Lockdown update

[Phulublub]

14 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

If you supply some links maybe people will bother to read it

I will decline that invtation. 

 

As I said initially, those who are sufficiently interested can go do some research for themselves.  Others will be content to sit in ignorance or not challenge conclusions they have already reached based on nothing more than heresay or gut feel.

 

Quite apart from that, if I supplied any links, who is to say I would not cherry pick them to suit my own agenda?  If you want to educate yourself to some (to my mind) useful background then Google is your friend.  Not as if you have many other pressing engagement s just now, is it?

 

PH

[scubascuba3]

24 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

I will decline that invtation. 

 

As I said initially, those who are sufficiently interested can go do some research for themselves.  Others will be content to sit in ignorance or not challenge conclusions they have already reached based on nothing more than heresay or gut feel.

 

Quite apart from that, if I supplied any links, who is to say I would not cherry pick them to suit my own agenda?  If you want to educate yourself to some (to my mind) useful background then Google is your friend.  Not as if you have many other pressing engagement s just now, is it?

 

PH

If you can't be bothered to provide links I can't be bothered to search as it may well be guff, so end of story i guess

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, farang51 said:

OK, let's make a another comparison. I will make you a deal; I will give you a fixed amount of money if you will give me an exponential amount of money.

 

I will give you 1 million baht, if you:

give me 1 satang today

Next Monday, you give me 2 satang

Next Monday again, you give me 4 satang

and so forth, exponentially doubling the amount each Monday the rest of the year.

 

Heck, I will even give you 1 million dollar if you do that.

 

If you still do not understand the difference of a non exponential and an exponential amount, then quickly do accept my deal before I regret.

apples oranges etc

[sucit]

2 hours ago, Phulublub said:

I agree that things are evvvling.  There are probably some who are hoping that Sweden will see a marked increase just to prove that they were right all along.  Sad, but that's how some are. 

 

That said, the closest countries to Sweden - Denmark and Norway - both have lock down.  Both have markedly lower death rates (death per populatuon, nothing to do with infection rates or testing rates, or anything else) than Sweden.  So far.

 

PH

 

As I said, I would have to say that is expected. The equation is economy open, more death from coronavirus = economy closed, more death from economy being closed. But I see you said so far, but to me it would be like looking at the score of a baseball game before the home team even came to bat on offense. It is silly. 

[JusticeGB]

There is far less traffic on the road to overtake dangerously that probably is a huge factor in the decline in deaths on the road!

[sucit]

2 hours ago, farang51 said:

OK, let's make a another comparison. I will make you a deal; I will give you a fixed amount of money if you will give me an exponential amount of money.

 

I will give you 1 million baht, if you:

give me 1 satang today

Next Monday, you give me 2 satang

Next Monday again, you give me 4 satang

and so forth, exponentially doubling the amount each Monday the rest of the year.

 

Heck, I will even give you 1 million dollar if you do that.

 

If you still do not understand the difference of a non exponential and an exponential amount, then quickly do accept my deal before I regret.

First of all, in any given population, you have no idea hoe the virus will spread. You are assuming exponential spread. That has happened, but that is not to say you can assume it will happen in the future. Weather for example could completely curtail spread.

 

Thailand has not been exponential, so I am not sure why you think you are so clever for making assumptions that have been shown to be false in many populations. 

 

If you agree with the post I quoted, saying it was meaningless to compare any number to coronavirus deaths, then for example... let's just say this is true for the sake of argument...

 

if you had the same chance of dying from coronavirus as dying from getting hit by lightning... then...

 

NO! That is not meaningless. It is very meaningful. It gives people something to gauge how serious this is. 

 

In fact, a comparison like this would be much MORE meaningful when compared to something like looking at death numbers tick up every hour on a coronavirus alarmist death page with blood red everywhere. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by sucit

[farang51]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

If you can't be bothered to provide links I can't be bothered to search as it may well be guff, so end of story i guess

You can find research papers, but this will probably be an easier read:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html

[donmuang37]

They are just waiting until some of the desperate alcoholics dry out before resuming booze sales!

[brucec64]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

First of all, in any given population, you have no idea hoe the virus will spread. You are assuming exponential spread. That has happened, but that is not to say you can assume it will happen in the future. Weather for example could completely curtail spread.

 

Thailand has not been exponential, so I am not sure why you think you are so clever for making assumptions that have been shown to be false in many populations. 

 

If you agree with the post I quoted, saying it was meaningless to compare any number to coronavirus deaths, then for example... let's just say this is true for the sake of argument...

 

if you had the same chance of dying from coronavirus as dying from getting hit by lightning... then...

 

NO! That is not meaningless. It is very meaningful. It gives people something to gauge how serious this is. 

