Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[mommysboy]

43 minutes ago, farang51 said:

The duration will be for a long time. From what I have read, it will take a year or two to achieve herd-immunity. And even with herd-immunity, there will still be a risk.

Even if quarantined, the virus may enter with deliveries to the nursing home.

No, herd immunity not only protects those with antibodies but also those that don't.  The virus simply has too limited targets for infection and dies out.  However, without protecting the elderly/at risk now, herd immunity is an unacceptable strategy since so many will perish.  

[farang51]

Just having the right protective gear would be a start.

Absolutely; however, few countries had that. Either because they didn't think about it or because they needed the protective gears at the hospitals.

No, herd immunity not only protects those with antibodies but also those that don't.

I know, it will die out; however, it may ravish a nursing home first. Today, most countries do have herd immunity for measles; nonetheless, from time to time, there's an outbreak in those countries too.

[vermin on arrival]

50 minutes ago, farang51 said:

The duration will be for a long time. From what I have read, it will take a year or two to achieve herd-immunity. And even with herd-immunity, there will still be a risk.

Even if quarantined, the virus may enter with deliveries to the nursing home.

The duration to achieve herd immunity or the saturation point is a subject of much debate. Some say a very long time. Other say it would be much much shorter. The lockdowns certainly will in fact negate the possibility achieving herd immunity making a vaccine or reliable treatment a necessity, and may in fact, mean those societies with low infection rates now will most likely have a second wave unless the world remains shut.

 

If you listen to epidemiologists such as Knut Wittkowski(I recommend the above debate I posted as an interesting listen) and Sunetra Gupta, you will see much more optimistic viewpoints of a quicker achievement of herd immunity occurring, and differing thoughts on the % needed to reach herd immunity (much lower than the 80% as is conventionally though of as needed). There is the possibility of cross coronavirus immunity and people fighting off the disease without producing antigens, so in fact, many more people may already be immune in the first place than is commonly thought.

 

There will be risk no matter what one does. but unless there is a quickly developed and reliable vaccine or drug therapy, or the virus miraculously disappears, herd immunity will be a necessary protection.

[Bkk Brian]

35 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

There will be risk no matter what one does. but unless there is a quickly developed and reliable vaccine or drug therapy, or the virus miraculously disappears, herd immunity will be a necessary protection.

I'm hoping the Oxford vaccine which has just entered the final phase 3 trials will be the one, if so then it would be ready by the end of the year to start distribution as they've already started manufacture. Of course there are also other very hopeful candidates if this one fails. Hopeful being the key as we know a vaccine is not guaranteed.

 

Beijing now has an outbreak, after 50 days with no new cases, the main seafood and meat market has a cluster, not good news. This will just replicate in every country with sporadic outbreaks now and again, always on tender hooks until we get that herd immunity, either natural or via vaccine.

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

The duration to achieve herd immunity or the saturation point is a subject of much debate. Some say a very long time. Other say it would be much much shorter. The lockdowns certainly will in fact negate the possibility achieving herd immunity making a vaccine or reliable treatment a necessity, and may in fact, mean those societies with low infection rates now will most likely have a second wave unless the world remains shut.

 

If you listen to epidemiologists such as Knut Wittkowski(I recommend the above debate I posted as an interesting listen) and Sunetra Gupta, you will see much more optimistic viewpoints of a quicker achievement of herd immunity occurring, and differing thoughts on the % needed to reach herd immunity (much lower than the 80% as is conventionally though of as needed). There is the possibility of cross coronavirus immunity and people fighting off the disease without producing antigens, so in fact, many more people may already be immune in the first place than is commonly thought.

 

There will be risk no matter what one does. but unless there is a quickly developed and reliable vaccine or drug therapy, or the virus miraculously disappears, herd immunity will be a necessary protection.

Spot on. The issue of cross/part immunity has not been talked about much, but could be a major factor between individuals and countries.

 

I have also met a few people who claim never to suffer colds.

Edited June 13, 2020 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/13/beijing-china-new-covid-19-cases-linked-to-food-market

 

Sure, UK and Sweden bungled (if only because they did not protect the elderly and couldn't muster a few thousand decent face masks between them), but the latest outbreak above shows why avoiding herd immunity probably won't work long term.

 

Good to see they've learned their lessons about markets!

[Pattaya46]

41 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

// but the latest outbreak above [China] shows why avoiding herd immunity probably won't work long term.

