Thailand reports 30 new coronavirus cases, total of 177, official says

[Timwin]

This is further proof the R0 is much lower in tropical countries. It is not spreading as effectively as in countries now with temperatures below 10 C. In northern countries the # of cases mushroomed from few tens to their daily testing capacity maximum within one week or so. Thailand has slow climb and still foreigners in the mix.

[bkkcanuck8]

Nice dynamic graphs that demonstrate the effects of different approaches to 'flattening the curve' in a very intuitive way...

 

Washington Post: Corona Simulator

 

 

[Dutyfirst]

5 minutes ago, Timwin said:

This is further proof the R0 is much lower in tropical countries. It is not spreading as effectively as in countries now with temperatures below 10 C. In northern countries the # of cases mushroomed from few tens to their daily testing capacity maximum within one week or so. Thailand has slow climb and still foreigners in the mix.

https://reason.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-epidemic-may-be-slowed-by-warm-and-humid-weather/

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

[zydeco]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

People wear protective face masks due to the coronavirus outbreak, as they line up at counters in a super market in Bangkok, Thailand March 16, 2020.

Yea, it's looking like these steady 30 plus new cases per day are pushing people over the edge. I still remember the way the stores were cleaned out in the 2011 flood. Looks like it may be about to happen again. But from the picture, at least it looks like we'll still have plenty of M&Ms. Problem with them is that in Thailand they melt in your mouth and in your hands. 

[rabas]

14 minutes ago, Lee4Life said:

So what's the deal with the admonition to "thoroughly cook" certain foods? and avoid close contact with livestock and animals? I have been reading all I can about the coronavirus, and I haven't seen any of the contagious disease experts from other countries mention these things?

Hong Kong dogs.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-says-pets-of-coronavirus-patients-need-to-be-quarantined-11582888486

[bkkcanuck8]

8 minutes ago, Timwin said:

This is further proof the R0 is much lower in tropical countries. It is not spreading as effectively as in countries now with temperatures below 10 C. In northern countries the # of cases mushroomed from few tens to their daily testing capacity maximum within one week or so. Thailand has slow climb and still foreigners in the mix.

And yet, the cases (official) are now accelerating in a similar growth curve to Europe - delayed by a week or two. 

 

Malaysia added 315 cases on one day a few days ago. 

 

Basically it has reached critical mass.

Edited March 17, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[animatic]

3 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

This guy is obviously looking for a promotion from his xenophobic boss. Yes, blame it on those filthy unwashed foreigners who refuse to wear masks. But wait... if the foreigners are the major spreaders, why haven't they figured more prominently among the infected? I guess we can't let logic get in the way of a good foreigner put-down story.

But it doesn’t say where these foreigners are from. China would be a good bet.
 

The Permanent Secretary has been the most clear and accurate voice for the crisis of all in gov. speaking.
 

Usually brought in as spokesman when his political appointee Minister sticks his foot in mouth yet again up to the knee.

 

Yes, Minister 2020

Edited March 17, 2020 by animatic

[DrTuner]

18 minutes ago, Lee4Life said:

So what's the deal with the admonition to "thoroughly cook" certain foods? and avoid close contact with livestock and animals? I have been reading all I can about the coronavirus, and I haven't seen any of the contagious disease experts from other countries mention these things?

Comorbidities perhaps. I don't mind them teaching basic hygiene even if it is unrelated.

[bkkcanuck8]

7 minutes ago, Dutyfirst said:

https://reason.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-epidemic-may-be-slowed-by-warm-and-humid-weather/

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Spanish Flu (1918) - Fall wave (multiple waves)... (influenza is more averse to hot weather and humidity).

 

Indonesia (not that far from Thailand and tropical - 1.5 million deaths.

 

Europe went for 3 months with a handful of cases at maximum, then boom... it exploded.

 

Using the same statistical reasoning 2 weeks ago, you could have come to the conclusion that there was a natural slowing of the disease in Europe because of some factor.  Statistics, misapplied, lie horribly.

Edited March 17, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[rabas]

20 minutes ago, gjoo888 said:

According to my wife, the government hospitals charge 2500 Baht for a test for the virus. If that is indeed the case, expect the virus to multiply greatly. Many, many millions of Thais can't afford that. The government needs to appropriate funds to test whoever might need it. Without the funding, Thailand is in big trouble, and so are we.

I don't think a anyone pays when the authorities require testing. You only pay if you chose to get tested out of curiosity.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, buanmeerugsaa said:

The WHO said every government must Test Test Test. 
 

If they don’t, there is no way of identifying where the infections are Concentrated and of isolating the virus. 
 

Are you listening Prayut?

A large number of these new cases came from one event... the boxing venue.

Yes a smart business man up in Chiang Mai cannot see past the profit margin and wants to keep large entertainment venues open.

Some people just can't see the connection, not just Prayut !

[CraigInBangkok]

Just now, rabas said:

I don't think a anyone pays when the authorities require testing. You only pay if you chose to get tested out of curiosity.

it also sounds like you have to pay if the test comes back negative????

[bkkcanuck8]

2 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

A large number of these new cases came from one event... the boxing venue.

Yes a smart business man up in Chiang Mai cannot see past the profit margin and wants to keep large entertainment venues open.

Some people just can't see the connection, not just Prayut !

Came from one event - and known about - because of testing.  If you are not testing because you don't expect it to be 'locally transmitted' it gets classified as flu deaths -- and flu infections.

 

The US has 5,000 cases officially, tested maybe 15,000 people... but modelling indicates it is likely on the order of many many magnitudes higher than that... just they don't have the cases recorded because they did not expect it and they did not have the testing capability to realize it was already at critical mass.

