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[Gonzo the Face]

I cannot seem to find any information on....What is going on with the Baht???

Since the 1st of April the baht is stronger than the US$ by 1.68 B..... than the Euro by 1.o1 B .... and stronger

than the Pound by 1.72 B. 

What is causing all of this???

[JulieM]

US currency is weaker due to the Federal Reserve printing a lot of new money. Dollar was slightly higher yesterday as investors fled the stock market (6.5% decline) and, for some reason, put money into the US dollar instead of gold.

Edited June 12, 2020 by JulieM

[PerkinsCuthbert]

Mostly a weak dollar, but other factors in play too, such reduced demand locally for dollars from exporters, but there's enough strength for the BoT to finally start making noises, which should eventually precipitate a weakening of the Baht. 

[Dante99]

Whim, fancy, voodoo, fortune telling, reading tea leaves, manipulations but very very little to do with real life economics. Somebody(s) created and sold a story.

[Gonzo the Face]

All may be true, as mentioned re the dollar.... but what about the Euro and the Pound?

 

[beau thai]

money flowing into thailand apparently due to healthy balance of trade, stable political environment and good covid results. dont shoot the messenger.

Some suggest it is being held artifially high to help the very wealthy thais who want to invest (more) overseas at favourable rates.  but its killing exports.

[JulieM]

Same answer for the Euro and the Pound:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ecb-qe/ecb-primes-money-printing-gun-to-combat-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D0J4

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-crisis-truth-eu-union-financial-rescue

[Trillian]

Weak USD due to high covid debt and unrest, stronger THB because of the opposite - result is capital inflows to the tune of USD 189 mill. in the first week of June alone, THB seen as a safer more stable and more appreciating currency than USD. Impact of strong THB on Thai exports remains unclear at this stage, more likely exports impacted by renewed China/US trade rumblings and supply chains still disconnected.

[OneeyedJohn]

Well, if the Baht keeps on like this against the £ then I am going to have to find something illegal to do to support the level of lifestyle I have become accustomed to.????

[alacrity]

Politics. Stand Strong and stuff will re-align later this year.

[EricTh]

@Gonzo the Face

 

You're not going to like the answer but it's due to an expectations of a quick recovery in the tourism economy once the Chinese tourists come back.

 

Thai baht has also strengthened against the other Asian currencies.

 

It's not a weakening of only US dollar like others said.

Edited June 12, 2020 by EricTh

[moontang]

Villa Market is selling California strawberries for 429 THB per pound.  Even at 80 THB to the Dollar, that would be 400% more than I would ever pay in the US.  Serious disconnect in the land of the own foot shooters.

[Trillian]

31 minutes ago, moontang said:

Villa Market is selling California strawberries for 429 THB per pound.  Even at 80 THB to the Dollar, that would be 400% more than I would ever pay in the US.  Serious disconnect in the land of the own foot shooters.

What do you expect, a top end niche grocery store selling specialty imported products, in the capital, imported products that are subject to import tax and tariffs to protect the home market.

[moontang]

13 minutes ago, Trillian said:

What do you expect, a top end niche grocery store selling specialty imported products, in the capital, imported products that are subject to import tax and tariffs to protect the home market.

If you think that is top end, you need to get out more.  1300%?  The cheese for 145 for 8 is even has a 1 GBP sticker on it..very basic, institutional quality at triple price.  Was Hua Hin, also.

[Trillian]

7 minutes ago, moontang said:

If you think that is top end, you need to get out more.  1300%?  The cheese for 145 for 8 is even has a 1 GBP sticker on it..very basic, institutional quality at triple price.  Was Hua Hin, also.

I think you're probably better off trying to compare the cost of imported strawberries to the cost of domestic strawberries which are also quite expensive. I imagine the idea is to protect the home market by surcharging imports based on the cost of home grown strawberries, trying to compare against the price you would pay in another currency, in another country probably is pointless. EDIT: I'm told by my colleague that local strawberries are 100 to 250 baht a kilo., based on the size, compared to 860 per kilo for CA strawberries, doesn't sound to unreasonable.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Trillian

[dingdongrb]

......and I thought 39 AUD was a little too much for a kilo of celery  ????

 

 

[moontang]

38 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I think you're probably better off trying to compare the cost of imported strawberries to the cost of domestic strawberries which are also quite expensive. I imagine the idea is to protect the home market by surcharging imports based on the cost of home grown strawberries, trying to compare against the price you would pay in another currency, in another country probably is pointless. EDIT: I'm told by my colleague that local strawberries are 100 to 250 baht a kilo., based on the size, compared to 860 per kilo for CA strawberries, doesn't sound to unreasonable.

Is it a global economy or not?  And a pound at 429 is more like 944 per KG.  I just checked my IGA..they are 1.50 us pp, so close to 100 THB per KG..but milk at 16 THB per liter?  Or fillet mignon about 450 per KG?  

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, moontang said:

Is it a global economy or not?  And a pound at 429 is more like 944 per KG.  I just checked my IGA..they are 1.50 us pp, so close to 100 THB per KG..but milk at 16 THB per liter?  Or fillet mignon about 450 per KG?  

