Some numbers to put things into perspective

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

The doctors who have access to the top politicians are not the top of the crop, and many among the latter disagree with the former (I opened a thread about this last week). 

 

For example, Pr Raoult is against the lock down/stay at home, and recommend the use of chloroquine, which is rejected by the French government and its medical advisors. 

 

 

Yes, i pretty much agree with Mr. Raoult view of things, unfortunately he is in the minority.

There is much disagreement among scientists, but that's rarely highlighted by the mainstream media.

[chessman]

9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Where? 

 

Certainly not here in Thailand... I went to Ubon today for some shopping... the city is asleep... there is maybe 25% of the usual activity. 

 

In Europe, satellite pictures show that most of the atmospheric pollution has disappeared, which wouldn't be the case if the industry was working at 80%.

 

In the US, Ford and GM have closed all their factories, which means that all their suppliers have done the same... Boeing has also stopped production... Las Vegas is dead... 

According to Fitch Ratings. See here https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/deep-global-recession-in-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-escalates-02-04-2020

 

I quote "The lockdown policies being implemented to control the spread of the virus are having instantaneous and dramatic effects on daily economic activity. Nationwide lockdowns look to be reducing daily activity by about 20% from normal levels"

 

Thailand will probably be more than 20% because of tourism but most of Ubon's economic activity would not be taking place in its shops.

 

If you look at their GDP forecasts they are bad, but the economy is not stopping.

 

 

[Throatwobbler]

3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Of course and I fully support measures restricting movements between countries.

 

But, after about 3 months, it is becoming clear that certain populations (caucasians) are more at risk than others.

 

It also appears that the climate is playing a role, with much less cases in hot countries than in cooler ones.

 

Thus, each country should play according to the cards it holds, rather than to the cards held by others...

Not just caucasians.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-deaths-black-community-racism-tests-chicago-lori-lightfoot-a9451441.html

 

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, chessman said:

This seems to be over simplifying things. He had promising results in a very small trial. When the trial was repeated in a more systematic way the results were disappointing. Or are the media lying about this too?

He is not making any trial, he treats patients as they come, and as of last week, he had successfully treated over a thousand with chloroquine and antibiotics.

 

This method is now being followed in many places, starting with the US, with the support of Trump...

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Brunolem

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, chessman said:

According to Fitch Ratings. See here https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/deep-global-recession-in-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-escalates-02-04-2020

 

I quote "The lockdown policies being implemented to control the spread of the virus are having instantaneous and dramatic effects on daily economic activity. Nationwide lockdowns look to be reducing daily activity by about 20% from normal levels"

 

Thailand will probably be more than 20% because of tourism but most of Ubon's economic activity would not be taking place in its shops.

 

If you look at their GDP forecasts they are bad, but the economy is not stopping.

 

 

There is the economy, and then there is the productive economy.

 

In many countries, notably in the West, the non productive public (paper pushers) sector represents a large part of the economy, more than 50% of it in France, for example.

 

And this part keeps on running...as well as agriculture.

 

Also, economists cannot calculate the economic activity in real time...they need data, which takes time to come, and so this 80% figure is probably weeks old.

 

James Bullard, from the US Federal Reserve, predicted a 50% GDP fall for the second quarter.

 

When it's all said and done, the economy depends on consumers, and it cannot run at 80% when consumers are locked at home...

[Nip]

19 hours ago, xylophone said:

Ah numbers.............and just yesterday I was talking to a friend on the phone and trying to put into perspective the chances of catching and then dying from Covid here.

 

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

 

There are loads of figures out there about people who have contracted the virus and the percentage that have died as a direct result (or as near as can be ascertained) but nowhere have I found that my chance of dying of it here, and by that I mean catching it and then dying from it, are...... what?? 

Perhaps you could explain this theory of yours to Borris Johnson?

[gk10002000]

20 hours ago, Brunolem said:

As of now, there are 1,346,566 cases worldwide, with 74,697 deaths.

