Lowest number of Covid-19 cases in a month raises hopes of easing lockdown restrictions

[andyww]

If these figures are genuine, researchers in the West should be looking into the reason why they are so low, and learning.

 

Japan also has a very low death rate which largely seems to be ignored in the West. Are they also making up the figures? Rate per million in Japan is 2 vs 250 in the UK. Thailand 0.7.

 

I can think of a few reasons such as mask use, overall healthier population, but why are the huge differences not being investigated? Are the scientists all assuming they are made up?

 

[Thailand]

1 hour ago, Changoverandout said:

Figures need to be in single digits so a way to go yet before restrictions should be lifted.

Rubbish

[bkk6060]

14 minutes ago, berybert said:

I went out for a walk earlier today for about 2 hours. Never heard nor saw an ambulance. 

If these hospitals are full they must be full of the heathiest covid patients in the world

There were reports of some Bangkok hospitals being full.

But, it seemed they have put the Covid patients into just a few hospitals which I believe is a good management strategy. There are over 100 hospitals in the greater Bangkok area.

I am sure the majority of the hospitals in Bangkok and throughout the country have no patients.  Which, is great news.

[Stocky]

8 minutes ago, garygooner said:

According to some reports Bali is getting ready to welcome Chinese tourists in June, possibly even May. 

Given the ever rising case numbers in Indonesia it's unlikely China will want its citizens going there and bringing the virus back. Suspect Bali will have a long wait.

Thailand on the other hand............

[offset]

2 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

There were reports of some Bangkok hospitals being full.

But, it seemed they have put the Covid patients into just a few hospitals which I believe is a good management strategy. There are over 100 hospitals in the greater Bangkok area.

I am sure the majority of the hospitals in Bangkok and throughout the country have no patients.  Which, is great news.

You can move ventilators quite easy but ICU units are a lot more difficult so I think if there was a large number they would be spread around

[Bkk Brian]

25 minutes ago, offset said:

Germany are doing so well over 147000 cases and only 4862 deaths which is over 100 times more deaths than here 

Germany are doing well. I wonder how Thailand would cope if it had 147,000 cases?

[sandrew33]

Thailand has tested 2,000 per million. Singapore is at 16,000. Australia 17,000. Thailand is in a low end group of testing countries whose results are considered wildly unreliable as result of the low tests. 

 

Everyone agrees that lifting of restrictions requires a wide testing, tracing and quick acting isolation regime. Thailand has, on available evidence, none of those systems in place. 
 

The lifting of restrictions is just going to see a surge in new cases unless the testing regime is massively broadened and improved. 

[JimGant]

1 hour ago, schlog said:

Time to celebrate that low number. Uturn for alc ban need today!

They'll probably add the number of dead from the DTs to the corvid19 death total -- then claim that because the number is going up, we still need to shelter in place sober.

Is it a Mormon, or a Muslim, making this prohibition call? Any other countries doing same? I don't think so. Ludicrous.

[offset]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Germany are doing well. I wonder how Thailand would cope if it had 147,000 cases?

Think better that we did not have that many cases maybe somebody did the correct things or was Germany slow at the beginning and there is a report of another 1785 new cases today

[Aland]

1 minute ago, sandrew33 said:

Thailand has tested 2,000 per million. Singapore is at 16,000. Australia 17,000. Thailand is in a low end group of testing countries whose results are considered wildly unreliable as result of the low tests. 

 

Everyone agrees that lifting of restrictions requires a wide testing, tracing and quick acting isolation regime. Thailand has, on available evidence, none of those systems in place. 
 

The lifting of restrictions is just going to see a surge in new cases unless the testing regime is massively broadened and improved. 

Ah well, if everyone agrees

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Germany are doing well. I wonder how Thailand would cope if it had 147,000 cases?

Thailand probably does have 200k+ cases, as estimated by Dr.Boon, the same man that mentioned Chula, Siriraj and Bamras are full.

 

The strangest thing is, most seem to be asymptomatic or so mild they don't get admitted. Now there's a new study that found mutations in the strains with up to 270x virality in the strains from Italy and NYC.

 

Thailand needs random antibody tests to determine if they got the early Wuhan-light strain widely spread in the population. It could hint at immunity and possibly aid in vaccine development.

[sandrew33]

18 minutes ago, andyww said:

If these figures are genuine, researchers in the West should be looking into the reason why they are so low, and learning.

 

Japan also has a very low death rate which largely seems to be ignored in the West. Are they also making up the figures? Rate per million in Japan is 2 vs 250 in the UK. Thailand 0.7.

 

I can think of a few reasons such as mask use, overall healthier population, but why are the huge differences not being investigated? Are the scientists all assuming they are made up?

