Thailand's Covid-19 mortality rate among lowest in the world

[DrTuner]

Something started bothering me about the interview with FCCT and Dr Plipat. It was his mentioning of only 1-2/1000 testing positive, which is why it wasn't cost effective.

 

But .. there's only under 1000 PUI daily added to the queue. That would only mean 1-2 confirmed per day. So, he must've had some other number in his head, and I'm thinking he must've thought of the general public. Out of 70M population that would mean about 70-140k cases that could test positive. Dr Boon was talking about 200k or so in Bangkok Post. 

 

In the light of recent antibody tests around the world revealing there are a lot of people who have antibodies, but were/are completely asymptomatic, it would imply that the vast majority of the cases in Thailand are asymptomatic.

 

This would also answer the question "how is it possible half of Wuhan came to Thailand yet nobody got infected". It'd be because they probably would. Not sure if the early strain from Wuhan, which Thailand was a recipient of ( https://nextstrain.org/ncov ), could somehow be milder and an early form of herd immunity has formed. 

 

Antibody tests are 400-600 baht a pop. It would be quite cost effective to check for this and if it is true, start issuing those immunity passes and easing the lockdowns. It's unknown how long, if any, immunity would last, but it could be tested with caution.

 

Yet there is a thread here that mass testing for antibodies if not effective. I heartily disagree. We must knwo the true situation of the spread in Thailand.

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Good find,and one would think Thailand would have a similar outcome with this outbreak but the figures we are getting don't come close and unless someone can find and post similar stats as you posted about the UK we will be left to guess and argue without the ability to support our arguments.If Thailand was advanced and progressive enough such statistics should not be hard to present even in english but with limited development we might have to wait for cheap widespread antibody tests to get a clearer picture of this outbreak of C19 in Thailand like the antibody tests in the link below:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

One thing is fairly certain, if the deaths in Thailand in the first week of April were up by 60% someone would have noticed the queues at the crematorium.

Hope the US didn't get their antibody test from same place as UK

 

“As simple as a pregnancy test,” gushed Boris Johnson, the prime minister. “It has the potential to be a total game changer.”

There was one problem, however. The tests did not work.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coronavirus-tests-symptoms-covid-19-testing-kit-a9470071.html

[superal]

There are some important stats that are staring us in the face and been mentioned previously in this topic  . 

 

The virus has been prevalent in countries with cooler climates that boost transmission rates . Thailand and its South East Asian neighbours have at the moment high temperatures up to and above 40c in the shade and nearing mid 40s out of the shade . Surfaces of many materials e.g. cars , house roofs , roads & pavements exposed to the direct sunlight could be used to fry an egg on and you could not hold your hand on them for long . The virus c19 cannot tolerate those temperatures .

     The majority of deaths caused by the virus are from the older generation and / or with underlying health problems .Their immune systems are low because of their health and also the lack of sun at this time of the year . It is the sun which gives us the ability to produce vitamin D which in turn is the main ingredient for our immune system . Vitamin D is also a big player in defending our respiratory organs from bacterial diseases. 

So in summary ,  Covid 19 does not like very hot climates as is Thailand and the strong sun is the trigger to our bodies to produce the vitamin D which is an important part of your immunity system .

[473geo]

1 hour ago, superal said:

There are some important stats that are staring us in the face and been mentioned previously in this topic  . 

 

The virus has been prevalent in countries with cooler climates that boost transmission rates . Thailand and its South East Asian neighbours have at the moment high temperatures up to and above 40c in the shade and nearing mid 40s out of the shade . Surfaces of many materials e.g. cars , house roofs , roads & pavements exposed to the direct sunlight could be used to fry an egg on and you could not hold your hand on them for long . The virus c19 cannot tolerate those temperatures .

     The majority of deaths caused by the virus are from the older generation and / or with underlying health problems .Their immune systems are low because of their health and also the lack of sun at this time of the year . It is the sun which gives us the ability to produce vitamin D which in turn is the main ingredient for our immune system . Vitamin D is also a big player in defending our respiratory organs from bacterial diseases. 

