Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[metisdead]

Posts containing unattributed content that was copy and pasted from some site has been removed. Please include a valid link to the source of information when posting.

 

Some troll posts were removed.

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Testing does stop the disease spreading. Person tests positive is quarantined can no longer spread the virus.

 

Wrong, the testing did not stop the spread, that would be down to the quarantine.

 

[Traubert]

11 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

This is tortuous logic. Without mass testing it is not possible to say what the rate of infection in the general population may be. The government statement effectively says that limited testing (2,915 tests) in one location, Phuket, has indicated that the rate of infection is low, therefore mass screening is not warranted. But there is no information on when the tests were conducted, or who was tested, which is highly relevant.

 

For sake of argument, what if these tests were conducted as follows on random asymptomatic individuals in local communities:

 

1. Hospital A conducts 300 tests for 0 positives over a 3-week period in February.

 

2. Hospital B conducted 100 tests for 5 positives over a 1-week period in March.

 

On its own like this, it's incredibly hard - not to mention unwise - to jump to conclusions about what the data says. It could show that there are very few cases in the general population. Or it could show that, as would be expected with passage of time, there is more spread within the community. Or it could be that Hospital B found a small cluster in say one household, rather than 5 individuals all living in different places in the local area, which would have different implications for community transmission.

 

Point being, without widespread mass testing, it's impossible to determine how much spread there has been in the general population.

 

 

 

 

Plaintive. It's not happening and neither should it.

 

What works for one country doesn't work for another. That lesson comes out here daily.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Traubert

[Incobart]

17 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Testing does stop the disease spreading. Person tests positive is quarantined can no longer spread the virus.

 

compare to correct figures from correct countries there are now around 11 mil people infected with C-virus in Thailand. How you gonne lock then in quarantine ?

[Aland]

Amazing insight on these forums. Can ANYBODY tell me where they are stashing the bodies?

[RedPill]

6 minutes ago, Aland said:

Amazing insight on these forums. Can ANYBODY tell me where they are stashing the bodies?

Ok, fair enough. 

 

But if you have paid close attention to the 'world news', you saw big white containers in NY to 'stash' them, military convoys in Italy transporting dead people ... or Ecuador, ppl driving around with dead bodies on their cars like a ski box ... and trying to dump them somewhere.

 

It's a prevention measure. 

 

I'm more happy to read your comment as of today, there are no stacks of dead bodies ... that's great news.

 

It could have gone the other way. But better not in Thailand, with it's limited health care system etc. 

 

So be happy it didn't got that far, instead of being too critical about prevention measures.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by RedPill

[dinsdale]

Just now, Incobart said:

compare to correct figures from correct countries there are now around 11 mil people infected with C-virus in Thailand. How you gonne lock then in quarantine ?

1,359,982

Currently Infected Patients

1,308,218 (96%)

in Mild Condition

51,764 (4%)

Serious or Critical

 

Serious critical obviouly in hospital the other 96% are quarantined. 

11 mil infected in Thailand?

[Griffo63]

I'm no expert but I don't see any evidence of ambulances queuing at hospitals with urgent admissions, patients lying on gurneys waiting to die, or on ventilators in packed out hospital wards, exhausted nurses and doctors pleading for more PPE, mass cremations or makeshift graves. I don't even see pictures of ordinary folk applauding on Thursday evenings in support of key workers. So show me the evidence you naysayers  

[brucegoniners]

Thailand has lots of money, it's just in the wrong hands.

 

Of course it wasn't budgeted for. That's a big duh. But other countries are printing money to pay for this stuff, some better than others.

 

It would be nice if the private sector and other wealthy parties would contribute to this cause so everyone in Thailand can have both tests for the virus and antibody tests.

