Thailand reports five new coronavirus cases, no new deaths

[earlinclaifornia]

2 hours ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Contact tracing stated here upon the first case from China. America denied it was a problem for months. Easy to see why the huge differences. Now that the " horse got out", I have little hope for any solution short of the vaccine. I hope I am wrong, though.

I am looking at this thinking America could take action after all:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-not-too-late-for-contact-tracing/

[Traubert]

27 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

YOU HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE TRUTH?  It may not be to your liking but casts aside all doubt about the matter.

No need to shout or be rude.

 

Simple fact is some people believe the numbers and I'm one of them. If you disagree, your choice.

[offset]

34 minutes ago, lkv said:

6 units empty out of 20 means 14 full.

 

That translates into 70% ICU occupancy.

 

Very similar to other countries such as Germany, France, with 200,000 reported cases.

Yes but there was no covid cases in the ward and only about 60% beds  available when I left

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

5 hours ago, JCP108 said:

If a lot of extra people had died, there would be those mounds of bodies and all the social media posts that we haven't seen. 

few thousands are not a lot of extra people.

in countries like thailand, authorities can cover easily few thousand deaths.

they can even kill themselves few thousands here and there, in a so called "war on drugs",

or "anti terror operation" without anyone ever knowing the true numbers.

some experts are saying that the true numbers in china are around the hundread's

of thousands - dead people.

however, when dealing with the coronavirus, it is a dangerous game, because things

can get out of hands and the numbers can run to 10's of thousands quickly.

[DavisH]

26 minutes ago, Traubert said:

No need to shout or be rude.

 

Simple fact is some people believe the numbers and I'm one of them. If you disagree, your choice.

There's nothing to suggest the numbers are wrong. I graphed number of cases/100K people vs number of tests/100K population for all countries. Thailnd's value is right in amongst the other countries. It is not an outlier. Ther's no evidence to suggest increasing testing by 10X would result in 10X more positive cases. The nprecent of cases testing positive is very low for the number of tests done. Ofcourse, more are infected than what we are finding, but I suspect that is the case for mose countires. 

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, spermwhale said:

"However, there are four more infected people from the resort island of Phuket, who will be included in figures to be reported on Monday, said Taweesin Wisanuyothin, spokesman for the government's Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration."

 

So 9 cases today, not five. How can they say with a straight face that there are 5 cases but and additional four will be reported on Monday? Those cases didn't surface on Monday, they surfaced today. 

What a crock of S***

Probably, they are being tested a second time. There is probably a reason for it. No need to get your knickers in a knot. 

[JCP108]

16 minutes ago, DavisH said:

There's nothing to suggest the numbers are wrong. I graphed number of cases/100K people vs number of tests/100K population for all countries. Thailnd's value is right in amongst the other countries. It is not an outlier. Ther's no evidence to suggest increasing testing by 10X would result in 10X more positive cases. The nprecent of cases testing positive is very low for the number of tests done. Ofcourse, more are infected than what we are finding, but I suspect that is the case for mose countires. 

Did you include all countries when you figured the average number of cases/100k people or did you exclude the ones that either have reporting problems or haven't actually tested very many people?

 

When you figured the tests/100k people in Thailand did you exclude the tests whose results aren't being counted or did you use the number of tests performed even though that is about three times as high as the number done at the two reference labs where the results get reported?

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

1 hour ago, lkv said:

6 units empty out of 20 means 14 full.

 

That translates into 70% ICU occupancy.

 

Very similar to other countries such as Germany, France, with 200,000 reported cases.

in thailand most people are not insured, not to the level that will allow ICU care.

so what happans when they suffer from COVID  is what happans when they suffer

from other deadly deseases -  they are being sent to die at home.

 

i was once staying in a hotel where a person in a nearby room was coughing badly 

every day.

when i asked, the hotel worker told me he is dying from cancer and his

family paid the room monthly because it is cheaper than hospital.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Simple fact is some people believe the numbers and I'm one of them. 

And that's the cause of "why you doubting the gospel". Belief. Just as you can't tell a believer walking on water just doesn't happen, you can't tell the true believers in the usurpers that the numbers they spout out are propaganda. Because their world would shatter into million pieces if their faith was destroyed. 

 

Head two feet firmly in the sand, fellas, and if you feel a fist up the trademan's, that's just the cost of faith. It'll probably just be me with some new data anyway.

 

In case anybody's interested in joining their cohorts, Mao wrote a nice little red book that's still studied in detail by millions in China, a few years of intense absorbing of the learnings should get you there.

