New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

[webfact]

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

 

A lifeguard wearing a protective face mask takes the temperature of a woman at a newly reopened beach after months of closure due to an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), at Punta Hidalgo, in Punta Ala, Italy May 31, 2020. REUTERS/Jennifer Lorenzini

 

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

 

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

 

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

 

Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

 

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.

 

Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

 

"We've got to get back to being a normal country," he said. "Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country."

 

The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory.

 

"Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared ... I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians," Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement.

 

"We should instead invite Italians to maintain the maximum caution, maintain physical distancing, avoid large groups, to frequently wash their hands and to wear masks."

 

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

 

"The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today," said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

 

"It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different."

 

(Reporting by Crispian Balmer; Additional reporting by Giuseppe Fonte; Editing by Giles Elgood)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-01

 

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[ukrules]

Interesting I guess.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Herd immunity is a beautiful thing.

[baansgr]

Same as anything made in China, never lasts long

[smedly]

6 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Same as anything made in China, never lasts long

Post of the week 

[tribalfusion001]

21 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Same as anything made in China, never lasts long

I'm sure some Thai bar girls have told me the same thing lol.

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The new coronavirus is losing its potency

In this case impotency is a good thing.

[stephenterry]

On the understanding that this is a true medical effect, it's very encouraging. One could assume from these practising doctors that this virus is a 'perfect replicator', and unlike the imperfect HIV virus, less likely to mutate into a more deadly strain.

 

Which means while a 2nd phase is likely with global lockdowns being eased, the number of subsequent deaths would be lower than at present.

[ukrules]

There's a lot more to this than first meets the eye.

 

Predictions based on models have assumed zero immunity and 100% of the population is vulnerable to this. That's now looking very wrong.

 

If you want to know more about this then google 'sars-cov-2 specific t cells cross reactive' which are present in about 40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections, probably inside the last couple of years. The documents are mostly studies which are a little complicated but there are some articles which spell it out in a way which is easier to understand.

 

A specific as yet unknown common cold virus which is a coronavirus (there's only 4 of them that are endemic) provides this immune response and it's very widespread. They don't know which of the colds does it but I'm sure there's many people working on this in labs around the world right now.

 

Could one of the 4 existing HCoVs (common cold coronaviruses) function as an effective vaccine? My suspicion is that it could and this is what explains the very large number of very mild and asymptomatic cases.

 

 

 

[Bender Rodriguez]

a fart in a bottle

 

0.2 percent death mortality, for HEALTHY people ...  quarantine the sick 

 

and scared people: stay home

[Nigel Garvie]

3 hours ago, stephenterry said:

On the understanding that this is a true medical effect, it's very encouraging. One could assume from these practising doctors that this virus is a 'perfect replicator', and unlike the imperfect HIV virus, less likely to mutate into a more deadly strain.

 

Which means while a 2nd phase is likely with global lockdowns being eased, the number of subsequent deaths would be lower than at present.

Certainly caution here is the best approach. This is an encouraging assessment, but not proven science yet. I think all viruses mutate. Anything that multiplies rapidly (Like cancer sadly) copies often and thus mutates often. Most mutations are harmless. In the case of a virus a mutation can make it more, or less harmful. I did read a scientific paper which argued that in cases where the virus is highly toxic, it is more likely to become less so than more so. I guess that the highly toxic forms may tend to be less stable.

[Letseng]

1 hour ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

a fart in a bottle

 

0.2 percent death mortality, for HEALTHY people ...  quarantine the sick 

 

and scared people: stay home

That why UK has such a high death rate, isn't it?

[George Aylesham]

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

Interesting I guess.

It's not clear from the article whether it is the virus itself becoming weaker or the epidemic is weakening. If it is the former, this is very good news indeed.

[phantomfiddler]

So what,s all this we now read about the Italian deaths being caused by a blood clotting and easily treatable bacteria, and not by the elusive Corona virus, or is this entire scenario just a continuous stream of fake news right from the beginning ?

[Proboscis]

6 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Herd immunity is a beautiful thing.

Herd immunity is not the same as what is alleged here by the Italian doctors. Herd immunity is when a sufficient number of individuals in the population (somewhere between 60% and 80%) have either been vaccinated or survived the disease and are carrying suffient antibodies to combat any future infection.

 

What is being described here is the alleged weakening of the virus and its infectivity. If true, several issues arise. 1. This weakening can change as the virus mutates. 2. The form that is weakening in Italy is clearly not the one that is still killing people in the USA and elsewhere in large numbers. Given the lack of international travel, it is not possible for the weaker version to predominate. 3. Now that we have experienced what a virus that comes from animals can do to us, even if this virus dies out for whtever reason (we should be so lucky!), we should be preparing now for the next one.

