High anxiety - Dusit poll confirms the worst as Thailand suffers in pandemic

[Tropicalevo]

4 hours ago, talahtnut said:

These corona virus measures could

be considered as a cull of the poor

and infirm.

Sad but true for many countries.

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

The Thai baht is measured against a basket of other currencies,the country’s of which has also had significant or worse economic damage. It is comparative so no surprise the baht has not fallen back.

The Thai Baht is not measured against a basket of currencies it is subject to a floating or managed peg against USD,. The Chinese currency is managed against a basket of foreign currencies.

[Trillian]

6 minutes ago, geisha said:

So if all the money Thailand has is in central bank reserves, does this mean it  cannot  help the declining economy ? And what happens if millions of workers loose their incomes ?

The Foreign Currency Reserves are owned by the Central Bank, not by the government, their purpose is to stimulate and guarantee trade and to help support the currency. The reserves are not designed or allowed to be used as part of a government's annual budget of spending, it's down to government to find other means to stimulate the economy and support workers etc. Case in point, the government is now going to borrow 1.9 trill. baht, 900 bill. of that will be borrowed from the Central Bank and it will be paid back in due course.

[Is this real]

1 hour ago, Bob12345 said:

You do realize there is more going on besides a lack of tourists, right?

 

Car production is down, exports are down, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty... this has little to do with tourism.

Bob12345, you need to study up on Thailand and it's economics.

 

For the most part, external money coming in is what pays for all those things you mention.  Thailand likes to say tourism plays a small roll.  But, they're wrong.  The restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty because of no tourists from other countries. 

 

[sambum]

2 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

You do realize there is more going on besides a lack of tourists, right?

 

Car production is down, exports are down, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty... this has little to do with tourism.

"restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty... this has little to do with tourism."

 

I would say that where I live, it has EVERYTHING to do with tourism, and I would assume the same would apply to a few other tourist destinations. Where do you think the tourists eat and shop?

•  

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, Is this real said:

Bob12345, you need to study up on Thailand and it's economics.

 

For the most part, external money coming in is what pays for all those things you mention.  Thailand likes to say tourism plays a small roll.  But, they're wrong.  The restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty because of no tourists from other countries. 

 

To be more clear......tourism is 20% of exports, exports are 60% of GDP. It therefore follows that tourism is 12% of GDP. Automotive parts and assembly is a function of exports, restuarants and hotels are a part of tourism.

[sambum]

55 minutes ago, tonysilly said:

What is wrong here, Every year during the Songkron weekend about 150 people die on the road.  every year!  Corona has nothing on Thai Traffic.  Let's open up the country and just be extra careful and safe.  

????

150? Where did you get that figure from? :-

 

THIS YEAR'S Songkran festivities saw a higher death toll – 418 – compared to last year's 390, the Road Safety Centre said yesterday. This year also saw a higher number of injured people with 3,897 cases in 3,724 road accidents. Last year, 3,808 people were injured in 3,690 road crashes.Apr 18, 2020

 

And actually, I thought that Songkran activities had been banned  this year!

Edited June 1, 2020 by sambum

[Chongalulu]

19 minutes ago, Trillian said:

The Thai Baht is not measured against a basket of currencies it is subject to a floating or managed peg against USD,. The Chinese currency is managed against a basket of foreign currencies.

Key Takeaways. The Thai Baht (THB) is the official currency of the Kingdom of Thailand. 1 THB is composed of 100 satangs and are issued by the central bank of Thailand. The Baht used to be pegged to the U.S. dollar but has been floating since 1997.15 Aug 2019

Do try to keep up old chap!

[Lacessit]

31 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

The Thai baht is measured against a basket of other currencies,the country’s of which has also had significant or worse economic damage. It is comparative so no surprise the baht has not fallen back.

News to me, the AUD has increased in value to 21.35 baht against about 20.4 two weeks ago. I'm just wondering what happened to the doomsayers who predicted it would fall to 16.

A lot of businesses in Chiang Rai are opening up surreptitiously, to known customers. They've had enough of no income and government BS. Even the 5000 baht/month is copping flak, because the application is so haphazard.

[RJRS1301]

4 hours ago, talahtnut said:

These corona virus measures could

be considered as a cull of the poor

and infirm.

Unfortunately ill health always has a worse health outcomes and economic impart on the poor

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Others around 60% spoke of the fears of having no chance to save, losing their jobs, increased debt, inability to pay school fees and just plain stress.

