Post with a YouTube link from a non authoritative source has been removed

 

Posts with nonsense conspiracy theories have been removed, along woth replies to them

 

Those who think that the various measures taken to reduce spread of the pandemic are unprecedented need to read a lot more history

 

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Yup, would have been good to understand what's going on in China.

Here's a little new info on that, a damning report (lengthy), must read. Some interesting observations also on the first patient in Thailand 

 

Leaked internal recordings from WHO reveal an extraordinary story of the frustration they had with China not giving the information needed. Dr Ryan was particularly frustrated and wanted to issue a public rebuke because of the lack of speedy information from China. Dr Tedros, well, he does not come out of this very well.

 

Here's a couple of cherry picked snippets, it a lengthy report well worth reading.

 

WHO officials were lauding China in public because they wanted to coax more information out of the government, the recordings obtained by the AP suggest. Privately, they complained in meetings the week of Jan. 6 that China was not sharing enough data to assess how effectively the virus spread between people or what risk it posed to the rest of the world, costing valuable time.

 

“We’re currently at the stage where yes, they’re giving it to us 15 minutes before it appears on CCTV,” said WHO’s top official in China, Dr. Gauden Galea, referring to the state-owned China Central Television, in another meeting.

 

In the second week of January, WHO’s chief of emergencies, Dr. Michael Ryan, told colleagues it was time to “shift gears” and apply more pressure on China

 

https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae

 

 

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

The anglo-saxon media has definitely tried to spin Sweden's policies as irresponsible, heartless and misguided. There were countless articles attacking Sweden's approach.

 

The reason was of course that the British were aware they were in a hard mandatory lockdown and another country keeping its cool, and not overreacting the same way, was making the Brits look a bit foolish, overly scared and over the top. So they wanted Sweden to fail. 

 

Now we know that Sweden got it right and the UK got it badly wrong and overreacted those articles have stopped, strangely. 

 

 

 

That's an odd take and inaccurate!

 

Taken from Daily Mail article on ONS figures: 

 

62k excess deaths - ONS 

There have been almost 62,000 deaths above what would normally be expected in the UK during the coronavirus outbreak, while deaths involving Covid-19 continue to fall.

There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22, compared with the average number of deaths for that period over five years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

 

I guess it could have been 100k if UK had not gone in to lockdown.

 

I do agree that lockdown is not the answer long term.

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

That's an odd take and inaccurate!

 

Taken from Daily Mail article on ONS figures: 

 

62k excess deaths - ONS 

There have been almost 62,000 deaths above what would normally be expected in the UK during the coronavirus outbreak, while deaths involving Covid-19 continue to fall.

There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22, compared with the average number of deaths for that period over five years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

 

I guess it could have been 100k if UK had not gone in to lockdown.

 

I do agree that lockdown is not the answer long term.

UK's Professor Lockdown himself, Neil Ferguson, has just gone on record to say that Sweden may have surpressed Covid19 without using the draconian measures used in the UK. Says UK needs to learn from Sweden:

 

"Neil Ferguson whose grim warnings prompted Boris Johnson to order TOTAL LOCKDOWN admits Sweden may have suppressed Covid-19 to the same level but WITHOUT draconian measures"

 

• Professor admitted there is lessons to be learned from Sweden moving forward
• Sweden dodged major crisis without locking down and seeing economy implode

The professor whose grim warning that 500,000 Brits may die from Covid-19 without action triggered lockdown has admitted Sweden may have suppressed its outbreak as well as Britain - without imposing the draconian measures. 

 

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, revealed he had the 'greatest respect' for the Scandinavian nation, which has managed to suffer fewer deaths per capita than the UK. 

 

Professor Ferguson appeared to praise Sweden for keeping infections low without the economically crippling curbs and said 'they have gone quite a long way to [achieving] the same effect'.

 

The UK has a death rate of 575 people per million, while Sweden's is significantly lower at 436 per million. As well as fewer deaths, Sweden's GDP actually grew in the first quarter of 2020, suggesting it might avoid the worst of the economic fallout from the crisis. 

 

Professor Ferguson admitted he was stumped as to why Sweden had recorded just 4,000 Covid deaths when some calculations estimated the country would suffer 90,000 without the measures. 

 

'Lockdown is a very crude policy and what we'd like to do is have a much more targeted approach that does not have the same economic impacts.' 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8379769/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-admits-greatest-respect-Sweden.html

 

Hmmm, what could that be Neil, hmmm, something targeted without the economic impacts, hmmm, could it be.....oh i don't know....maybe testing and isolating the infected? You know like South Korea and Germany have done?