Edited March 17, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[dcnx]

25 minutes ago, gjoo888 said:

According to my wife, the government hospitals charge 2500 Baht for a test for the virus. If that is indeed the case, expect the virus to multiply greatly. Many, many millions of Thais can't afford that. The government needs to appropriate funds to test whoever might need it. Without the funding, Thailand is in big trouble, and so are we.

It’s higher than that in most testing hospitals. It’s cheaper if you show symptoms, expensive if you don’t.

[Chazar]

50 minutes ago, justin case said:

don't you think it is strange that for weeks the number stayed so low ?

of  course even my staff  told me today how bad the UK is, i tried  explaining that in the UK you can have a corona  virus  test for free so many people  have and in Thailand you  had to  pay......in one ear out tuther,not that theres  a lot between their ears at the best of  times. All those Chinese must have been very clean and non shabby when they visited as not  being  is a  known source for being infected.

[NCC1701A]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/covid-19-entertainment-sports-venues-to-be-closed-for-14-days/

 

Covid-19: Entertainment, sports venues to be closed for 14 days

All entertainment places and sports venues in and around Bangkok, including pubs, massage parlours and nightclubs, will be closed for two weeks as part of the government’s attempts to curb the spread of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced this afternoon.

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I do understand your point, however the point I make is that there are no stats indicating how many have died from dengue or Viral pneumonia which could be possibly actually COVID because a test was not conducted....

They're still dead and I doubt they are worried about what caused it.

[Chazar]

3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

but are required to take health safety measures.

such as?

[Chazar]

Just now, Traubert said:

They're still dead and I doubt they are worried about what caused it.

They might be Buddhist and could be............according to  them anyway

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Traubert said:

They're still dead and I doubt they are worried about what caused it.

But many others do except for mouth pieces like yourself......

[Chazar]

12 minutes ago, dcnx said:

It’s higher than that in most testing hospitals. It’s cheaper if you show symptoms, expensive if you don’t.

and  free in the UK which is why they have a  higher count than Thailand, know people who had tests done last month in the UK for free.

[PBXVS1100]

3 hours ago, buanmeerugsaa said:

The WHO said every government must Test Test Test. 
 

If they don’t, there is no way of identifying where the infections are Concentrated and of isolating the virus. 
 

Are you listening Prayut?

Australia won’t test a lot of people. I have a fever, runny nose, dry cough and sore throat. Working in areas with high rates of cases. I took the day off to do the right thing and try to get tested as they’re asking us to self isolate if we have these symptoms. Doctors won’t see me because of the symptoms. Hospital won’t test me as I haven’t traveled. One government website says see a doctor and get tested. Other government website says just self isolate. Coronavirus hotline Australia. Said I’m fine to work and go about my day?? Very unclear here. 

[Mavrix]

6 minutes ago, PBXVS1100 said:

Australia won’t test a lot of people. I have a fever, runny nose, dry cough and sore throat. Working in areas with high rates of cases. I took the day off to do the right thing and try to get tested as they’re asking us to self isolate if we have these symptoms. Doctors won’t see me because of the symptoms. Hospital won’t test me as I haven’t traveled. One government website says see a doctor and get tested. Other government website says just self isolate. Coronavirus hotline Australia. Said I’m fine to work and go about my day?? Very unclear here. 

I went through Melbourne airport today after travelling from Thailand last night....nobody there to ask questions about self isolation...just an A4 flyer. 

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, justin case said:

don't you think it is strange a large number is staying for weeks in hospitals ? are they on the brink of death ?

 

will thailand suddenly have 50 deaths in a week ?

 

That is garbage. The only reported death in Thailand was on 1st March and at that time there was 42 confirmed cases and 30 of them had been sent home, only 12 active cases at the time. majority of current cases are recent, about 100 in last 3 days so you are wrong to say large numbers have been in hospital for weeks.

If anything is exponential, it is the fake news.

[dallen52]

Of course there is a cost associated with the testing. 

But there is a bigger cost associated with lack of accountability and actions. 

 

No doubt many free lunches have been consumed by the powers that be so far, conducting meetings and failing to get their heads around this problem. 

The people of Thailand deserve better...

[Traubert]

49 minutes ago, animatic said:

But it doesn’t say where these foreigners are from. China would be a good bet.
 

 

There won't be many Chinese. Anyone coming back into China now does 14 days quarantine either in a designated hotel or at home. They've just done a month at home so it's simply not worth it.

[Patanawet]

4 hours ago, buanmeerugsaa said:

 

Are you listening Prayut?

As much as he is listening to the WHO who strongly advise against using masks if you are not sick.

Time that he got rid of the engineering trained foul mouthed health minister/deputy PM.

But we all know why that will not happen.

[Patanawet]

3 hours ago, DLock said:

 

 

 

So those "flattening" numbers didn't happen by luck, accident or the warm summer winds blowing it away...they are result of smart and swift action. 

 

And by strict obedience to their governments.

[sandyf]

30 minutes ago, Chazar said:

and  free in the UK which is why they have a  higher count than Thailand, know people who had tests done last month in the UK for free.

Is death free as well, higher count than in Thailand.

There has been a theory voiced in the UK that this delay plan to move the peak into the summer months is to allow the infection to spread with less of a consequence. The idea being that the population need to build up immunity to reduce the burden on the NHS in future outbreaks.

When the question was put to Matt Hancock on the Andrew Marr show he took evasive action.

[ThailandRyan]

25 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Yes they do count as cases but they don't need hospitalisation, only isolalation to prevent contagion. Sorry about all the -ions, I'm starting to sound trans atlantic.

 

They still need monitoring but it can be done by phone/app.

Show me where all those self isolation people are and where in the numbers reported they are listed if they have been confirmed......