Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[webfact]

Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

 

 

Thailand’s Disease Control Department (DCD) has forecast that the number of COVID-19 infections will increase to about 3,000 by the end of April, if the average rate of new infections stays at 100 per day.

 

Dr. Anupong Sujariyakul, a senior doctor at the DCD, said today that Thailand’s tipping point, which saw the new infections increase to 100 a day, occurred about a week ago when one single test started to be used for infection diagnosis.

 

He added that the big jump in new infections is concentrated around three clusters, namely people associated with the boxing tournament on March 6 at Lumpini boxing stadium, entertainment venues and those in the southern region who had attended a religious gathering outside Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

 

If the new infection rate averages 100 per day, and the public cooperates fully with the Government’s preventive directives, by staying at home and observing social distancing, he predicted that, by the end of April, total infections will be about 3,000.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-covid-19-cases-might-reach-3000-by-end-of-april/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-03-27

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[flyingtlger]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by metisdead
Trolling meme removed.

[stuhan]

I think 9000 by mid to end april if it continues, but i prey it does not come to that.

Edited March 26, 2020 by stuhan

[PatOngo]

Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

I trust TAT will be handling the books!

[TheAppletons]

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

Edited March 26, 2020 by TheAppletons

[Grumpy John]

555! Hard to believe the nAivity of some people in charge.  Some may call it miss placed optimism yet others will call it ineptitude.  When millions don't have the money to have the test and the government won't pay for the test you have a disaster in the making!  3000 will be eclipsed soon enough.  

[AlexRich]

The Covid-19 cases are well in excess of any recorded number, you can be sure of that. Why would the rate of infections stay at 100 per day? If this was a politician making that suggestion I’d understand but this guy is supposed to be an expert ... does he understand how R0 (R naught) works? 
 

I get Covid-19, I infect 3 others, they infect 3 others, the 9 infect 3 others, the 27 infect 3 others, the 81 infect 3 others, the 243 infect 3 others ... and on and on ... until half the country has it.

 

This fool is talking as if every Thai can lock away in solitary confinement ... given the bus loads from Bangkok going to the villages, this virus will spread like wildfire.

Edited March 26, 2020 by AlexRich

[cornishcarlos]

I really hope this virus can thin the herd out a bit... This guy is a prime example of a lame antelope that needs to be removed from the gene pool !!!

[Timwin]

24 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

 

Tropical weather is lowering the R0 a lot. Otherwise Thailand with 5 times more Chinese tourists than Italy per year would have been a lot worse a month ago already. Coronavirus family seasonality:

 

 

 

coronaviruses.jfif

[Tayaout]

35 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

The key is to do a linear amount of test and this they can predict it! 

[cms22]

30 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

The key is to do a linear amount of test and this they can predict it! 

Maths and Thais. Well. In my experience, the two don't go together very successfully!!

[Destiny1990]

Their deaths numbers don't seem to be matching.

[ouredd]

But they can count money

[unamazedloso]

I think they mean end of March? 

[MaiDong]

I remember when a Thai Scientist came forward and pronounced that Thailand would suffer(marginally) less than some other nations with rising sea levels. He turned out to be correct, despite many comments of derision - including mine.

 

So let's give this fella a chance, shall we? As others have said, the temperature here could help prevent the spread, the amount of people wearing facemasks could help prevent the spread too, as in Italy I don't believe many wore masks in the early stages?...

 

Anyhow, don't we all WANT him to be right in his conservative estimate? Or even overestimating the numbers?

[Thailand]

12 minutes ago, MaiDong said:

I remember when a Thai Scientist came forward and pronounced that Thailand would suffer(marginally) less than some other nations with rising sea levels. He turned out to be correct, despite many comments of derision - including mine.

 

So let's give this fella a chance, shall we? As others have said, the temperature here could help prevent the spread, the amount of people wearing facemasks could help prevent the spread too, as in Italy I don't believe many wore masks in the early stages?...

 

Anyhow, don't we all WANT him to be right in his conservative estimate? Or even overestimating the numbers?

I would like to agree with you but the chances we are already close to that figure of 3000.

[Wildliferescue]

If we are indeed at 3,000 by the end of April we are lucky. If people indeed engage all in social distancing we should be able to turn the tide. But before it gets better it will get worse first. Other countries see 30-35% increase per day, luckily we don’t see that here yet. 

[cornishcarlos]

Not sure about the rest of Thailand, but my wife tells me that the restaurants in our small town are open and packed... 

They don't seem to be paying any attention to the order to close or just do Take away !!

Either the numbers are much higher than reported/known or maybe the temp and humidity really is slowing this thing down ??

[TheAppletons]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

 

Tropical weather is lowering the R0 a lot. Otherwise Thailand with 5 times more Chinese tourists than Italy per year would have been a lot worse a month ago already. Coronavirus family seasonality:

 

 

 

coronaviruses.jfif 40.14 kB · 8 downloads

18 March - 212 cases

 

21 March - 411 cases

 

24 March - 824 cases 

 

Confirmed cases have been doubling every three days.  Does that look to you like tropical weather is lowering the R0?

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no75-180363.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no78-210363.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no81-240363.pdf

[smudger1951]

Whatever the projected number of infections and deaths, I just want accurate stats.

[dinsdale]

Using the Chinese model. No where near reality aka the truth. Using Chinese test kits. Heard this morning that these kits are only 30% accurate.

Edited March 27, 2020 by dinsdale

[lamyai3]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

If the new infection rate averages 100 per day, and the public cooperates fully with the Government’s preventive directives, by staying at home and observing social distancing, he predicted that, by the end of April, total infections will be about 3,000.

A hundred a day, 30 days in April. He just worked it out on the calculator.

[pjuk]

I think he means the end of March.

 

[TheFishman1]

What he is selling is totally ridiculous TIT

[RJRS1301]

What medical/mathmatical modelling is the department using, the modeling used in other jurisdictions is 1:2.5 infections so 100 one day=200-250 next=500 next=1,000, that is 4 days, so how how does he get it so low. How many tests being carried out?

Of course some will be infected, and never be dianosed due to geographical location and lack of medical facilities 

[crazykopite]

 I think he means by the beginning of April which is next Wednesday.

[justaphase]

Umm, when it takes hold the number of infections will double every 3 days. Thailand is about 2 weeks behind the UK. They're just hitting 10,000, and the UK is 2 weeks behind Italy.

I've been following this since Jan 10th, can't anyone see the severity?

[jasonsamui55]

Even if it was a typo and he the writer mistakenly said 3000 per day, that would be hopelessly optimistic.  doubling every x days is simple math.

[jasonsamui55]

37 minutes ago, smudger1951 said:

Whatever the projected number of infections and deaths, I just want accurate stats.

There needs to be ubiquitous and free testing for that.  good luck.

[justaphase]

Only 70-80% or so would show any symptoms worth worrying about, so really the true infection number will be 5x.

Also making it impossible to control unless EVERYONE stays home for a month.