You do not know that there were 1,346,566 cases.  That number only means there are that many known that tested positive presumably.  Millions of other people did not report, or had no or few symptoms, etc. but no doubt had or even have the virus. 

[Brunolem]

9 hours ago, chessman said:

This seems to be over simplifying things. He had promising results in a very small trial. When the trial was repeated in a more systematic way the results were disappointing. Or are the media lying about this too?

Below is another example.

 

The main "problem" with this treatment is that it costs peanuts, and the pharmaceutical industry, very active in political circles, would rather make a ton of money with new, expensive treatments.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/while-left-continues-pan-trump-touted-treatment-another-doctor-reports-dramatic-improvement

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

You do not know that there were 1,346,566 cases.  That number only means there are that many known that tested positive presumably.  Millions of other people did not report, or had no or few symptoms, etc. but no doubt had or even have the virus. 

We have to work with the numbers we are given.

 

Personally, I think that the number of infected is far larger, and has been for some time, which would be good because it would reduce the apparent mortality rate.

[FarFlungFalang]

9 hours ago, chessman said:

 

it is of course impossible to know but I think it is likely that letting the virus infect (almost) everyone would be much worse for the economy, especially in the medium and long term.

The way that most countries waited for community spread to be established before implementing measures indicates incompetence or neglect or both.

[FarFlungFalang]

6 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We have to work with the numbers we are given.

Says who?And I don't mean the World Health Organisation or do I?Perhaps I mean both when I think about it.

[Emdog]

The major flaws with this analysis and numbers are assumptions  all countries have same capabilities in gathering real world data, and that those stats released by governments taken from "real data" are true. 

If those criteria are met, then perhaps conclusions drawn could be accurate

If not, then conclusions are just guessing

Garbage in garbage out

[ThaiPauly]

23 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We have to work with the numbers we are given.

 

Personally, I think that the number of infected is far larger, and has been for some time, which would be good because it would reduce the apparent mortality rate.

Agreed. I have a friend in the UK whose whole family got it.

Medics came to assess them, confirmed it was covid19 and although one was having breathing issues they would not take him to hospital

So there are 3 people I know with the virus, not counted, how many countless others?

They have all since recovered btw

[The Deerhunter]

20 hours ago, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

And why should we believe the published figure based on government truths to date and the almost guaranteed lack of competent testing?

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

He is not making any trial, he treats patients as they come, and as of last week, he had successfully treated over a thousand with chloroquine and antibiotics.

 

This method is now being followed in many places, starting with the US, with the support of Trump...

He did a small study (trial), someone spoke about that study on Fox news and Trump was watching and started talking about it. That study failed to meet the basic standards of medical trials but because it showed promise then further studies started and some doctors have been using it.  Results have been mixed.

You can read all about it here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/hydroxychloroquine-trump-coronavirus-drug

 

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the cure is already here but pharmacutical companies are blocking it because they want more more money.

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

 

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the cure is already here but pharmacutical companies are blocking it because they want more more money.

It is not the cure, but a cure.

 

As for the pharmaceutical industry, you can bet that they are doing their best to discredit a 20 dollar cure, in order to try and push forward a 2,000 dollar cure they have yet to come up with.

 

This is the world of big business, where money comes before lives...just ask Boeing...

 

[Brunolem]

41 minutes ago, Emdog said:

The major flaws with this analysis and numbers are assumptions  all countries have same capabilities in gathering real world data, and that those stats released by governments taken from "real data" are true. 

If those criteria are met, then perhaps conclusions drawn could be accurate

If not, then conclusions are just guessing

Garbage in garbage out

The numbers are obviously not exact, but the proportions are.

 

It is clear that a few countries make for the bulk of the cases.

 

And it is ridiculous to assume, like many do, that only a handful of governments are telling the truth, while all the others are hiding their real numbers.

 

[chessman]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is the economy, and then there is the productive economy.

 

In many countries, notably in the West, the non productive public (paper pushers) sector represents a large part of the economy, more than 50% of it in France, for example.

 

And this part keeps on running...as well as agriculture.