 

This guy is unbelievable. Well, at least he admitted the draconian mandatory lockdown the UK imposed was unnecessary and that Sweden has lessons for all.

 

He also admitted he got it wrong and thought Asia tourists would be the main infection source in the UK, when it was Spain and Italy. It was pointed out to him that in view of the collection of the most vulnerable in one place in care homes, it should have been obvious they should have been protected more. He expressed shock they weren't, when it was his job to advise the government. 

 

Just now, Logosone said:

UK's Professor Lockdown himself, Neil Ferguson, has just gone on record to say that Sweden may have surpressed Covid19 without using the draconian measures used in the UK. Says UK needs to learn from Sweden:

 

"Neil Ferguson whose grim warnings prompted Boris Johnson to order TOTAL LOCKDOWN admits Sweden may have suppressed Covid-19 to the same level but WITHOUT draconian measures"

 

• Professor admitted there is lessons to be learned from Sweden moving forward
• Sweden dodged major crisis without locking down and seeing economy implode

The professor whose grim warning that 500,000 Brits may die from Covid-19 without action triggered lockdown has admitted Sweden may have suppressed its outbreak as well as Britain - without imposing the draconian measures. 

 

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, revealed he had the 'greatest respect' for the Scandinavian nation, which has managed to suffer fewer deaths per capita than the UK. 

 

Professor Ferguson appeared to praise Sweden for keeping infections low without the economically crippling curbs and said 'they have gone quite a long way to [achieving] the same effect'.

 

The UK has a death rate of 575 people per million, while Sweden's is significantly lower at 436 per million. As well as fewer deaths, Sweden's GDP actually grew in the first quarter of 2020, suggesting it might avoid the worst of the economic fallout from the crisis. 

 

Professor Ferguson admitted he was stumped as to why Sweden had recorded just 4,000 Covid deaths when some calculations estimated the country would suffer 90,000 without the measures. 

 

'Lockdown is a very crude policy and what we'd like to do is have a much more targeted approach that does not have the same economic impacts.' 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8379769/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-admits-greatest-respect-Sweden.html

 

Hmmm, what could that be Neil, hmmm, something targeted without the economic impacts, hmmm, could it be.....oh i don't know....maybe testing and isolating the infected? You know like South Korea and Germany have done?

 

This guy is unbelievable. Well, at least he admitted the draconian mandatory lockdown the UK imposed was unnecessary and that Sweden has lessons for all.

 

He also admitted he got it wrong and thought Asia tourists would be the main infection source in the UK, when it was Spain and Italy. It was pointed out to him that in view of the collection of the most vulnerable in one place in care homes, it should have been obvious they should have been protected more. He expressed shock they weren't, when it was his job to advise the government. 

 

No ones got the balls to mention the upside. It thins out overpopulated areas by culling the weak.  Truth is not part of this PC Generation anymore

Do you remember someone on here previously said that Sweden had gained no economic benefit from not going into mandatory lockdown?

 

"Sweden’s first-quarter economic growth surprises as exports rise

 

Gross domestic product figures suggest ‘severe slowdown’ not imminent, say analysts

 

Sweden’s first-quarter growth rate rose by more than expected as exports increased, boosted by a weaker krona, as the Nordic economy appeared to weather international risks such as the escalating US-China conflict over trade.

 

The figures suggest that a “severe slowdown is not imminent”, Andreas Wallstrom, analyst at Swedbank, said in a note. “This is in line with our forecast and we keep our call that the Riksbank will lift its policy rate to 0.00 per cent in December.”

https://www.ft.com/content/d7462856-81d8-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849

 

By comparison, the UK, which imposed mandatory lockdown, shrank by 5.8%.

 

"GDP contracted by 5.8%, coming close in a single month to the entire loss of output during the 2008-09 recession.

 

There is little doubt that worse is to come. The ONS figures show that after the government imposed lockdown on 23 March, output collapsed by roughly a quarter. Surveys of business activity paint a similarly grizzly picture.