Hum... Until now they are just talking about one cluster

and 45 persons tested positive, on a population of 1.4 billion...

[mommysboy]

38 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

Hum... Until now they are just talking about one cluster

and 45 persons tested positive, on a population of 1.4 billion...

Yes but it means you have to go in to partial lockdown every time there is a cluster, or else, as is happening here.  And it will happen again and again.

 

There's no gain, because the population remains at constant risk, since no herd immunity builds up.  In the absence of a vaccine, effective treatment, or a natural end the country remains at a constant state of high anxiety for months and possibly years.

 

 

[cmarshall]

Lest we be counting our chickens before they are hatched, it's worthwhile to remember that of the seven known coronaviruses humans develop only temporary immunity, measured in months, to four of them.  For the other three it is not known if infection provides any, even temporary, immunity.

 

Despite continuing efforts particularly against SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses, no successful vaccine has ever been developed against any coronavirus.

 

 

[mommysboy]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Lest we be counting our chickens before they are hatched, it's worthwhile to remember that of the seven known coronaviruses humans develop only temporary immunity, measured in months, to four of them.  For the other three it is not known if infection provides any, even temporary, immunity.

 

Despite continuing efforts particularly against SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses, no successful vaccine has ever been developed against any coronavirus.

 

 

 

It's difficult to counter that.

 

Yet it is known that people develop antibodies to the infection, and these antibodies are already being used as a viable treatment for those more seriously effected in the form of convalescent therapy.

 

Generally, it is accepted that once a person has had a viral URI then they have immunity for the duration of that particular strain, if only because the strain dies out before immunity runs out.

 

As to a vaccine, yes I am skeptical too.  Imo it's a matter of time, but is more likely a couple of years than a couple of months.

 

 

[Logosone]

23 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Lest we be counting our chickens before they are hatched, it's worthwhile to remember that of the seven known coronaviruses

 

There's over 5000 known coronaviruses, there's seven strains we know of that affect humans so far. Big difference.

 

Of course we've heard this idioticy before that there's no immunity to coronaviruses or SARS Cov2. As the recent experience has shown it's fantastic nonsense.

 

Immunity can be temporary, it's still the rule with viral infections.

[yuyiinthesky]

On 6/14/2020 at 11:03 AM, cmarshall said:

Despite continuing efforts particularly against SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses, no successful vaccine has ever been developed against any coronavirus.

Yes, it doesn't look good for a vaccine.

 

Any strategy based on "lockdown until we have a vaccine" might very well mean lockdown until all economy is destroyed, all are starving to death. In my eyes it would be a very wrong strategy.

 

Like it or not, lockdown or not, this nightmare will end when herd immunity is reached. In certain regions this will happen faster, in others slower.

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 6/14/2020 at 11:03 AM, cmarshall said:

Lest we be counting our chickens before they are hatched, it's worthwhile to remember that of the seven known coronaviruses humans develop only temporary immunity, measured in months, to four of them.  For the other three it is not known if infection provides any, even temporary, immunity.

 

Despite continuing efforts particularly against SARS and MERS, both coronaviruses, no successful vaccine has ever been developed against any coronavirus.

There are no licensed vaccines for coronaviruses but there are some pretty straightforward reasons for that. The coronaviruses that cause colds only account for about 15-20% of common cold infections and colds are almost totally non-lethal so there really is no overwhelming incentive, either medically or financially to go through all the time and effort and cost to develop two separate vaccines that would not even help with the vast majority (over 80%) of colds.

 

Development of SARS vaccines came to a halt because the virus disappeared all by itself - again there's not much incentive to develop a vaccine for something that doesn't exist any more.

 

Also, it depends what you mean by "successful". For MERS, it's true there isn't a licensed vaccine yet but once more, it's not a major threat, given that it only kills a hundred or so people every year and is geographically confined to just a small area. Despite that, there is a MERS vaccine that has successfully come through all its pre-clinical and clinical development phases so far and is currently showing promising signs in ongoing phrase 3 trials in Saudi Arabia.

 

Furthermore, it is known that being infected with SARS does invoke a strong immune response in patients, with multiple studies showing high levels of protective antibodies for up to two years after infection.

 

One study even found patients with SARS antibodies as much as eight years later, though at relatively low levels.

[yuyiinthesky]

Sweden records first week with no excess mortality since pandemic struck!
 