 

In fact, a comparison like this would be much MORE meaningful when compared to something like looking at death numbers tick up every hour on a coronavirus alarmist death page with blood red everywhere. 

Thailand case growth was exponential, and this initiated a lockdown, and the curve then flattened. A straight line (in yellow) on the logarithmic scale indicates exponential growth. This is what caused the lockdown to be initiated. Without intervention, the numbers would have increased about 10x in about 2 weeks. 2 weeks after that, Thailand could have been in the Italy, Spain range.  

 

[farang51]

1 hour ago, sucit said:

First of all, in any given population, you have no idea hoe the virus will spread. You are assuming exponential spread. That has happened, but that is not to say you can assume it will happen in the future. Weather for example could completely curtail spread.

Clearly, you still do not know what exponential means.

 

There are many things we do not yet know about the virus; however, we DO know that it spreads exponentially. That is not an assumption, that is a fact. Warm weather may make it spread slower, we don't know that yet; social distancing certainly slows it down, so will immunity in a part of the population. No matter the speed it spreads, it spreads exponentially.

 

The exponential spread is expressed in R0, if R0 is above 1, it spreads exponentially and keep spreading. If it is below 1 the exponential spread is slowed down, and it will spread less and less until it stops spreading. In my offer, I used an R0 of 2; we still do not know the exact number for the virus, most estimates, I believe, have been between 1.6 and 2.6 with no restrictions. If it is spread more that what we initially thought, as some new testing could indicate, that would mean a higher R0.

Edited April 27, 2020 by farang51

[Kerryd]

Just had word that apparently they aren't doing the checkpoints today ?

A friend that goes to Pattaya Klang almost daily just mention it. Thought maybe it was because of the rain.

[SidJames]

I heard that there is a meeting this evening to discuss abolishing the checkpoints.

Maybe they have jumped the gun.

People are getting very impatient now

[lkv]

17 minutes ago, farang51 said:

The exponential spread is expressed in R0, if R0 is above 1, it spreads exponentially and keep spreading. If it is below 1 the exponential spread is slowed down, and it will spread less and less until it stops spreading. In my offer, I used an R0 of 2

This is a good article that estimates how restrictions bring down the R0 and how governments will likely use this indicator to try and control the spread.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer.html

[Kerryd]

Here is a nice map and a bunch of data from Bloomberg. 

Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World Updated: April 27, 2020, 2:42 PM GMT+7

[bkkcanuck8]

16 hours ago, Tom9999 said:

The Virus multiplies first in your throat... eat your TomYamGung and your SomTam and you will be OK... 

That is why they have to stick a swab up your throat... oops... no that was far up your nasal cavity... or maybe you are just weirdly constructed ????

There is something to be said about Som Tam... as a dietary positive (in one way - not the sugar way)...  it's ingredients include raw garlic... 

 

Garlic: Immunity Boosting Superstar

[bkkcanuck8]

20 minutes ago, lkv said:

This is a good article that estimates how restrictions bring down the R0 and how governments will likely use this indicator to try and control the spread.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/europe/coronavirus-R0-explainer.html

 

The following link contains several dynamic graphs that are very good at showing the differences between different approaches and the speed at which an infection travels through the population. 

 

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”

 

Also R0 is simply a factor of two numbers: 'The ability to infect' and 'opportunity to infect'. 

You cannot control the virus 'ability to infect', but if you reduce opportunity to zero or near zero the infections would quickly drop to zero in 30 days (of course zero would be the goal, an R0 of less than one would eventually lead to the same end - just over a longer period of time if nearer to 1 than 0.

 

 

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, farang51 said:

You can find research papers, but this will probably be an easier read:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html

Interesting. Much younger age group effected compared to the Corona

[Phulublub]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Interesting. Much younger age group effected compared to the Corona

There is no direct read across from corona to flu, but there are many similarities. 

 

The 1918 epidemic was H1N1 and several well researched and supported theories about older age groups maintaining immunity from pre-1890 outbreaks of H1Nx flu allowed them to better ward off the 1918 version....there are other throories and many research papers on the topic.  One such here:

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069586

 

PH

 

[hobobo]

20 hours ago, lopburi3 said:

Actually the alcohol ban seems to be the key (and they already have that ban in place) - only 6 deaths last Saturday (rather than the normal of about 50).  But I suspect it has more to do with no money to buy alcohol anymore rather than the ban itself.  

And no money for fuel either. You see a bottle of lao khao, and a couple of litres of diesel - which one you're gonna go for?

[BritManToo]

Just now, hobobo said:

And no money for fuel either. You see a bottle of lao khao, and a couple of litres of diesel - which one you're gonna go for?

Yes, I never understand the slightly demented old posters who think anyone but them can't buy alcohol.

