Ministry worried about Covid-19 scenario when lockdown ends

[rooster59]

Ministry worried about Covid-19 scenario when lockdown ends

By THE NATION

 

Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin

 

The three Ts -- tracing, testing and treatment -- at the community level hold the key to Thailand winning the battle to contain Covid-19, the spokesman of the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said, while revealing three scenarios the Ministry of Public Health has projected from now until September.

 

 

“The first scenario is if Thailand continues the lockdown measures announced under the emergency decree, we will have approximately 15 new cases per day and three reported cases per day,” Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, CCSA spokesman, said on Friday (May 15). "The number of critical patients who need to stay in ICU and use ventilation machines will be 15, which is easily manageable."

 

“The second scenario is when the country starts to ease lockdown measures and lets certain businesses to operate as usual; we may have approximately 114 new cases per day and 24 reported cases per day,” he said. “We will also have 105 critical patients who need ventilation machines; our medical facilities and equipment should be adequate.”

 

According to Taweesin, the third scenario projects the situation when Thailand lifts all lockdown measures and allows all businesses to resume. The daily new cases could jump to 398 with 65 reported cases daily and 289 critical patients.

 

“The second scenario is the most suitable option for us,” said Taweesin.

 

The CCSA spokesman also added that even if the infection rate at the community level were reduced by 30-50 per cent, the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases would still be on a rising trend. “Examples from national pandemic models indicate that we need to reduce infection rate at community level to more than 70 per cent to keep the new confirmed cases at a manageable level,” he said. “Intense lockdown measures in the short term helped us achieve this and avoided a major pandemic that could have happened in April.”

 

“The key strategies to reduce community infection level is the 3Ts, which are tracing, testing and treatment,” Taweesin added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387951

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-16

 

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[smedly]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The three Ts -- tracing, testing and treatment -- at the community level hold the key to Thailand winning the battle to contain Covid-19, the spokesman of the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said, while revealing three scenarios the Ministry of Public Health has projected from now until September.

it's like they are talking about another country based on the data they release 

 

what infection ?, according to the official data Thailand is pretty much free of CV-19 

 

But I always say - "The actions speak louder than the words" it just doesn't add up

[dinsdale]

So let's give this a grade. Start with testing. 2/10. Among the lowest testing countries in the world. Tracing. 4/10. Tracing seems to have been ok but this is dependant on testing and identifying. Treatment is difficult to grade because we don't know the true figures and how covid is assigned or not to deaths. They are worried because they have not been testing and do not know the true spread, number of asymptomatic people and people thinking it's all ok now. People will think it's ok because the daily numbers tell them so. More and more of what's coming out now indicates they know the situation is somewhat different to the official line. 

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

According to Taweesin, the third scenario projects the situation when Thailand lifts all lockdown measures and allows all businesses to resume. The daily new cases could jump to 398 with 65 reported cases daily and 289 critical patients.

This is more likely what's been happening otherwise where would these numbers come from.

[yuyiinthesky]

Looks like he took the model Neil Ferguson used when he first announced the end of the world if we don't lockdown.

[bodga]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“Intense lockdown measures in the short term helped us achieve this and avoided a major pandemic that could have happened in April.”

Rubbish,  nothing even mildly intense about Thailands  lockdown measure, what use is a 10pm to 4 am curfew.

[drbeach]

23 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

So let's give this a grade. Start with testing. 2/10. Among the lowest testing countries in the world. Tracing. 4/10. Tracing seems to have been ok but this is dependant on testing and identifying. Treatment is difficult to grade because we don't know the true figures and how covid is assigned or not to deaths. They are worried because they have not been testing and do not know the true spread, number of asymptomatic people and people thinking it's all ok now. People will think it's ok because the daily numbers tell them so. More and more of what's coming out now indicates they know the situation is somewhat different to the official line. 

This is more likely what's been happening otherwise where would these numbers come from.

Oh BS. Look at Laos - they've tested almost no one, hence why they're able to claim a paltry 19 cases unchanged in a month. Meanwhile, Thailand has performed a total of well over 200,000 tests (Laos 3500). Cambodia 14400.

[dinsdale]

Just now, drbeach said:

Oh BS. Look at Laos - they've tested almost no one, hence why they're able to claim a paltry 19 cases unchanged in a month. Meanwhile, Thailand has performed a total of well over 200,000 tests (Laos 3500). Cambodia 14400.

286,000 tests in a population of 70 million is not a lot. Australia, pop. 25 mil has tested 1,000,000.

[cornishcarlos]

8 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

286,000 tests in a population of 70 million is not a lot. Australia, pop. 25 mil has tested 1,000,000.

 

Australia also closed the gates early and, apart from letting the cruise ship of death dock in Sydney, has done a great job of keeping imported cases minimal.

[dinsdale]

Just now, cornishcarlos said:

 

Australia also closed the gates early and, apart from letting the cruise ship of death dock in Sydney, has done a great job of keeping imported cases minimal.

I think if Australia took to mask wearing the situation would have been much better sooner. Unfortunately mask stocks were bought up and shipped to China.

[bluesofa]

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“The first scenario is if Thailand continues the lockdown measures announced under the emergency decree, we will have approximately 15 new cases per day and three reported cases per day,”

What am I missing here regarding the difference between 'new cases per day' and 'reported cases per day'?

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, drbeach said:

Oh BS. Look at Laos - they've tested almost no one, hence why they're able to claim a paltry 19 cases unchanged in a month. Meanwhile, Thailand has performed a total of well over 200,000 tests (Laos 3500). Cambodia 14400.