I'm waiting for the day schools re-open, Universities follow, then comes the outstretched hand... tuition fees please ! 

[Trillian]

10 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

Key Takeaways. The Thai Baht (THB) is the official currency of the Kingdom of Thailand. 1 THB is composed of 100 satangs and are issued by the central bank of Thailand. The Baht used to be pegged to the U.S. dollar but has been floating since 1997.15 Aug 2019

Do try to keep up old chap!

Is not correct!

 

The Thai Baht is subject to the managed float system which uses inflation and USD as its base. This is because Thailand is an export led economy that is dependent on USD to settle export bills.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyKnowledge/Pages/ExchangeRate.aspx

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_float_regime

 

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Trillian

[TGIR]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Good to hear but the government messaging needs to be much stronger that the threat from this virus isn't nearly over. Yes the step by step opening is good but in the context of understanding that it is conditional.

 

The threat from this virus appears to be unduly overstated.  Meanwhile, thousands of poor Thais are going through unbelievable rough times financially....no work, therefore no money, therefore no food and no end in sight.  Someone needs to get their head out of thier collective asses and start taking care of the people in Thailand !!!!

[PumpkinEater]

Get this country opened up.

Enough of this (fear) insanity!

57 dead from Corona (or underlying causes)...Cmon folks get a grip!

 

[Trillian]

Just now, PumpkinEater said:

Get this country opened up.

Enough of this (fear) insanity!

57 dead from Corona (or underlying causes)...Cmon folks get a grip!

 

Perhaps you've noticed the almost daily reports in the Thai media about Thai citizens returning from abroad and being found to have the virus, just about every day. Just because Thailand has done a good job of isolation is no reason to throw all of that away and open up the country to loads of infected tourists, it would be economic suicide.

[sambum]

35 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Perhaps you've noticed the almost daily reports in the Thai media about Thai citizens returning from abroad and being found to have the virus, just about every day. Just because Thailand has done a good job of isolation is no reason to throw all of that away and open up the country to loads of infected tourists, it would be economic suicide.

And to attract those tourists,. you would need establishments where they could get a meal, drink and enjoy themselves:-

 

"WONDERFUL THAILAND"

[Chongalulu]

52 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Is not correct!

 

The Thai Baht is subject to the managed float system which uses inflation and USD as its base. This is because Thailand is an export led economy that is dependent on USD to settle export bills.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyKnowledge/Pages/ExchangeRate.aspx

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_float_regime

 

 

What you have referenced in that link simply confirms what I said in that the baht is determined by market forces(see below) - the managed float (intervention) only comes into play in emergency situations and also from that first link it is based on a number of trading partners,not just US dollar. So in play at the moment, as I answered ,explains to the OP why the baht has not fallen generally against other currencies.

 Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which comprises currencies of important trading partners - and not just the US Dollar, and (3) any intervention does not go against economic fundamentals which would otherwise lead to further imbalances.

[DrTuner]

Let's see when they get brazen enough to start offering communism as the solution to all their woes.

[Trillian]

9 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

What you have referenced in that link simply confirms what I said in that the baht is determined by market forces(see below) - the managed float (intervention) only comes into play in emergency situations and also from that first link it is based on a number of trading partners,not just US dollar. So in play at the moment, as I answered ,explains to the OP why the baht has not fallen generally against other currencies.

 Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which comprises currencies of important trading partners - and not just the US Dollar, and (3) any intervention does not go against economic fundamentals which would otherwise lead to further imbalances.

There are other clues in the source of your quote:

 

"Since July 1997, Thailand has adopted the managed-float exchange rate regime, which is also consistent with the inflation targeting regime that has been in place since 2000.  Under the inflation targeting framework and the managed-float, the value of the baht is allowed to be determined by market forces, reflecting demand and supply for the baht in the foreign exchange market.

 

Under the managed float, the Bank of Thailand (1) does not target a fixed level for the exchange rate, (2) stands ready to intervene in the case of excess volatility, particularly resulting from speculative capital flows, in a manner consistent with the Bank’s inflation targeting framework.

 

In some instances, however, supply and demand may be at a disequilibrium, leading to excessive volatility in the value of the baht.  The Bank of Thailand aims to ensure that the value of the baht is allowed to fluctuate under the following conditions; (1) the Bank of Thailand stands ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market such that volatility of the exchange rate is at a level that the economy can tolerate, (2) maintaining national competitiveness, as measured through the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), which comprises currencies of important trading partners - and not just the US Dollar, and (3) any intervention does not go against economic fundamentals which would otherwise lead to further imbalances".