 

Another pandemic is on its way unless we put in the safeguards. This time, believe it or not, we were lucky. It only killed a small number of people infected and largely left children alone. The next time we may not be so lucky!

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

So what,s all this we now read about the Italian deaths being caused by a blood clotting and easily treatable bacteria, and not by the elusive Corona virus, or is this entire scenario just a continuous stream of fake news right from the beginning ?

No

[utalkin2me]

Losing potency is a huge understatement. 

 

Please show me an infection curve that has surpassed the initial curve. 

 

Another interesting note is that the word "exponential" growth was constantly used. There was not actually exponential growth for any sustained period with this virus. This makes sense, a single person generally has extended contact with the same people everyday. 

[yuyiinthesky]

5 hours ago, ukrules said:

There's a lot more to this than first meets the eye.

 

Predictions based on models have assumed zero immunity and 100% of the population is vulnerable to this. That's now looking very wrong.

 

If you want to know more about this then google 'sars-cov-2 specific t cells cross reactive' which are present in about 40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections, probably inside the last couple of years. The documents are mostly studies which are a little complicated but there are some articles which spell it out in a way which is easier to understand.

 

A specific as yet unknown common cold virus which is a coronavirus (there's only 4 of them that are endemic) provides this immune response and it's very widespread. They don't know which of the colds does it but I'm sure there's many people working on this in labs around the world right now.

 

Could one of the 4 existing HCoVs (common cold coronaviruses) function as an effective vaccine? My suspicion is that it could and this is what explains the very large number of very mild and asymptomatic cases.

 

The as far as I know first study published about this "40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections":

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

 

 

[johnpetersen]

3 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

So what,s all this we now read about the Italian deaths being caused by a blood clotting and easily treatable bacteria, and not by the elusive Corona virus, or is this entire scenario just a continuous stream of fake news right from the beginning ?

.False claims circulate around Italian COVID-19 study

CLAIM: Italy discovers through autopsies that COVID-19 is “not a virus, but a bacterium,” which clots the blood. COVID-19 can “easily” be treated with aspirin and blood thinning medicine. 

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8971390832

[superal]

4 hours ago, Proboscis said:

Herd immunity is not the same as what is alleged here by the Italian doctors. Herd immunity is when a sufficient number of individuals in the population (somewhere between 60% and 80%) have either been vaccinated or survived the disease and are carrying suffient antibodies to combat any future infection.

 

What is being described here is the alleged weakening of the virus and its infectivity. If true, several issues arise. 1. This weakening can change as the virus mutates. 2. The form that is weakening in Italy is clearly not the one that is still killing people in the USA and elsewhere in large numbers. Given the lack of international travel, it is not possible for the weaker version to predominate. 3. Now that we have experienced what a virus that comes from animals can do to us, even if this virus dies out for whtever reason (we should be so lucky!), we should be preparing now for the next one.

 

Another pandemic is on its way unless we put in the safeguards. This time, believe it or not, we were lucky. It only killed a small number of people infected and largely left children alone. The next time we may not be so lucky!

Your assumption is the virus came from animals which has not been proved . If it came from animals , as you say , why has it not been infecting people before the last 8 months ? The disgusting despicable Chinese eating habits that include eating bats , cats ,  live snake , fish , mice , donkey , frogs , bats , monkey brains , yes live monkeys tied up with their heads poking through the table and its brains eaten , makes the theory of animal cross infection believable but so does the laboratory created virus being biased to many scientists .

           I hope you are wrong about another virus on the way or indeed a second wave of covid 19 in a mutated version .  One thing appears to be certain and that is China has a lot of questions to answer but the truth may never be known .

  

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, superal said:

Your assumption is the virus came from animals which has not been proved . If it came from animals , as you say , why has it not been infecting people before the last 8 months ? The disgusting despicable Chinese eating habits that include eating bats , cats ,  live snake , fish , mice , donkey , frogs , bats , monkey brains , yes live monkeys tied up with their heads poking through the table and its brains eaten , makes the theory of animal cross infection believable but so does the laboratory created virus being biased to many scientists .

           I hope you are wrong about another virus on the way or indeed a second wave of covid 19 in a mutated version .  One thing appears to be certain and that is China has a lot of questions to answer but the truth may never be known .

  

Have you been watching too much raiders of the lost arc series, or can you point to where exactly  in China the eating of live monkey brains goes on. 

 

"why has it not been infecting people before the last 8 months"  because just like other new (to us) viruses it did not make the transfer from Animal to man till a specific point in time. Duh.

 

All the serious DNA studies done in the west have indicated that it is incredibly unlikely that this virus was made or altered in a lab. The processes that we have to do that, are very limited and all leave TELLTALE signs of human manipulation. 

 

A second wave doesn't need to mutate, it only needs utterly idiotic or twisted political leaders with an evil agenda, to end lockdowns too soon. We have a good supply of those. 

