Only one new Covid-19 case, pointing to constant improvement in situation

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

WELL we all know how this pandemic started  - by authoritarian regime trying

hard to hide an outbreak.

very dangerous game is been played in thailand.

then numbers are funny and completly manipulated in accordance with the

global lockdown and expected reopening.

if it was up to the thai authorities, they would keep the economy open and

would not care less about few thousand deaths, maybe it was the right thing

to do.

but don't believe a second to those numbers. insult to any intelligence.

[offset]

8 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

WELL we all know how this pandemic started  - by authoritarian regime trying

hard to hide an outbreak.

very dangerous game is been played in thailand.

then numbers are funny and completly manipulated in accordance with the

global lockdown and expected reopening.

if it was up to the thai authorities, they would keep the economy open and

would not care less about few thousand deaths, maybe it was the right thing

to do.

but don't believe a second to those numbers. insult to any intelligence.

While I think that the figures supplied are not completely true there are now 49 provinces with no cases for more that 28 days, and I cannot understand why we have not heard about even 1 case in these provinces on social media or via Thai gossip

 

In my province we have not had reported case foe 40 days and I have not heard of any here, but when we had 2 cases in Jan/Feb I heard about then a day or two before they were reported

[JCP108]

22 minutes ago, offset said:

While I think that the figures supplied are not completely true there are now 49 provinces with no cases for more that 28 days, and I cannot understand why we have not heard about even 1 case in these provinces on social media or via Thai gossip

 

In my province we have not had reported case foe 40 days and I have not heard of any here, but when we had 2 cases in Jan/Feb I heard about then a day or two before they were reported

Please do not read this as sarcastic but I am genuinely interested...

 

Have you heard of any cases of pneumonia in your local area? Seems from one government source there have been several thousand deaths from pneumonia since the start of the calendar year though today they also said there were only 50. So, the HDC data and past years' data would be around 137 times as high as the number reported today. 

 

Would the lack of local stories, gossip, and social media posts about pneumonia deaths make you inclined to believe that there were actually only around 50 and not 7,000?

Edited May 14, 2020 by JCP108

[offset]

10 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Please do not read this as sarcastic but I am genuinely interested...

 

Have you heard of any cases of pneumonia in your local area? Seems from one government source there have been several thousand deaths from pneumonia since the start of the calendar year though today they also said there were only 50. Would the lack of local stories, gossip, and social media posts about pneumonia deaths make you inclined to believe that there were actually only around 50 and not 7,000?

I understand what you are trying to say but pneumonia is not talked about in the news as covid 19 is, I would think that not many Thais know what pneumonia is but I would think most know about covid

 

Oh and they not have a tv station for pneumonia like they have for covid 19

Edited May 14, 2020 by offset

[JCP108]

1 minute ago, offset said:

I understand what you are trying to say but pneumonia is not talked about in the news as covid 19 is, I would think that not many Thais know what pneumonia is but I would think most know about covid

 

Oh and they not have a station for pneumonia like they have for covid 19

Thanks for responding. I'm still not fully getting how pneumonia deaths could be about 137 times as high as reported and no mounds of bodies or social media reports...but, can't be true of Covid 19 (that it's way, way higher than reported) or we would see the mounds of bodies and get the reports. Yes. There has been a lot of focus on Covid 19 lately. But, Thai people aren't completely ignorant of their loved ones dying by any cause and aren't completely ignorant of what pneumonia is...or so ignorant and in a different way the the same arguments would not apply.

 

Confused.

[DrTuner]

Now that I have noticed how long the delays in getting the actual reports to BoE ( Bureau of Epidemiology ) can be, it brings an additional hurdle towards opening up. To be effective for tracing, the testing data must be near real-time:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e

 

The infra for all of it is lacking, from years of not updating to internet based systems. It'll be a lot of manual work with phones, faxes and carrier pigeons.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

And seems there's some news from Spain that might give a hint of how large a percentage of infections could go unnoticed:

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html

 

Quote

Another way to look at the preliminary results is that over 90% of infections in Spain have gone undetected by the healthcare system. Official figures as of Wednesday showed 228,691 positive cases confirmed by PCR lab tests, which detect active infections.

Yet the study suggests that over two million people have contracted the virus at some point, and that many were not even aware of it.

 

This seems to go along with my going theory that Thailand had the D614 strain in November-February and it swept the country without anybody noticing it.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner
typo

[offset]

12 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Thanks for responding. I'm still not fully getting how pneumonia deaths could be about 137 times as high as reported and no mounds of bodies or social media reports...but, can't be true of Covid 19 (that it's way, way higher than reported) or we would see the mounds of bodies and get the reports. Yes. There has been a lot of focus on Covid 19 lately. But, Thai people aren't completely ignorant of their loved ones dying by any cause and aren't completely ignorant of what pneumonia is...or so ignorant and in a different way the the same arguments would not apply.

 

Confused.

I have been thinking the PUI figures are those that had covid but did not have to stay in hospital and were sent home to self quarantine, and they are only quoting the people that was sick enough to require hospital treatment but that does not explain the low death rate

Edited May 14, 2020 by offset

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

"This is still a satisfying number; however everyone still needs to be on guard against the virus," Dr Taweesin said.

