Thailand had the world's first coronavirus case outside China. Here's how it avoided disaster

[owl sees all]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

I suspicious the Aussie numbers. 

 

Not wear mask, lot obesity, Chinese tourist, old care home. 

 

You belive that? Only 102 dead? 

Hmmmm

 

Greek one suspicious same. Near Italy, France etc 

Hmmmm 

 

 

 

It's obviously the Lao Khao factor.

 

In Isaan, 70% of the adult population drink Lao Khao every day. I didn't hear of anyone catching the C-19.

[bluesofa]

9 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

It's obviously the Lao Khao factor.

In Isaan, 70% of the adult population drink Lao Khao every day. I didn't hear of anyone catching the C-19.

Surely it's obvious. Lao Khao works by forcing a social distancing regime: It gets you so drunk you can't stand up and go anywhere.

[snowgard]

15 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Are you suggesting that the Thai government are lying, ...

???? ???? ????
For sure not!!! It give a lot of people who strict believe what they think and say!!! And some dance in white clothes around trees and wait that the ghost will show the lottery numbers.

[bluesofa]

1 minute ago, snowgard said:

???? ???? ????
For sure not!!! It give a lot of people who strict believe what they think and say!!! And some dance in white clothes around trees and wait that the ghost will show the lottery numbers.

Lottery numbers! Ha ha!

I'll give you odds of 10-1 that gambling is a mugs game.

[Logosone]

8 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

 

excess deaths, perhaps, but there is no requirement that thailand, or any country, must have x number of deaths per month.  the numbers are not always consistent.  there are blips that even in a pandemic may simply be coincidence. 

 

the (alleged) excess deaths statistic by itself is interesting, but really proves nothing other than there were more deaths that expected according to one specific method of accounting.  if you're going to claim for certain they were caused by the virus, then some evidence for that is necessary.

 

are there any statistics showing a breakdown of recorded causes of death?  is this a case of reading what you want into a number you find on the interwebs.  i recall 21 million dropped cellphone subscriptions was pretty hot for a couple weeks.

Yes, that could be one explanation, Thailand, just happened to have an increase of 2400 deaths starting exactly at the time of the pandemic.

 

However,  you have to factor in that this figure of excess deaths starts at the time of the pandemic

 

You have to factor in that Thailand, a country of mass tourism, many from China, is telling you there were 58 deaths. With a population of 70 million people. Which frankly common sense would tell you is obviously unlikely.

 

You have to factor in that Thailand did not test 99% of its population so it has no way of knowing whatsoever how many died of Covid19. If you don't test for Covid 19, how can you attribute deaths to Covid 19? You can't.

 

You have to factor in that excess deaths are now an accepted way to estimate the true Covid19 death toll more accurately. The Economist is doing it, the BBC is doing it, the New York Times is doing it. This is not some internet conspiracy to attack Thailand.

 

You have to factor in that almost every country currently has experienced significant increases in excess mortality. That just so happen to coincide with the duration of this pandemic. Just like in Thailand.

 

In some transparent countries, like France, just over 100% of the excess mortality can be attributed to Covid 19. In countries like Belgium, which clearly overcounted Covid 19 deaths, it is over 115% that can be attributed to Covid 19 deaths. In those countries which have not tested enough on a meaningful scale, like Indonesia, you can see that the excess deaths are not covered 100% by the Covid 19 deaths. That just means they did not test enough. It's obvious.

 

If you look at Thailand's road deaths by the way, 6000 around the half year mark in 2020 when many estimated 24000 for the year, you can see that up to 6000 road deaths did not happen in 2020. It is more than possible, indeed likely, that many thousands of non-occuring road deaths kept the excess death figure much lower than it really would have been in Thailand due to Covid19, thus distorting the figure. It is perfectly possible that the actual excess deaths from Covid 19 are in the range of 3000-6000.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

As has been pointed out the hand washing increase would also have decreased the excess death figure from other viral diseases. So the excess death figure attributable to Covid19 gets larger still.

 

Of course if you don't test 99% of the population the figures of death from Covid19 will be miniscule. The same happened in Lesotho, Nigeria, Uganda. Nobody in their right mind would celebrate any of these countries as "success" stories.