[erinsf]

This is not true.  There are numerous persons who are carriers, who are sick or, who have been exposed who, are not being counted.  Already, there are 660K persons under virus watch in Thailand.  Every expert in the world says, testing is an imperative.  It is most important because, you cannot simply 'open up,' the country when you do not know who is a carrier and who is asymptomatic.  We need to know these things or, the virus will rear its head again and sicken many more persons.  We are doing a good job right now.  But, this does not mean we should A. rush into 'normalcy' or, B. stop testing people.  Please Please Please we need to be consistent about this.  South Korea has been effective because, of their massive testing.  China stopped testing everyone, started re-opening and theirs numbers are going up, in Singapore the numbers are going up after, they started to open up too soon.  PLEASE DO NOT open up or, stop testing:(  

[RedPill]

1 minute ago, Griffo63 said:

I'm no expert but I don't see any evidence of ambulances queuing at hospitals with urgent admissions, patients lying on gurneys waiting to die, or on ventilators in packed out hospital wards, exhausted nurses and doctors pleading for more PPE, mass cremations or makeshift graves. I don't even see pictures of ordinary folk applauding on Thursday evenings in support of key workers. So show me the evidence you naysayers  

And that's really great news. I wouldn't want to see it any other way. 

 

If my house hasn't burned down, or your car hasn't crashed ... that's not an excuse to not buy new insurance next year.

 

Prevention measures ... that's how I see it. 

 

Also people hopefully create good protection habits on how to deal and live with this

... since it will not go away for a while and already countries are starting to losing lockdown restrictions 

 

 

[Accidental Tourist]

Summary: No MONEY - no HONEY... Say the truth and don't bring up lame excuses.

[dinsdale]

36 minutes ago, Dmaxdan said:

To all the naysayers who constantly claim that the official infection figures are only low because not enough testing is being carried out. How would you feel if the authorities started dragging random people off the street or out of their homes and forcing them to pay 5000 baht plus to be tested? Even if they feel perfectly, have been staying at home and self isolating and have had no contact with any known infected people?  Is that what you want??? 

Should be free. I'd be happy to be tested. Maybe not from the Chinese test kits though.

[madmitch]

That January 26th date is interesting. Last week someone told me of a foreigner, and he told me the name of the person, who was hospitalised in Phuket on that exact date with coronavirus and that it had been kept out of the press. The man in question was allegedly very sick but has now made a full recovery.

 

I took it with a pinch of salt at the time but maybe this article has corroborated this.

[korse]

3 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

That is one way to keep the number of cases to a minimum.

Only pessimistic would take that stand...Guess that for you the glass will always be half empty, and never half full ????

 

I appreciate every step being taken to battle the virus.

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, Aland said:

Amazing insight on these forums. Can ANYBODY tell me where they are stashing the bodies?

Exactly, the Chinese are still queuelng at the crematoriums to collect the ashes.

 

The only figure that actually means anything is deaths as a proportion of population. The 3 main players in this crisis, Spain,Italy and France are currently 380, 338 and 229 deaths/million.

Although the US is leading the field in numbers, the death rate is much lower at 71.

A few days back the UK figure was 118 and is now 167, in the same time frame the US rose from 50 to 71, so the death rate in the UK has risen twice as fast that in the US.

The real concern is that other countries rise to similar figures as that seen by the main 3 players.

 

By comparison Thailand stands at 0.6 deaths/million, even compared to the World figure of 15.4, that, as you say. it is a discrepancy that would be very hard to hide.

[JackGats]

49 minutes ago, Dmaxdan said:

To all the naysayers who constantly claim that the official infection figures are only low because not enough testing is being carried out. How would you feel if the authorities started dragging random people off the street or out of their homes and forcing them to pay 5000 baht plus to be tested? Even if they feel perfectly, have been staying at home and self isolating and have had no contact with any known infected people?  Is that what you want??? 

Well said. Plus, if you are found to be an asymptomatic carrier, being forced into a quarantine camp where you will really fall ill and get re-infected with other patient's bugs. No thanks.

