Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Pattaya46 said:

Uh? Maybe it's not the correct word, but I used "create" the same way as in "Nature created life" or "Nature created all species on Earth". Human was not needed for all that. (Human is just one of created species)

Right.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

That was certainly part of it, the other was that when the writing was on the wall many Chinese, rightly, assumed being in a locked down city might not be a great idea and just left.

 

"The mayor of Wuhan, China, said about five million people left the city before it was placed on lockdown last week to slow the spread of coronavirus."

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1?r=DE&IR=T

 

Yes, they were all going to home or on holiday anyway. Quite convenient really. 

[MikeyIdea]

9 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Did China have a lockdown where the population was locked down in their homes/rooms?
Wasn't it only that they locked the region, Wuhan, no travel in and out?

If indeed so then China proves that the 'shelter in home' draconian lockdown was not needed. As the US / UK / Belgium numbers also show, despite draconian lockdowns, it did not get them to lower numbers than China, not even the same.

China had very, very strict lockdowns in nearly the whole country. Many Chinese weren't allowed out at all, not even to buy food and necessities. China organized food patrols which delivered food instead and online deliveries skyrocketed. 

 

Europe was nothing compared to how strictly it was implemented in China. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[utalkin2me]

3 hours ago, chessman said:

High numbers of worldwide flu deaths are calculated with models that look at all-cause mortality, that is why the figures are often given as a range.

 

Covid deaths are calculated by doctors making decisions on cause of death, almost always with a Positive test. You can question this all you want but analysis of all-cause mortality suggest that these deaths are actually being undercounted. 
 

if your seriously think that the data is so incomplete that you don’t have an opinion on whether Covid is worse than the flu, I would suggest your anger over the economic issues is blinding you about the Public health crisis.

 

in Italy, for example, they have had 100s of doctors die after catching Covid. They have had hospitals, in their busiest time,  where hundreds and hundreds of nurses and other staff were on sick leave after showing symptoms. Is this normal for flu?
 

when the dust settles, the picture will be immensely complicated and I would imagine your simplistic reading of economic catastrophe caused by government over-reaction will be mainly made by a small group of right wing loudmouths. What governments in Europe will have to answer for will be their lack of serious preparation in January and February, the fact that they did too little and they did it too late.

There are about 4,000 flu deaths in Sweden every year. 

 

Guess how many people have died of coronavirus in Sweden..... 4,700. And rapidly slowing. Michael Levitt has mentioned he does not think that number will go past 6,000. 

 

So yes, it is perfectly comparable to the flu. Just because the world has overreacted does not make your statements true.

 

It is slightly worse than the flu. Do what you want with the info, but those are the facts. It is a very bad and unusual flu season. Nothing more. The behavior is different, but the death numbers are not. In fact, if you look at "years lost" in lives instead of all lives being equal, i bet it is not even close, flu would be much much worse. A 40 year old dying of the flu is not really the same as an 80 year old dying of covid, but we count them as equal (ie 1 death). 

 

So step back, take a deep breath, realize the entire world overreacted, and relish in the fact that this is not that bad. The bad part has been our reaction to it. 

[chessman]

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

There are about 4,000 flu deaths in Sweden every year. 

That would be news to the Swedish health authorities that report much lower figures.

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

There are about 4,000 flu deaths in Sweden every year. 

 

Guess how many people have died of coronavirus in Sweden..... 4,700. And rapidly slowing. Michael Levitt has mentioned he does not think that number will go past 6,000. 

 

So yes, it is perfectly comparable to the flu. Just because the world has overreacted does not make your statements true.

 

It is slightly worse than the flu. Do what you want with the info, but those are the facts. It is a very bad and unusual flu season. Nothing more. The behavior is different, but the death numbers are not. In fact, if you look at "years lost" in lives instead of all lives being equal, i bet it is not even close, flu would be much much worse. A 40 year old dying of the flu is not really the same as an 80 year old dying of covid, but we count them as equal (ie 1 death). 

 

So step back, take a deep breath, realize the entire world overreacted, and relish in the fact that this is not that bad. The bad part has been our reaction to it. 

 

Rapidly slowing? Not really.