 

Rather they should be lamented as yet another instance of a country that made no real effort to test, is not transparent and can not give you any credible figures.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Logosone

[from the home of CC]

13 hours ago, Mung said:

I looked around Hua Hin throughout January/February, and there were barely any people wearing masks at all. That only became popular heading into March which would have been nearly 3 months for the virus to spread. That is enough time to spread across the entire country considering the R0 potential 

I started wearing mine in Feb. and i noticed many Thais start then too (or even earlier). Maybe was a little more aware due to business in the mall.

[jollyhangmon]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that could be one explanation, Thailand, just happened to have an increase of 2400 deaths starting exactly at the time of the pandemic.

 

However,  you have to factor in that this figure of excess deaths starts at the time of the pandemic

 

You have to factor in that Thailand, a country of mass tourism, many from China, is telling you there were 58 deaths. With a population of 70 million people. Which frankly common sense would tell you is obviously unlikely.

 

You have to factor in that Thailand did not test 99% of its population so it has no way of knowing whatsoever how many died of Covid19. If you don't test for Covid 19, how can you attribute deaths to Covid 19? You can't.

 

You have to factor in that excess deaths are now an accepted way to estimate the true Covid19 death toll more accurately. The Economist is doing it, the BBC is doing it, the New York Times is doing it. This is not some internet conspiracy to attack Thailand.

 

You have to factor in that almost every country currently has experienced significant increases in excess mortality. That just so happen to coincide with the duration of this pandemic. Just like in Thailand.

 

In some transparent countries, like France, just over 100% of the excess mortality can be attributed to Covid 19. In countries like Belgium, which clearly overcounted Covid 19 deaths, it is over 115% that can be attributed to Covid 19 deaths. In those countries which have not tested enough on a meaningful scale, like Indonesia, you can see that the excess deaths are not covered 100% by the Covid 19 deaths. That just means they did not test enough. It's obvious.

 

If you look at Thailand's road deaths by the way, 6000 around the half year mark in 2020 when many estimated 24000 for the year, you can see that up to 6000 road deaths did not happen in 2020. It is more than possible, indeed likely, that many thousands of non-occuring road deaths kept the excess death figure much lower than it really would have been in Thailand due to Covid19, thus distorting the figure. It is perfectly possible that the actual excess deaths from Covid 19 are in the range of 3000-6000.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

As has been pointed out the hand washing increase would also have decreased the excess death figure from other viral diseases. So the excess death figure attributable to Covid19 gets larger still.

 

... damn excellent summary sir, if I may say so.

However, you could just as well sing that to the next best wall as far as certain posters are concerned as there's way too much abstract thinking as well as logic (!) involved, necessarily ... 

 

[4MyEgo]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

I suspicious the Aussie numbers. 

 

Not wear mask, lot obesity, Chinese tourist, old care home. 

 

You belive that? Only 102 dead? 

Hmmmm

 

Greek one suspicious same. Near Italy, France etc 

Hmmmm 

 

 

 

Yes, I believe that only 102 are deceased in Australia from Covid-19 if that's what they say and yes, most Australians aren't wearing masks.

 

Some interesting statistics for you to work out who is telling the truth, noting Australia does not have any borders that join other countries, so no one can come in, unless they come in under the radar by boat, Thailand has 4 borders, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia, suffice to say people can walk across and go undetected at certain points along the almost 5,000 kilometres that borders Thailand with those countries mentioned above.

 

To date 7,521 people have been infected in Australia according to the (CSSE) with 103 deceased. Australia has a population of 24.99 million people. What does the fatality to infection rate work out to be, about 1.37% according to my workings ?

 

Australia had 9 million visitors in 2019.

 

To date 3,156 people have been infected in Thailand according to the (CSSE) with 58 deceased. Thailand has a population of 69.43 million people. What does the fatality to infection rate work out to be, about 1.83% according to my workings ?

 

Thailand had 39 million visitors in 2019.