 

In a scenario in which lockdown restrictions are only gradually eased from June (as is the case) – broadly as the government plans – Threadneedle Street expects GDP to shrink by 25% in the second quarter, a contraction more than 10 times greater than the worst quarter of the financial crisis. The Bank predicts the economy will shrink by 14% overall in 2020, an impact that ranks alongside that of the Great Frost of 1709."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/13/first-quarter-slump-just-a-foretaste-of-worst-to-come-uk-economy-covid-19

 

So the UK government panicked, imposed heavy mandatory lockdown and the UK economy shrinks by an entire quarter, 25%, in the second quarter of this year.

 

By comparison Sweden sees no contraction at all in the first quarter and looks cool, calm and collected into the future.

 

So much for this guy on here posting that Sweden's decision not to go into mandatory lockdown had no economic benefits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

That's an odd take and inaccurate!

 

Taken from Daily Mail article on ONS figures: 

 

62k excess deaths - ONS 

There have been almost 62,000 deaths above what would normally be expected in the UK during the coronavirus outbreak, while deaths involving Covid-19 continue to fall.

There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22, compared with the average number of deaths for that period over five years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

 

I guess it could have been 100k if UK had not gone in to lockdown.

 

I do agree that lockdown is not the answer long term.

 

The UK, very likely, would have been much worse off.

 

I agree about lockdown, not a long term solution. 

 

Look at the situation in New Zealand in comparison to Sweden with approximately twice the population, similar lifestyles etc. 

 

NZ statistics 

 

Confirmed 1,154 +0

Recovered  1,131

Deaths  22

 

 

Swedens Stats

 

Confirmed 38,589

Recovered  4,971

Deaths  4,468

 

 

Twice the population yet 20x the fatality rate.  Yep, that was the right approach alright.

 

New Zealand went into a prolonged lockdown, 6 weeks beginning March 25. Then to Level 3, now in Level 2. There was an announcement by the Prime Minister today that a move to Level 1 will be announced early next week, possibly Monday.

 

New Zealand has done well on a health perspective. The social and financial impact, as we all know, will be felt for a long time to come. 

 

37 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Do you remember someone on here previously said that Sweden had gained no economic benefit from not going into mandatory lockdown?

 

"Sweden’s first-quarter economic growth surprises as exports rise

 

Gross domestic product figures suggest ‘severe slowdown’ not imminent, say analysts

 

Sweden’s first-quarter growth rate rose by more than expected as exports increased, boosted by a weaker krona, as the Nordic economy appeared to weather international risks such as the escalating US-China conflict over trade.

 

The figures suggest that a “severe slowdown is not imminent”, Andreas Wallstrom, analyst at Swedbank, said in a note. “This is in line with our forecast and we keep our call that the Riksbank will lift its policy rate to 0.00 per cent in December.”

https://www.ft.com/content/d7462856-81d8-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849

 

By comparison, the UK, which imposed mandatory lockdown, shrank by 5.8%.

 

"GDP contracted by 5.8%, coming close in a single month to the entire loss of output during the 2008-09 recession.

 

There is little doubt that worse is to come. The ONS figures show that after the government imposed lockdown on 23 March, output collapsed by roughly a quarter. Surveys of business activity paint a similarly grizzly picture.

 

In a scenario in which lockdown restrictions are only gradually eased from June (as is the case) – broadly as the government plans – Threadneedle Street expects GDP to shrink by 25% in the second quarter, a contraction more than 10 times greater than the worst quarter of the financial crisis. The Bank predicts the economy will shrink by 14% overall in 2020, an impact that ranks alongside that of the Great Frost of 1709."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/13/first-quarter-slump-just-a-foretaste-of-worst-to-come-uk-economy-covid-19

 

So the UK government panicked, imposed heavy mandatory lockdown and the UK economy shrinks by an entire quarter, 25%, in the second quarter of this year.

 

By comparison Sweden sees no contraction at all in the first quarter and looks cool, calm and collected into the future.

 

So much for this guy on here posting that Sweden's decision not to go into mandatory lockdown had no economic benefits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nobody is disagreeing with the facts, just your particularly gloating take.

 

I'm afraid if your country has a mega city, covid19 is likely to hit hard.  If we look at Norwich, UK we see very little infection rather as in Sweden. There's nothing magic here; it's about population densities.

 

 

I see the   foolish claim in respect to the Swedish economy. Perhaps we are to be taken  for fools who do not understand what Q1 means. For the ignorant, it refers to January, February and March. As of march 31, much of North America and Europe was only starting lockdowns towards the end of March. For example As of 31 march, only 32 of 50 US states were in "lockdown";  The UK lockdown phased in March 23-30.  Why would the  Q1 results  be negative if the Covid19 economic crisis was only starting?

