How coronavirus hitched a ride through China

[ChouDoufu]

15 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Apparently not - and certainly not in "mid December." According to the Taiwanese Health Minister they sent an email to the WHO on December 31. However the wording of the email certainly doesn't sound like a warning to me.

 

So the email (based on what the Health Minister read out) appears to be asking for information, not giving it. Now, the minister did later claim that the reference to cases being isolated constitutes a warning but the WHO contests that - and I have to say I don't see it either.

google knows all.  atypical is more worrying.  both forms are contagious, but atypical has milder symptoms, usually not requiring hospitalization.  more dangerous as you can have it and not know it yet still spread the disease, possibly for a longer period.

 

atypical is not a rare occurrence, and makes sense to be isolated until known what it actually is.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/atypical/index.html

 

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/15744-pneumonia-atypical-walking-pneumonia

 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/317957

[rabas]

7 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

google knows all.  atypical is more worrying.  both forms are contagious, but atypical has milder symptoms, usually not requiring hospitalization.  more dangerous as you can have it and not know it yet still spread the disease, possibly for a longer period.

 

atypical is not a rare occurrence, and makes sense to be isolated until known what it actually is.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/atypical/index.html

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/15744-pneumonia-atypical-walking-pneumonia

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/317957

Correct, unusual including able to walk around. SARS was an atypical pneumonia.

 

WHO issues a global alert about cases of atypical pneumonia (12 Mach 2003)

 

[ChouDoufu]

53 minutes ago, rabas said:

Correct, unusual including able to walk around. SARS was an atypical pneumonia.

 

WHO issues a global alert about cases of atypical pneumonia (12 Mach 2003)

 

depends on what you mean by "unusual."

 

from my non-expert reading of medical sites, it appears atypical pneumonia accounts for between 30-40% of pnuemonia cases.  obviously not the majority of cases, but certainly not an insignificant number.

 

we also have to take care taking words out of context looking for the latest gotcha.  does "atypical" mean what we as ordinary mortals think it does?

 

Atypical is a medical word for “abnormal.” Doctors may use this word to describe cells or body tissues that look unusual under a microscope. They might also say your case is atypical if you don't have the usual symptoms of your type of cancer. ... National Cancer Institute: “NCI Dictionary of Cancer Terms.”

 

seems so, but still need to be aware the common usage of terms is not necessarily what the scientist means.

 

for example........would you jump off your balcony because gravity is "only a theory?"  or in health matters, the "germ theory of disease" is just a theory?

 

so taiwan authorities heard about seven cases in china, and were concerned they may be related to sars, another version of atypical pneumonia.  it apparently takes some time to confirm. the who notice in 2003 was published a month after china reported 305 cases.

[candide]

10 hours ago, rabas said:

"Atypical pneumonia, possibly SARS like, patients in isolation to prevent contagion", Taiwan told WHO.

 

Taipeitimes :  "The WHO on Friday said it received an e-mail from the Ministry of Health and Welfare on Dec. 31 last year, but added that “there was no mention in the message of human-to-human transmission.” "

 

'No Human to Human transmission', lied the WHO about SARS like atypical pneumonia now placed in isolation wards. ISOLATION WARDS.

 

For them to say no sign of H2H when told about atypical pneumonia in isolation wards means only one thing, China had already been talking to WHO bending their ear to tell the world it was all OK no H2H.

 

WHO lied, people died, CCP smiled. 

They did not lie. There was no mention of human to human transmission and the email was not a warning but a request for additional information. So it rather looks like the initial statements from Taiwan were not accurate.

As for the "isolation ward" argument, there were two alternative explanations: (1) the Chinese may well have hidden the information or (2) as makes sense when one knows little about transmission modes of a new disease, patients have been preventively isolated.

How could the WHO know about it?

Edited April 19, 2020 by candide

[rabas]

1 hour ago, candide said:

They did not lie. There was no mention of human to human transmission and the email was not a warning but a request for additional information. So it rather looks like the initial statements from Taiwan were not accurate.

As for the "isolation ward" argument, there were two alternative explanations: (1) the Chinese may well have hidden the information or (2) as makes sense when one knows little about transmission modes of a new disease, patients have been preventively isolated.

How could the WHO know about it?

How? Ask!

 

It's their job to know, they are the responsible body. If not WHO then who?

They're paid billions and have countless top experts to understand these things.

 

The mention of a SARS like virus of unidentifiable origin in isolation wards in China would send chills down the spine of any medical official.  Obviously transmission would be a high concern, and WHO didn't even think to ask, not even curious, no need to even look into it. 