So in summary ,  Covid 19 does not like very hot climates as is Thailand and the strong sun is the trigger to our bodies to produce the vitamin D which is an important part of your immunity system .

Could also add to this that countries who have suffered most were coming out of their winter

[Parsve]

On 4/18/2020 at 5:33 AM, Antonymous said:

Sophon said the mortality statistics showed male patients have a four times higher risk of death from Covid-19 as 2.7 per cent of deceased patients are males while only 0.7 per cent are females.”

There is not any absolute answer on that question jet, but one reason may be that men have more so-called ace-2 receptors, which are the virus's path into the body. Also smokers get more ace-2 receptors than non-smokers.

[JackGats]

10 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Hrmmm.

 

I think I stopped taking existing drugs seriously when I saw it reported that said Donald Duck has a shareholding in the  French manufacturer Sanofi. Don't know whether or not it's true but I do know he hasn't mentioned it, or at least I haven't seen him do so, which he should have done if peddling it as a possible treatment.

 

Sanofi has no patent on chloroquine. Chloroquine has been in the public domain for decades. Other conglomerates like Bayer/Monsanto are also churning it out. What is more questionable are  brand new drugs like Gilhead's HIV being touted. Big money here pushing to have them accepted as treatment.

[CG1 Blue]

17 hours ago, rbkk said:

 

 

CGI Blue, Read post #175 again. My question is about the HOT and HUMID, when Timwin said the virus is very temperature sensitive. Why are the numbers so high when it is so hot and humid in Singapore? Shouldn't the heat and humidity cripple the virus?

Nobody is saying heat and humidity = no virus at all. What people have suggested is that heat and humidity might be a factor in reducing the spread. 

 

I simply explained that the main cause of the latest outbreak in Singapore is crowded dormitories for foreign workers. There can still be outbreaks even when there are favourable conditions in a country. 

[sucit]

22 hours ago, Kks88 said:

 

17,000 covid deaths in New York in the last 4/5 weeks.

 

NY cv deaths are going up 1000 a day currently

The total death rate has tripled for NY compared to the average from previous years

You should look up a chart on how many ventilators they predicted they would need a few weeks ago, then check how many they ended up needing. 

[sucit]

23 hours ago, Blumpie said:

It means that they actually did their job and it worked.  Rather than congratulating them, you believe this is some sort of conspiracy theory?  I think there are more appropriate websites for that.  I mean really look at Italy where they were just letting people go - lots of them - because they didn't listen.  

I was inferring the number of people in hospitals was not nearly as bad as was reported, especially from what they were predicting weeks ago.

 

It was stated NY needed 140,000 beds for example. In actuality, 18,000 was enough.

 

If I told you, "there is a wave of patients coming, and it is gonna be pretty darned bad", and what ended up happening was almost one tenth of those patients arrived, the "feeling" should be... "whew, we dodged a bullet"... right? But it isn't! It is still "this is the worst in history" hysterics.

 

There are NY hospitals at or near capacity. There are a some NY hospitals that are not impacted at all. Cuomo went from "you choose the 29,400 that die" to "we are ok" in just one or two days time! 

 

The message here is a few weeks ago we had people calling armageddon? Would you disagree? My opinion is that feeling is still in the air, even though armageddon never showed up. 

Edited April 19, 2020 by sucit

[rbkk]

38 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Nobody is saying heat and humidity = no virus at all. What people have suggested is that heat and humidity might be a factor in reducing the spread. 

 

I simply explained that the main cause of the latest outbreak in Singapore is crowded dormitories for foreign workers. There can still be outbreaks even when there are favourable conditions in a country. 