Quote

“That is the first week since the corona outbreak that has happened,” Statistics Sweden said in a statement, adding the deaths might still be revised up to show a slight excess mortality. 
 

The agency said the only demographic with excess mortality in Sweden last week were people aged 90 and above.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-mortality-idUSKBN23F1WK

 

This was published June 8, but I had missed it until now. Apologies if it was posted here already.

 

In my humble opinion very significant news.

 

 

[yuyiinthesky]

33 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Furthermore, it is known that being infected with SARS does invoke a strong immune response in patients, with multiple studies showing high levels of protective antibodies for up to two years after infection.

 

One study even found patients with SARS antibodies as much as eight years later, though at relatively low levels.

Indeed. We can safely expect a very similar situation for SARS-CoV-2.

[mommysboy]

a new therapeutic treatment from UK scientists:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid/scientists-hail-dexamethasone-as-major-breakthrough-in-treating-covid-19-idUSKBN23N1VP

 

I doubt we'll get any thanks- just criticism as always.

[farang51]

Great news! Now, onwards with the Oxford vaccine ...

[yuyiinthesky]

49 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

a new therapeutic treatment from UK scientists:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid/scientists-hail-dexamethasone-as-major-breakthrough-in-treating-covid-19-idUSKBN23N1VP

 

I doubt we'll get any thanks- just criticism as always.

Here is one: Thanks, that is good news! Keep it coming!

[Bkk Brian]

On 6/14/2020 at 4:02 PM, mommysboy said:

 

Yet it is known that people develop antibodies to the infection, and these antibodies are already being used as a viable treatment for those more seriously effected in the form of convalescent therapy.

 

Generally, it is accepted that once a person has had a viral URI then they have immunity for the duration of that particular strain, if only because the strain dies out before immunity runs out.

 

Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

[vermin on arrival]

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

So, in other words, cross coronavirus immunity is true and may be the reason people can fight off the virus without developing antigens and the ifr is probably lower than studies would suggest as certain people are probably immune.

[Logosone]

18 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

So, in other words, cross coronavirus immunity is true and may be the reason people can fight off the virus without developing antigens and the ifr is probably lower than studies would suggest as certain people are probably immune.

Certain people, but not certain salmon. Norway is under fire as its Salmon industry fights for survival after China blames its second wave on "European Salmon". Chinese state linked media claimed coronavirus was found on chopping boards of European Salmon vendors. All sales of European Salmon halted in China. Norway denies its salmon have coronavirus.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Certain people, but not certain salmon. Norway is under fire as its Salmon industry fights for survival after China blames its second wave on "European Salmon". Chinese state linked media claimed coronavirus was found on chopping boards of European Salmon vendors. All sales of European Salmon halted in China. Norway denies its salmon have coronavirus.

 

Sounds fishy of you ask me.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/3/2020 at 4:03 PM, Logosone said:

And more importantly NZ started testing and isolating the infected on a grand scale. 

testing .......................................... on a grand scale. 

LOL.

[Bkk Brian]

On 6/13/2020 at 3:49 PM, vermin on arrival said:

Yes, I think so too. One method I have read that can be done is to have the staff needed to maintain the nursing home to actually live and be quarantined with the people they are to protect and care for for the duration of the emergency.

In the US at the Maryland Baptist Elderly Home in West Baltimore the oldest African-American owned and operated nursing home in the state has had no infections from coronavirus among its residents and employees, because its director took immediate action.

 

Interesting read on how the director took decisive action not because of government recommendations as there were none but because of common sense. Certainly not a risk free approach but there is no risk free strategy.

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/dan-rodricks/bs-md-rodricks-0619-20200618-re2obahhbzbddojazrkf65gdoq-story.html

[vermin on arrival]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

In the US at the Maryland Baptist Elderly Home in West Baltimore the oldest African-American owned and operated nursing home in the state has had no infections from coronavirus among its residents and employees, because its director took immediate action.

 

Interesting read on how the director took decisive action not because of government recommendations as there were none but because of common sense. Certainly not a risk free approach but there is no risk free strategy.

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/dan-rodricks/bs-md-rodricks-0619-20200618-re2obahhbzbddojazrkf65gdoq-story.html

After reading the article it seemed pretty simple and common sense. All that was lacking was the political will and taking the disease seriously at an early juncture. Taiwan had no outbreaks in it's nursing homes at all. Unfortunately the bad( I believe federal) guidelines in the US actually led some States to create epidemics in their nursing homes by shipping patients who were not fully recovered back to their nursing homes to free up hospital beds, leading to tens of thousands of deaths.