[Crazy Alex]

11 hours ago, mikebike said:

Most countries are guilty of "preventing the free flow of facts, data and information".

 

Not sure what your point is.

Yes, because the flow of information in China is as free as normal countries.

[candide]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

How? Ask!

 

It's their job to know, they are the responsible body. If not WHO then who?

They're paid billions and have countless top experts to understand these things.

 

The mention of a SARS like virus of unidentifiable origin in isolation wards in China would send chills down the spine of any medical official.  Obviously transmission would be a high concern, and WHO didn't even think to ask, not even curious, no need to even look into it. 

Of course, it's obvious to ask. How do you know they did not ask? That's likely the way it happened:

WHO, Q: is the H2H transmission?

CHINA A: according to our preliminary investigations, there is no clear evidence of H2H transmission.

[thisisrascal]

China lied and almost 200,000 have now died. 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Of course, it's obvious to ask. How do you know they did not ask? That's likely the way it happened:

WHO, Q: is the H2H transmission?

CHINA A: according to our preliminary investigations, there is no clear evidence of H2H transmission.

Except that's not what the WHO's statement said.

 

Your view on this somehow reminds me of a long lost friend who often claimed she won $20 at the horse races. When ask how much she lost she would usually say "about $50".  I can't complain about her optimism but I never went to the races with her. 

 

[candide]

8 minutes ago, rabas said:

Except that's not what the WHO's statement said.

 

Your view on this somehow reminds me of a long lost friend who often claimed she won $20 at the horse races. When ask how much she lost she would usually say "about $50".  I can't complain about her optimism but I never went to the races with her. 

 

You are right, That's only what the Chinese were officially stating as forwarded in the famous tweet: "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."

 

Now have a look at WHO's own statements.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/who-does-not-rule-out-human-human-spread-new-coronavirus

 

[Crazy Alex]

2 hours ago, candide said:

Of course, it's obvious to ask. How do you know they did not ask? That's likely the way it happened:

WHO, Q: is the H2H transmission?

CHINA A: according to our preliminary investigations, there is no clear evidence of H2H transmission.

So you're cool with CHO WHO, simply passing on information unchecked. And we're paying $58 million per year for that? No thanks.

[candide]

14 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

So you're cool with CHO WHO, simply passing on information unchecked. And we're paying $58 million per year for that? No thanks.

So in your naive representation, the WHO only communicates by tweets? Lol.

[Crazy Alex]

32 minutes ago, candide said:

So in your naive representation, the WHO only communicates by tweets? Lol.

No. What makes you think that?

[candide]

15 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

No. What makes you think that?

You only refer to this single tweet.

[WalkingOrders]

Fyi Atlantic article on WHO CCP and early spread

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/world-health-organization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus/609820/

[rabas]

6 hours ago, candide said:

You are right, That's only what the Chinese were officially stating as forwarded in the famous tweet: "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."

 

Now have a look at WHO's own statements.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/who-does-not-rule-out-human-human-spread-new-coronavirus

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/anthony-fauci-china-misled-world-coronavirus-erupt/

 

Let's listen to someone more reliable than the Guardian.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci says that human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 diseases erupted in China in mid-December, yet the communist regime told the U.S. and the world that the virus was only transmitted animal-to-human.

 

Dr. Fauci, said as the disease spread to more people in mid-January in Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province, the Chinese government said that human contagion was minimal, a fact that shaped for weeks the outside world’s sense of the danger and the appropriate response.

 

Both assertions were “clearly not correct … that was misinformation right from the beginning,” he said.

 

Everyone knew. I knew. I bought the last N95 masks at Chaengwattana on Jan 16. They said they were nearly sold out.

 

WHO didn't know?

[gk10002000]

"Snakes on a Plane" but a lot smaller virions

[ChouDoufu]

back to parsing the words?  chinese authorities at first said "no clear evidence" of h-h transmission, which is not the same as saying "no evidence."  this may (or may not) have been true at the time.  they notified who at the end of december when wuhan had several hundred cases and seven deaths.

 

also must consider there are now at least three strains of the virus circulating.  how contagious is each strain, how is each strain affected by environmental factors, how does population genetics affect susceptibility to each strain?

 

is type B less prone to h-h transmission in asian populations, such that it took longer to confirm transmission?  it type A more virulent in western populations, and thus harder to contain and faster spreading?

 

type A originated in china, possibly in guangdong as early as september and was carried to wuhan (pending research by forster), and then to the west coast of the usa.   the mutated type B infected wuhan, and was carried to europe, and then to new york.  it then mutated to type C moving to singapore and australia.  different strains with different properties affecting different host populations.