[farang51]

23 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Interesting. Much younger age group effected compared to the Corona

Yes, but the most interesting part is in the economy, as some people today mistakenly think it is either restrictions and economic costs or no restrictions and no economic costs. It shows that harsh restrictions can be better for the economy than fewer restrictions.

[Kerryd]

Emergency Decree will be extended another month, says Thai Government

"Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin, the spokesperson of the Covid19 Center for Situation Administration (CCSA), announced this afternoon to the press that the CCSA has taken the advice of the National Security Council and spoken with the Prime Minister of Thailand, Prayut Chan-O-Cha, and that the Emergency Decree will be extended another month."

"Dr. Taweesin stated that although some measures may be eased and will be announced later this week that the National Curfew, from 10:00 PM to 4:00 AM, will stay in place, social gatherings of all sizes are still prohibited, international inbound flights are banned except repatriated Thai Citizens and many domestic travel restrictions will take place. There was no mention of the alcoholic sales ban in every province.
 

Businesses “may” gradually be allowed to open next month based on a color coded system that has been developed and new rules and restrictions set into place to help stop the spread of the Covid-19 Coronavirus."

Edited April 27, 2020 by Kerryd

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

That is why they have to stick a swab up your throat... oops... no that was far up your nasal cavity... or maybe you are just weirdly constructed ????

There is something to be said about Som Tam... as a dietary positive (in one way - not the sugar way)...  it's ingredients include raw garlic... 

 

Garlic: Immunity Boosting Superstar

Washed down by a cheeky little 1993 Chateau Domestos. Mmmmm  nice... ????

[scubascuba3]

30 minutes ago, farang51 said:

Yes, but the most interesting part is in the economy, as some people today mistakenly think it is either restrictions and economic costs or no restrictions and no economic costs. It shows that harsh restrictions can be better for the economy than fewer restrictions.

but a different situation 100 years ago, they say the reason for the growth of the lockdown city after was less work age people died, ok makes sense. The Corona last i looked had an average death age of circ 80 vs Spanish flu 15-34 age group. The over 65 age group isn't going to help growth if retired

Edited April 27, 2020 by scubascuba3

[mrfill]

8 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

but a different situation 100 years ago, they say the reason for the growth of the lockdown city after was less work age people died, ok makes sense. The Corona last i looked had an average death age of circ 80 vs Spanish flu 15-34 age group. The over 65 age group isn't going to help growth if retired

If you're going to bang on about the 1918 flu, bear in mind that cases dropped quite dramatically after about 6 months and after 8 months a second, far more powerful outbreak occurred which lasted around 15 months.

Covid19 has been around for about 6 months.

Of course, the circumstances were rather different in 1918-19 as there was a world war going on and thousands of young (infected) troops were fighting and being moved around a lot and once that finished they were returned to their home countries to spread matters further.

[sevenhills]

21 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Do you (and everyone else who trots this out) ever stop to consider that maybe the restrictions that have been put in place are the reason, or contributing enormously to the fact that there are so few deaths here?

 

PH

Are you seriously that brainwashed? You obviously like having all your rights taken away over a scamdemic. How many people die of the seasonal flu? We don't shut the world down over that snowflake.

[scubascuba3]

9 minutes ago, mrfill said:

If you're going to bang on about the 1918 flu, bear in mind that cases dropped quite dramatically after about 6 months and after 8 months a second, far more powerful outbreak occurred which lasted around 15 months.

Covid19 has been around for about 6 months.

Of course, the circumstances were rather different in 1918-19 as there was a world war going on and thousands of young (infected) troops were fighting and being moved around a lot and once that finished they were returned to their home countries to spread matters further.

it wasn't me who brought up 1918 flu

[bkkcanuck8]

11 minutes ago, sevenhills said:

Are you seriously that brainwashed? You obviously like having all your rights taken away over a scamdemic. How many people die of the seasonal flu? We don't shut the world down over that snowflake.

The Spanish Flu of 1918 (H1N1) killed between 50,000,000 to 100,000,000 people globally at a time the population was 1.5 billion.  And yes, it did shut down things in much the same way (in the US) - though it was more a hap-hazzard approach depending on city... and in that case the cities that implemented social distancing and quarantining earlier and stricter tended to come out of the pandemic in better shape economically than those that did not.

 

In some ways we are better off because of our ability to mitigate the severe cases with oxygen, but if the health system is overwhelmed - we will revert more to the healthcare system of 1918. 

[lagavulin1]

22 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Do you (and everyone else who trots this out) ever stop to consider that maybe the restrictions that have been put in place are the reason, or contributing enormously to the fact that there are so few deaths here?

 

PH

I'm with you. Good job. 

Stay Safe ????

[VBF]

1 hour ago, mrfill said:

Washed down by a cheeky little 1993 Chateau Domestos. Mmmmm  nice... ????

Cheers Donald!