Thailand announces another fall in new COVID-19 cases

[Eibot]

2 hours ago, madmitch said:

Are other countries looking at Thailand's figures and wondering how the figures are so low?

 

If you think about it, Thailand should be an absolute hotbed for the dissemination of the virus:

 

Flights from Wuhan continuing until Wuhan itself closed its airport;

Flights from overseas, including China, still arriving until very recently;

A population that is generally loathe to observe rules and regulations;

Minimal social distancing;

People living several to a household, not to forget the corrugated iron villages occupied by migrant workers;

Public hospitals where you expect to come out with a disease, even if you enter in perfect health;

An early lack of decisiveness from the Government and totally confusing messages from  the health ministry (and a useless health minister who has all but disappeared from sight);

Completely different provincial approaches whereby some still have shopping malls open and others are in full lockdown.

 

I could probably go on.

 

So why is this virus just not infecting many people here? Heat and humidity? Face masks? Natural immunity? Lack of testing and analysis of tests?

 

Other southeast Asian countries are also not suffering like in Europe and America.

 

It just seems odd.

 

 

It's not odd. All Corona viruses in the past preform worst in hot weather. We just weren't/aren't completely sure. However, it seems highly likely. This is an absolutely godsend. Could you imagine if the virus is a aggressive in countries like India..My god.

[tonray]

2 hours ago, chrisinth said:

If these numbers and the trend remains downward, are correct that is indeed great news. However, IMO, the greater threat will be as stated by the doctor above, will be when the travel restrictions are lifted.

 

Although probably months ahead, the transition between the self isolation/curfew/travel restricted situation that we are currently in and back to normal, needs to be done correctly. This will take a lot of time. 

The Tourist Authority is busy working on 'Full Moon Isolation Parties" .  Direct flights to isolated rock in the midst of the Andaman Sea...party hearty and direct flights back to home. In case of infection can nuke the island with Dettol and start fresh.

[rbkk]

21 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I'm starting to think we have Prayut's version of Chinese 50centers infiltrating this forum or maybe straight from the military IT boys. A lot of the Prayut fanboys seem to be new to TV.

Yes. I have my suspicions due to the dodgy grammar and use of capital letters in the wrong place....

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, jimmjam said:

I was watching channel 8 news today and they said that som tam helps fight the virus. No lie. 

That's because they put lot's of chillies in it and chillies are hot.Also the "old fish" sauce has a repulsive odour no self respecting sars virus would go near it.

[smedly]

10 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

This just underscores the point. No way Thais have been social distancing in any way, shape, or form. Thailand has been a sitting duck for catastrophic infection rates ever since it was the first country to report a case outside China (while Chinese tourists were still flocking in). Sure, the government statistics are a joke, but mass numbers of respiratory illness and death would be all over social media here in no time if they were happening. 

do a bit of research on "Viral Pneumonia" and you will see a massive spike in Thailand from January

 

keep the feet for dancing

[FarFlungFalang]

Just now, rbkk said:

Yes. I have my suspicions due to the dodgy grammar and use of capital letters in the wrong place....

mE toO!

[tropo]

If we were to use officially reported numbers to assess the extent of the pandemic, Russia should be in the mix. It has a population of 145 million and is one of the coldest countries in the world, yet only 130 deaths have been reported. They definitely don't have climate on their side. Countries like this pose a huge risk to the rest of the world if other countries try to go back to normal and open their borders. Moscow's temperatures are currently just above freezing, day and night. Other places such as Siberia still have -10C or lower.

 

 

 

What happened in 1918 with the Spanish flu concerns me. The first wave petered out before the US summer, and the 2nd wave, a much more deadly strain, started to spread in July 1918. It spared no country, but due to slow sea transport back those days, took much longer to gain foothold across the globe. It didn't spare Thailand.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by tropo

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

I have tried to make this point as well as pointing out that an extra 5k deaths/month in Thailand only represents a 10% increase in average monthly deaths...so, last three months could have seen an extra 15k deaths and if 25% die at home, then only a 7.5% increase in hospital business. That would not result in the "unavoidable" FB posts, full parking lots, and dead bodies popping out of all the ICUs. But, people on here don't find this type of discussion compelling. I think it's because the reality that it is blowing up here and we're not seeing it is too frightening for some to consider. 