[smedly]

so lets decrypt this load of hogwash

 

First of all, Mass testing is critical in identifying those infected and also those that have died of the CV-19, you cannot perform contact tracing without testing.

 

Second - as I have been saying all along, Thailand does not want to spend the money on testing because it would cost too much !!!! - well that is all about priorities and what the government regards as important - seems the health of the population is well down the list.

 

If you take the the numbers from the article of tests done and infections found (although not enough testing was done to produce reliable results) - if we were to assume the infection rate was an average of those figures then we are looking at maybe 1%+ of the population is likely infected out of 70 million people

 

That is what I take from the article

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, pacovl46 said:

Well, you certainly argue like a troll. Whatever anyone else says your go-to response is belittling them and making fun of what they post.

 

In regards to the article, the way South Korea got on top of it was by testing essentially everyone! They had checkpoints everywhere! 
 

That’s a fact. 

Somebody just have to make fun of all the lack of foundation and lack of facts to support their comments. I am using the support of the country´s different agencies, administration, hospitals as well as highly educated persons in high posts in society. Exactly like they would do if they were in their home country. Why can not give the same courtesy to Thailand. The land many of them chose to stay, live or work in?

 

Regarding the mass testing done in South Korea, of course that worked. They did that because of the massive amount of infected people that invaded their hospitals. That worked for them. Thailand do not have that invasion, and have chosen another approach that evidently works for them. So, why complain when the situation is better her than in most of the complainers home countries?

Edited April 14, 2020 by Matzzon

[smedly]

and just to add

 

every country in the world and every heath expert in the world believes that mass testing is critical - but not Thailand because it costs too much

 

so there you have it - they are not willing to spend the money sacrificing the health of Thai citizens and of course hiding the real data

 

No test no report

[Incobart]

34 minutes ago, Aland said:

Amazing insight on these forums. Can ANYBODY tell me where they are stashing the bodies?

Bangkok = 12 % of total population

Phuket = 0.75 % of total popilation

Chang Mai = 0.002 % of total population

average before 1535 deaths/day in Thailand, thats 

184/day for bkk

11/day for Phuket

0.03/day chang mai

 

if now is 80 % more you think it is amazing ? before 184 bodies per day in bkk did you saw them ? where they go ?

[Incobart]

33 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

1,359,982

Currently Infected Patients

1,308,218 (96%)

in Mild Condition

51,764 (4%)

Serious or Critical

 

Serious critical obviouly in hospital the other 96% are quarantined. 

11 mil infected in Thailand?

These are registered figures, meaning people that have been tested, people that get sick enough to go hospital, 98 % that is infected don't know, from the 2 % left  80 % not go hosipital cuase no severe symptoms.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

The Op, that you seem to think no-one has a right to question, stated that the 1st case in Phuket was 26 January.

I remembered and dug up the news article that opposes that claim. The news article might not be fact but they are no articles reporting any cases in Phuket before 20th March...

Since this thread opened, you have not done anything apart from try to bigman yourself and put others down. Or maybe you have made a useful contribution and I missed it ? Feel free to point out your contribution that I missed 

Take a look at post #8 for example. That is not putting others own, it´s just a predicted fact that it´s going to be a lot of negativity without any foundation in the thread. If you care to read he posts, it looks like I was right. Apart from that I also point out that there are information coming from people involved. How many posting here actually have a better knowledge or experience than them?

I have mostly replied to you in this thread, and have not accused you of anything that can put you down. Feel free to point out. You are the one coming with the accusations and unsupported informations pointed towards Thailand and the persons involved in saving the country from the virus. It´s just for you to understand that they do a great job. Nothing that you post can change that fact.