And the PUI numbers within the public domain remain at what?

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

18 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

no mounds of bodies or social media reports

that's because they burn the bodies.

to see what is really going on in thailand you should look at christian countries

with similar climate - south america, where they bury the bodies and not burn them

like the budhists do.

and social media report?

well, you never believed there is anyting "social" about the social media, both

in buddhists and christian countries. the reports there are absolutely controlled by

technology which decided what posts become "viral".

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That the R506 source uses some other method for counting deaths due to pneumonia than the death certificates, and that the data there is what is in the graph.

 

It also tells the same as the graph: the case count in 2020 was higher than 2019 in January and February. The drop since then might be because people aren't going to hospitals to be diagnosed because they are afraid of the covid. And it's unknown how long it takes to feed those stats to the system, could have a lag of months.

 

Not really that useful info at all, but good to know that system exists as well.

It means the books are being cooked.....

[JCP108]

6 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

that's because they burn the bodies.

to see what is really going on in thailand you should look at christian countries

with similar climate - south america, where they bury the bodies and not burn them

like the budhists do.

and social media report?

well, you never believed there is anyting "social" about the social media, both

in buddhists and christian countries. the reports there are absolutely controlled by

technology which decided what posts become "viral".

Perhaps, but my question is this:

 

Today we heard that there have been 50 deaths by pneumonia this year. Other government data that reports on death certificate information says that the number is 137 times that high even if Bangkok data is excluded. Past data from previous years supports the higher numbers. Nobody seems to think that such a disparity of reporting versus reality in the case of pneumonia deaths could at all apply to Covid 19 deaths? 

 

Those of us who have raised that question have been quite aggressively argued against with the main points being that there couldn't be a lot more Covid 19 deaths than reported as they would produce mounds of dead bodies, overwhelm hospitals, and common Thai people would realize it and report it via social media. 

 

I'm truly confused about how that argument against the Covid 19 reports being wildly low doesn't apply to pneumonia reports. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by JCP108

[offset]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It means the books are being cooked.....

I think the books are being cooked the world over

[metisdead]

A post with profane derogatory comments and a reply has been removed. 

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It means the books are being cooked.....

It's sort of a natural phenomenon around here. Inefficiences, bureaucracy, etc cause delays and mishandlings that in the end all pile up into the indicators based on a house of cards that the usurpers then spout out to further their agenda. The base data itself might be legit, but the lack of it's availability makes it all mush.

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

It's sort of a natural phenomenon around here. Inefficiences, bureaucracy, etc cause delays and mishandlings that in the end all pile up into the indicators based on a house of cards that the usurpers then spout out to further their agenda. The base data itself might be legit, but the lack of it's availability makes it all mush.

It is truly amazing in this day and age that such tom foolery can be gotten away with.  However, when you use scare tactics, and some of the laws on the books they have, it is no wonder that no one really does come forward.  When they do, they are immediately discredited, and cases mounted against them to where they either flee the country to save themselves, or they are locked away somewhere and hounded constantly and told that if they want out they must never discuss things again, much like the college student, who we have not heard from in some time....

[dave moir]

9 hours ago, Guderian said:

So that one new case resets Thailand's clock back to zero already, and yet the head honcho still seems to want zero new cases for 28 consecutive days before he will consider reopening thr beaches and swimming pools, never mind letting tourism get started again. It's going to be a long hot season, folks!

That one new case was in Chiang Mai where there had been no new cases in approximately 26 days!

[JCP108]

Maybe there have been cases in Chiang Mai before this but not reported to us.

 

Could there be cases all over (say, 137 times what is being reported) and we just don't know about them?

 

Yesterday Taweesin reported 50 deaths from pneumonia this year and another Thai government source which uses death certificate information reports over 7k such deaths (and that excludes Bangkok data). So, it's actually 137 times as much as reported! And, no mounds of dead bodies or social media posts to refute the low number! The way we know it is through death certificate data (which unfortunately isn't available for Covid-19 deaths). 

 

If it can happen with pneumonia deaths, why not with Covid 19 deaths?

[wensiensheng]

17 hours ago, Traubert said:

There is a fella in China passed seven tests. His eighth one was positive.

 

Forgive me for not having faith in testing. It hasnt helped UK or USA as far as I can see.

Are you Donald Trump in disguise? Like the Donald you completely misunderstand the purpose of tests. They are not preventative in terms of the virus. In other words, you can test negative umpteen times, before eventually testing positive. Put simply, you don’t have the virus until you have the virus.

 

the point of testing is that IF you test positive, preventative action can then be taken. Namely, isolate yourself, and trace any of your contacts and isolate them so that they don’t infect others.

 

for the guy you reference, each time he tested negative, he could work with confidence of being negative. Once positive, isolate so as not to be a danger to others.

 

its hard to believe that this concept is still not understood by some people, even after having the virus in our midst for so long.

Edited May 15, 2020 by wensiensheng

[ThailandRyan]

A new day and now 7 new cases so on the upswing again...., teeter totter effect....