That number is if you count total tests performed. However, only a portion of those are tests whose results get revealed. Those are limited to tests which were performed at one of the two official reference labs and confirmed at the other one. Tests done at random hospitals or only one of the two labs are counted in the total tests number but they are meaningless if we don't know the results of those tests. So, if you only include the tests done at both labs and where we get the report of the result, I think Thailand has done between 50k-60k.

[statman78]

The basic question is .... have any of the models been correct?  The numbers predicted are just guesses based on models which have not been correct.

[Curt1591]

37 minutes ago, statman78 said:

The basic question is .... have any of the models been correct?  The numbers predicted are just guesses based on models which have not been correct.

 

Thailand had actually been pretty lax. Measure were taken late, and followed even later. I think this has shown that this has been little more than another flu-like cyclic event - it came, it peaked, and now it fades. 

And, since the bat's now out of the bag, no matter what measures are mandated, it will return next year, most likely to a lessor degree. 

Much of the massive numbers are simply manufactured. If we put on our tinfoil hats, we might be able to come up with some reasons for the desire for large numbers. 

Agencies often tweak numbers to accomplish desired results: 
 

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Curt1591

[bkk6060]

Things seem to be going pretty well so keep the borders closed.

If not, charge extra for a ticket and test every person who gets on a plane coming here.

Then, test again when they get off.

 

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Australia also closed the gates early and, apart from letting the cruise ship of death dock in Sydney, has done a great job of keeping imported cases minimal.

I'm beginning to think that the lockdowns around the world had a close to zero effect on the spread of the disease which now appears to have been circulating for far longer than has been reported.

 

[yuyiinthesky]

27 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

If not, charge extra for a ticket and test every person who gets on a plane coming here.

What is hat for a nonsense, "charge extra for a ticket"? For what? 

[natway09]

I think that the Thai community (which includes us Farangs here for more than 6 months)

are looking OK & could move around a bit more.

The problems are just  starting. Took China & Sth Korea off the list of dangerous places yesterday.

Once they start moving here & borders are opened we are worse than back to square one.

But I still cannot have a beer & a game of pool  with the guys who have been self isolated like us.

Getting a bit Thai wealthy businessman supportive are we ?

[holy cow cm]

They forgot the 4th T. Mandatory Tracking you everywhere you go. 

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, bluesofa said:

What am I missing here regarding the difference between 'new cases per day' and 'reported cases per day'?

The truth, that's what's missing.

[cyril sneer]

i'm more concerned about the scenario when covid ends

 

now they've tried and tested alcohol bans, lockdowns and closures I can see these being used when everything is back to normal, when of course, they feel like doing so

[Canuck1966]

18 hours ago, dinsdale said:

286,000 tests in a population of 70 million is not a lot. Australia, pop. 25 mil has tested 1,000,000.

I bet most of those tests were just temperature checks too

[Sunderland]

On 5/16/2020 at 2:19 PM, smedly said:

it's like they are talking about another country based on the data they release 

 

what infection ?, according to the official data Thailand is pretty much free of CV-19 

 

But I always say - "The actions speak louder than the words" it just doesn't add up

Absolutely. The actions are based on somewhere that has a lot more reported cases - like Indonesia, Maldives, Qatar, etc.

[Sunderland]

On 5/16/2020 at 3:09 PM, dinsdale said:

286,000 tests in a population of 70 million is not a lot. Australia, pop. 25 mil has tested 1,000,000.

 

Once again, that is 286,000 tests, not 286,000 people tested, which is well below 100,000.

[Sunderland]

On 5/16/2020 at 4:36 PM, bluesofa said:

What am I missing here regarding the difference between 'new cases per day' and 'reported cases per day'?

Not sure. Is reported cases per day those that make good TV, and new cases per day are those that are probably really infected?

[tribalfusion001]

Locking yourself in and not admitting anyone until it goes away is not going to work. The best strategy is to live with it and revive economies.

[DrTuner]

On 5/16/2020 at 4:36 PM, bluesofa said:

What am I missing here regarding the difference between 'new cases per day' and 'reported cases per day'?

Looks like he let the "Probable" vs "Confirmed" ratio slip out.

 

So, take the daily propaganda numbers and multiply by at least five to get positive test numbers in government labs. Then add about 2x for private hospitals. 

[connda]

On 5/16/2020 at 10:56 AM, rooster59 said:

The three Ts -- tracing, testing and treatment -- at the community level hold the key to Thailand winning the battle to contain Covid-19, the spokesman of the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said, while revealing three scenarios the Ministry of Public Health has projected from now until September.

What the various authoritarian ministries are really worried about is losing their ability to issue dictates to make the general populace dance at the ends of strings that the ministries pull.  The power hunger got a taste of absolute power and it tasted so sweet.  They'll not want to give that up anytime soon.

[spiekerjozef]

On 5/16/2020 at 10:56 AM, rooster59 said:

Ministry worried about Covid-19 scenario when lockdown ends

The citizens were worried when the lockdown started...

[spiekerjozef]

On 5/16/2020 at 10:56 AM, rooster59 said:

“The second scenario is when the country starts to ease lockdown measures and lets certain businesses to operate as usual; we may have approximately 114 new cases per day and 24 reported cases per day,” he said.

How can that happen if the incubation time is 14 days and you had no new cases for a month ? It becomes a problem when the borders opening up again.

[Ketyo]

It's harder to get out of lockdown than to put it in place. Especially if you are a low education army general.

 

This situation shows how the Thai government is too incompetent to come up with an exit plan.

 

But then I suppose that's why its a poor country. And will remain a poor country.