[Incobart]

32 minutes ago, erinsf said:

 China stopped testing everyone, started re-opening and theirs numbers are going up, in Singapore the numbers are going up after, they started to open up too soon.  PLEASE DO NOT open up or, stop testing:(  

The only meaning of a lockdown is SLOWING DOWN the infections 80 % of all people will get infected. just try winning time. getting more immune people, find a vaccine, you will not get rid of it. And hard to say now but older /sick /weak people that are unlucky are cleaned out by nature now.  We can not avoid that until there is a vaccine

[Skallywag]

Opinion: Before reopening businesses, we need an inexpensive rapid test for Covid-19, available to everyone. Those who are virus free can open their business and customers who test virus free can visit and frequent those businesses again. Those that test positive must continue to self-isolate whether asymptomatic or not. Rapid test are already available for many infectious diseases such as ebola, zika, malaria, dengue, and hepatitis. BioMedomics and a few other companies have them for Covid-19 already.  Once these tests are available everywhere for $1 or 30 baht the people can feel safe to go out and get back to work and play...  Shouldn't be so difficult, every 7-11 has cigarettes, beer, and condoms available.  Why not have an infectious disease test available also?  Of course the numerous "clinics" here in Pattaya would carry the tests also, if you want a certified reading of your results from a person who owns a lab coat and a certificate on the wall - LOL

Edited April 14, 2020 by Skallywag

[smedly]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

Where did I post it´s wrong to ask questions? There are others that goes too far everytime and always tries to undermine the news and information without any foundation.

in 15 years of membership on TVF I have put 2x people on ignore mostly because they offer absolutely nothing of value to any discussion - you are about to become No3

[Matzzon]

1 minute ago, smedly said:

in 15 years of membership on TVF I have put 2x people on ignore mostly because they offer absolutely nothing of value to any discussion - you are about to become No3

Thank you!

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, Incobart said:

These are registered figures, meaning people that have been tested, people that get sick enough to go hospital, 98 % that is infected don't know, from the 2 % left  80 % not go hosipital cuase no severe symptoms.

Of course. It's the pre-sympomatic and asymptomatic that's the problem. Only way to get these is through testing. Test, test, test, identify, isolate and trace + NPI's. This is how it's done.

[Griffo63]

42 minutes ago, erinsf said:

This is not true.  There are numerous persons who are carriers, who are sick or, who have been exposed who, are not being counted.  Already, there are 660K persons under virus watch in Thailand.  Every expert in the world says, testing is an imperative.  It is most important because, you cannot simply 'open up,' the country when you do not know who is a carrier and who is asymptomatic.  We need to know these things or, the virus will rear its head again and sicken many more persons.  We are doing a good job right now.  But, this does not mean we should A. rush into 'normalcy' or, B. stop testing people.  Please Please Please we need to be consistent about this.  South Korea has been effective because, of their massive testing.  China stopped testing everyone, started re-opening and theirs numbers are going up, in Singapore the numbers are going up after, they started to open up too soon.  PLEASE DO NOT open up or, stop testing:(  

Interesting number 660k   - 10% wish of the population.  Can you advise the source please. 

[Incobart]

4 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Opinion: Before reopening businesses, we need an inexpensive rapid test for Covid-19, available to everyone. Those who are virus free can open their business and customers who test virus free can visit and frequent those businesses again. Those that test positive must continue to self-isolate whether asymptomatic or not. Rapid test are already available for many infectious diseases such as ebola, zika, malaria, dengue, and hepatitis. BioMedomics and a few other companies have them for Covid-19 already.  Once these tests are available everywhere for $1 or 30 baht the people can feel safe to go out and get back to work and play...  Shouldn't be so difficult, every 7-11 has cigarettes, beer, and condoms available.  Why not have an infectious disease test available also?  Of course the numerous "clinics" here in Pattaya would carry the tests also, if you want a certified reading of your results from a person who owns a lab coat and a certificate on the wall - LOL

correct, good Idea, but the test should show your immunity. and let's all hope immunity stay long time. But when at high tempo older/sick weak have died, it will slow down, + vaccines.. then covid will only kill a few people per year just same like normal flew.