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

few thousands are not a lot of extra people.

in countries like thailand, authorities can cover easily few thousand deaths.

they can even kill themselves few thousands here and there, in a so called "war on drugs",

or "anti terror operation" without anyone ever knowing the true numbers.

some experts are saying that the true numbers in china are around the hundread's

of thousands - dead people.

however, when dealing with the coronavirus, it is a dangerous game, because things

can get out of hands and the numbers can run to 10's of thousands quickly.

Even one or 2 sick under suspicious circumstances would get the whole village up in arms. Anyone coming back to the country and put into 'home quarantine' are watched closely. Believe it of not, Thais are frigntened of this disease, especially those in more developed areas. Evenrone has social media these days and stories of mass deaths would be all over the internet. There's no way thousands of seatchs could be hushed up - they all need death certificates with the cause of death on it. So unless you have direct evidence of this, we'd all love to know. Photos and videos would be good too. Until then...

Edited May 10, 2020 by DavisH

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Evewn one or 2 sick under suspicious circumstances would get the whole village up in arms. Evenrony has social media these days and these stories would be all over the internet. There's no way thousands of seatchs could be hushed up - they all need death certificates with the cause of death on it. So unless you have direct evidence of this, we'd all love to know. Photos and videos would be good too. Until then...

Didn't someone in here explain recently that when someone dies at home (as Thais do about 70% of the time), nobody really determines the cause of death in terms of the objective medical explanation. The police just show up and ask and then write down whatever someone tells them. If that's true, then death certificate data in Thailand isn't going to be helpful to us.

[Justgrazing]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand reported five new coronavirus cases but no deaths on Sunday, bringing the total to 3,009 cases and 56 deaths since the outbreak started in the country in January

And amazingly despite this apparent world leading success in the fight against C V it doesn't make it onto International news .. Other nations who have on the face of it got to grips with it like S Korea and Germany have had some of their success held up as the way to go ( though both have had infection rate spikes the last few days ) .. But no mention of Thailand with it's apparent very low infection rate and even lower mortality rate .. How can this be .. 

[White Christmas13]

1 minute ago, Justgrazing said:

And amazingly despite this apparent world leading success in the fight against C V it doesn't make it onto International news .. Other nations who have on the face of it got to grips with it like S Korea and Germany have had some of their success held up as the way to go ( though both have had infection rate spikes the last few days ) .. But no mention of Thailand with it's apparent very low infection rate and even lower mortality rate .. How can this be .. 

You know the answer already

[JCP108]

4 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

You know the answer already

Well if the rest of the world doesn't believe the numbers being reported here, they had better wake up and smell the somtam and Thai discipline and whatever the heck is going on in China that got their number all the way to zero. 

 

If the numbers here weren't true, mounds of dead bodies, social media posts. We would know.

[White Christmas13]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

And CCP trolls have been have been here since January. 

no Traubert has been here for a long time.

[josephbloggs]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

Didn't someone in here explain recently that when someone dies at home (as Thais do about 70% of the time), nobody really determines the cause of death in terms of the objective medical explanation. The police just show up and ask and then write down whatever someone tells them. If that's true, then death certificate data in Thailand isn't going to be helpful to us.

Ah yeah, great evidence.  "I think some anonymous bloke on the forum said it so it must be true".  Brilliant.

[JCP108]

7 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

Ah yeah, great evidence.  "I think some anonymous bloke on the forum said it so it must be true".  Brilliant.

Right. I get that.

 

So, until someone provides better explanation than what I offered, let's assume that all death certificates in Thailand (even those of people who die at home) are highly accurate in regards to the objective cause of death (meaning that a competent medical professional investigates and records it). And, let us assume that if Covid 19 were causing a lot of deaths in Thailand that aren't being reported in the daily summary briefings, that whoever, would know about that from seeing these certificates would blow the whistle so that we would know not to believe the briefings. In the meantime, let's also assume the numbers were being given are valid. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by JCP108

[lkv]

If you do an xray on the majority of the Thai population, and you tell them they don't have the virus, they will believe you.

 

Tell them PCR, they will have no idea what you are talking about.

 

No wonder, they never saw one done in the village, nor have they seen a swab taken to be sent to the provincial lab.

[josephbloggs]

15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Right. I get that.