 

It is the Q2 numbers that matter. To help the intellectually challenged, Q2 will include April, May and June and it will come as no surprise that financial results will be grim, even in Sweden.

 

Apparently we are to believe that all will be well. Someone had better inform 

Sweden's finance minister Magdalena Andersson because her most recent statement is 

that the Swedish economy will shrink 7% this year.

At the  same time, Sweden's debt office posted its highest  borrowing level with an increase to cover emergency spending amid record job losses.

One cannot expect an export driven economy to post   good results in Q2 when its largest exporters have cut jobs and its exports have disappeared.

 

It is hard to believe that such foolish people circulate, but they exist as  some of the posts demonstrate. The sad aspect is that they become very angry and aggressive when  people do not accept their incorrect conclusions and mangled  interpretations.

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, drgoon said:

 

The UK, very likely, would have been much worse off.

 

I agree about lockdown, not a long term solution. 

 

Look at the situation in New Zealand in comparison to Sweden with approximately twice the population, similar lifestyles etc. 

 

NZ statistics 

 

Confirmed 1,154 +0

Recovered  1,131

Deaths  22

 

 

Swedens Stats

 

Confirmed 38,589

Recovered  4,971

Deaths  4,468

 

 

Twice the population yet 20x the fatality rate.  Yep, that was the right approach alright.

 

New Zealand went into a prolonged lockdown, 6 weeks beginning March 25. Then to Level 3, now in Level 2. There was an announcement by the Prime Minister today that a move to Level 1 will be announced early next week, possibly Monday.

 

New Zealand has done well on a health perspective. The social and financial impact, as we all know, will be felt for a long time to come. 

 

New Zealand was a different case. No skiing tourists from Austria, no tourists from Spain or Italy. 

 

NZ is an island nation that can easily close its borders. No chinese tourists. 

 

And more importantly NZ started testing and isolating the infected on a grand scale. 

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

 

I'm afraid if your country has a mega city, covid19 is likely to hit hard.  If we look at Norwich, UK we see very little infection rather as in Sweden. There's nothing magic here; it's about population densities.

 

 

That statement is problematic because the Northwest of England was affected twice as badly as London.

 

Some of the most heavily and densely populated cities in Germany were less affected than Heinsberg.

 

Population density is a factor. But it is not the only one.

 

The reason why the UK was hit so hard was because it reacted so late. It reacted so late because Public Health England said 'not enough test kits available' and the UK's scientific advisers just accepted this instead of seeking out private companies that were offering to produce tests kits.

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

New Zealand was a different case. No skiing tourists from Austria, no tourists from Spain or Italy. 

 

NZ is an island nation that can easily close its borders. No chinese tourists. 

 

And more importantly NZ started testing and isolating the infected on a grand scale. 

Someone obviously is clueless  on the subject of New Zealand tourism. Let's fact check;

 

1. Peak tourism season in New Zealand is  December to February. Hundreds of thousands of tourists from China, Europe and North America had already visited New Zealand prior to the cessation of international travel. Let's look at the arrivals  in January 2020.

New Zealand Tourist Arrivals Rise Above Consensus

Overseas visitor arrivals in New Zealand increased by 11,432 or 2.9 percent year-on-year to 410,432 in January of 2020, beating market expectations of a 0.7 percent gain. Growth was driven by increases in arrivals from China as the 2020 Chinese New Year started in late January before any travel ban (+6,458), Australia (+4,479), the US (+2,508) and Hong Kong (+2,000). In contrast, visitors declined from Germany (-1,400), the UK (-1,100) and Argentina (-1,000). Arrivals for the year ended January of 2020 were 3.9 million, up 16,570 from the year ended January of 2019. 

 Chinese tourists represent in excess of 12% of the  tourist arrivals.  In January alone it is reasonable to expect that no less than 45,000 Chinese visitors arrived if not more because of the increased interest.

They were arriving in December 2019 and were still arriving up until mid February. That is good for at least another 60,000.  So much for the statement of "no Chinese"

 

Several thousand Italians had visited  New Zealand prior to the  isolation requirements announced in early March. In fact, it was the  arrival of 15 italians on March 3, that caused an expedited introduction of the isolation measure.  Again so much for the claim of no visitors from italy.

 

2. Closing Borders did not help many countries because it was their own people who brought back the infections.  This is what happened in Canada, Australia, and Russia.  Austria was an epicenter of infection in Europe infecting many visitors from the UK, Germany and France. How the infections arrived in new Zealand has not been determined conclusively.

