Thai baht must not be a problem for economic recovery, minister says

[webfact]

Thai baht must not be a problem for economic recovery, minister says

 

FILE PHOTO: A Thailand Baht note is seen in this illustration photo June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's finance minister said on Thursday he has asked the central bank to closely monitor the baht <THB=TH> to ensure that it will not be an obstacle for economic recovery after it rose to its highest in more than four months against the U.S. dollar.

 

"The baht must be in line with our rebuilding of the economy," Uttama Savanayana told reporters.

 

"But the level will be how much, I've asked people in charge to look at it," he said.

 

The baht gained 0.9% against the dollar earlier on Thursday.

 

The central bank has said a rapid rise in the baht could affect the country's fragile economic recovery.

 

(Reporting by Kitphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-11

 

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[Mavideol]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

"The baht must be in line with our rebuilding of the economy," Uttama Savanayana told reporters.

thus it should be depreciating to around 33 - 34 to the USD but instead it's appreciating on a daily basis, I know the USD is also depreciating thus affecting the Baht, but Thailand should not expect too much of foreign investment if the baht stays at the current level of 30-31 Baht to USD

[apophyss]

He speak for him,

not for tourist/expat...

[Trillian]

He cares not a jot about expats, why would he, they are not relevant to the economy.

 

And tourists will still come at 31, 30, 29 and probably at 28 also, BOT doesn't have to do anything on that front.

 

[baansgr]

5 minutes ago, Trillian said:

He cares not a jot about expats, why would he, they are not relevant to the economy.

 

And tourists will still come at 31, 30, 29 and probably at 28 also, BOT doesn't have to do anything on that front.

 

I wouldn't be too sure of that...new blood to Thailand has been on a downward spiral for a number of years. ..excluding Chinese

[Trillian]

Just now, baansgr said:

I wouldn't be too sure of that...new blood to Thailand has been on a downward spiral for a number of years. ..excluding Chinese

The problem is the Chinese think Thailand is cheap by comparison, even at 31 or 30 - less than 10% of Chinese people have travelled outside China so there's an almost endless supply and the country is virtually right next door. 

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/global/2019-08/12/content_37500891.htm

[Paul Henry]

More words no action! Don't close the gate after the horse has bolted.

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, Paul Henry said:

More words no action! Don't close the gate after the horse has bolted.

What kind of action can they take when the opponent is the USD?

 

No reason to transform the baht into another version of the Venezuelan bolivar, in order to compete with the self-destructing USD.

[natway09]

Brunolem

Well spoken

[Isaan sailor]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

He cares not a jot about expats, why would he, they are not relevant to the economy.

 

And tourists will still come at 31, 30, 29 and probably at 28 also, BOT doesn't have to do anything on that front.

 

Beg to differ.  Potential tourists may not consider the exchange rates—that’s probably right. But they’re heavily influenced by word of mouth from friends, relatives who live here or have vacationed here.  And consider the news about Thailand, in the western media.  Almost all negative, with some damning comments sections, where permitted.  Word about the overpriced Baht most certainly gets around—faster than Wuhan virus.

[sammieuk1]

How long have we been hearing this monitoring closely drivel about 5 years ????

[Brunolem]

32 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Beg to differ.  Potential tourists may not consider the exchange rates—that’s probably right. But they’re heavily influenced by word of mouth from friends, relatives who live here or have vacationed here.  And consider the news about Thailand, in the western media.  Almost all negative, with some damning comments sections, where permitted.  Word about the overpriced Baht most certainly gets around—faster than Wuhan virus.

Tourists don't think in local currency, they think in their currency which, for most, is not the USD.

 

For example, they will look for a mid-level hotel room with a sea view, at say 3,500 baht, then translate this into 100 euros, then compare this amount with what they would pay on the Riviera, which is 300 euros, and conclude: great!

 

What they will not do is go into the exchange rate history and say: damn, if we'd still have the 2004 exchange rate, the room would cost only 65 euros...forget about it, let's wait for the baht to go back to 52 against the euro!

Edited June 11, 2020 by Brunolem

[kevin612]

Honestly, rising baht will damage the Thai economy. Their products are more expensive now.

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

He cares not a jot about expats, why would he, they are not relevant to the economy.

 

And tourists will still come at 31, 30, 29 and probably at 28 also, BOT doesn't have to do anything on that front.

 

tourists coming? maybe, but not as many and I do think the appreciated baht would make some of them think twice before coming. Thailand should worry/care about expats, I am quite sure we do contribute a lot to their economy, we do spend some huge amounts on living expenses, families, school fees for kids etc., etc.,  wonder if there is a study showing how much expats contribute but the government should start to give a jot about us

[Brunolem]

5 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

What drugs are you on now?  I specifically referred to western tourists—not Chinese tourists.  May I suggest you re-read these posts?

You referred to Western media, but honestly I don't think that one of them is allocating a single line to the baht exchange rate.

 

When they mention Thailand, it's more often than not to remind their citizens how bad the situation is, with regards to prostitution, not the baht! 

[Mavideol]

1 minute ago, Trillian said:

The total financial value of expats in Thailand, to the Thai economy, has been discussed previously and it's just not significant. 

 

I can only reiterate that Chinese people think Thailand is good value, the Chinese I work with are unanimous on this point and there is no doubt.

And tourists will still come at 31, 30, 29 and probably at 28 also, BOT doesn't have to do anything on that front.

 

this is your post, where the heck did you mention Chinese, you said tourists, that includes ALL tourists and I do think the majority of westerners will think twice before coming, as for Chinese, the ones that I am related to, or the ones I deal with or the ones working for me, none have any intentions of visiting Thailand in a very near future, too many bad things happen here to people they know/knew, thus I would bet on them either

[JensenZ]

We can't blame Thailand for this. The recent gain is a result of the USD weakening against most currencies over the last 3 weeks.