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyKnowledge/Pages/ExchangeRate.aspx

 

THB is not a freely convertible currency, it may not be exported or held by overseas banks in all but limited quantities. As a consequence, "market forces" is limited mostly to the supply and demand of THB within Thailand and not by the FOREX market as a whole. Whilst the FOREX market does set a value for THB this is usually agreed by BOT each morning but is often adjusted based on domestic requirements. One of BOT's roles is to protect exporters and since over 60% of Thai export bills are settled in USD, this means ensuring there are no peaks or troughs in the THB/USD exchange rate, all of which is done outside the FOREX market as a whole. BUT, if BOT makes adjustments to the value of THB that the FOREX market doesn't agree with or if BOT implements exchange controls, a secondary offshore market develops, as was the case a few years ago when BOT attempted to stem the FDI flows. 

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialMarkets/ForeignExchangeRegulations/FXRegulation/Pages/default.aspx

 

 

[Nanaplaza666]

3 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

You do realize there is more going on besides a lack of tourists, right?

 

Car production is down, exports are down, restaurants are empty, shopping malls are empty... this has little to do with tourism.

I agree with you to some point but , tourisme is a bigger moneymaker for a lot of poor people that are in this sector and a lot of tourisme income is going to a lot of farm families . I think Bender just means that the percentage from tourisme money to the economy is bigger then they say . 

[Mavideol]

Thailand doesn't have enough paper money, it should print more because if there is not enough of something, the demand for it increases thus appreciated valued. The same appliers to any country currency. Printing more money depreciates the value of the currency, but there's a set back, it will make things more expensive as well, thus creating inflation.

[Mavideol]

from the economics point of vue

By printing money they devalue the currency in three ways.

• Firstly, printing money tends to be inflationary. Higher inflation makes a country less competitive leading to relatively lower demand for their exports and hence currency.
• Secondly, increasing the money supply enables the Central Bank to buy more foreign currency, which drives down the value of the domestic currency.
• Statement of intent. By promising to print money and keep currency low, it discourages speculators from buying that currency as it is less likely to be a good bet.

[Mike k]

7 hours ago, petermik said:

Will the Government here take any notice of the plight of ordinary folks here....the silence is deafening

no they are more concerned with their selves

[Trillian]

4 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

Thailand doesn't have enough paper money, it should print more because if there is not enough of something, the demand for it increases thus appreciated valued. The same appliers to any country currency. Printing more money depreciates the value of the currency, but there's a set back, it will make things more expensive as well, thus creating inflation.

Once again, THB is restricted, it can't be exported or held by overseas banks, the demand for THB is solely from within Thailand.

 

Second, the term printing money means nothing more than increasing the credit limits of banks balance sheets so they can lend more, it doesn't mean actually printing paper bills. That scenario is not applicable in Thailand because there is no need to do so, the Thai banks don't have the need and neither does the government..

[Jester69]

7 hours ago, petermik said:

Will the Government here take any notice of the plight of ordinary folks here....the silence is deafening

I would love to say more but as a Government school teacher ..... I would be in Jail if I spoke the truth!

 

[newatthis]

6 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

Worrying times for all...

Hopefully they pull through and see those lovely smiles again.

You never know. Rumour has it that maybe they can throw some water next month. That’ll cheer ‘em up!

[gamini]

6 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

Even more puzzling, then, why the THB continues to be so strong although the economic situation apparently is in such shambles. Something stinks.

 

 

I thought it would be very obvious that the value of the country's currency depends on it economic performance. The fact is that Thailand's economic performance although bad at the moment is still far better than the UK and America. The UK had its worst economic performance in its history, and what's gonna happen in America nobody knows. I personally think the timeout is going to get stronger and stronger because the country is a huge food producer and tourists will return eventually.

[Blumpie]

This is happening all over the world, not just Thailand.  

Welcome to a recession.  

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, PumpkinEater said:

Get this country opened up.

Enough of this (fear) insanity!

57 dead from Corona (or underlying causes)...Cmon folks get a grip!

 

Nobody is coming to thailand even if they do open it, full stop.

Jeez.  

[Max69xl]

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Good to hear but the government messaging needs to be much stronger that the threat from this virus isn't nearly over. Yes the step by step opening is good but in the context of understanding that it is conditional.

 

What threat? 57 deaths in a country with ~69 million people.