 

Anyone sensible would be wary of Thai figures. Anyone who has been upcountry and seen doctors refusing to test old people for Covid “because you positive H1N1” understands that lack of testing has lead to wildly incorrect reporting of both cases and deaths. 
 

The low number of tests, which are also skewed towards those who can afford them, as opposed to those who need them, also brings into question the numbers. 
 

Plus the governments burning need to reopen tourism as soon as possible and TAT numbers recently released indicating things back to normal by July confirm that desire. 
 

Chok dee Thailand but I reckon this has a way to go yet. 

[madmitch]

1 hour ago, KhunBENQ said:

Non food at our Tesco was open. Fine!

Need new sandals.

But they only had dwarf sizes

Wouldn't know about my nearest Tesco as I'm still locked into Karon/Kata. We have a Makro but Villa and Teso are out of bounds! I reallyhope they at least let us Phuketians into the adjoining districts after May 1st and hopefully let us on the beaches as well.

[Elreeco]

1 hour ago, KhunBENQ said:

Non food at our Tesco was open. Fine!

Need new sandals.

But they only had dwarf sizes

Beware of a dwarf that tells you your hair smells nice

[metisdead]

A post using a disallowed trolling reference to the PM and the replies have been removed. 

[offset]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Thailand probably does have 200k+ cases, as estimated by Dr.Boon, the same man that mentioned Chula, Siriraj and Bamras are full.

 

The strangest thing is, most seem to be asymptomatic or so mild they don't get admitted. Now there's a new study that found mutations in the strains with up to 270x virality in the strains from Italy and NYC.

 

Thailand needs random antibody tests to determine if they got the early Wuhan-light strain widely spread in the population. It could hint at immunity and possibly aid in vaccine development.

For 1 time we agree the test needs to be antibody test but are there enough test yet to carry out a big enough survey and are the ones available reliable 

[sandrew33]

8 minutes ago, Aland said:

Ah well, if everyone agrees

????

 

I understand it’s ok to be an ignorant smartarse on Thai visa but since Google seems beyond you here is an example of what “everyone” (read leaders of sensible developed countries) are saying. Australian PM in last couple of days: 

 

“In about a month from now there will be changes to the baseline restrictions that we put in place a few weeks ago,” Morrison said in a press conference, adding that three benchmarks would need to be met before that occurred. “When we have in place the broader testing regime surveillance, the automated contract regime in place, and we have scaled out our capacity to respond to outbreaks, that is what we are looking to do in the next four weeks.

 

Fauci has said similar in the US. 
 

But hey, great comeback by you ????????

[sapson]

1 hour ago, DavisH said:

You have evidence to the contrary? Please post it. Not just your opinion. And, no, the hospitals are not full. My wife works closely with one hospital (BIDI) in Nonthaburi treating covid patients. They are defnintiely not full. 

 

Face it, you are just another farang moaner who cannot maccept the Thailand is doing something right.  

I provided the information above to google the Bkk post article by the head of a hospital group nationwide. Not allowed to direct link etc.. 

Suggest you read it, but understand your wife may be better informed.

 

New Zealand population 5 million with 1,400 covid cases.

 

Thailand population 70 million with 2800 covid  cases.

 

Yet the highest numbers of Chinese visitors from Wuhan province welcomed for many months.

 

I guess you also believe TAT figures and the government statement following a tour of Pattaya that their was no evidence of prostitution to be seen.

Edited April 21, 2020 by sapson

[Aland]

3 minutes ago, sandrew33 said:

????

 

I understand it’s ok to be an ignorant smartarse on Thai visa but since Google seems beyond you here is an example of what “everyone” (read leaders of sensible developed countries) are saying. Australian PM in last couple of days: 

 

“In about a month from now there will be changes to the baseline restrictions that we put in place a few weeks ago,” Morrison said in a press conference, adding that three benchmarks would need to be met before that occurred. “When we have in place the broader testing regime surveillance, the automated contract regime in place, and we have scaled out our capacity to respond to outbreaks, that is what we are looking to do in the next four weeks.

 

Fauci has said similar in the US. 
 

But hey, great comeback by you ????????

It’s a virus, unless it’s totally eradicated then it’s going to resurface. Thanks for the complement on the comeback, I sometimes through them out when I see someone claiming “everyone agrees” when in fact there is very little agreement. Which test? How many? Test everyone every day? That’s about what you would have to do, along with complete isolation of positive cases, to achieve the dream of eradication but again, if everyone agrees then I guess the problem is solved.

[garygooner]

1 hour ago, Changoverandout said:

Figures need to be in single digits so a way to go yet before restrictions should be lifted.

Really? How many countries in Europe and the US will wait for single digits? 

[sapson]

The figures are as predictable as a pantomime!

 

A slow down trend and a miraculous return to near normality so the government generals dont have to dip deeply into their private trough to feed their own people or risk a being overthrown my ignoring their plight.