Thanks for the reply. (^ I think you mean UNfavourable conditions..) Timwin said the virus was VERY temperature sensitive. Here is a link I posted in my  Covid-19 thread a few days ago.   https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079831/coronavirus-can-survive-long-exposure-high-temperature-threat      Seems odd, don't you think, that Singapore, positioned 70 miles from the equator, today announced the highest number of cases in SEA?

Edited April 19, 2020 by rbkk

[havair]

8 minutes ago, rbkk said:

Thanks for the reply. (^ I think you mean UNfavourable conditions..) Timwin said the virus was VERY temperature sensitive. Seems odd, don't you think, that Singapore, positioned 70 miles from the equator, today announced the highest number of cases in SEA?

https://news.yahoo.com/singapore-migrant-coronavirus-cases-highlight-100301089.html

Article above stated that Singapores increase may be due to the virus infecting a disproportionate number of migrant workers getting sick .

Many sleep 10-12 in a room in cramped and unsanitary conditions .  These migrant workers also were not included in a plan to distribute masks through out the country .

[DrTuner]

Great, FCCT uploaded the interview into youtube, which should be ok to link to from TVF:

 

Here's the moment of 1 in 1000 tests resulting in positive:

 

That does not match with the daily PUI increase, which is under 1000. If there was no backlog, we'd get only 0-1 confirmed per day.

Edited April 19, 2020 by DrTuner

[rbkk]

4 minutes ago, havair said:

https://news.yahoo.com/singapore-migrant-coronavirus-cases-highlight-100301089.html

Article above stated that Singapores increase may be due to the virus infecting a disproportionate number of migrant workers getting sick .

Many sleep 10-12 in a room in cramped and unsanitary conditions .  These migrant workers also were not included in a plan to distribute masks through out the country .

I absolutely get that. What I am sceptical about is the effect of heat and humidity. I don't think the virus is that temperature sensitive. In my link above (#250) they had to almost boil it to kill it. It seems to be thriving in SG.

[CG1 Blue]

40 minutes ago, rbkk said:

I absolutely get that. What I am sceptical about is the effect of heat and humidity. I don't think the virus is that temperature sensitive. In my link above (#250) they had to almost boil it to kill it. It seems to be thriving in SG.

You may or may not be right about the temperature factor. But perhaps use a different country to make your point. The recent spike in SG has been specifically attributed to the migrant workers' cramped living conditions. Prior to that SG was being held up as an example of excellent control of the virus. 

[havair]

1 hour ago, rbkk said:

I absolutely get that. What I am sceptical about is the effect of heat and humidity. I don't think the virus is that temperature sensitive. In my link above (#250) they had to almost boil it to kill it. It seems to be thriving in SG.

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745

 

Most of the reports I read seem to think there is a correlation between higher heat and humidity and the transmission of the virus .  The higher the heat and humidity the harder it is for the virus to survive .... Perhaps 

its a weaker strain of the virus here ,  perhaps its the higher heat and humidity ,  could be many other factors as well .

 

 

[CharlieH]

Flame post and response to it removed.

[CGW]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

The recent spike in SG has been specifically attributed to the migrant workers' cramped living conditions. Prior to that SG was being held up as an example of excellent control of the virus. 

Worth bearing in mind that the workers in the camps are not in the greatest of health to begin with, they are not going to have great immune system's, they don't have a great diet - to be polite, neither are they well paid, poor quality of rest in dormitories not good either. (I have worked with them)

[pineapple01]

Unless the figures are based on Population how do you know a true number. The Falklands dont have any cases.

[rbkk]

2 hours ago, havair said:

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745

 

Most of the reports I read seem to think there is a correlation between higher heat and humidity and the transmission of the virus .  The higher the heat and humidity the harder it is for the virus to survive .... Perhaps 

its a weaker strain of the virus here ,  perhaps its the higher heat and humidity ,  could be many other factors as well .

