Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[MaiDong]

3 hours ago, Cranky said:

And you believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa?

No ????

[sitanonchai]

Guess they have already more then 30.000, they just don't know.

 

[Dutyfirst]

I am hoping that the heat and humidity is indeed a factor. Alot of posters are screaming here that Thailand are misreporting figures but if that is the case does that mean Singapore, Malaysia and other hot humid countries are also hiding their figures?  Go look at reports of current situation in the hospitals in NYC and Italy.  There are literally lines of sick people outside of hospitals. They have run out of ventilators. They have sick people overflowing in corridors. Nurses and doctors saying it looks like a war zone? So where are these people in Thailand? I used to help manage a foundation that gave nursing scholarships to Thai students which many of whom are now working in numerous hospitals both govt and private and the ones ive reached out to all say that they havnt seen some crazy surge in critically sick people.  Alot of them most of their negative pressure rooms arnt even being used. 

 

[Sunderland]

15 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

That is assuming that (a) people who are sick are tested, which excludes all those who feel that they don't have enough money (b) the real numbers are reported. Conservatively, there must be around 5% of total cases reported at the moment.

[Sunderland]

17 minutes ago, Dutyfirst said:

I am hoping that the heat and humidity is indeed a factor. Alot of posters are screaming here that Thailand are misreporting figures but if that is the case does that mean Singapore, Malaysia and other hot humid countries are also hiding their figures?  Go look at reports of current situation in the hospitals in NYC and Italy.  There are literally lines of sick people outside of hospitals. They have run out of ventilators. They have sick people overflowing in corridors. Nurses and doctors saying it looks like a war zone? So where are these people in Thailand? I used to help manage a foundation that gave nursing scholarships to Thai students which many of whom are now working in numerous hospitals both govt and private and the ones ive reached out to all say that they havnt seen some crazy surge in critically sick people.  Alot of them most of their negative pressure rooms arnt even being used. 

The W.H.O. will rightly need to shoulder a lot of criticism when investigations take place in the months and years to come, but the W.H.O. are right in one regards - you need to test, test and test. Not enough of that is being done in Thailand.

ASEAN Countries by TEST NUMBERS (March 26):

Singapore: 39,000
Vietnam:    30,548
Malaysia:   21,855
Thailand:   10,343
Philippines  2,147

 

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, Dutyfirst said:

There are literally lines of sick people outside of hospitals. They have run out of ventilators. They have sick people overflowing in corridors. Nurses and doctors saying it looks like a war zone? So where are these people in Thailand? 

They never got in even pre-pandemic: https://www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/587ccdaa-91a8-4305-a86f-30ea43558f0b/IO_Private_Hospital_190624_EN_EX.aspx

 

Quote

However, although state hospitals may be found across the
country, their ability to serve patients is limited in some
locations, as can be seen from the following: (i) The bed
occupancy rate3/ is high and in some areas is close to or over
100%. At present, the occupancy rate stands at 103% in Satun,
98% in Loei, 96% in Phuket, Mukdahan and Surat Thani, and 94%
in Udon Thani and Pathum Thani, so it appears that at least in
some areas, the supply of government hospital beds is
insufficient to meet demand; 

 

Turned back home from the door as usual.

[sikishrory]

"entertainment venues" why don't they name so people stop. 

So many cases from Bangla rd every day or 2nd day. 

 

[Nicknoodle]

As in China, the Thailand figures do not match. It’s either incompetence or creative accounting. Those that live or have lived in Thailand know that anything negative that makes the government look bad are manipulated to be less horrific. All those Bangkok workers now without jobs returning to their respective provinces will surely spike the numbers in cases right? Maybe not because those provinces are less likely to be able to adequately test symptomatic patients and even less likely to report cases. No one will ever know the full worldwide extent of covid-19. 

[Curt1591]

The numbers will depend on how many test kits Thailand can get.

[stuhan]

For your info tayaout I do understand  exponential spread, It was part of my Human biology studies i spent 4 yrs to graduate from.There are many other factors involved in growth rates of bacteria and virus's,not only how often they multiply.My figure was based on x  factor since sunday 15th to 27th march which shows appx x9 growth rate,that's what i believe the figure MIGHT BE as i said it would depend on many other factors,whatever lets wait and see.Your figure was for end of april so that has no comparison to mine.

Take care yourself

[FarFlungFalang]

16 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

  With an average 5.1 day incubation period before symptoms present, we should start seeing a surge of symptomatic cases in the provinces as a result of the weekend exodus from Bangkok just around now. 

You won’t see a surge of cases out here in the provinces or a surge in deaths from the covid 19 because they won’t test,you might see a surge in the number of funerals though.

[FarFlungFalang]

15 minutes ago, Curt1591 said:

The numbers will depend on how many test kits Thailand can get.

The numbers depend more on how many they use not how many they can get.

[Hanuman2547]

3,000 cases by the end of April?  Here in King County in Washington State USA we have 1828 cases and 125 deaths as of 3:30pm this afternoon.  I can only imagine what are numbers will look like at the end of April.  

[watthong]

6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

6 hours ago, Curt1591 said:

The numbers will depend on how many test kits Thailand can get.

The numbers depend more on how many they use not how many they can get.

Thank you.

I keep doing my public services by pointing out that there is no such thing as "new infections per day." Real "new infections per day" is unknown until everybody gets tested. Right now that is not the case anywhere, because no where has had total population tested. So what they mean "new infections per day" is the number of tests coming back positive per day. If they want to "keep the number low" (a la Trump,) they just limit the number of tests. Say if they want to keep "new infections per day" by no more than 100, then they only do 100 tests and voila, "new" infection couldn't be more than 100, could it?

In other words, how fast or wide the virus is spreading we are still in the dark about it. That's why we are staying isolated and hopefully out of reach from those who are shredding the virus. New infections per day or how high/low is the infection rate are just mumbo jumbo from the government/news outlets. They can keep the number low or high depending on how much of the iceberg they want to see with their flashlight on.

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, Nicknoodle said:

As in China, the Thailand figures do not match. It’s either incompetence or creative accounting. 

I actually think the medical facilities ( excluding government hospitals in sticks ) are not so bad in Thailand. So I'd go for the "creative accounting", especially since both WHO reference laboratories doing the confirmations are either under army or government control: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-reference-laboratories-providing-confirmatory-testing-for-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a03a01e6_2

 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, watthong said:

In other words, how fast or wide the virus is spreading we are still in the dark about it. 

The pending results number in the Thai reports, currently at 6719 people ( https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no84-270363.pdf ), is one of the indicators that make more sense, however to get included in that number, you have to pass a fairly restrictive criteria ( https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf ) :

 

 

If I had to guess, 40-50k cases in Thailand at least. Most can't get in through the hospital door because they don't fulfill the criteria. Also the reason why we first saw confirmations for those that had travelled and from the clusters. They got into the test queue because they fit in 1 a-c or 2.

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[tso310]

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I actually think the medical facilities ( excluding government hospitals in sticks ) are not so bad in Thailand.

Plenty of hospitals have had major building upgrades but the problem is and its been reported in the Thai press many times, there are not enough doctors, nurses and lab staff to service the increased number of beds. A lot of the building took place prior to the election. 

[Reigntax]

On 3/27/2020 at 11:04 AM, ouredd said:

But they can count money

Especially other people's who they hope will soon be their own.

[Number 6]

I think with that fail to foresee all the poors running for busses upcountry all bets are off. That was 10 boxing stadiums, then all got on busses, mixed again and sat together sharing same closed AC system for 12 hours.

 

Young people at work and play not distancing themselves.

 

All bets off.