Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, cdemundo said:

As I understand it social distancing may not change the total number of people who ultimately become infected.  The idea is to prevent rampant early infections that overwhelm the medical system and increase the number of deaths from other causes as well as from COVID virus.  If you are really interested in this question you could look at one of multiple accounts online of the difference in the effects of social distancing as practiced by Philadelphia vs. St. Louis during the 1918 flu pandemic.

Here are some links to back up what you wrote. Very convincing.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17684187

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, cdemundo said:

As I understand it social distancing may not change the total number of people who ultimately become infected.  The idea is to prevent rampant early infections that overwhelm the medical system and increase the number of deaths from other causes as well as from COVID virus.  If you are really interested in this question you could look at one of multiple accounts online of the difference in the effects of social distancing as practiced by Philadelphia vs. St. Louis during the 1918 flu pandemic.

I am well aware of the Philadelphia and St Louis stories. Unfortunately that is not the virus, not the same illness. Transmission of Covid19 is rather different to transmission of influenza viruses, as we are seeing in real time. The cause may be the much larger asymptomatic spread. Every virus has its own story in its interaction with humans.

 

The situation in Italy is particularly dramatic. Over 10,000 people have died.

 

Yet Italy has the strictest social distancing in place today.

 

What does that tell you?

 

No, social distancing will not change the number of infected. In fact there is no academic study that it shows it ends a Covid19 transmission period or slows it signficantly. Neither you nor any of your buddies were able to give me an hard data, study or paper from a reputable source on whether social distancing works with Covid19. One study from China which I linked earlier (thanks cleopatra) tried to analyse the effect of one social distancing strategy, restricting travel. They found that it was estimated that isolating the entire city of Wuhan bought the rest of China 3 days, however, they also said they could not really attribute exact measures of reduction in transmission to each intervention measure. Remember this was after the dust cleared in Wuhan and there was some data. 

 

Now all the social distancing believers have is modelling (and studies for influenza, which again can not be carried over one to one). But modelling is the predicting of the future without all the data. It is bound to make mistakes. And these mistakes have happened. See the Guardians' heavy criticism of the IC model.

 

There are two strategies, containment and delay. German, SKorea and others chose containment, isolating and identifying carriers. The UK has chosen delay. Not because it is the better option, but because they had no other choice, as they did not have enough test kits they could not choose the German or Korean model. Yes, a lot of the countries that have chosen containment have also added social distancing, now that thanks to the UK it is in such vogue, but their initial successes all were from testing and isolating.

 

Best case scenario is that social distancing delays Covid19 transmission by a little. What does that mean. Well, depends on your perspective.

 

"British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

So let that sink in, all "non-urgent" operations cancelled for 3 months (probably 12 or 18 months really) so that they can get the beds for Covid19. Care for all other patient will be compromised, including critical or near critical cases. Yet doctors can not save a lot of Covid19 patients, no therapy, no vaccine, no basic materials. So what will the delay accomplish? It will most likely kill more people than if the NHS would have had a short sharp shock, of course most of those people will not be Covid19 patients.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Here are some links to back up what you wrote. Very convincing.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17684187

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

Those are all studies for influenza viruses, not for coronaviruses.

 

Influenza viruses are different to coronaviruses. One of the key differences is transmission, the very centerpiece of social distancing. It would appear, as we see in real time every day, that Covid19 is vastly more successful in spreading than influenza. Most likely because of the very large (Iceland study says 50%) proportion of asymptomatic carriers who spread the virus.

 

Since the spread of Covid19 is much faster, the models based on influenza viruses are probably wrong. 

 

Keep looking, maybe there is a study on social distancing and Covid19, you never know. Would be a lot more useful.

[heybruce]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

I am well aware of the Philadelphia and St Louis stories. Unfortunately that is not the virus, not the same illness. Transmission of Covid19 is rather different to transmission of influenza viruses, as we are seeing in real time. The cause may be the much larger asymptomatic spread. Every virus has its own story in its interaction with humans.

 

The situation in Italy is particularly dramatic. Over 10,000 people have died.

 

Yet Italy has the strictest social distancing in place today.

 

What does that tell you?