[superal]

14 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Have you been watching too much raiders of the lost arc series, or can you point to where exactly  in China the eating of live monkey brains goes on. 

 

"why has it not been infecting people before the last 8 months"  because just like other new (to us) viruses it did not make the transfer from Animal to man till a specific point in time. Duh.

 

All the serious DNA studies done in the west have indicated that it is incredibly unlikely that this virus was made or altered in a lab. The processes that we have to do that, are very limited and all leave TELLTALE signs of human manipulation. 

 

A second wave doesn't need to mutate, it only needs utterly idiotic or twisted political leaders with an evil agenda, to end lockdowns too soon. We have a good supply of those. 

You really need to wake up to the world of China which is like no other country in its vile eating habits .

Do you know how to use Google search ?  in case the following link disappears just type in on the top bar 

8 animals eaten alive in China https://china-underground.com/2014/08/16/7-animals-eaten-alive-in-china-graphic-content/   , these eating habits have been going on a lot longer than 8 months . Also what do you think they do in laboratories , make stink bombs ? DUH , In Wuhan they experiment with pathogens  and the particular lab has all but been shut down so the truth of the virus origin may never be known .

[stephenterry]

23 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Certainly caution here is the best approach. This is an encouraging assessment, but not proven science yet. I think all viruses mutate. Anything that multiplies rapidly (Like cancer sadly) copies often and thus mutates often. Most mutations are harmless. In the case of a virus a mutation can make it more, or less harmful. I did read a scientific paper which argued that in cases where the virus is highly toxic, it is more likely to become less so than more so. I guess that the highly toxic forms may tend to be less stable.

Yes, very true. some years back, I was taken through clinical research at a French operated HIV clinic in Chiang Mai. A very fascinating afternoon including listening to the stories of HIV suffers - mostly children - who had been combating the disease successfully. The HIV is regarded by researchers as a 'lazy' virus in that it doesn't fully replicate itself, thus leading to many differing strains that has been the bane of doctors in providing a vaccine.

 

Nowadays, it's a cocktail of drugs that keeps HIV as a treatable disease, and many infected persons can otherwise lead an ordinary life. With the Covid 19, it's possible that if it replicates efficiently, it could burn itself out when (enough) recovered persons gain antibody immunity. Thus the OP post is very encouraging in that this could be the case with this virus.  I would add that a cocktail of drugs/nutrients like Zinc and intravenous Vit C could also be the way forward to defeat this virus.    

Edited June 2, 2020 by stephenterry
addition

[rickudon]

My own take on this is that a successful virus is one that doesn't kill it's host. If you kill, or make the patient seriously ill, measures are taken to isolate patients and check contacts. Result - hard to maintain infection, spread in population is reduced. Mild infections do not result in isolation, and can spread more easily. Result - milder strains are more likely to be successful. Evolution at work. Just surprised that this may be happening already.

[Anton9]

I would like to see a Thai doctor saying something different than the usual scaremongering bs,maybe impossible.

[RobFord]

On 6/1/2020 at 10:37 AM, Nigel Garvie said:

I guess that the highly toxic forms may tend to be less stable.

Highly “toxic”  forms kill the host lessening contagion. 

[johnpetersen]

13 hours ago, superal said:

You really need to wake up to the world of China which is like no other country in its vile eating habits .

Do you know how to use Google search ?  in case the following link disappears just type in on the top bar 

8 animals eaten alive in China https://china-underground.com/2014/08/16/7-animals-eaten-alive-in-china-graphic-content/   , these eating habits have been going on a lot longer than 8 months . Also what do you think they do in laboratories , make stink bombs ? DUH , In Wuhan they experiment with pathogens  and the particular lab has all but been shut down so the truth of the virus origin may never be known .

What have the eating habits of the Chinese have to do with mutations in viruses? Did evolution stop when the Chinese began eating stuff you consider disgusting?

[DavisH]

Viruses generally become less virulent over time. I think covid will just evolve into a less deadly, seasonal flu. 

[superal]

10 hours ago, johnpetersen said:

What have the eating habits of the Chinese have to do with mutations in viruses? Did evolution stop when the Chinese began eating stuff you consider disgusting?

Please show where I said virus mutations were caused by Chinese eating habits . What is being sought is the origin of the virus and there is popular speculation that humans caught the virus from eating bats , civet cats etc . The laboratory theory is also believed but since it has been closed it will be difficult to prove . 

One thing is for sure is that this is a brand new covid strain with a high infection rate never seen in recent times and the mystery being where / how did it cross to humans .

It does appear there are various strengths of the virus as I read recently the Italian and most of Europe strain were more potent than the Thai virus .

I think most folks would agree that Chinese eating habits are disgusting and their government has imposed a ban of eating live animals and fish etc .