[Deli]

Just cancel the THB and substitute it with the Government's most liked currency: RMB.

Makes it easier for everybody, will happen anyhow in the mid future,

[Traubert]

7 minutes ago, Deli said:

Just cancel the THB and substitute it with the Government's most liked currency: RMB.

Makes it easier for everybody, will happen anyhow in the mid future,

OOOOHHHH yes please! ????

[Susco]

The Baht indeed remains strong, but the main reason for the strength against the US$, is because a certain person in the US is reducing his national currency to junk level, all only for his own personal interest, which is remaining out of jail for the next 4 years.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Susco

[metisdead]

Inflammatory posts and replies have been removed.

 

Off topic posts and replies about China have been removed as this topic is not specifically related to China:

 

Thai baht must not be a problem for economic recovery, minister says

 

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's finance minister said on Thursday he has asked the central bank to closely monitor the baht <THB=TH> to ensure that it will not be an obstacle for economic recovery after it rose to its highest in more than four months against the U.S. dollar.

[Isaan sailor]

3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

You referred to Western media, but honestly I don't think that one of them is allocating a single line to the baht exchange rate.

 

When they mention Thailand, it's more often than not to remind their citizens how bad the situation is, with regards to prostitution, not the baht! 

Nah, they talk and write in comments sections about the overpriced Baht, excessive regulations for tourists and expats, and the pro-China government.  Thailand—warts and all.  And believe it or not—this will affect their decision.  So many other cheaper destinations much closer to home.

[Traubert]

20 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Nah, they talk and write in comments sections about the overpriced Baht, excessive regulations for tourists and expats, and the pro-China government.  Thailand—warts and all.  And believe it or not—this will affect their decision.  So many other cheaper destinations much closer to home.

Show us an example then?

[Matzzon]

As a son, I would be tremendously sad that my father has to be graphically connected to a headline that speaks so much impossibility.

[Trillian]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Show us an example then?

Morecambe..

[Trillian]

I'm beginning to think that a strong Baht isn't really a huge problem for the Central Bank, despite the various announcements on the subject  but I wonder at what point it would be so. They're clearly OK with 30.X and in the past they've even allowed 29.X, sure, exporters start to make noises at 30 but I'm not sure if that's because they can't sell at that price or whether it's because they get less Baht in return. I suppose exporters must be a bit like expats who moan about the exchange rate.....remember when the exchange rate was xx.xx!

 

Since energy and transportation costs are lower as a result of the strong Baht, what's not to like. I think the case has already been made that the exchange rate isn't a deal breaker when it comes to many foreign tourists deciding whether to holiday in Thailand or not. And since the major contributor to tourism currently is the Chinese and many of them think that Thailand is good value, I get the feeling that BOT will continue to sit on its hands and do very little. Of course if the USD continues to slide there will come a point where they will have to act, but at what point that is I can't begin to imagine, it doesn't appear that will be at 30 though.

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's finance minister said on Thursday he has asked the central bank to closely monitor the baht <THB=TH> to ensure that it will not be an obstacle for economic recovery after it rose to its highest in more than four months against the U.S. dollar.

Which is exactly what it is doing and has been doing for the last couple of years, the economy had been sliding for a long time before Corvid even came along, it was affecting trade and tourism...

everyone has said they would monitor it, but as yet no-one has done anything to reduce it's impact.

[Trillian]

I just read for the first time some details of where the THB 1 trill. borrowings will come from to pay for the economic stimulus.

 

About one quarter of the amount has already been raised, THB 170 bill. from the sale of promissory notes, THB 50 bill. from the sale of savings bonds and THB 40 bill. from the sale of government bonds.

 

Lending sources for the remainder are still being examined. One interesting option that has been mentioned is the possibility of foreign currency loans and discussions are being held currently with the Asian Development Bank. This is interesting because it would mark a major departure from sourcing loans in THB to avoid foreign currency risk, the cause of the 1997 crash and something that's always at the front of peoples minds here - currently less than 4% of all government lending is not denominated in THB.

 

The other reason it's interesting is because the Finance Ministry is looking at options for borrowing in the context of THB strength, borrowing in USD would help cap the rise of THB.

 

An additional THB 900 bill. will come from BOT's Foreign Currency Reserves holdings, I estimate that will reduce those holdings to about USD 190 bill.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/thailand-says-rising-yields-no-bar-to-32-billion-borrowing-plan

 

 

 

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

 

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

 

About one quarter of the amount has already been raised, THB 170 bill. from the sale of promissory notes, THB 50 bill. from the sale of savings bonds and THB 40 bill. from the sale of government bonds.

 

So those were probably the 50 billions I mentioned earlier, sold last month.

 

I wonder why they don't raise much more on the local market since the 50 billions sold like hot cakes in a matter of days.

 

Otherwise they would probably have no problem selling on international markets, with all this liquidity in search of returns unavailable in the West...

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

 

So those were probably the 50 billions I mentioned earlier, sold last month.

 

I wonder why they don't raise much more on the local market since the 50 billions sold like hot cakes in a matter of days.

 

Otherwise they would probably have no problem selling on international markets, with all this liquidity in search of returns unavailable in the West...

I think there are two reasons. The first is the size of the total borrowings which would put upwards pressure on the forward yield curve. The second is the potential to use that borrowing to dampen the rise of THB and this is currently being explored. Another factor to keep in mind is that a lot of governments are now issuing bonds to pay for virus/stimulus  related reasons so the market is becoming flooded.