 

So, until someone provides better explanation than what I offered, let's assume that all death certificates in Thailand (even those of people who die at home) are highly accurate in regards to the objective cause of death (meaning that a competent medical professional investigates and records it). And, let us assume that if Covid 19 were causing a lot of deaths in Thailand that aren't being reported in the daily summary briefings, that whoever, would know about that from seeing these certificates would blow the whistle so that we would know not to believe the briefings. In the meantime, let's also assume the numbers were being given are valid. 

Apologies, I think I misunderstood the tone of your post and got the wrong end of the stick.

I actually agree with you, I also believe the reported numbers must be pretty accurate.  Of course we will never know but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to support it.  I personally know four people in the UK who have had Covid (all recovered), one of my foreign staff lost their father to it (not in Thailand).  I have been here 25 years and have Thai friends, family, extended family, Thai staff who also have friends and family and not one single person has ever heard of anyone wth Covid 19, nor anybody having symptoms or even getting a fever.  Yes, it is anecdotal evidence and would not be admitted in court, but all the people who drone on here every single day that the numbers are lies cannot back it up and it is getting boring.

 

[Maybole]

2 hours ago, DavisH said:

There's nothing to suggest the numbers are wrong. I graphed number of cases/100K people vs number of tests/100K population for all countries. Thailnd's value is right in amongst the other countries. It is not an outlier. Ther's no evidence to suggest increasing testing by 10X would result in 10X more positive cases. The nprecent of cases testing positive is very low for the number of tests done. Ofcourse, more are infected than what we are finding, but I suspect that is the case for mose countires. 

I also agree. My local Ampeu has never reported any case. There have been several rumours of alleged cases, all of which have have very quickly subsided as it became obvious that they were false. In my Moo there has not even been a death for any reason for 3 months, in contrast with January when we had 4 funerals in one month.

[JCP108]

8 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

... but all the people who drone on here every single day that the numbers are lies cannot back it up and it is getting boring.

 

No prob.

 

In my opinion, the onus doesn't lie as you say on those here who are being critical of the reported numbers to back it up. What they are criticizing has holes in it and the onus is on the MOPH to clarify things by releasing data. Several issues have been named including tests being counted when their results aren't, high PUI numbers without associated testing and the cases seeming to be surprisingly low, Thailand (and China) seeming to have an unusually low number of cases compared to the rest of the world while also not revealing health data to back it up, and trends claimed when only an insignificant portion of the population has been tested (if you only count tests performed whose results are revealed). These are all reasons to raise questions and it is not the questioners who have to back that up with data. Logic is the validation. 

 

My personal "drone" has been to try to say compellingly that the simple dismissal of the criticisms and proof that the numbers must be close to the truth is no mounds of dead bodies and no social media posts about unusual cases or amounts of cases. My assertion (which I get is soundly rejected by many here) is that when health issues fly along at 110% of what they have been, they look about like they did when they were at 100% and no mounds of dead bodies are there to have to hide...you just ignore them. And, no individual cases cause the families to know these wide public health data issue answers either. So, we don't get it that way, either. (See the case in Florida where the data actually was published but the government was reporting a lower amount and it was only outed when investigative journalists saw it...no mounds of bodies revealed it and no families posted about it...only people who ran the numbers and saw one set being 10% higher saved the day.) If Thailand has been running 10% higher deaths per month, that would be and extra 5k per month and that concerns some because that would indicate the need for different public health measures which are not being taken due to the cases being reported as so low (such as different methods and amounts of testing). That's the concern that some have. 

 

If nobody was dying at all and people started dying, sure we would see social media posts about that. But, people are dying all the time and Thai people don't generally post alarmed social media messages about those deaths. The concern is about the overall likely increase of amounts of deaths (could be 5, 10, 15% higher than normal) and that data wouldn't be available to any one family...only the MOPH. 

 

When Thailand and China are outliers in infection rates and are also not being open with their health data, they have to explain things, not the people who point that out. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by JCP108

[Moonlover]

14 hours ago, spermwhale said:

"However, there are four more infected people from the resort island of Phuket, who will be included in figures to be reported on Monday, said Taweesin Wisanuyothin, spokesman for the government's Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration."

 

So 9 cases today, not five. How can they say with a straight face that there are 5 cases but and additional four will be reported on Monday? Those cases didn't surface on Monday, they surfaced today. 

What a crock of S***

So yesterday was Sunday. It just may be that the person who compiles and sends the data to the CCSA took a day off. Rest days are still allowed I hope.

 

So the data from Phuket will be one day late. What's the big deal?

[JCP108]

10 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

So yesterday was Sunday. It just may be that the person who compiles and sends the data to the CCSA took a day off. Rest days are still allowed I hope.