[geriatrickid]

On 6/16/2020 at 10:18 AM, mommysboy said:

a new therapeutic treatment from UK scientists:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid/scientists-hail-dexamethasone-as-major-breakthrough-in-treating-covid-19-idUSKBN23N1VP

 

I doubt we'll get any thanks- just criticism as always.

Why would you expect thanks? Did you undertake the clinical trial or sponsor it?

And why are you carrying on as if this was something that was unique to the UK? The initial Sponsor was a SPANISH hospital. Yes, the UK followed  and released its "conclusions" first,  but the trials are ongoing and the study won't be concluded until October.  The initial results were available in April.

 

In plain language, the UK did nothing new and was a participant in an ongoing activity with a drug already being  trialed.

 

Efficacy of Dexamethasone Treatment for Patients With ARDS Caused by COVID-19 (DEXA-COVID19)

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04325061

Sponsor:  Dr. Negrin University Hospital

Collaborators:  Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute

Consorcio Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red, M.P.

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT04325061

First Submitted :March 25, 2020

First Submitted that Met QC Criteria:March 26, 2020

First Posted  :March 27, 2020

Last Update Submitted that Met QC Criteria:April 15, 2020

Last Update Posted:April 17, 2020

 

 

Brief Summary: Background: There are no proven therapies specific for Covid-19. The full spectrum of Covid-19 ranges from asymptomatic disease to mild respiratory tract illness to severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multiorgan failure, and death. The efficacy of corticosteroids in viral ARDS remains controversial.

 

Methods: This is an internationally (Spain, Canada, China, USA) designed multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial testing dexamethasone in mechanically ventilated adult patients with established moderate-to-severe ARDS caused by confirmed Covid-19 infection, admitted in a network of Spanish ICUs. Eligible patients will be randomly assigned to receive either dexamethasone plus standard intensive care, or standard intensive care alone. Patients in the dexamethasone group will receive an intravenous dose of 20 mg once daily from day 1 to day 5, followed by 10 mg once daily from day 6 to day 10. The primary outcome is 60-day mortality. The secondary outcome is the number of ventilator-free days at 28 days. All analyses will be done according to the intention-to-treat principle.

[Bkk Brian]

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Why would you expect thanks? Did you undertake the clinical trial or sponsor it?

And why are you carrying on as if this was something that was unique to the UK? The initial Sponsor was a SPANISH hospital. Yes, the UK followed  and released its "conclusions" first,  but the trials are ongoing and the study won't be concluded until October.  The initial results were available in April.

 

In plain language, the UK did nothing new and was a participant in an ongoing activity with a drug already being  trialed.

 

Efficacy of Dexamethasone Treatment for Patients With ARDS Caused by COVID-19 (DEXA-COVID19)

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04325061

 

 

Thats a completely separate study to the UK Oxford one which is part of the The RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapy) trial a UK backed organisation https://www.recoverytrial.net/ and is trialing a number of drugs. 

 

The UK study also included trials on patients on ventilators and those only needing supplemental oxygen. Whereas the study you refer to includes only trials on patients on mechanical ventilators.

 

There are many trials on therapeutic drugs ongoing throughout the world for COVID interventions, the UK just happen to have pipped the post on this particular drug which is extremely beneficial and why they released early results. 

 

 

[pineapple01]

Perhaps they are clever in Sweden, culling the weak in an overpopulated world has its benefits. Nature tends to think so too.

[balo]

Sweden top the list again over deaths the last 24 hours in European countries.
67 deaths, compared with the UK I think only 14 deaths. 

[utalkin2me]

If you compare Sweden's death stats to the USA right now, the pattern Sweden predicted is taking place quite clearly.

 

Deaths LONG TERM are not going to be influenced greatly by lockdowns. 

 

Once again, I think the best way to put this, is ask yourself if a government can control a tsunami or an earthquake. Not even close. It is the same with this natural disaster, we are past the "control point". One carrier started all of this. I would admit early on in the spread when you can still test and trace effectively government can have an affect, but we are past that point. Governments can do little to nothing to control it. For example, people would already be wary and taking precautions with little to no governmental regulations, as in Sweden.

 

Long term the numbers are going to look similar everywhere. The biggest losers are going to be the countries who appear to be doing "the best" right now with severe lockdowns and few deaths eg Australia, New Zealand.