 

Australia as mentioned above has a population of 24.99 million and had 9 million tourists for 2019 that's 36% of its population.

 

Thailand as mentioned above has a population of 69.43 million and had 39 million tourists for 2019 that's 56% of its population.

 

That's 20 million more tourists/visitors than Australia, yet in has a lessor infection rate that Australia, e.g. 0.0045% while Australia had 0.0290%.

 

Well, all I can say is that those masks must really work, although I can't understand why the infection rate isn't far greater in Australia because they aren't wearing the masks.

 

Anyone with half a penny up top can see that with Thailand having 20 million extra tourists than Australia would be far more exposed to the virus and that the infection rate would be far higher than Australia, also given the countries that border Thailand vs no countries bordering Australia, that said, as long as you feel assured that the Thai government is telling you the truth, I will keep believing what I believe, based on my own research above, not what someone wants me to believe, as for believing the figures that Australia have produced, I have no reason to doubt the numbers provided as Australia has a democratically elected government, the military never puts its nose into politics to take control of power and has no hidden agenda to run the country by switching it's implied use to defend the country, to then rule the country.

 

As for Greece, Italy, France etc etc, I haven't researched those countries, but will say this, I have heard other countries reporting incorrectly, then coming out and stating that they reported the numbers incorrectly, but that is not what I am discussing here, I am discussing how the numbers of infected here in Thailand are so low compared to Australia, even when Thailand had 20 million MORE, not 1 or 2 or 3 million, 20 million MORE people visit Thailand, most from China around 8 million, and you want me to believe Thailand has less infections and deaths than Australia, all because people wear masks, or the Thai (military) government says so. 

 

Hmmm

Edited June 24, 2020 by 4MyEgo

[Anton9]

You people still believe the first case outside of China was in Thailand in January.

This stuff been with us much longer than that, at least since November 2019.

[JCP108]

4 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

You people still believe the first case outside of China was in Thailand in January.

This stuff been with us much longer than that, at least since November 2019.

If it got to Europe early enough to show up in tests of their sewers in the Fall of 2019, seems like that would suggest that it would be in Thailand by the middle of the year if the origin was China. If you go look at the raw data file provided with that NYT article for the earlier months, it appears that there were significant increases in total monthly deaths in Thailand starting in May of 2019. For instance, average out the data for May for the provided years (2015-2018) then subtract the average from the reported amount for May 2019 to see if that data shows an increase. 

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, jollyhangmon said:

 

... damn excellent summary sir, if I may say so.

However, you could just as well sing that to the next best wall as far as certain posters are concerned as there's way too much abstract thinking as well as logic (!) involved, necessarily ... 

 

Thank you.

 

I view it like a puzzle, and on the balance of probabilities it looks more likely than not that Thailand's excess deaths are, like in all other countries, a result of hidden Covid 19 deaths. It just seems the most likely explanation to me.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Yes, I believe that only 102 are deceased in Australia from Covid-19 if that's what they say and yes, most Australians aren't wearing masks.

 

Some interesting statistics for you to work out who is telling the truth, noting Australia does not have any borders that join other countries, so no one can come in, unless they come in under the radar by boat, Thailand has 4 borders, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia, suffice to say people can walk across and go undetected at certain points along the almost 5,000 kilometres that borders Thailand with those countries mentioned above.

 

To date 7,521 people have been infected in Australia according to the (CSSE) with 103 deceased. Australia has a population of 24.99 million people. What does the fatality to infection rate work out to be, about 1.37% according to my workings ?

 

Australia had 9 million visitors in 2019.

 

To date 3,156 people have been infected in Thailand according to the (CSSE) with 58 deceased. Thailand has a population of 69.43 million people. What does the fatality to infection rate work out to be, about 1.83% according to my workings ?

 

Thailand had 39 million visitors in 2019.

 

Australia as mentioned above has a population of 24.99 million and had 9 million tourists for 2019 that's 36% of its population.

 

Thailand as mentioned above has a population of 69.43 million and had 39 million tourists for 2019 that's 56% of its population.

 

That's 20 million more tourists/visitors than Australia, yet in has a lessor infection rate that Australia, e.g. 0.0045% while Australia had 0.0290%.

