Thailand tourist arrivals may fall by as much as 65% in 2020 due to virus outbreak

By Panarat Thepgumpanat

 

FILE PHOTO: A man collects his umbrellas on an almost empty beach which usually crowed with tourists following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Pattaya, Thailand March 27, 2020. Picture taken March 27, 2020. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The number of foreign tourists in Thailand may plunge by almost two-thirds to 14 million this year, the lowest level in 14 years, as the coronavirus pandemic hits global travel, estimates from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) showed on Monday.

 

The TAT now predicts only 14 million to 16 million foreign visitors this year, sharply down from 33.8 million projected in March. Last year's foreign arrivals were a record 39.8 million.

 

Tourism is crucial to Thailand as spending from foreign tourists amounted to 1.93 trillion baht ($59.98 billion), or 11% of GDP last year.

 

The tourism authority is hoping foreign visitors will return to Thailand in October, the country's high tourist season, TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn told Reuters.

 

"Our best case scenario is that domestic tourism will start to improve in June or July, while foreign visitors should come in around October," he said.

 

"Forward bookings are showing a good trend, with smaller drops. But that will also depend on the outbreak situation and travel restrictions," he added.

 

The TAT is preparing a rehabilitation plan for the sector, which should be completed by early June, Yuthasak said.

 

Thailand has reported 3,015 cases and 56 deaths since the outbreak began in the country in January, with recent daily new infections slowing to single digits.

 

The country has extended a ban on incoming passenger flights, imposed on April 4, until the end of May to try to curb the pandemic, which has infected more than 4 million people globally.

 

In the January-March period, foreign tourist numbers in Thailand slumped 38% to 6.69 million, with the number of Chinese visitors, Thailand's biggest source of tourists, plunging 60% to 1.25 million.

 

(Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

 

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-05-11

 

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14 to 16 million.  Optimistic bunch, aren't they? lol

you can tell the government is planing on opening everything soon. 

otherwise this number would be a drop of 80%. 

look for full on business as usual maybe August or September. 

 

damn the virus, full speed ahead!

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by NCC1701A

Using a 4 years old file picture is bad enough, but why include what appears to be 4 years old text also?

Is the proof reader 4 years old?

 

FILE PHOTO: Tourists walk outside a shopping mall in Bangkok, Thailand, January 11, 2016. Thai tourism revenue is forecast to grow nearly 9 percent to touch 2.4 trillion baht ($66.12 billion) this year, the tourism minister said on Monday, on the back of increased focus on visitors from the ASEAN region and domestic travellers. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

This is a good thing in my opinion Thailand has been treating foreigners really badly for a while now. we have been forced to put up with increasing xenophobia in recent years along with an increase in crazy immigration rules that have made many feel unwelcome and quite frankly making Thailand not as attractive as it used to be as a hassle free tourist destination.

 

Lets hope that when less of tourists show up this year they will be humbled a bit and realise that they will need to be more fair in order to win the tourists back I'm hoping that in their absence they will begin to see the benefits that foreigners bring more clearly.

 

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by misterjames

Let's assume no tourists after March 2020 ..... that's 75% loss.

Probably no tourists in 2021 at all ........ 100% loss.

 

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by BritManToo

there is a God after all !!

 

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Let's assume no tourists after March 2020 ..... that's 75% loss.

Probably no tourists in 2021 at all ........ 100% loss.

 

Yes Britmantoo, I believe your onto something.  The US and the rest of the world is expecting it to take up to 4 years to recover.  However, Hope and reality are unfortunately 2 different things when it comes to Thailand.  They never hope to have visitors or tourists, they just have TAT put a spin on it and presto the numbers they want or expect come out of some ones <deleted> even though its not a reality...

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Let's assume no tourists after March 2020 ..... that's 75% loss.

Probably no tourists in 2021 at all ........ 100% loss.

 

So does the hourly rate increase to compensate for the lack of business or decrease out of desperation?

Just now, Don Mega said:

Expensive imported western food I rarely purchase, cant remember the last time I ate out let alone at a western restaurant and the missus frowns upon me bringing hookers home anyways.

Not much in the way of local substitutes for English breakfast tea, Marmite or Gravy granules.

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by BritManToo

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Let's assume no tourists after March 2020 ..... that's 75% loss.

Probably no tourists in 2021 at all ........ 100% loss.

 

Well I would agree that there will probably be few if any tourists for the remainder of this year.

 

I suspect that there may be a resurgence ( not necessarily a dramatic one) amongst package groups from South and East Asia next year. They are not noted for being free spending, certainly away from the "shopping attractions" to which they are bussed.

 

So the mother of one of my daughter's pals, who works in a Chiang Rai restaurant, Chinese owned, which solely caters for Chinese tour groups will probably get her job back, but anyone whose business or jobs depend on catering for independent or Western tourists, forget it.

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Not much in the way of local substitutes for English breakfast tea, Marmite or Gravy granules.

I'd prefer to eat dirt than any of those.

