It is 1.06 actually. Still not bad ...So Far""

12 hours ago, sezze said:

There are different strains around of Covid , 1 being more deadly then the other . Many countries in Europe seem to have the more deadly strain , since death rate Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10% . While others in Europe ( and world ) got very low death rate . I take Europe as example since all countries next to each other , and healthcare / counting / measures taken are more or less same ( yes i know , not all the same ) . Is this the case also i Thailand , idk , but i expect it is like that , otherwise the hospitals would already be overwhelmed or have deaths everywhere , even if they not counted as Covid .

Please furnish us with any definitive research that states there are multiple strains and that one is more deadly than the other. It is a corona virus which by it's very nature will change but this does not imply that the strain has mutated or there is increase in strength.

This low percentage is the result of a don't test don't tell policy. Have you seen any testing facilities where a sample of the general population are being tested and I don't mean having your temp. taken. I haven't. These results I believe are only from those who have presented to hospitals. 

Edited April 6, 20206 yr by dinsdale

11 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

I read somewhere that Australia has the best testing rate in the world, with over 1,000 tested per 100,000 population. This is obviously one reason the death rate is so low. For Thailand that would require 600,000 tests. Anyone know the true Thai figures, or is this another secret in the interest of "national security"?

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/?fbclid=IwAR1bAH4qDAZtWkdh2MVwAiFmow9lAtRFg78vPSZKr76__ezADDlBNwYHTyk

Try this site .

16 hours ago, Thailand said:

So is the mortality rate so low because of the lack of testing or despite of the lack of testing？

 

All of the above plus: deliberate denial, deliberate mis- and non-reporting, under-reporting, etc.

 

"oh ho, Somchai: well, he was sick long time, hospital no like, mai phen rai."

 

~o:37;

These underlying conditions could be prevented if Thai people would change their diet.  Why is nobody talking about the absurdly HIGH rate of diabetes sand HIGH blood pressure among thai people?

The death rate, as calculated for other pandemics, is the number of dead divided by the total population. So, for Thailand, 20 divided by 70 million.

 

Using the data from Italy the base rate probability of survival(not death) is 99.998% for all individuals.

 

This base rate probability of survival would then have to be adjusted up or down depending on age and health issues for each individual.

The quoted death rate has two major flaws:   (a) not knowing the total number of individuals infected because of inadequate testing (as others have mentioned, and (b) failing to recognise that some of those infected but not yet dead may well still die.  In other words, it's fairly meaningless.

 

The simple percentage appears to be based upon something close to Sunday's reported numbers.  23 dead, 2,169 cases.  23/2169*100 = 1.06%

Yes, well, the known mortality rate in Spain is 10%. In the U.S. it's increased from 1.5 to 3% of what we can see, but the actual rate is far higher because a lot of people have died at home or in hospitals from pneumonia not even knowing what was wrong with them.

Edited April 6, 20206 yr by Dustdevil

2 minutes ago, Oxx said:

The quoted death rate has two major flaws:   (a) not knowing the total number of individuals infected because of inadequate testing (as others have mentioned, and (b) failing to recognise that some of those infected but not yet dead may well still die.  In other words, it's fairly meaningless.

 

The simple percentage appears to be based upon something close to Sunday's reported numbers.  23 dead, 2,169 cases.  23/2169*100 = 1.06%

Correct. These cases are what Donald Rumsfeld would call the known unknowns. Current stats based just on confirmed cases are meaningless, particularly because many who have already died were never tested.

11 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

So of the 20 deceased, 10 had pre-existing conditions which is a basically a death sentence if your unlucky enough to get Covid-19.

 

Not good news for those of us who have pre-existing condition/s.

 

Not going anywhere and not allowing any visitors

 

Highly unlikely for at least a year

 

Just got to stay in as much as possible and wait for a vaccine, i.e. if it will give us (those with pre-existing conditions) a break to go back to a normal life.

 

 

We may be waiting in vain for a vaccine; hard to tell. HIV was a novel virus and no vaccine has been found after 40 years. Those two viruses are not like influenza. But I hope I'm wrong.

18 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

The figures are low, but the figures on testing are low, so what would the real figure be if you did mass testing. ????

Very scary... like it is in the west.

The government know the testing rates is woefully low and also know the true number of infections are much higher.

Think of why they are leaking the news regarding measures of a complete curfew.

18 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

This only for people actually diagnosed as having the virus, after being actually tested, which is not a true figure.

like everywhere in the world... how can you do otherwise???

Test all the people who dye, then make an autopsy to determine if Covid 19 was the reasons of their death???

The true figures everywhere in the world will be known several months after this pandemic is over, so be prepared for a long wait but it will also come with serology test that will show how much it was spread.

my theory on low mortality rate / known cases;

 

many covid positive untested die first from head trauma while riding motorbikes with face masks but no helmets

 

a "darwin skewed" curve

 

 

Edited April 6, 20206 yr by atyclb

The number infected and thus the death rate won’t be known for months, probably years until after the pandemic is over. All we can see now is how many died.

11 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

An interesting point - Expose yourself early... Either you are ok, or if not ok, you have access to ICU / Respirator etc  as the healthcare system is not yet overwhelmed. 

 

Another view point: 

You have a bowl which contains 100 M&M’s. 10 of them will make you quite unwell (strong flu symptoms), 1 of them will kill you.