 

Well, all I can say is that those masks must really work, although I can't understand why the infection rate isn't far greater in Australia because they aren't wearing the masks.

 

Anyone with half a penny up top can see that with Thailand having 20 million extra tourists than Australia would be far more exposed to the virus and that the infection rate would be far higher than Australia, also given the countries that border Thailand vs no countries bordering Australia, that said, as long as you feel assured that the Thai government is telling you the truth, I will keep believing what I believe, based on my own research above, not what someone wants me to believe, as for believing the figures that Australia have produced, I have no reason to doubt the numbers provided as Australia has a democratically elected government, the military never puts its nose into politics to take control of power and has no hidden agenda to run the country by switching it's implied use to defend the country, to then rule the country.

 

As for Greece, Italy, France etc etc, I haven't researched those countries, but will say this, I have heard other countries reporting incorrectly, then coming out and stating that they reported the numbers incorrectly, but that is not what I am discussing here, I am discussing how the numbers of infected here in Thailand are so low compared to Australia, even when Thailand had 20 million MORE, not 1 or 2 or 3 million, 20 million MORE people visit Thailand, most from China around 8 million, and you want me to believe Thailand has less infections and deaths than Australia, all because people wear masks, or the Thai (military) government says so. 

 

Hmmm

Australia, like New Zeland, is a very special case.

 

As can be seen here Australia, like New Zealand, has tested more than most other countries. There can be no question that Australia has made a greater effort than most in testing.

 

In addition, due to their location at the end of the world Australia has had more time to put in place policies to contain the pandemic. Due to its geography and make-up Australia has it more easy than most countries to stop unwanted visitors from entering.

 

We saw this with the Spanish flu pandemic as well where Australia, uniquely, was among the few to not be greatly affected.

 

Given its strong testing effort Australia was able to find and isolate carriers and defeated the virus early.

 

Once can trust Australia's figures. One can not trust Thailand's figures. Rwanda actually tested more than Thailand.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Logosone

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

If it got to Europe early enough to show up in tests of their sewers in the Fall of 2019, seems like that would suggest that it would be in Thailand by the middle of the year if the origin was China. If you go look at the raw data file provided with that NYT article for the earlier months, it appears that there were significant increases in total monthly deaths in Thailand starting in May of 2019. For instance, average out the data for May for the provided years (2015-2018) then subtract the average from the reported amount for May 2019 to see if that data shows an increase. 

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

Some further info and data from that link from the New York Times article re Thailand:

 

If you look at the data in the .csv  for the article for the last four months of each year in the data set (2015-2018). Found this:

 

Averages for those years for all deaths for September, October, November, and December, respectively: 37,739, 40,528, 39,031,  and 39,734.

 

The same months in 2019 reported: 41,737, 43,589, 40,480, and 44,340.

 

That is a raw increase of 3,998, 3,061, 1,449, and 4,606.

 

As a percentage of the average, those raw increases represent monthly increases of: 11%, 7.5%, 4%, and 11.6%.

 

If we add the data for the last quarter together, the average monthly would be: 39,258. The total raw increase of the last quarter of 2019 compared to that average is: 13,114. That's an 8.3% increase for the last quarter. 

 

We still don't know if their data source includes Bangkok. If it doesn't, then the real numbers must be even higher. 

 

So, seems like things bumped up earlier than openly discussed and one would assume the MOPH knew this data and did nothing for months. 

 

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

[4MyEgo]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Australia, like New Zeland, is a very special case.

 

As can be seen here Australia, like New Zealand, has tested more than most other countries. There can be no question that Australia has made a greater effort that most in testing.

 

In addition, due to their location at the end of the world Australia has had more time to put in place policies to contain the pandemic. Due to its geography and make-up Australia has it more easy than most countries to stop unwanted visitors from entering.

 

We saw this with the Spanish flu pandemic as well where Australia, uniquely, was among the few to not be greatly affected.

 

Given its strong testing effort Australia was able to find and isolate carriers and defeated the virus early.