 

3. If testing was as decisive as claimed, then why are there different outcomes for a country with minimal testing like Taiwan with 3 tests per 1000, and South Korea at 15/1000

vs. a country with a high rate of testing like Russia  at 75/1000 or Italy at 65/1000

 

New Zealand has a testing rate in the same range as Australia and Spain. The takeaway is that New Zealand's testing rate wasn't the deciding factor. And its testing rate can hardly be called "grand". 

 

As for isolating the infected on a grand scale, New Zealand din't forcibly isolate people. It requested the cooperation of the public to limit activity outside the home. Compared to the USA or Sweden, yes it is extensive, but Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and others had similar policies. It is called social distancing and lockdown.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

I see the   foolish claim in respect to the Swedish economy. Perhaps we are to be taken  for fools who do not understand what Q1 means. For the ignorant, it refers to January, February and March. As of march 31, much of North America and Europe was only starting lockdowns towards the end of March. For example As of 31 march, only 32 of 50 US states were in "lockdown";  The UK lockdown phased in March 23-30.  Why would the  Q1 results  be negative if the Covid19 economic crisis was only starting?

 

It is the Q2 numbers that matter. To help the intellectually challenged, Q2 will include April, May and June and it will come as no surprise that financial results will be grim, even in Sweden.

 

Apparently we are to believe that all will be well. Someone had better inform 

Sweden's finance minister Magdalena Andersson because her most recent statement is 

that the Swedish economy will shrink 7% this year.

At the  same time, Sweden's debt office posted its highest  borrowing level with an increase to cover emergency spending amid record job losses.

One cannot expect an export driven economy to post   good results in Q2 when its largest exporters have cut jobs and its exports have disappeared.

 

It is hard to believe that such foolish people circulate, but they exist as  some of the posts demonstrate. The sad aspect is that they become very angry and aggressive when  people do not accept their incorrect conclusions and mangled  interpretations.

You forget Q3 and Q4. In case you haven't heard yet, Q3 is July, August, September and Q4 is October, November and December. The lockdown effects will be even more clear looking at them.

Nevertheless, and as said here already many times, a heavily export oriented country such as Sweden will suffer heavily from the economic meltdown in the lockdown countries. Nobody is denying that. However you use that now to claim that the no lockdown policy of Sweden has no positive effect on Sweden's economy, and that is simply wrong.

 

Sweden's exports will of course suffer from the economic lockdown disaster in the lockdown countries, but at least the countless small businesses serving the local population, which are not locked down there, are still alive and well, and that has a very positive effect on Sweden's economy, minimizing the damage, minimizing the suffering.
 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8381847/Now-know-coronavirus-not-random-killer-one-size-fits-lockdown-come-end.html

 

 

This infographic, which appears sound, provides a clue as to how the UK, and possibly many other countries including Sweden, might proceed to completely open its economy quickly, and achieve herd immunity, whilst providing a comprehensive shield to the most vulnerable throughout the course of the pandemic.

 

It would undoubtedly require all nursing homes to go in to a strict lockdown, and probably most households where there are elderly or vulnerable residents. 

 

 

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

I see the   foolish claim in respect to the Swedish economy. Perhaps we are to be taken  for fools who do not understand what Q1 means. For the ignorant, it refers to January, February and March. As of march 31, much of North America and Europe was only starting lockdowns towards the end of March. For example As of 31 march, only 32 of 50 US states were in "lockdown";  The UK lockdown phased in March 23-30.  Why would the  Q1 results  be negative if the Covid19 economic crisis was only starting?

 

It is the Q2 numbers that matter. To help the intellectually challenged, Q2 will include April, May and June and it will come as no surprise that financial results will be grim, even in Sweden.

 

Apparently we are to believe that all will be well. Someone had better inform 

Sweden's finance minister Magdalena Andersson because her most recent statement is 

that the Swedish economy will shrink 7% this year.

At the  same time, Sweden's debt office posted its highest  borrowing level with an increase to cover emergency spending amid record job losses.

One cannot expect an export driven economy to post   good results in Q2 when its largest exporters have cut jobs and its exports have disappeared.

 

It is hard to believe that such foolish people circulate, but they exist as  some of the posts demonstrate. The sad aspect is that they become very angry and aggressive when  people do not accept their incorrect conclusions and mangled  interpretations.