 

Never mind the true numbers tested figures etc .......or the statement from the head of a hospital group in Bangkok warning of the full hospitals with covid 19 specialist treatment facilities etc.......cant link it here but google, the coming storm by Boom Vanasin its a Bkk post article.

 

Take a bow Prayut! prepare for the accolades, Thailand the masters of virus management....... the less you test the less positives you have.... pure genius.

 

Post re submitted having been sugar coated as required.

[LeamchabangLarry]

18 minutes ago, sapson said:

I provided the information above to google the Bkk post article by the head of a hospital group nationwide. Not allowed to direct link etc.. 

Suggest you read it, but understand your wife may be better informed.

 

New Zealand population 5 million with 1,400 covid cases.

 

Thailand population 70 million with 2800 covid  cases.

 

Yet the highest numbers of Chinese visitors from Wuhan province welcomed for many months.

 

I guess you also believe TAT figures and the government statement following a tour of Pattaya that their was no evidence of prostitution to be seen.

You could have a pretty compelling argument and case if it were early March.

 

...It is now the end of April

Edited April 21, 2020 by LeamchabangLarry

[offset]

1 minute ago, sapson said:

The figures are as predictable as a pantomime!

 

A slow down trend and a miraculous return to near normality so the government generals dont have to dip deeply into their private trough to feed their own people or risk a being overthrown my ignoring their plight.

 

Never mind the true numbers tested figures etc .......or the statement from the head of a hospital group in Bangkok warning of the full hospitals with covid 19 specialist treatment facilities etc.......cant link it here but google, the coming storm by Boom Vanasin its a Bkk post article.

 

Take a bow Prayut! prepare for the accolades, Thailand the masters of virus management....... the less you test the less positives you have.... pure genius.

 

Post re submitted having been sugar coated as required.

if they are lying about the numbers of deaths and outstanding cases why did they not lie about how many test they are doing nobody would know if true

[mr3825]

2 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Having been fairly static for some days, seeing the number in the teens is very good news. Just hope it keeps the downward descent.

 

[mr3825]

Does anyone believe the numbers? Please refer to the tourist count. Pick a number and check with people who count and if you have their ear you will be right on 

[FarFlungFalang]

40 minutes ago, sandrew33 said:

Thailand has tested 2,000 per million. Singapore is at 16,000. Australia 17,000. Thailand is in a low end group of testing countries whose results are considered wildly unreliable as result of the low tests. 

 

Everyone agrees that lifting of restrictions requires a wide testing, tracing and quick acting isolation regime. Thailand has, on available evidence, none of those systems in place. 
 

The lifting of restrictions is just going to see a surge in new cases unless the testing regime is massively broadened and improved. 

Once the restrictions are lift so will the need for any testing at all thus insuring Thailand remains C19 free and the tourists will come to Thailand in droves.Some may get the flu whilst here then contract C19 on their way home on the airplane but it won't be Thailand's fault.

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, sapson said:

cant link it here but google, the coming storm by Boom Vanasin its a Bkk post article.

This one should be halal: https://thethaiger.com/news/national/thailand-news-today-friday-april-17

Quote

Healthcare leader predicts 200,000 people could be infected with Covid-19

Despite the relatively low number of new coronavirus cases in Thailand, hospitals are already reaching capacity in dealing with patients that need ICU treatment and ventilators… this from Boon Vanasin, chairman of Thonburi Healthcare Group.

He claims that the three main hospitals in Bangkok specialising in Covid-19 treatment are already full, even university hospitals in Bangkok are full.

He estimates the actual number of infections at as much as 40 times higher than reported, as 80% of people with the virus do not show symptoms. This means about 200,000 people could have the virus and not know it. 

 

[offset]

I was not sure I believed the figures given out at first, but now I am not so sure, there are 15 provinces that not had any new cases in the last 28 days 9 of them have not had 1 case, surely someone in one of these provinces would say if they were tested positive for the virus and not counted

[spermwhale]

2 hours ago, anchadian said:

I agree, what a total mess, but what do you expect from a 'Thai' newspaper?

Table, or in the very least bullet points! This is what happens when a "paper" fires all of its sub editors and it's only locals writing stuff that is regurgitated from government press releases. 

 

[DrTuner]

While most by now understand the confirmed count is a heavily filtered number, here's a clincher for those who still doubt it's not "creative accounting": On the day when test numbers suddenly rose from 27k (IIRC) to 70kplus, there was no blip in confirmations whatsoever. That's because the 50k extra was private hospital results and their positive are not confirmed. 

 

MoPH knows the real count. The Confirmed is what's used as a propaganda tool. At least they do have a view of the real situation and have instituted measures accordingly. The re-opening is more politically motivated.

Edited April 21, 2020 by DrTuner