 

Once can trust Australia's figures. One can not trust Thailand's figures. Rwanda actually tested more than Thailand.

Agreed, but try getting Yinn to take her blinkers off, the horse has bolted a long time ago ????

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

Agreed, but try getting Yinn to take her blinkers off, the horse has bolted a long time ago ????

 

Yinn just wants to believe. She wants to believe Thailand really only has 58 cases. Many Thais want to believe this, our government is testing a lot and its wise policies protected us, with this wonderful secret Asian weapon, the mask.

 

Unfortunately none of this narrative stands up to scrutiny. I don't understand how journalists can take the figures provided by Thailand at face value. 58 deaths in a population of 70,000,000. When it is clear they have not tested 99% of the population. It is obvious what is happening in Thailand. Same as in Nigeria, Lesotho, Uganda, a lack of testing results in fairytale numbers that have no correlation to reality.

 

Of course some people believe in fairytales, amulets and such. Those people will say Thailand is a fantastic success story. I say it is a black hole where nobody made a real effort to test and the excess deaths tell a wholly different story, namely that none of the policies of Thailand have made the country a special success and the death toll is pretty much like in many other places.

 

I'm of course very happy many people believe Thailand is a great success, as it means hopefully that the restrictions will be gone sooner and tourists can come back and Thais can live a normal life.

 

However, given the insistence on keeping the restrictions in place it looks like not even the Thai leadership believes its own numbers. 

 

 

[Mung]

4 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

I started wearing mine in Feb. and i noticed many Thais start then too (or even earlier). Maybe was a little more aware due to business in the mall.

I remember being at a 7/11 in early February (with a mask on) and looking around, nobody was really wearing them at all. I left Thailand then mainly because of how poorly they were handing the situation, little did I know where I was heading would end up having 10x more cases 

[Stadtler]

On 6/23/2020 at 4:07 AM, 4MyEgo said:

You can thank the humid weather and Thais having good vitamin D levels due to being exposed to the sun,

Wait a minute "pahhhhhrdner," how they can they high vitamin D levels when they shun sunlight?

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, Stadtler said:

Wait a minute "pahhhhhrdner," how they can they high vitamin D levels when they shun sunlight?

Through diet.

 

That's why Swedes have some of the best Vitamin D figures. They eat a lot of fish.

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Many Thais want to believe this, our government is testing a lot and its wise policies protected us, with this wonderful secret Asian weapon, the mask.

Successful propaganda. It starts right from anuban and continues through Thai life. It's been perfected in decades, if not centuries.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Successful propaganda. It starts right from anuban and continues through Thai life. It's been perfected in decades, if not centuries.

A dead give away are the loudspeakers in the villages. 

 

The cars with loudspeakers.

 

The less educated the easier to sell propaganda.

[4MyEgo]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yinn just wants to believe. She wants to believe Thailand really only has 58 cases. Many Thais want to believe this, our government is testing a lot and its wise policies protected us, with this wonderful secret Asian weapon, the mask.

 

Unfortunately none of this narrative stands up to scrutiny. I don't understand how journalists can take the figures provided by Thailand at face value. 58 deaths in a population of 70,000,000. When it is clear they have not tested 99% of the population. It is obvious what is happening in Thailand. Same as in Nigeria, Lesotho, Uganda, a lack of testing results in fairytale numbers that have no correlation to reality.

 

Of course some people believe in fairytales, amulets and such. Those people will say Thailand is a fantastic success story. I say it is a black hole where nobody made a real effort to test and the excess deaths tell a wholly different story, namely that none of the policies of Thailand have made the country a special success and the death toll is pretty much like in many other places.

 

I'm of course very happy many people believe Thailand is a great success, as it means hopefully that the restrictions will be gone sooner and tourists can come back and Thais can live a normal life.

 

However, given the insistence on keeping the restrictions in place it looks like not even the Thai leadership believes its own numbers. 

 

 

Strangest thing was watching a video that was taken down however was put up on another platform as they are quick in shutting video's down if they don't go along with the mainstream media's take which is one sided.

