New research from Oxford University suggests 50% of UK may have had COVID19 already

[ukrules]

There are some new articles emerging Tuesday which suggest the opposite of what Imperial College London research has been saying.

 

The research from Oxford says this - and it's quite startling compared to the other one :

 

"According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all."

 

Essentially only 1 in 1000 cases would be serious.

 

Here's a link to one of the articles published which doesn't have a paywall - there was also an article which covered the same research in the Financial Times

 

Source without paywall : https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

The FT Link (infinitely more reliable news resource but paywalled) : https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

The only way to prove this either way would be to do mass testing on the population to check for antibodies.

Edited March 25, 2020 by ukrules

[Antonymous]

Very encouraging. Let's hope correct.

[ukrules]

22 hours ago, ukrules said:

The only way to prove this either way would be to do mass testing on the population to check for antibodies.

Which is exactly what they're going to do, they ordered 3.5 million home antibody test kits to start the mass testing next week assuming it (the test) works properly.

[FarFlungFalang]

22 hours ago, Antonymous said:

Very encouraging. Let's hope correct.

I hope it's correct too.If it is then there's been a massive over reaction and question will be raised as to why  would imagine.

[Tayaout]

7 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I hope it's correct too.If it is then there's been a massive over reaction and question will be raised as to why  would imagine.

Yes full ICU and lack of ventilators is probably an overreaction. Why don't people stay at home if it's not that serious! 

[Lantern]

I think we all pray the information is correct. 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Tayaout said:

Yes full ICU and lack of ventilators is probably an overreaction. Why don't people stay at home if it's not that serious! 

These are the issues that should be addressed first with priority using any funds intended for economic stimulus instead of into the pockets of the elite where it will no doubt end up.As I've said before no need to shut everything down and create panic just spend the money establishing a workable solution of protecting those known to be vulnerable and increasing the ability (more ICU beds and ventilators) to adequately deal with the medical needs of the crisis.Waiting for community spread to be established while doing absolutely nothing then creating a panicked exodus of spreaders to where most of the most vulnerable reside is a hideous malpractice on a national level and a massive over reaction.I've stayed home long before this crisis came along so I'm quite fortunate in that way.

[lamyai3]

On 3/25/2020 at 7:47 AM, ukrules said:

The only way to prove this either way would be to do mass testing on the population to check for antibodies.

Can't happen soon enough. 

[lamyai3]

11 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

These are the issues that should be addressed first with priority using any funds intended for economic stimulus instead of into the pockets of the elite where it will no doubt end up.As I've said before no need to shut everything down and create panic just spend the money establishing a workable solution of protecting those known to be vulnerable and increasing the ability (more ICU beds and ventilators) to adequately deal with the medical needs of the crisis.Waiting for community spread to be established while doing absolutely nothing then creating a panicked exodus of spreaders to where most of the most vulnerable reside is a hideous malpractice on a national level and a massive over reaction.I've stayed home long before this crisis came along so I'm quite fortunate in that way.

When you have a government with vast economic reserves that insists on spending billions on unusable submarines (a large contraption that allows a few people to breathe underwater), but won't fund hospitals or urgently obtain ventilators (a small contraption that allows their citizens to keep breathing on land), you know something is really wrong. 

[baansgr]

If half the population have had the virus in such a short time....the transmission rate must be phenominal....some lefty crusty wanting to get in the news...wouldn't believe a word of it.

[dinga]

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I hope it's correct too.If it is then there's been a massive over reaction and question will be raised as to why  would imagine.

Rubbish - look at what is happening now in Italy, Spain, US where the hospital/medical facilities are unable to cope with the serious cases.  Listen to the medicos - Over reaction my <deleted>