 

I'm from the U.S. where 20k have died. I have yet to know someone who knows someone who has died of C-19. It's so sensationalized in the Western media, I think people simply can't wrap their heads around it not being treated the same way in the news here. 

The number of death is not really relevant I think. The reason that Covid-19 is dangerous, is because it overflows ICU and hospital. As long as that is not the case, and everybody can get the best care they could get, then there is no issue. 

 

I believe the deaths and cases are a lot higher, but also not problematic for the healthcare system. I also believe the cases in Europe and the US are a lot higher. They don't count (apart from France & Belgium) the people that die at home in their count. 

 

If people are being refused treatment because non is available, then heads will start turning. However, it seems that because of the linear spread in warmer climates, this won't be the case. The real deaths in Thailand could well be around 5k at this very moment. However, as long as it doesn't pressure the system, there is no added value to communicate this to the public. 

[Odysseus123]

30 minutes ago, tropo said:

Maybe you have some family members who share distant ancestry to the PM, because your blind and constant apologies are pathetic. You have your head buried deeper in sand than anyone else on this forum.

 

I'm sure plenty of people want to leave. Could you please explain how people can leave right now?

Yes..but you must admit that the "fanboys"-plenty in evidence just now-do add a bit of fun to the proceedings.

 

"they sail thru the ether with the greatest of ease

they're the daring young men on the computer keys.."

[Aspaltso]

It's great news that the numbers are going down, however if there's a second wave of this(and if previous pandemics are an indicator there will be) then all of the social distancing and shutdown of activities hasn't created any "Herd Immunity", and the same measures will have to be taken again(probably in a few months during the rainy season when respiratory illnesses are much worse.) The only way to avoid another onslaught of the virus is to shut down the country to foreign travel for good, and that would hurt the economy, and so I don't think the government wants to do that. Anyways, I don't really see any good solutions. Ultimately there will be more people getting this virus in the LOS.

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said:

 

Nobody hear is claiming that Covid-19 doesn't spread in warm weather. Obviously.

 

The point is it spreads SLOWER. As with all Corona viruses. 

[Why Me]

Looking ahead if the down trend continues over the Songkran period then the next steps beginning right after:

1. Lift the night curfew.

2. Let shops and restaurants get back to normal.

3. Open the floodgates to Chinese tourists climbing the wall back home which will rev the tourism-based economy at rocket speed.

 

Ok, ok, we can talk about 3 in a bit. Just get 1 and 2 done.

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, Buffy Frobisher said:

Without naming them because I rely on them for treatment of a chronic health issue, one of Bangkok's biggest private hospitals has a negative-pressure wing full of Covid-19 patients, and the ICU full to the brim too. And they're apparently just overflow from the big government hospitals where it is even worse. Even my specialist said he was worried about my safety there because "Bangkok's full of it and you're safer not coming out". I tend not to believe the official numbers at all, and I dread to think how dire it is upcountry where people will be dying at home withot ever going near a regional hospital.

Who told you this?

[chrisinth]

6 minutes ago, tonray said:

The Tourist Authority is busy working on 'Full Moon Isolation Parties" .  Direct flights to isolated rock in the midst of the Andaman Sea...party hearty and direct flights back to home. In case of infection can nuke the island with Dettol and start fresh.

Be careful what you talk about in jest. When TAT is being brought into the pandemic equation, anything is possible to boost numbers to make them look good.

 

An extremely dangerous part of the Thai government, as has been seen earlier in this drama by extending the allowance of tourism in a know threat environment; no doubt in my mind that they had a huge say in this decision.

[Canuck1966]

Meanwhile in BKK

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, steven100 said:

A very sensible and appreciative post. Not the usual moaners ....  thanks.

I was going to ask if you had any siblings here?Or is he just a sole brother?Do you guys get fifty cents for each post or is that per day?It must be per post to pay for the  puss drinking.Notice the Kiwi eccent there?

Edited April 12, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

They like highlighting falang cases but the proportion is very low

Unknown must be the countries they can pinpoint on a map. 

[smedly]

4 minutes ago, Eibot said:

The number of death is not really relevant I think. The reason that Covid-19 is dangerous, is because it overflows ICU and hospital. As long as that is not the case, and everybody can get the best care they could get, then there is no issue. 

when someone reaches ICU ventilator stage their chance of survival is next to zero - one doctor in the UK basically said they were just going through the motions with these people trying to make their imminent death as comfortable as possible - with no effective treatment as yet they can only watch and wait

[Eibot]

23 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I find I like the theory that it's more to do with humidity and being in an enclosed space with others as in colder climates people live in heated homes which tend to have much lower humidity causing the moisture droplets around the virus to evaporate leaving the virus lighter and able to float longer and making people in the enclosed areas much more vulnerable to infection.Beware the cure.Don't stay home!