 

It said that the testing is all wrong, it was made up from the first 2003 virus which is apparently 80% comparable to Covi-19, but they can't say that because it was originally taken from a patient in 2003 with a different strain of the virus, and you can't match the RNA from a chimpanzee to a human because it is 96% if you follow.

 

So everyone who is being tested or 4 out of 5 tested comes back with positive from our own internal stuff, that said, it is more likely to be 1 out of 5 who have it, no one has done any other studies on it, no one has taken a sample from 2019/2020 to make up a proper test, no one challenges who made the test in 2003, everyone just uses the test and moves forward.

 

If you want the video, I can hunt it down, its from a credible doctor, physiatrist, who has also worked in forensics, it goes for about 55 minutes, call it a conspiracy theory if you like, anything outside the norm that we are fed is deemed a conspiracy theory these days, meaning there are no two sides to the coin, believe us, we are the government.

 

He talks about them wanting to create the panic, to get everyone vaccinated with the vaccination being genetically modified so as to penetrated our cells easily so as to control us.....I will just stick to plain common sense and stick my head back in the sand and do my own research as I have had enough brain damage from all sides, with fals numbers of infections, deaths, surface contamination, masks etc etc etc.

 

Life's too short, but I do believe we are all being rounded up, finger prints, bio-metrics, facial recognition, etc etc etc, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if vaccinations were made compulsory to complete the picture, by the time it gets to me, no one will be controlling me, because I will be past my used by date, I hope ????

 

[Logosone]

There are legitimate questions about testing, how accurate they are. None of the tests are 100% accurate. I understand the best tests have an accuracy of over 90%.

 

Clearly there can be no global conspiracy to get people vaccinated, too many countries, too many people.

 

But of course the virus is being used by every interest group to further its aims. The left will use it to increase social spending, the right will use it to curb immigration, BME groups will use it to show they're disadvantaged, indeed feminists are using it to bemoan domestic violence, I saw Greta Thunberg is using it to argue you can act on climate change. 

 

Of course people will spin the virus to their own interest. On a broad spectrum this virus will be used to justify all kinds of prejudices. We saw the Chinese Thai like Anutin or Spotlight Thailand use it to air their anti-foreigner sentiments.

 

People will be misled easily, like Yinn was misled by these fairytale figures. We need to help them and tell them the truth.

[bluesofa]

27 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Strangest thing was watching a video that was taken down however was put up on another platform as they are quick in shutting video's down if they don't go along with the mainstream media's take which is one sided.

 

It said that the testing is all wrong, it was made up from the first 2003 virus which is apparently 80% comparable to Covi-19, but they can't say that because it was originally taken from a patient in 2003 with a different strain of the virus, and you can't match the RNA from a chimpanzee to a human because it is 96% if you follow.

 

So everyone who is being tested or 4 out of 5 tested comes back with positive from our own internal stuff, that said, it is more likely to be 1 out of 5 who have it, no one has done any other studies on it, no one has taken a sample from 2019/2020 to make up a proper test, no one challenges who made the test in 2003, everyone just uses the test and moves forward.

 

If you want the video, I can hunt it down, its from a credible doctor, physiatrist, who has also worked in forensics, it goes for about 55 minutes, call it a conspiracy theory if you like, anything outside the norm that we are fed is deemed a conspiracy theory these days, meaning there are no two sides to the coin, believe us, we are the government.

 

He talks about them wanting to create the panic, to get everyone vaccinated with the vaccination being genetically modified so as to penetrated our cells easily so as to control us.....I will just stick to plain common sense and stick my head back in the sand and do my own research as I have had enough brain damage from all sides, with fals numbers of infections, deaths, surface contamination, masks etc etc etc.

This is what you're looking for, although I personally think it's a bit far-fetched:

https://www.activistpost.com/2020/05/dr-andrew-kaufman-they-want-to-genetically-modify-us-with-the-covid-19-vaccine.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1589210837

Like you say the youtube video has gone, but there's another platform hosting it below.

 

[4MyEgo]

4 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

although I personally think it's a bit far-fetched

Like most things, I also think it's a bit far fetched, but won't believe everything I am told to believe on mainstream media, like the number here, it's a bit like saying there is no prostitution in Thailand ????