 

 

I concur entirely about sunlight, because of the UV rays; they probably do kill the virus. The reports, linked previously, about the multiple transmissions in a humid bath house and stability of the virus (lab) well above 60C, leave me still sceptical at this point re: humidity and heat.                                                                                                                  I still haven't seen any scientific reports about potentialy another factor and that is  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemoglobin_E  In parts of Thailand there is up to 70% of the population with the blood disorder. There appears to be a relationship between Haemoglobin E Trait and Malarial resistance. Could Malaria and resistance too it be a factor? Genetics. https://academic.oup.com/emph/article/2019/1/232/5675503

Edited April 19, 2020 by rbkk
added link

[rbkk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usyQgPU-VrI  This appeared on Youtube an hour ago. A connection with Malaria? Man-made?    French Virologist, Who Discovered HIV, Says Coronavirus Originated In A Lab.  French virologist & Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier has claimed that Coronavirus originated in a lab. Montagnier's research was based on the fact that COVID-19's genome has elements of HIV & Malaria germ.

[lkv]

55 minutes ago, rbkk said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usyQgPU-VrI  This appeared on Youtube an hour ago. A connection with Malaria? Man-made?    French Virologist, Who Discovered HIV, Says Coronavirus Originated In A Lab.  French virologist & Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier has claimed that Coronavirus originated in a lab. Montagnier's research was based on the fact that COVID-19's genome has elements of HIV & Malaria germ.

It's a couple of days old this speculation and it's being debunked.

 

https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/big-data/no-sars-cov-2-does-not-contain-hiv-genetic-code/

[Tiger1980]

On 4/18/2020 at 6:23 AM, Sheryl said:

 

All 4 of these countries have in common:

 

Young population

Very few elderly in institutions like nursing homes

Little to no use of mass transit

Extreme heat and sunshine

 

and except for VN, low population density.

Also these countries do not have high levels of Obesity,unlike in the west

 

[Lingba]

well one thing I have learned from living in Thailand is the numbers and stats they present on anything is very open to debate

[Bkk Brian]

11 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Great, FCCT uploaded the interview into youtube, which should be ok to link to from TVF:

 

Here's the moment of 1 in 1000 tests resulting in positive:

 

That does not match with the daily PUI increase, which is under 1000. If there was no backlog, we'd get only 0-1 confirmed per day.

Yes some good info on that interview

 

So his reasoning is that catching 1 infected person from 1000 tests in Phuket with a cost of 2 million baht is not economical? Logic states this is nonsense when you take into account the RO from that one positive case if he was not found.  

 

He also states it costs around 1 million baht to treat a patient in hospital with COVID (I presume this would be a critical case). So I hope in his next interview he does not go on to say its not economical to treat critical patients!

 

 

 

[Darkside Gray]

This is a incorrect header, Vietnam have had Zero deaths so far!

[BobBKK]

This just shows how stupid most stats are. Thailand has very LOW testing so we don't know HOW many got it, self isolated, then recovered. What he means is of those tested (very low rate) mortality is 1.7% but in reality it is probably 0.01%. 

"lowest in the world"  LOL 

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, Parsve said:

There is not any absolute answer on that question jet, but one reason may be that men have more so-called ace-2 receptors, which are the virus's path into the body. Also smokers get more ace-2 receptors than non-smokers.

Certainly one aspect but a few more listed here.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240898-why-are-men-more-likely-to-get-worse-symptoms-and-die-from-covid-19/

[essox essox]

how do they KNOW 41 percent had diabetes....and which kind of diabetes....there are two kinds.....???

[Number 6]

Is anyone aware of random testing outside of hospitals?

 

What is the criteria post mortem that determines cause of death?

 

 

Did you hear? China reporting in single digits. zero deaths. Good news all-round in East Asia.

 

Doubleplus good Winston.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Number 6

[transam]

15 minutes ago, essox essox said:

how do they KNOW 41 percent had diabetes....and which kind of diabetes....there are two kinds.....???

Does it matter.....?

Would have thought medical records would show any ongoing medical problems.