 

 

 

 

 

They are comparing GDP numbers from the first quarter to those from other nations. The fact that Sweden is faring far better certainly is not meaningless, as your post seems to imply. 

 

It is so blatantly obvious what is going on right now psychologically all over the world. People don't want to think that Sweden has been successful. It would be like if your college roommate partied all night before the test, and you studied all week... you would not accept that he did better than you on the test. You would do anything in your power to make sure it was either untrue or something unfair happened. The truth is, your roommate was just plain smarter and more intelligent than you. Your efforts and dedication meant nothing because they were somehow not as well guided. 

 

Same thing here. Nobody can accept that what Sweden did is producing the same results as severe lockdowns have in other countries. Opinions on the matter are obviously biased, and it is evident why that is.

 

 

The designer of the Swedish anti corona model has just gone on Swedish radio to admit his ideas were wrong, and that too many Swedish people have died.

Since we now know the answer to the question of the OP, I suggest we close this thread.

 

Source: Belgian public TV:  https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/06/03/zweedse-marc-van-ranst-maakt-een-bocht-vandaag-zou-onze-aanpak/

 

 

 

57 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

The designer of the Swedish anti corona model has just gone on Swedish radio to admit his ideas were wrong, and that too many Swedish people have died.

Since we now know the answer to the question of the OP, I suggest we close this thread.

 

Source: Belgian public TV:  https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/06/03/zweedse-marc-van-ranst-maakt-een-bocht-vandaag-zou-onze-aanpak/

 

Tegnell has not yet found an answer to what measures Sweden should have taken. "All other countries have introduced many things at the same time, so you have the problem that you don't know which measure had the best effect. Maybe we will find out now that the rules are being unloaded one by one."

4 hours ago, mommysboy said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8381847/Now-know-coronavirus-not-random-killer-one-size-fits-lockdown-come-end.html

 

 

This infographic, which appears sound, provides a clue as to how the UK, and possibly many other countries including Sweden, might proceed to completely open its economy quickly, and achieve herd immunity, whilst providing a comprehensive shield to the most vulnerable throughout the course of the pandemic.

 

It would undoubtedly require all nursing homes to go in to a strict lockdown, and probably most households where there are elderly or vulnerable residents. 

 

 

I fear that mandatory lockdowns, now that the precedent has been set, are here to stay.

 

In the sense that we may have been lucky that this SARS Cov2 was not highly lethal, but of course with 5000 coronaviruses in bats the odds are that another MERS like virus will come that is much more lethal.

 

If there is another pandemic, a more lethal virus, we will of course see the return of lockdowns worldwide.

 

 

4 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

They are comparing GDP numbers from the first quarter to those from other nations. The fact that Sweden is faring far better certainly is not meaningless, as your post seems to imply. 

 

It is so blatantly obvious what is going on right now psychologically all over the world. People don't want to think that Sweden has been successful. It would be like if your college roommate partied all night before the test, and you studied all week... you would not accept that he did better than you on the test. You would do anything in your power to make sure it was either untrue or something unfair happened. The truth is, your roommate was just plain smarter and more intelligent than you. Your efforts and dedication meant nothing because they were somehow not as well guided. 

 

Same thing here. Nobody can accept that what Sweden did is producing the same results as severe lockdowns have in other countries. Opinions on the matter are obviously biased, and it is evident why that is.

The comparison is indeed meaningless  when used to justify the Swedish position of minimal lockdown. The Q1 results were used to justify the Swedish strategy. The point was that the Q1 results cannot be used because the Swedish strategy wasn't in effect at the time. None of the countries had the measures in full effect. Whatever the economic results were/are, they are due to factors unrelated to Covid19 control measures. The USA and UK  Q1 numbers will be robust as well. So what? None of it matters because the Covid19 control measures were not in place,

 

One might as well have used Q1 2019 values because they too had no relationship to an economy  impacted by  Covid19. How stupid do you think people are? Do you really  believe people are so intellectually stunted as to accept a statement using values which have absolutely nothing to do with the  condition referenced?  If you were comparing the impact, you need to look at the period that had the Covid19 measures vs, the prior periods, and you need to put it into context by showing peer economy comparisons such as Denmark, Norway,.

 

Oh wow. The know it all self proclaimed experts will be going into spin overdrive to try and 'splain this away  ????