 

No, social distancing will not change the number of infected. In fact there is no academic study that it shows it ends a Covid19 transmission period or slows it signficantly. Neither you nor any of your buddies were able to give me an hard data, study or paper from a reputable source on whether social distancing works with Covid19. One study from China which I linked earlier (thanks cleopatra) tried to analyse the effect of one social distancing strategy, restricting travel. They found that it was estimated that isolating the entire city of Wuhan bought the rest of China 3 days, however, they also said they could not really attribute exact measures of reduction in transmission to each intervention measure. Remember this was after the dust cleared in Wuhan and there was some data. 

 

Now all the social distancing believers have is modelling (and studies for influenza, which again can not be carried over one to one). But modelling is the predicting of the future without all the data. It is bound to make mistakes. And these mistakes have happened. See the Guardians' heavy criticism of the IC model.

 

There are two strategies, containment and delay. German, SKorea and others chose containment, isolating and identifying carriers. The UK has chosen delay. Not because it is the better option, but because they had no other choice, as they did not have enough test kits they could not choose the German or Korean model. Yes, a lot of the countries that have chosen containment have also added social distancing, now that thanks to the UK it is in such vogue, but their initial successes all were from testing and isolating.

 

Best case scenario is that social distancing delays Covid19 transmission by a little. What does that mean. Well, depends on your perspective.

 

"British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

So let that sink in, all "non-urgent" operations cancelled for 3 months (probably 12 or 18 months really) so that they can get the beds for Covid19. Care for all other patient will be compromised, including critical or near critical cases. Yet doctors can not save a lot of Covid19 patients, no therapy, no vaccine, no basic materials. So what will the delay accomplish? It will most likely kill more people than if the NHS would have had a short sharp shock, of course most of those people will not be Covid19 patients.

 

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

Those are all studies for influenza viruses, not for coronaviruses.

 

Influenza viruses are different to coronaviruses. One of the key differences is transmission, the very centerpiece of social distancing. It would appear, as we see in real time every day, that Covid19 is vastly more successful in spreading than influenza. Most likely because of the very large (Iceland study says 50%) proportion of asymptomatic carriers who spread the virus.

 

Since the spread of Covid19 is much faster, the models based on influenza viruses are probably wrong. 

 

Keep looking, maybe there is a study on social distancing and Covid19, you never know. Would be a lot more useful.

You demand data and studies showing that social distancing works, then, when presented with such, insist it doesn't apply because the data and studies are from a different viral disease spread person to person.

 

Bull.  Show us statements from experts who agree with you on that. 

 

Your repeated and repeatedly refuted arguments that massively overwhelmed hospitals over a few months are preferable to less overwhelmed hospitals over a longer period are no more persuasive now than after before.

[simple1]

16 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

it seems you need to go back to brushing up on basic English.

Because Trump actually speaks better English than you....hard to imagine

given his history.

That is a very precise statement.

"Anyone who needs a test can get a test."

 

It doesnt say anyone who "wants" a test can get one.

It leaves the assessment of 'need' to a competent medical authority.

It doesnt offer a time window....ie. anyone who needs a test can get one 

in under 6 hours. 

 

So you see... its a perfect statement. However CNN and its zombie followers 

prefer to ignore this and display a pro grasp of English grammar.

 

Same like the WAPO reporter who took trumps hoax remark way out of context

and apologised for it. He is suing anyone who uses that misinformation in their ads.

 

Dont try to outsmart trump...hes way smarter than you are bud.

 

Stay at home and wash your hands.

What trump actually said on March 6th was...

 

"Anybody that wants a test can get a test. That’s what the bottom line is," Trump told reporters March 6 during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.  However he added...

 

that anybody that needs a test gets one.

 

A major issue at the time and ongoing was insufficient Covid screening kits for community screening in order to assist with reducing the risk to transmission. For a number of weeks prior trump admin had invested in dismissing the overall risk, attacking persons / institutions who were raising the alarm, trump is still adding to confusion by his knee jerk announcements e.g. regards NY.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

[JHolmesJr]

39 minutes ago, simple1 said:

A major issue at the time and ongoing was insufficient Covid screening kits for community screening in order to assist with reducing the risk to transmission.

 

Good to see Spain, Italy got theirs right on time.....and had to return them back to china as they were junk.