 

Would you gamble and take one M&M ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

That is not the proper way to look at it. The odds differ by person. If you have a pre-existing conditions, your odds of dying jump up significantly. In the US that is 60% of the population. In a malnourished country, even more. Seniors are 15-20% of the population in the US. Again, odds of dying jump up significantly. So how much of a population is young and healthy? Probably 20-30% of the population, Even then some have died from it. So how many will gamble on it? Not many.

14 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Well, to be more accurate, 0.97% of reported infections turn out to be fatal.

 

I and a number of other people think that the government has deliberately under-tested and under-reported for cosmetic purposes.

 

Which make any statistics they produce worthless. Better to adopt the global numbers. Not all countries are the same.

 

 

Of course you are perfectly free to believe the situation is not being monitored.

 

THAILAND SITUATION in the last 24 hours 2,169 confirmed (102 new) 23 deaths (3 new) 1,472 people hospitalized 37 healthcare staff infected (2 new) 23 severe cases 674 recovered

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/searo/thailand/2020-04-5-tha-sitrep-43-covid19.pdf?sfvrsn=cec9ff8_0

1 hour ago, Dustdevil said:

We may be waiting in vain for a vaccine; hard to tell. HIV was a novel virus and no vaccine has been found after 40 years. Those two viruses are not like influenza. But I hope I'm wrong.

Quite, those looking to a drug related solution should remember Thalidomide.

19 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

This only for people actually diagnosed as having the virus, after being actually tested, which is not a true figure.

How many "true" figures are there? Many health experts are sceptical about the "official" data, not least that relating to deaths among elderly folk and those with underlying life-threatening conditions. As was revealed by a study of mortality rates in Italy, many deaths attributed COVID 19 were in fact due to other causes, yet wrongly attributed to the virus.

Sample size is too small to be relevant.  Just trying to make everyone feel safe!

Twenty deaths with underlying conditions.... not exactly the Black Death is it ?   How many dead on the roads everyday and not a blink of an eye lid.....?    There'll be more people topping themselves through fear and desperation than the virus has contributed to peoples deaths.   

11 minutes ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Twenty deaths with underlying conditions.... not exactly the Black Death is it ?   How many dead on the roads everyday and not a blink of an eye lid.....?    There'll be more people topping themselves through fear and desperation than the virus has contributed to peoples deaths.   

Exactly, this mass hysteria and totalitarian control of people is getting really scary.  

 

Such a small percentage of people die if they get this virus, and the vase majority of those that do are already on deaths door, and would just as easily die from any other disease they caught.  

 

As for young or healthy people, the danger is virtually zero.  Yes, there are some rare cases, but young healthy people can also die from many other disease that are usually not harmful, like the flu or chicken pox.

 

What many people are getting confused with is the number of 'cases' vs the number or 'deaths'.  They seem to think that if someone gets the virus they will die.  

 

if the authorities only reported the number of deaths and not cases then there would be a lot less panic.  And, also compared the deaths from this virus with the numbers of deaths from other things, such as heart attacks, flu, cancer, etc etc.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 20206 yr by jak2002003

The death rate is very now, the infected numbers as well, my opinion is, that the daraus are not complete and the truth. Otherwise no testing sure makes less corona case ....the problem in Thailand is, that nobody knows what are the real datas as the government would never release the right datas.

Also where do the datas come crom, how are they collected and and and.......the ever problem in Thailand is the NON TRANSPARANYY

The only way that the world will know a better number is by comparing average monthly/yearly deaths with 2020 deaths and examining the spike. 

 

 

Hello,

 

This percentage rate of 0.97 % is VERY FALSE !! For 3 Reasons.

 

1. The amount of people STILL NOT !! Tested in Thailand, Just like many places in the World.

 

2. Asymptomatic Carriers of Covid-19 showing no visible signs of the Virus and are carriers still spreading the virus !! 

3. These issues will adjust a much higher percentage after the Apex has been reached , Deaths will rise significantly !!

Edited April 6, 20206 yr by Robert Tyrrell
Edit

20 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

The actual mortality rate is even lower, as there are guaranteed to be a lot more un-diagnosed cases out there...

Do you Really think they are telling you the true numbers of people dying from the virus. 

16 hours ago, sezze said:

There are different strains around of Covid , 1 being more deadly then the other . Many countries in Europe seem to have the more deadly strain , since death rate Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10% . While others in Europe ( and world ) got very low death rate . I take Europe as example since all countries next to each other , and healthcare / counting / measures taken are more or less same ( yes i know , not all the same ) . Is this the case also i Thailand , idk , but i expect it is like that , otherwise the hospitals would already be overwhelmed or have deaths everywhere , even if they not counted as Covid .

Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10%. ! in 10, what the f..k are you talking about.

1 minute ago, Syduan said:

Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10%. ! in 10, what the f..k are you talking about.

 

Because they aren't testing nearly enough people !! If half the population actually have the virus then it's not 10% is it... 

Keep people scared and under control ????

11 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

Do you Really think they are telling you the true numbers of people dying from the virus. 

 

Well you can make up testing numbers but you can't really hide 1000s of bodies, if there are 1000s dying... Plus relatives of the deceased would be kicking up sheet all over social media...

Reported post removed.

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Because they aren't testing nearly enough people !! If half the population actually have the virus then it's not 10% is it... 

Keep people scared and under control ????

Most people have a strain of the corona virus so a lot of tests prove positive but the chances of having Covid 19 are virtually 0 and the vast majority of people who die are on deaths door step already, it's a massive scam.