 

 

to add a few anecdotes:

 

hainan province where i'm located had a total of 168 cases with 6 deaths.  there have been no new cases in well over a month.  we had a modified lockdown here, but nothing as strict as wuhan.  no restrictions on local people now, but travelers from the mainland still have mandatory 14-day quarantine.  that will probably remain for some time, and is preventing the universities in haikou and sanya from opening.

 

there were a few cases in my town, and one death.  did we have type B with minimal spreading?  why didn't we have tens of thousands infected along with thousands dead?

 

**we could assume lack of testing could lead to undiagnosed cases, but then those infected individuals, dead or asymptomatic, should be spreading it to all their friends and relatives.  this does not appear to have happened.

 

currently all local businesses here are open, except for the ones that (i assume) went bankrupt during the extended closure.  those closed shops that i've passed are all being renovated to reopen.  construction has restarted.  bike ride to the beach yesterday, 15 km of road resurfacing ongoing, as well as new convention center, hotels and apartment high-rises.  few workers wearing masks.

 

stopped by a restaurant last night to pick up BBQ to go, all the tables were full.  local tea shops are packed, customers going back to normal behavior.  sitting close together sharing cellphone videos, shoes off, feet on the chairs, chewing betelnut and spitting on the sidewalk. 

 

few people are wearing masks.  mainly security guards at supermarkets and malls and some housing area gate guards.  counted masks on around 1/4 of scooter drivers while waiting at a traffic signal.  temperature checks have mostly stopped.  no longer need to update cellphone QR-code.

 

at least here on the island, it feels like the contagion never happened.  it's something we see on the news, happening far away.  the situation may be different in the tourist areas.  i don't know which sites are open with mainlanders being quarantined, or how hotels and resorts are being affected.

Edited April 20, 2020 by ChouDoufu

[candide]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/anthony-fauci-china-misled-world-coronavirus-erupt/

 

Let's listen to someone more reliable than the Guardian.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci says that human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 diseases erupted in China in mid-December, yet the communist regime told the U.S. and the world that the virus was only transmitted animal-to-human.

 

Dr. Fauci, said as the disease spread to more people in mid-January in Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province, the Chinese government said that human contagion was minimal, a fact that shaped for weeks the outside world’s sense of the danger and the appropriate response.

 

Both assertions were “clearly not correct … that was misinformation right from the beginning,” he said.

 

Everyone knew. I knew. I bought the last N95 masks at Chaengwattana on Jan 16. They said they were nearly sold out.

 

WHO didn't know?

Your quote is from April 12......not difficult to know it in April. Additionally, you did not take into account that, when WHO members were communication on behalf of WHO (not in the tweet informing about a Chinese statement), they were declaring at around the same time that H2H was not excluded.

 

The WHO did not communicate with a single news tweet.

Edited April 20, 2020 by candide

[Crazy Alex]

How coronavirus hitched a ride through China

 

Simple- on the public mass transportation leftists want everyone to rely on.

[Crazy Alex]

8 hours ago, WalkingOrders said:

Fyi Atlantic article on WHO CCP and early spread

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/world-health-organization-blame-pandemic-coronavirus/609820/

Wow, even the very left-leaning The Atlantic saw through this charade. I continue to be amazed at just how much leftists are defending CCP propaganganda.

[candide]

10 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Wow, even the very left-leaning The Atlantic saw through this charade. I continue to be amazed at just how much leftists are defending CCP propaganganda.

Which 'leftists' are defending CCP's propaganda? 

[mikebike]

20 hours ago, Crazy Alex said:

Yes, because the flow of information in China is as free as normal countries.

What perchance is a "normal country"?

[mikebike]

8 hours ago, rabas said:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/anthony-fauci-china-misled-world-coronavirus-erupt/

 

Let's listen to someone more reliable than the Guardian.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci says that human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 diseases erupted in China in mid-December, yet the communist regime told the U.S. and the world that the virus was only transmitted animal-to-human.

 

Dr. Fauci, said as the disease spread to more people in mid-January in Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province, the Chinese government said that human contagion was minimal, a fact that shaped for weeks the outside world’s sense of the danger and the appropriate response.

 

Both assertions were “clearly not correct … that was misinformation right from the beginning,” he said.

 

Everyone knew. I knew. I bought the last N95 masks at Chaengwattana on Jan 16. They said they were nearly sold out.

 

WHO didn't know?

Weird I bought N95 masks in March and there were plenty on the shelves... In January I was buying them in 5 packs for a construction project.

[Crazy Alex]

9 minutes ago, mikebike said:

What perchance is a "normal country"?

One in which the people are not controlled by power hungry communists or other despots.