Trump held out for a better more reliable test. OMG...hes baaaad! LOL

[cantaloupe]

In its latest estimates on flu impact for the 2019 season, the CDC said influenza in the US has sickened from 36 million to 41.3 million people this season through Apr 13, of whom 16.7 million to 19.4 million sought medical care. In addition, the disease has hospitalized 502,000 to 610,000 patients and killed 34,400 to 57,300.

 

So well worth locking the world down, destroying the global economy, entrenching families into debt and despair, causing unknown social problems for decades to come then.

Edited March 29, 2020 by cantaloupe
edit text

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, cantaloupe said:

In its latest estimates on flu impact for the 2019 season, the CDC said influenza in the US has sickened from 36 million to 41.3 million people this season through Apr 13, of whom 16.7 million to 19.4 million sought medical care. In addition, the disease has hospitalized 502,000 to 610,000 patients and killed 34,400 to 57,300.

 

So well worth locking the world down, destroying the global economy, entrenching families into debt and despair, causing unknown social problems for decades to come then.

You sure about the flu deaths are not corona virus related? CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said it’s possible that some flu deaths may be misdiagnosed and could actually had corona virus. 

Lock down work. 2 months of tough medicine in China work. FED is promising infinite QE and so are governments around the world. Better short pain than prolong uncertainty. 

[samran]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

Please advise how you 'debunked' the facts in my post. Your reply was atypical trump supporter deflection.

Debunked coz he said its debunked?

 

No actual proof necessary. His very own reality distortion field!

[cantaloupe]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

You sure about the flu deaths are not corona virus related? CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said it’s possible that some flu deaths may be misdiagnosed and could actually had corona virus. 

Lock down work. 2 months of tough medicine in China work. FED is promising infinite QE and so are governments around the world. Better short pain than prolong uncertainty. 

Yes this was from the 2018 - 2019 USA influenza season - these statistics were published in April 2019 long before Covid19 had been first detected. There has been no official study that clearly shows the lockdown in China worked, merely delayed the spread by a matter of days. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Well well... Fauci finally stood up to Trump directly... Now I guess the only question is, how long before Trump fires him like he's done with all those that have gone before...

 

Quote

 

U.S. virus deaths could reach 200,000, Fauci warns as medical supplies run short

March 29 (Reuters) - U.S. deaths from coronavirus could reach 200,000 with millions of cases, the government's top infectious diseases expert warned on Sunday as New York, New Orleans and other major cities warned they would soon run out of medical supplies.
 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimated in an interview with CNN that the pandemic could cause between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the United States.
...

A shortage of ventilators in several major cities worsened as the U.S. death count crossed 2,100 on Saturday, more than double the level from two days ago. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/us-virus-deaths-could-reach-200000-fauci-warns-as-medical-supplies-run-short-idUSKBN21G0ME

 

[gamb00ler]

3 hours ago, cantaloupe said:

Yes this was from the 2018 - 2019 USA influenza season - these statistics were published in April 2019 long before Covid19 had been first detected. There has been no official study that clearly shows the lockdown in China worked, merely delayed the spread by a matter of days. 

It seems many here don't put much faith in official studies.  Do you?

It's likely that China knows that the lockdown didn't/won't prevent the spread of COVID19 over the long term.  But it was a very effective way to spread the demand on health system resources over a longer period to prevent deaths from a shortage of critical facilities and staff.

 

Do you see that result being cost effective ?

Edited March 29, 2020 by gamb00ler

[simple1]

11 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

Good to see Spain, Italy got theirs right on time.....and had to return them back to china as they were junk.

Trump held out for a better more reliable test. OMG...hes baaaad! LOL

Again, nonsense from a trump supporter. The Spanish Covid kit supply issue was not identified til Mid March, Accordingly, Spanish situation would not have had any bearing on trump administration decisions until Mid March. Unless of course you are claiming trump did nothing regards Covid kits until Mid March?

 

 

[metisdead]

A post containing an off topic video that has been removed previously has been removed again as well as the replies. 

 

Some insulting, inflammatory posts and replies have been removed. 

 

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

[mtls2005]

President Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday for the first time that deaths in the United States from coronavirus could reach 100,000 or more, adding that if the death toll stays at or below 100,000, "we all together have done a very good job."

 

"Good job"

 

He also hedged, mentioning "100,000 or 200,000" being considered a success.