 

And with new cases increasing again then most people know what that means in 2-4 weeks.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[mommysboy]

There's a news report doing the rounds about satellite analysis on how busy hospitals were in Wuhan, China last year.  It indicates that the outbreak actually began in the fall of last year.  It bears the Harvard name and appears legit.  I haven't posted a link yet as I can't be absolutely sure of authenticity, but it's certainly been reported in the Guardian UK Coronavirus live section.  Analysis of search terms on Baidu also corroborates the above.  

 

Further, note that Astrazeneca, a British/Swedish outfit appear close to a therapeutic cure (different from its proposed vaccine) based on convalescent therapy.  Maybe, this is the reason why both these countries appear rather blithe to the dangers of covid19.

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Rapidly slowing? Not really.

 

And with new cases increasing again then most people know what that means in 2-4 weeks.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

Based on the graph above it appears to be increasing.

 

The UK ONS has reported 50,000 excess deaths thought to be connected to Covid19.

 

Each country has its own demographics I guess.  Certainly the UK has a lot of old and frequently overweight older people, as well as obesity in the general population, as well as a significant proportion of Black, Asian or minority people.

[Logosone]

Yah, it's a real blood bath in Sweden.

 

"Preliminary data from Statistics Sweden showed the country registered 1,524 deaths last week, slightly lower than the average for 2015-2019, which was 1,569 deaths."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-8399259/Sweden-records-week-no-excess-mortality-pandemic-struck.html

 

So actually less deaths than the average from 2015 to 2019.

[yuyiinthesky]

5 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Rapidly slowing? Not really.

 

And with new cases increasing again then most people know what that means in 2-4 weeks.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

We know by now that new cases are a function of testing. You get the numbers you want by testing more or less.

 

I think that in general and especially in Sweden higher numbers are good, every new case is in about 2 weeks another immune block between the virus and the elderly, the vulnerable.

 

New staff of the care facilities for the elderly should be recruited preferably from the ones having had a previous positive test, after their recovery. So the more, the better.

 

 

[transam]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yah, it's a real blood bath in Sweden.

 

"Preliminary data from Statistics Sweden showed the country registered 1,524 deaths last week, slightly lower than the average for 2015-2019, which was 1,569 deaths."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-8399259/Sweden-records-week-no-excess-mortality-pandemic-struck.html

 

So actually less deaths than the average from 2015 to 2019.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mood-darkens-sweden-pm-lofven-100028604.html

[mommysboy]

29 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

We know by now that new cases are a function of testing. You get the numbers you want by testing more or less.

 

I think that in general and especially in Sweden higher numbers are good, every new case is in about 2 weeks another immune block between the virus and the elderly, the vulnerable.

 

New staff of the care facilities for the elderly should be recruited preferably from the ones having had a previous positive test, after their recovery. So the more, the better.

 

 

It's no secret that the UK wanted initially to go the same way as Sweden, but the situation rapidly became quite frightening.  It was clearly not working.  

 

The way to go is to protect the elderly and vulnerable.  Looking back if UK had done this then there would have been no need for a lockdown, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

But it's still a bit of a headscratcher why Sweden's excess deaths appear much lower.  I guess it's a combination of lower population densities and common sense behaviour.  UK has always had a booze culture, which is not to be overlooked I think.

[utalkin2me]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

It's no secret that the UK wanted initially to go the same way as Sweden, but the situation rapidly became quite frightening.  It was clearly not working.  

 

The way to go is to protect the elderly and vulnerable.  Looking back if UK had done this then there would have been no need for a lockdown, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

But it's still a bit of a headscratcher why Sweden's excess deaths appear much lower.  I guess it's a combination of lower population densities and common sense behaviour.  UK has always had a booze culture, which is not to be overlooked I think.

Hindsight? There were plenty of top scientists begging them to go for a herd immunity approach, and then the Imperial College paper came out. Michael Levitt had already predicted the numbers in China. He was right on the money. Why did nobody ask him what he thought? It is not about hindsight but fear, politics and censorship of opinions that don't go over well. 

 

An Italian doctor just said "the coronavirus does not exist clinically in Italy". I don't know exactly what that means in doctor speak, but it does not sound very ominous. 