 

 

Undoubtedly. Italian and Spanish people are known to be outside their homes most of the times. Even in the colder periods. However, it could ofcourse be a factor.

[garygooner]

Lift the curfew soon, yes. Open shops and restaurants soon, yes, but keep social distancing, fever checks, hand sanitizers etc

Open borders, just a moment! 

[offset]

5 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:

Meanwhile in BKK

On Songkran normally empty

[Eibot]

18 minutes ago, tropo said:

If we were to use officially reported numbers to assess the extent of the pandemic, Russia should be in the mix. It has a population of 145 million and is one of the coldest countries in the world, yet only 130 deaths have been reported. They definitely don't have climate on their side. Countries like this pose a huge risk to the rest of the world if other countries try to go back to normal and open their borders. Moscow's temperatures are currently just above freezing, day and night. Other places such as Siberia still have -10C or lower.

 

 

 

What happened in 1918 with the Spanish flu concerns me. The first wave petered out before the US summer, and the 2nd wave, a much more deadly strain, started to spread in July 1918. It spared no country, but due to slow sea transport back those days, took much longer to gain foothold across the globe. It didn't spare Thailand.

 

 

They actually do. The prime temperature it between 5 degrees and 15. Anything below or above slows the virus down. Some research has shown at least. This has not been peer reviewed so shouldn't be taken as fact. However, the northern countries in the world do support this (Canada, Alaska, Russie etc)

[Lodestone]

9 minutes ago, Eibot said:

The real deaths in Thailand could well be around 5k at this very moment. However, as long as it doesn't pressure the system, there is no added value to communicate this to the public. 

 

CoViD-19 deaths are a major worldwide news story, and just as much so in Thailand with wide discussion on social media. And yet you posit a death toll more than 100 times higher than reported, and say it is being kept quiet through some total 100% airtight conspiracy. Do you have any evidence such as credible news reports and videos of hospitals such as the ones from say Italy and the U.S. reflecting your vastly greater numbers? Any reports of much greater need for ventilators or other hospital equipment?

[Eibot]

10 minutes ago, smedly said:

when someone reaches ICU ventilator stage their chance of survival is next to zero - one doctor in the UK basically said they were just going through the motions with these people trying to make their imminent death as comfortable as possible - with no effective treatment as yet they can only watch and wait

What utter nonsense. It that was true, what would be the point of ventilators in the first place? 

[Why Me]

1 minute ago, Eibot said:

They actually do. The prime temperature it between 5 degrees and 15. Anything below or above slows the virus down. Some research has shown at least. This has not been peer reviewed so shouldn't be taken as fact. However, the northern countries in the world do support this (Canada, Alaska, Russie etc)

Yep, the Goldilocks temperature theory does comport with the global C-19 distribution. And it's going to get hotter here over the next few weeks before the rains come. So fingers crossed.

[JCP108]

25 minutes ago, smedly said:

do a bit of research on "Viral Pneumonia" and you will see a massive spike in Thailand from January

 

keep the feet for dancing

Links?

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, Eibot said:

What utter nonsense. It that was true, what would be the point of ventilators in the first place? 

To prolong life. Humans are afraid to die. 

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

The whole world should learn from this

 

Don't test then you won't have to report confirmed cases, just basically hide them - well done Thailand 

 

While Thailand lags behind the whole world in confirmed cases they also lag behind massively on actual testing - and no, a temperature check is not a test

Has testing been proven to bring the fatality rate down then?

[Mung]

2 hours ago, steven100 said:

Yes, Khun Prayut acted quickly to minimize the spread of the virus and the numbers are starting to prove that theory. 

 

I hope this is sarcasm. If your memory isn't faulty, you will know that they only stopped Chinese inbound fights around 8 weeks after the first infection in Thailand. Schools and other areas of society didn't close until very late as well, Thailand has gotten extremely lucky due to their climate

[tonray]

29 minutes ago, rbkk said:

Yes. I have my suspicions due to the dodgy grammar and use of capital letters in the wrong place....

That could just be that they're American Trump supporters.