 

 

 

[samran]

35 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

President Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday for the first time that deaths in the United States from coronavirus could reach 100,000 or more, adding that if the death toll stays at or below 100,000, "we all together have done a very good job."

 

"Good job"

 

He also hedged, mentioning "100,000 or 200,000" being considered a success.

 

 

 

Given who we are talking about, it’s probably a miracle that more of his own citizens aren’t going to die on his watch.

 

But not to worry, give it time, and he’ll blame it all on immigrants or something. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by samran

[cmarshall]

16 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

You sure about the flu deaths are not corona virus related? CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said it’s possible that some flu deaths may be misdiagnosed and could actually had corona virus. 

 

In addition, any pneumonia deaths in excess of the seasonal normal should be counted as corona.

[cmarshall]

My expectation is that corona deaths in the US will be over two million and that the pandemic may last closer to two years than to a few months.

[Rimmer]

Off topic inflammatory troll post removed

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Trump eats his words/reverses course... AGAIN!!!!   But at least this time, it's to do the right thing....

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/president-trump-extends-social-distancing-guidance-until-end-of-april/2020/03/29/5799f262-71e8-11ea-a9bd-9f8b593300d0_story.html

 

Quote

President Trump extends social distancing guidance until end of April

Days after President Trump said he hoped the country would be “opened up and raring to go” by Easter, he instead announced on Sunday an extension of federal guidance on social distancing through April, in a continued effort to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

 

It was an abrupt reversal for the president, who last week tweeted that “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” amid a volatile stock market and record applications for unemployment benefits. He made comparisons to car crashes and “a very bad flu season,” downplaying the virus’s potential death toll.

 

But public health experts widely scoffed at Trump’s idea of packed churches and bustling businesses by Easter on April 12. The nation has reached more than 136,000 confirmed cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and more than 2,400 related deaths — with numbers continuing to climb across the country.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

My expectation is that corona deaths in the US will be over two million and that the pandemic may last closer to two years than to a few months.

That seems way too high. Not even Italy's count supports that prediction. Nobody really knows for even reasonably sure. Here's a good article from five thirty eight about the uncertainty:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

[JHolmesJr]

not a good time to be in the prediction business. period.

[bristolboy]

9 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

not a good time to be in the prediction business. period.

And a really bad time to be making predictions based on hope for the best. Especially,if you're the POTUS.

[JHolmesJr]

7 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

And a really bad time to be making predictions based on hope for the best. Especially,if you're the POTUS.

 

no.....he is doing the right thing by not sounding like a doom merchant...ie. you.

[lannarebirth]

50 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

no.....he is doing the right thing by not sounding like a doom merchant...ie. you.

 

The absolutey worst thing that could happen to Trump is that 200 million people so engaged in eeking out a living, who had no time previously  to witness this shambolic presidency, are now tuning in.

[Nyezhov]

16 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

The absolutey worst thing that could happen to Trump is that 200 million people so engaged in eeking out a living, who had no time previously  to witness this shambolic presidency, are now tuning in.

And the polls  reflect that right?

[lannarebirth]

Just now, Nyezhov said:

And the polls  reflect that right?

 

I thought you guys didn't believe in polls?  Anyhow, W's approval rating peaked at 92% after 9/11. So, take that, for what it's worth.

[Nyezhov]

6 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I thought you guys didn't believe in polls?  Anyhow, W's approval rating peaked at 92% after 9/11. So, take that, for what it's worth.

I only speak for myself, and I really look askance at any polls, but never just out of hand reject the ones that dont agree with my perception, or make excuses. You love polls, Im sure...except......

 

See now if Gallup has a margin of error of 5 +/-, that means our President could be catching the applause from 65% of the population.....

Edited March 30, 2020 by Nyezhov

[lannarebirth]

2 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

I really look askance at any polls myself, but never just out of hand reject the ones that dont agree with my perception, or make excuses. You love polls, Im sure...except......

 

No, I ignore polls. I think it was you that brought it up.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

no.....he is doing the right thing by not sounding like a doom merchant...ie. you.

Condemning Trump's foolish expressions of optimisim does not make one "doom merchant" Once again here is my reply to someone who feared there would be 2 million deaths from the virus:

 

"That seems way too high. Not even Italy's count supports that prediction. Nobody really knows for even reasonably sure. Here's a good article from five thirty eight about the uncertainty:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/"