 

Anyway, the only point I wanted to make to you was this entire fiasco was completely unavoidable. Many told us as much. But, it turns out we basically only listen to morons. There is a good video on youtube where Michael Levitt says he emailed Neil Fergueson and told him that his death percentage figures were WAY of (by about ten times) based on his study of the Diamond Princess numbers. Fergueson ignored him, and even told him he was wrong.

 

Levitt has been EXACTLY, EXACTLY (can't be overstated) right on the money in his predictions through this entire thing. Obviously one of THE people we should listen to going forward. Will we? He can hardly get a 30 second segment on the news... so he is forced to show up on youtube channels that nobody watches.  

 

Being right does not mean anything anymore. In fact, if you are right all along, you are shunned. So, being right actually hurts you, eg Michael Levitt and Peter Hitchens. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by utalkin2me

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

We know by now that new cases are a function of testing. You get the numbers you want by testing more or less.

 

I think that in general and especially in Sweden higher numbers are good, every new case is in about 2 weeks another immune block between the virus and the elderly, the vulnerable.

 

New staff of the care facilities for the elderly should be recruited preferably from the ones having had a previous positive test, after their recovery. So the more, the better.

 

 

We'll see in a month how wonderful this news is. 

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Hindsight? There were plenty of top scientists begging them to go for a herd immunity approach, and then the Imperial College paper came out. Michael Levitt had already predicted the numbers in China. He was right on the money. Why did nobody ask him what he thought? It is not about hindsight but fear, politics and censorship of opinions that don't go over well. 

 

An Italian doctor just said "the coronavirus does not exist clinically in Italy". I don't know exactly what that means in doctor speak, but it does not sound very ominous. 

 

Thank god for Imperial college, finally got the UK to change their herd immunity approach which would have lead to another Italy with overwhelmed hospitals and far more deaths than now. 

[utalkin2me]

13 hours ago, chessman said:

That would be news to the Swedish health authorities that report much lower figures.

Look at a larger sample size, the answers are all there for you. 

 

Flu global annual estimated deaths (high end quoted from a study): 650,000

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/seasonal-influenza/burden-of-influenza

 

Current covid death count: 408,000

 

Not comparable. Go pound sand. You are wrong.

 

Once again, just because the world overreacted about 1000 times too much does not support your argument in any way. Those are the numbers. 

[utalkin2me]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thank god for Imperial college, finally got the UK to change their herd immunity approach which would have lead to another Italy with overwhelmed hospitals and far more deaths than now. 

It is not only interesting to note, but very telling, that you support and approve of a person who was wrong by a factor or 10. 

 

not 10%, not 20%.... he was so wrong he is a joke. And he is your hero.

 

You are the equivalent of a modern day flat earther. 

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

 

You are the equivalent of a modern day flat earther. 

No I can see a curve on the horizon. Giving credit to an Italian doctor who said "the coronavirus does not exist clinically in Italy" well that could indeed be a modern day flat earther.

[ravip]

On 5/16/2020 at 1:28 PM, Bob A Kneale said:

What did Sweden do?

Sweden is famously one of the few countries to have opted against a lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/20200517-sweden-s-covid-19-strategy-has-caused-an-amplification-of-the-epidemic

[utalkin2me]

10 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Rapidly slowing? Not really.

 

And with new cases increasing again then most people know what that means in 2-4 weeks.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

That is convenient, as usual. I am talking about deaths, and you put a figure up about cases. 

 

Doctors have been noting case loads are not as they were initially. Meaning even infected have much less of the virus now. You cannot compare a case today to a case two months ago, there is a big difference. There is a natural tapering of this virus, lockdowns have little effect. Once again, go listen to the only guy who has been right with his numbers, Michael Levitt. And Go ahead and learn this for yourself in "2-4 weeks". I am glad I could have been of some service to your knowledge base and understanding of such a complex system. 

 

Deaths is the only figure to look at. I wonder why you would pull up cases? Oh, because it gives you a hope and a prayer of your argument having a chance? 

Edited June 9, 2020 by utalkin2me

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

We know by now that new cases are a function of testing. You get the numbers you want by testing more or less.

 

I think that in general and especially in Sweden higher numbers are good, every new case is in about 2 weeks another immune block between the virus and the elderly, the vulnerable.

 

New staff of the care facilities for the elderly should be recruited preferably from the ones having had a previous positive test, after their recovery. So the more, the better.

