Sadly, this is the best we can do- inject some sanity into the situation. I went to the market a few days ago. I saw the beginnings of  hysterical buying (it has been relatively calm where I live). I rejected my impulse to simply buy more stuff, as it is my standard practice to have larger than needed quantities of things like rice, canned food, ramen noodles and bottles of water. People who maintain at least some preparedness for supply disruptions don't need to fall for hysterics.

 

Oh and I notice there's not much mockery of doomsday preppers lately. Seems to me they're ahead of the curve.

So, on the hand the one hand "Sadly, this is the best we can do- inject some sanity into the situation." and on the other hand "Oh and I notice there's not much mockery of doomsday preppers lately. Seems to me they're ahead of the curve."

Ahead of the curve and insane? 

 

[Don Mega]

46 minutes ago, nausea said:

The response is simple -under 60 get it, get over it; over 60, isolate and rely on the herd-immunity when it's all over. Personally, I'm 65, I'll take my chances. What's the morbidity rate for my age  - 5-6%. I must admit I'm not quite ready to die yet. Need to marry my SO and put in a couple of years for her to get the pension. I dream about that day I can say "This is a good day to die".

Its the Boomer Remover Virus !!!

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Its the Boomer Remover Virus !!!

Even without Corona, us oldies take up a disproportionate amount of public hospital care. Problem is they just won't let us die of natural causes. Keep filling us up with expensive medicine and even putting us on machines to keep us alive past our use by date.

[Chazar]

5 hours ago, potless said:

My BS detector burned out weeks ago.

 

If your plumbing system allows it, flush the muck down the toilet. Why leave bugs to ferment in your home?

burn it is  better.............gas  mark 6 for 20  minutes

[JimGant]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. This includes tables, doorknobs, light switches, countertops, handles, desks, keyboards, toilets, faucets, and sinks.

Makes sense if you're a restaurant proprietor... But if it's just me and the wife in our isolated home in the country, why would I be running around with this "out damned spot" routine?

[potless]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Most plumbing will clog up and then your toilet won't work.

 

7 hours ago, potless said:

If your plumbing system allows it,

 

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

7 hours ago, potless said:

 

Did you miss where viruses usually don't last long outside a warm body?

Depends on what virus you are talking about. Sorry I cant provide a link but this study indicates a possible life span of up to 9 days. "sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on surfaces." As I dont know what I was coughing up last week, or where it came from, I will keep flushing.

 

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Many people don't normally wash their hands after doing #2- disgusting.

Totally agree.

[White Christmas13]

3 hours ago, timendres said:

It is very likely that natural immunity in a large section of the population will make the significant difference long before a vaccine is widely available.

Well I just read in the news in Australia they will have one ready in about

10 days but need some cash injection to produce more. Already tested on a

few patients and it seem to be successful. Cross your fingers.

[timendres]

2 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

Well I just read in the news in Australia they will have one ready in about

10 days but need some cash injection to produce more. Already tested on a

few patients and it seem to be successful. Cross your fingers.

If you are referring to this announcement:

   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8110909/Australian-scientists-say-vaccine-deadly-coronavirus-roll-yet.html

 

You might want to note their timeline estimates:

Quote

• It could see human trials at the University of Queensland in a few months time
• The injection is currently on track to become available at the end of this year 

 

We are going to hear a lot of declarations regarding vaccines in the coming months. It is researchers crying our for (desperately need, of course) funding. Some will be charlatans and some legitimate. The truth is simple. This is not a simple vaccine to develop, there will be many dead ends, and testing takes serious time. First there is animal testing, then limited human testing, then expanded human testing, then approval processes. Short circuiting any of these steps puts populations at risk.