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Not much in the way of local substitutes for English breakfast tea.

"Heldive" (Sri Lankan import into Big C) does a pretty good Breakfast tea. But most businesses catering for Western customers will have to rely on the expat community, which away from Pattaya/Bangkok/Chiang Mai is pretty thin on the ground in most areas - even if you disregard the curmudgeons who never...

5 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

I'd prefer to eat dirt than any of those.

Well that may go some way towards explaining your remarkably cheerful disposition...

Just now, JAG said:

Well that may go some way towards explaining your remarkably cheerful disposition...

I came for the culture, not the <deleted> I can buy at the corner store at home.

Just now, JAG said:

"Heldive" (Sri Lankan import into Big C) does a pretty good Breakfast tea. But most businesses catering for Western customers will have to rely on the expat community, which away from Pattaya/Bangkok/Chiang Mai is pretty thin on the ground in most areas - even if you disregard the curmudgeons who never...

Unfortunately very weak, only good for 1 or 2 mugs of tea from 1 bag and 200bht.

Tesco Original was strong enough for 3 or 4 mugs/bag and cost 115bht.

 

Heladiv works out at 3x-4x the cost.

Edited May 11, 20206 yr by BritManToo

11 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

I'd prefer to eat dirt than any of those.

Agree with you on the marmite & gravy granules, but i do like a nice cuppa tea ????

Just now, BritManToo said:

Unfortunately very weak, only good for 1 or 2 mugs of tea from 1 bag and 200bht.

Tesco Original was strong enough for 3 or 4 mugs/bag and cost 115bht.

 

Heladive works out at 4x the cost.

is that like 115b/200b per tea bag ?

Well, they recently fell by 100%, right?

Just now, Don Mega said:

is that like 115b/200b per tea bag ?

115bht 80 bags Vs 200bht 100 bags

In the UK the Tesco Original cost 44bht for 80 bags (3 month supply at 3 mugs of tea a day). 

23 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

So your OK with no stores stocking imported western food, no western restaurants, and no hookers selling to white folk?

First 2 are unnecessary with all that delicious Thai food about ...as for the 3rd one....they'll continue to follow the money! ????????

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

115bht 80 bags Vs 200bht 100 bags

In the UK the Tesco Original cost 44bht for 80 bags (3 month supply at 3 mugs of tea a day). 

hahahahahahahahahahaha so 2 cups from a bag that costs 2b........ and complains............. is that taking cheap charlie to a new level ?

Depends.  How many tourists have entered before the pandemic really blew up?  

Add in another 50,000 under "tourist" visa visas (how that will happen nobody knows) and that's the tourism for 2020.  65 percent?  Probably 90-95 percent.  

Buffoons are good at feeding the guppies morsels of tranquilizers.  

Tourism 15% of Thai GDP, down by 65%. So now they have lost nearly 10% of GDP on tourism alone.

Could be good, because if they don't devalue the baht, it will be even worse.

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

Tourism 15% of Thai GDP, down by 65%. So now they have lost nearly 10% of GDP on tourism alone.

Could be good, because if they don't devalue the baht, it will be even worse.

Plus a whopping 5 percent of GDP just for spinoffs of the tourism industry alone.  

These numbers sound like nothing but when you put it all into perspective, it's going to be brutal.  Not to mention manufacturing which has basically ground to a halt as demand has cratered worldwide.  

How low can it go?  No idea but these numbers look purely awful for Thailand.  It is, contrary to popular belief, very dependent on tourist dollars that no longer exist.  Overnight it all evaporated and isn't going to come back.  

im leaning toward favor a weakening of the baht,

i dont really care how and why, i just want more purchase power, thnx

13 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Tourism 15% of Thai GDP, down by 65%. So now they have lost nearly 10% of GDP on tourism alone.

Could be good, because if they don't devalue the baht, it will be even worse.

It is surely a good thing when people who never harmed anybody and simply tried to make a living have nothing to eat and stand in line for a plate of rice !

... other than that it is a very good thing that you get more for your buck if there is anything left to buy and

your buck is still worth <deleted> anywhere when your currency is also devalued.

 

Surely this economic disaster will not affect you or any currency you have ... maybe not !

Maybe Karma is real ... and people like you who wish bad things to others will have to face it themselves... Somehow I might hope so !!!

 

 

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Tourism 15% of Thai GDP, down by 65%. So now they have lost nearly 10% of GDP on tourism alone.

Could be good, because if they don't devalue the baht, it will be even worse

But according to Thai logic, they'll try to increase the value of the Baht to make up for their loss.

There will be more scares,if second wave occurs,time for departure,I could not face it all again

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Tourism 15% of Thai GDP, down by 65%. So now they have lost nearly 10% of GDP on tourism alone.

Could be good, because if they don't devalue the baht, it will be even worse.

That's the government choice. They still keep banning beaches and they still keep annoying people who have a good time and socializing at night, falsely believing they are doing good in stopping the virus spread. With their counterproductive hard work they are going to reach that desirabale goal of 0 tourists.