 

 

Exactly, Sweden was testing very little. The fact that they now register more cases just means that testing is kicking into gear. Good news for Sweden.

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

That is convenient, as usual. I am talking about deaths, and you put a figure up about cases. 

 

Doctors have been noting case loads are not as they were initially. Meaning even infected have much less of the virus now. You cannot compare a case today to a case two months ago, there is a big difference. There is a natural tapering of this virus, lockdowns have little effect. Once again, go listen to the only guy who has been right with his numbers, Michael Levitt. And Go ahead and learn this for yourself in "2-4 weeks". I am glad I could have been of some service to your knowledge base and understanding of such a complex system. 

 

Deaths is the only figure to look at. I wonder why you would pull up cases? Oh, because it gives you a hope and a prayer of your argument having a chance? 

Yes I saw this death chart. My point was that this spike in new cases is likely to produce a similar spike in deaths in a few weeks. Or is that fact too inconvenient for you?

[utalkin2me]

I have a hypothetical question that I think on its own squashes any "lockdown supporters'" arguments on its own...

 

If we do get a resurgence of the virus in a few months after everyone unlocks, do we lock it all back down again?

 

You see, you can't win. Your position is so flawed, you literally cannot win no matter what your answer is. 

 

That is how you know you find yourself on the wrong side of an argument. 

[utalkin2me]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Yes I saw this death chart. My point was that this spike in new cases is likely to produce a similar spike in deaths in a few weeks. Or is that fact too inconvenient for you?

I just explained that to you man. Really? A single case today does not have the same potency as months ago. 

 

Ok.... an average case two months ago had eg "2 million units" of the virus. 

 

And average case today has eg 10,000 units of the virus. 

 

Today, the virus is much less deadly it has less ability to be spread. THIS is why you see very consistent curves no matter what the country did, that means high initial rate and a very predictable slowdown. 

 

I am telling you man go listen to some Michael Levitt, it will all clear right up. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by utalkin2me

[utalkin2me]

The other thing I wonder, as I stated, if all the scientists you admire on this topic are so wrong they are an embarrassment, where do you think that leaves you? 

 

On the other hand, if the people who you are arguing with are quoting scientists who have been consistently right the entire time, this does not make you double take? 

 

Well, it should. Look at the predictions, then look at what is actually happening. All the answers are right there for everyone. In other words, Neil Fergueson and all who support his work on this topic are in the dark ages. 

[nauseus]

22 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

I just explained that to you man. Really?

 

Ok.... an average case two months ago had eg "2 million units" of the virus. 

 

And average case today has eg 10,000 units of the virus. 

 

Today, the virus is much less deadly it has less ability to be spread. THIS is why you see very consistent curves no matter what the country did, that means high initial rate and a very predictable slowdown. 

 

I am telling you man go listen to some Michael Levitt, it will all clear right up. 

Has he got a new album out?

 

This just up on the Beeb. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523

 

Who to believe? No pun intended.

Edited June 9, 2020 by nauseus

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, nauseus said:

This just up on the Beeb. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523

 

 

Well, Imperial College would say that, wouldn't they?

 

You know, since they were the arch proponents of Lockdown. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Logosone

[Bkk Brian]

33 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Has he got a new album out?

 

This just up on the Beeb. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523

 

Who to believe? No pun intended.

Here's a similar study on that and yes its been peer reviewed unlike most of the hasty studies so far on Covid

 

"New research shows that the restrictive measures taken around the world to slow the spread of the coronavirus have delivered considerable health benefits.

Public health measures including social distancing and lockdowns have prevented more than 500 million additional coronavirus infections in six countries, according to the peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature."

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf

 

Peer review file: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-020-2404-8/MediaObjects/41586_2020_2404_MOESM3_ESM.pdf

Edited June 9, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[johnnybangkok]

I'm now just wondering what's going to go on the longest; Covid or this thread?

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here's a similar study on that and yes its been peer reviewed unlike most of the hasty studies so far on Covid

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf

 

Peer review file: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-020-2404-8/MediaObjects/41586_2020_2404_MOESM3_ESM.pdf

Some more mathematical modelling "we estimate that" x number of cases were prevented.

 

Not really convincing.