 

Also, economists cannot calculate the economic activity in real time...they need data, which takes time to come, and so this 80% figure is probably weeks old.

Fitch is a huge financial services company that countries around the world use to judge risk with credit. Their job is to analyze the economy. They are predicting that worldwide GDP will fall by 1.9% in 2020. That will be bad BUT IT IS NOT THE ECONOMY STOPPING. I think their judgement carries a little bit more weight than your distinctions between economies and productive economies and your observations about how quiet Ubon is.

Edited April 8, 2020 by chessman

[sometimewoodworker]

21 hours ago, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

And I know of a case that is in hospital that does not show on the report map and a number in another hospital that is about 5 times higher than the number given. So are these the exceptions? I think they are probably not.

[mrfill]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is the economy, and then there is the productive economy.

 

In many countries, notably in the West, the non productive public (paper pushers) sector represents a large part of the economy, more than 50% of it in France, for example.

 

And this part keeps on running...as well as agriculture.

 

Also, economists cannot calculate the economic activity in real time...they need data, which takes time to come, and so this 80% figure is probably weeks old.

 

James Bullard, from the US Federal Reserve, predicted a 50% GDP fall for the second quarter.

 

When it's all said and done, the economy depends on consumers, and it cannot run at 80% when consumers are locked at home...

80% of the UK GDP comes from financials. That area is hardly affected. The 'visible' producers like factories, shops etc are running at well under 50% so the total drop is more like 10%.

[Serindib]

The probability of dying from the virus, for all individuals, using the 15,000 dead out of a population of 59 million in Italy is 0.002%.

[Jimbo2014]

As of today Italy has tested 12,495 persons per 1 million population.  Thailand has tested 1030 per 1 million population according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.  Thats probably the most important piece of information missing from this article and speaks volumes.

[rudidep]

according to recent news, countries that have universal vaccination policies for tuberculosis (BCG vaccine) would be less affected by covid-19. This is the case for most countries in Asia. Most countries in Europe, and also US, do not universally vaccinate for TB, as TB is considered not a big threat there -- google 'BCG and Corona' for more info

[xylophone]

2 hours ago, Nip said:

Perhaps you could explain this theory of yours to Borris Johnson?

It was not a theory, just a request for another set of stats........and do you mean Boris Johnson?

[1FinickyOne]

19 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

I wonder why all this end of the world cinema. I wonder what is really playing out there

maybe you just ate some bad seafood? 

[justin case]

just check deaths of last year march (any country) with now ...

 

hardly a big dent ...

 

people die of many causes 

 

hospitals don't want to give up their equipment, so they might up the CORONA as this is getting funds

[cornishcarlos]

15 hours ago, chessman said:

I am not scared of the current numbers. I am scared of the graphs that show the increase in cases and deaths. You can't look at those and say 'nothing to see here, let's ignore it'.

 

You see an increase in cases and deaths, I just see an increase in testing !!

 

[stephenterry]

16 hours ago, Brunolem said:

From the official numbers, the odds are less than one in a million...

source please

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

Fitch is a huge financial services company that countries around the world use to judge risk with credit. Their job is to analyze the economy. They are predicting that worldwide GDP will fall by 1.9% in 2020. That will be bad BUT IT IS NOT THE ECONOMY STOPPING. I think their judgement carries a little bit more weight than your distinctions between economies and productive economies and your observations about how quiet Ubon is.

Fitch is one of the three rating agencies that was giving triple A grades like candies on all the securities that went crashing down in 2008.

 

If the world economy goes down only by 1.9% under lock down, why bother going back to work?

 

After all, it seems that all these industries (cars, planes...) and services (airlines, tourism, restauration...) only produce a very small amount of wealth.

 

Let's just keep selling each other pieces of paper, which is basically what the financial industry does, and it all will be fine.

 

The central banks can create money and loan it to the population...that will create more pieces of paper to keep the financial industry humming.

 

 

[Assurancetourix]

42 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

maybe you just ate some bad seafood? 

If you follow my posts carefully you would know that I never eat Thai seafood