The architect of Sweden’s controversial lighter lockdown policy for dealing with coronavirus has for the first time conceded the Scandinavian country should have imposed more restrictions to avoid having such a high death toll. 

 https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

 

The thousands of dead bodies couldn't support the position. In the coming weeks, new studies will be released to support the original observations that SARS Cov-2 infection damages the lungs and causes inflammation of the circulatory system resulting in blood clotting which in turn results in damaged organs, strokes and heart attacks. The assumption that "mild infections" were nothing to  be concerned  about, will soon be turned on its head.

 

Key guideline of public health is to err on the side of caution.

20 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

The point was that the Q1 results cannot be used because the Swedish strategy wasn't in effect at the time. None of the countries had the measures in full effect. Whatever the economic results were/are, they are due to factors unrelated to Covid19 control measures. The USA and UK  Q1 numbers will be robust as well.

The UK economy shrank at the fastest monthly pace on record in March as the coronavirus lockdown triggered a crash in activity and demand.  UK gross domestic product fell 5.8 per cent in March compared with the previous month, the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997, according to first estimates by the Office for National Statistics. In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

You never get anything right, do you?

Just now, geriatrickid said:

Oh wow. The know it all self proclaimed experts will be going into spin overdrive to try and 'splain this away  ????

The architect of Sweden’s controversial lighter lockdown policy for dealing with coronavirus has for the first time conceded the Scandinavian country should have imposed more restrictions to avoid having such a high death toll. 

 https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

 

The thousands of dead bodies couldn't support the position. In the coming weeks, new studies will be released to support the original observations that SARS Cov-2 infection damages the lungs and causes inflammation of the circulatory system resulting in blood clotting which in turn results in damaged organs, strokes and heart attacks. The assumption that "mild infections" were nothing to  be concerned  about, will soon be turned on its head.

 

Key guideline of public health is to err on the side of caution.

Yes, nearly everyone has cocked it up to some extent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but this is a new virus. The best thing that can happen now is for all the best scientists to form their own global NGO, with a responsible chair and funded by rich but non-interfering donors. Then they can analyse and process all the dat, then offer advice to all governments for free. The WHO has plenty of very smart people but the management has been poor and it has not served the world well in this case.

 

The first bit of advice might well be to request that the G20 step up and impress on China the importance of containing its own germs!

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The UK economy shrank at the fastest monthly pace on record in March as the coronavirus lockdown triggered a crash in activity and demand.  UK gross domestic product fell 5.8 per cent in March compared with the previous month, the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997, according to first estimates by the Office for National Statistics. In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

You never get anything right, do you?

Now you're going from quarters to months. Parameter shift alert! Parameter shift alert!

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The UK economy shrank at the fastest monthly pace on record in March as the coronavirus lockdown triggered a crash in activity and demand.  UK gross domestic product fell 5.8 per cent in March compared with the previous month, the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997, according to first estimates by the Office for National Statistics. In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

You never get anything right, do you?

On the contrary, I have  it right because I know how to make a reliable comparison. You are now taking the data from March and trying to link it to Swedish results for Q1.  You obviously do not know how to effect an accurate comparison. In this case you have again taken data out of context and are comparing two data sets that are not comparable;

- Q1 is Jan, Feb. and March.

- March is only one month

-  UK lockdown measures were announced March 23 and were in place by March 31.

 

The  UK Q1 2020 values are a carryover of the trend from 2019. As per the UK government data

Q1 2019 - 0.6+;  Q2 2019 - (0.1)- ; Q3 2019 - 0.5+ ; Q4 2019 -0.0

 

The UK had flat results at the end of 2019. The UK reported that GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to February 2020.  What this means is that the UK economy was doing well until the end of February. You are confusing the impact of Covid19 on economic activity in general with the direct impact of the lockdown.

 

No one disputes that the  data for the end of march in the UK will be bad. No one disputes that  the lockdown  has negatively impacted the economy. However, you are making an incorrect claim that the  change in Q1 values in the UK is due to the lockdown.  I am stating  that this is impossible because the lockdown was not in effect until the last week of March. The lockdown impact cannot be backdated.

 

Your entire argument requires that there was a lockdown in effect. How many times does it need to be stated that the lockdown  impact only started to be seen at the very end of March. Any negative activity prior to that time has absolutely nothing to do with the lockdown. 

 

5 hours ago, oldhippy said:

The designer of the Swedish anti corona model has just gone on Swedish radio to admit his ideas were wrong, and that too many Swedish people have died.