I don't think it is a global economy, I think every country has its own, it would be odd if the same goods cost the same price everywhere in the world.

 

You're showing prices for goods that are part of the US economy, a different currency and a different everything to Thailand. The US is a highly competitive market and it's also much much bigger. Thailand is far smaller, it restricts imports and it adds tariffs to most products, comparing the two is not apples and apples or even strawberries or whatevers.

[moontang]

17 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I don't think it is a global economy, I think every country has its own, it would be odd if the same goods cost the same price everywhere in the world.

 

You're showing prices for goods that are part of the US economy, a different currency and a different everything to Thailand. The US is a highly competitive market and it's also much much bigger. Thailand is far smaller, it restricts imports and it adds tariffs to most products, comparing the two is not apples and apples or even strawberries or whatevers.

IOW, they are insecure cheaters.  Hua Hin epitomizes their willingness to charge top price, but simply can't deliver top quality or service.  So it is kind of like Mexican restaurants, the best ones are rarely the expensive ones..Was at the mall today..lots of feet shuffling and acting like they only have 45 degrees of peripheral vision..and here comes the roach crawling out of a food court vendor...

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, moontang said:

IOW, they are insecure cheaters.  Hua Hin epitomizes their willingness to charge top price, but simply can't deliver top quality or service.  So it is kind of like Mexican restaurants, the best ones are rarely the expensive ones..Was at the mall today..lots of feet shuffling and acting like they only have 45 degrees of peripheral vision..and here comes the roach crawling out of a food court vendor...

Yes, we agree on those things.

[Dante99]

6 hours ago, PerkinsCuthbert said:

such reduced demand locally for dollars from exporters,

?

 

[PerkinsCuthbert]

4 minutes ago, Dante99 said:

?

 

It's basic economics and trade.

[Trillian]

This may help explain:

 

https://www.exim.go.th/en/Products_Services/Trade-Finance/Export-Credit/Export-Credit.aspx

[Dante99]

14 minutes ago, PerkinsCuthbert said:

It's basic economics and trade.

"reduced demand locally for dollars from exporters"?

 

How do local exporters create demand for dollars?  They are exporting Thai goods, selling overseas for dollars and thus bring back dollars to exchange for baht, don't they?  They do not need to buy dollars anywhere, they get them from selling goods and are in Thailand net sellers of those dollars.  They sell them because they need Baht to pay for their local operations.  If they are part of demand for dollars, they would be buying dollars, not selling.  Importers need dollars to buy stuff overseas to import it into Thailand.  Or not?  If not, why not?

 

[Trillian]

Only 60% of Thai export bills are in USD, the rest is a choice of currency swaps, YEN or the currency of the importer, it's the exporters choice to create demand for USD or not - EXIM is the export/import bank that facilitates trade and arranges export financing.

 

And the exporters no longer need to bring back the USD, they can hold it offshore for more than a year and now they can even invest overseas and wait for a favorable exchange rate.

 

Thai importers either settle in USD or in the currency of the selling country, they create demand for USD but it's far lower than the volume of USD received from export bill settlements... that's the trade surplus aspect of the current account.

[daveAustin]

Smoke and mirrors: gov paid out virtually nothing to help the people + dubious covid testing/results + 'stable' authoritarian regimes = everything is awesome! 

[orang37]

Humanity vs. Covid-19

 

U$A vs. China

 

Humanity vs. Global Warming

 

for starters ...

 

~o:37;

 

 

[Rama]

Thai government said it was money coming from outside Thailand into the SET and Thai bonds in the first 2 weeks of June. In other words, Int'l arbitrage traders were trading into Thai baht investments out of dollars for short term relief from a perceived weakness in the dollar. If the government wanted to stop it, they could put some kind of limit as to how long an int'l investor from abroad had to keep their money in the SET or in Thai bonds before moving out, say 6 months in stock purchases and 1 year on bond purchases, and not blanket purchases only in the name of the int'l houses  doing the buying, but the individual speculators and companies. Int'l speculators who have the money to run rough shod over small economies for short term arbitrage gains without any thought it what it does to the economy in the long run or the locals. They're worse than guys coming from abroad looking for a 2 week holiday in Pattaya. 

[Trillian]

3 hours ago, Rama said:

Thai government said it was money coming from outside Thailand into the SET and Thai bonds in the first 2 weeks of June. In other words, Int'l arbitrage traders were trading into Thai baht investments out of dollars for short term relief from a perceived weakness in the dollar. If the government wanted to stop it, they could put some kind of limit as to how long an int'l investor from abroad had to keep their money in the SET or in Thai bonds before moving out, say 6 months in stock purchases and 1 year on bond purchases, and not blanket purchases only in the name of the int'l houses  doing the buying, but the individual speculators and companies. Int'l speculators who have the money to run rough shod over small economies for short term arbitrage gains without any thought it what it does to the economy in the long run or the locals. They're worse than guys coming from abroad looking for a 2 week holiday in Pattaya. 

The last time they put a minimum time limit on onshore investments it created a second  offshore market for THB, that's not good.

[opalred]

this govt borrowed huge from china and interest  payments are extraordinary / so need to keep baht strong