 

So the data from Phuket will be one day late. What's the big deal?

It's possible people are sensitive because some past cases seem to have not been ever reported. 

 

Remember back when we jumped from 22k tests performed to 75k? We tripled the number of tests performed in one single day. If the yet uncounted tests had had the same positive hit rate as the one that had been reported, there should have been a tripling of the cases at the same time. There wasn't. That number never went up by that amount. Things like that make some observers suspicious. 

[moe666]

There are a few here who will not be happy until the virus numbers sky rocket, they keep talking and calculating but the numbers just do not want to cooperate. The one country I would suspect is hiding the actual numbers is the US.

[Traubert]

28 minutes ago, moe666 said:

There are a few here who will not be happy until the virus numbers sky rocket, they keep talking and calculating but the numbers just do not want to cooperate. The one country I would suspect is hiding the actual numbers is the US.

They would be the ones that cant accept any success that shows their own country is lacking in planning and looks after its people better. Thailand would be a case in point.

[SkyFax]

14 hours ago, DrTuner said:

16 hours ago, SkyFax said:

He's been trying to prove they're fudging the numbers for about 4 months now. You wouldn't want him to lose face, would you?

And CCP trolls have been have been here since January. 

That's OK -- I remember your 14FEB2020 prediction that (maybe) in 2 or 3 weeks panic would set in and ICU units overrun. Then when in 3 weeks that didn't happen you went into a song-&-dance routine that that isn't what you really meant

 

I am in a rural area where you can't enter a 7-11 without  a temperature check and gunk sprayed into your hands. I make sure as best as possible that, even if I were to encounter an asymptomatic COVID positive person, they would not be in transmission mode with me.

 

Whether the usurpers are spreading propaganda and the BIG LIE has little effect on my day-today mode to get through this thing. I leave the detailed epidemiological analysis to others qualified or otherwise.

Edited May 11, 2020 by SkyFax

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, moe666 said:

There are a few here who will not be happy until the virus numbers sky rocket, they keep talking and calculating but the numbers just do not want to cooperate. The one country I would suspect is hiding the actual numbers is the US.

The numbers reported do not want to cooperate. 

 

Seems to me that to say that would be a misread of the posts that have raised legitimate criticisms of reported numbers. Nobody is likely very happy with sky rocketing numbers of infections here or anywhere. Criticism of reports does not equate with cheering for a particular outcome. To focus on imaginary happiness at high numbers is a red herring. 

 

Is not asking any questions the way that we affirm that we want the numbers to be low? I hope not. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by JCP108

[LoS itaint]

Coronavirus WHO figures as of today, deaths...Europe 153k, N America 90k, Asia 22k, S America 16k, Africa 2k, Oceana (Aus & NZ) 118!...........Bojo has devised a 3 stage lock down exit, lol....***STAY ALERT***...

 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, SkyFax said:

That's OK -- I remember your 14FEB2020 prediction that (maybe) in 2 or 3 weeks panic would set in and ICU units overrun. Then when in 3 weeks that didn't happen you went into a song-&-dance routine that that isn't what you really meant

 

I am in a rural area where you can't enter a 7-11 without  a temperature check and gunk sprayed into your hands. I make sure as best as possible that, even if I were to encounter an asymptomatic COVID positive person, they would not be in transmission mode with me.

 

Whether the usurpers are spreading propaganda and the BIG LIE has little effect on my day-today mode to get through this thing. I leave the detailed epidemiological analysis to others qualified or otherwise.

And I shall continue that song & dance until I find a theory that fits. If I had the same info I had on 14.2, I would still do the same prediction. It came true in other countries and apparently also in Thailand (according to Dr. Boon) the wards reserved for COVID-19 patients did fill up in Bangkok. At the time MoPH was actively suppressing information about the testing capability, the situation took weeks to become visible. 

 

The real question is why did it not happen. I don't buy the climate theory, other warm countries are suffering. Hence my current theory is that of the D614 strain being the prevalent here and that being the cause of "flattening the curve" and no ICU overflow - it's a lesser strain. 

 

It's good that the seven in your area offers hand sanitizer and you're taking precautions. I see you too don't trust the numbers then, since if you did, the probability of you getting infected should be something like 0.000000001% and there would be no need for such precautions.

 

I'll keep on doing my own analysis and depending on that one.

[SkyFax]

36 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And I shall continue that song & dance until I find a theory that fits.

Great. Peer-reviewed on ThaiVisa.