Since we now know the answer to the question of the OP, I suggest we close this thread.

 

Source: Belgian public TV:  https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/06/03/zweedse-marc-van-ranst-maakt-een-bocht-vandaag-zou-onze-aanpak/

Well not so fast. It speaks for Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, that he is reviewing what has happened and tries to learn from it. It would be very good if more scientists would do that. Even for you it would be a good idea.

To do justice to Anders Tegnell we should give the complete story of what he said. It ends more like this:
 

Quote

But in an interview in Stockholm on Wednesday, Tegnell said he has no regrets, and is “still confident” that Sweden’s strategy “is working, in broad terms. But like any strategy, it needs to be adapted all the time.”

The Strategy
 

Tegnell is the mastermind behind Sweden’s controversial approach to fighting the virus, and the government has deferred to him in its handling of the pandemic. Gatherings of more than 50 people continue to be banned, but throughout the crisis Swedes have been able to visit restaurants, go shopping, attend gyms and send children under 16 to school.

 

Tegnell says he thinks it’s now clear that closing primary schools was unnecessary, which he considers a key takeaway from the crisis.
 

But at 44 deaths per 100,000, Sweden’s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds rates in neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns early on. Like elsewhere, the virus hit Sweden’s oldest citizens hardest.
 

“We could have been better at protecting our care facilities. We could probably have tested a bit more than we did in the very beginning,” Tegnell said. More controversially, he rejects face masks as a useful protection against the virus. The evidence on face masks is “extremely vague,” he said.

Universal Health Care
 

Crucial to the success of Sweden’s approach is its universal health-care system, Tegnell said. “It makes a huge difference.” Despite Sweden’s high mortality rate, its hospitals have at no point been overwhelmed, and a field hospital erected at a convention center in the capital has gone unused.

Ultimately, handling a crisis like Covid-19 requires regular adjustment if a country is to succeed in fighting it back, Tegnell said.
 

“There are always improvements that can be made,” he said. “Anybody who has been working with Covid-19 would say the same thing. Because if you don’t improve with what you learn, you will never improve.”

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/sweden-won-t-abandon-covid-strategy-despite-admitting-to-errors

Remarkable for me is "Tegnell says he thinks it’s now clear that closing primary schools was unnecessary, which he considers a key takeaway from the crisis." and also "We could have been better at protecting our care facilities".

 

7 hours ago, nauseus said:

Now you're going from quarters to months. Parameter shift alert! Parameter shift alert!

Not at all. It says right there:

 

"In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis."

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

Plus of course gerikid was claiming you can't count the first quarter (ie March) at all. Yet the FT makes clear that already in March the UK GDP fell by 5.8 per cent, with much worse to come. All due to lockdown.

6 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

...in the three months to February 2020. 

 

It's getting terrible, gerikid, now you can't count from one to three? You can't make it up.

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

It's getting terrible, gerikid, now you can't count from one to three? You can't make it up.

 

Yes, I can count. And no, none of it is made up, unlike your claims.  The MoF releases its comparative data on a rolling 3 month basis.   The exact reference is as follows;

1.UK GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to February 2020

Figure 1: GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to February 2020, following no growth in the three months to January 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2020

 

If you have a complaint  with how data is compiled take it up with James Scruton who is responsible for the statistical bulletin. Go and tell him that he cannot count and that the educated professionals at the MoF are wrong.

 

 

Meanwhile as per the  subject of this thread, Sweden admits that it has erred.

3 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Yes, I can count.

Then why did you say

 

Quote

in the three months to February 2020.

We were discussing Quarter 1.

 

From your own link: Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

 

From Jan to Feb is not 3 months, gerikid.

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Not at all. It says right there:

 

"In the first quarter, UK GDP fell 2 per cent compared with the previous quarter, its largest drop since the financial crisis."

 

https://www.ft.com/content/64ec173c-d397-43b7-a5f9-8b511a0f5204

 

Plus of course gerikid was claiming you can't count the first quarter (ie March) at all. Yet the FT makes clear that already in March the UK GDP fell by 5.8 per cent, with much worse to come. All due to lockdown.

How can it be due to lockdown if there was no lockdown?

The UK initiated the lockdown on March 23, and it was implemented by March 31.

Why do you insist that there was a lockdown, when there was no lockdown?

 

Is this all some sort of farce intended to irritate people? Who in their right mind would keep insisting the UK was in lockdown, when everyone knows the announced start of the  shutdown was March 23.