[Swimfan]

Maybe the disaster is yet to come if they open the borders too quickly. 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

no one has taken a sample from 2019/2020 to make up a proper test

The Chinese published the genome, after which what appears to be a German or US company (Macherey-Nagel and Invitrogen ) manufactured PCR reagents for it. Thailand managed to get some for first batch of tests, after which it's unknown how much reagent they had access to.

 

In a thread here in TVF a couple of months ago were news a Thai company (Siam Biosciences) had started to produce more reagents.

 

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/conventional-rt-pcr-followed-by-sequencing-for-detection-of-ncov-rirl-nat-inst-health-t.pdf?sfvrsn=42271c6d_4

Quote

Materials & Methods 1.1 Macherey-Nagel Nucleospin RNA virus (Cat. No 740956) 1.2 Invitrogen superscriptTM III Platinum One-Step Quantitative (Cat No. 11732-020 or 11732-088)

 

It's unknown what the stock situation of the reagents was between February and end of April. It was however evident testing was very limited, to about max 2000 tests per day.

Quote

However, in reality, only 2,000 tests are conducted across the nation due to a lack of test materials.

 

One has to remember the entire world went after supplies at the same time. There will have been shortages.

 

Follow the timelines people. They are revealing.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The Chinese published the genome, after which what appears to be a German or US company (Macherey-Nagel and Invitrogen ) manufactured PCR reagents for it. Thailand managed to get some for first batch of tests, after which it's unknown how much reagent they had access to.

 

In a thread here in TVF a couple of months ago were news a Thai company (Siam Biosciences) had started to produce more reagents.

 

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/conventional-rt-pcr-followed-by-sequencing-for-detection-of-ncov-rirl-nat-inst-health-t.pdf?sfvrsn=42271c6d_4

 

It's unknown what the stock situation of the reagents was between February and end of April. It was however evident testing was very limited, to about max 2000 tests per day.

 

One has to remember the entire world went after supplies at the same time. There will have been shortages.

 

Follow the timelines people. They are revealing.

Indeed there were shortages. Nobody was prepared. South Korea was not prepared. Germany was not prepared.

 

South Korea and Germany reacted quickly to produce test as soon as the genome was published. Which is why they did a lot better than the UK where PHE said there's no tests, there won't be tests any time soon and unlike Germany and South Korea private companies were not involved in providing test kits.

 

This argument that Thailand was prepared when others weren't is a lot of silliness.

 

Macherey Nagel is a German company from Dueren.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Logosone

[Yorkshire Tea]

1 hour ago, Swimfan said:

Maybe the disaster is yet to come if they open the borders too quickly. 

Yeah, I get the feeling that Thailand hasn't been exposed to the same virus that's running riot in latin america & other places.

[DrTuner]

14 minutes ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

Yeah, I get the feeling that Thailand hasn't been exposed to the same virus that's running riot in latin america & other places.

I'm not sure. The events (Lumpini, etc) that led to the lockdowns in March might have been G614. By that time people started to get aware, so containment could have been possible. It does look like the virus has been in Thailand for quite some time though, in it's early D614 form.

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

http://www.asymco.com/

 

 

Prior to that, according to the excess death numbers from BBC and NYT, something seems to have been simmering in Thailand since mid 2019.

 

EDIT: Here's what seems to be a European originated strain sequenced in Thailand in March: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/asia?branchLabel=none&dmax=2020-03-22&dmin=2020-03-07&s=Thailand/Bangkok-CONI-0116/2020

Edited June 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[ChouDoufu]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that could be one explanation, Thailand, just happened to have an increase of 2400 deaths starting exactly at the time of the pandemic.

 

However,  you have to factor in that this figure of excess deaths starts at the time of the pandemic

 

You have to factor in that Thailand, a country of mass tourism, many from China, is telling you there were 58 deaths. With a population of 70 million people. Which frankly common sense would tell you is obviously unlikely.

 

You have to factor in that Thailand did not test 99% of its population so it has no way of knowing whatsoever how many died of Covid19. If you don't test for Covid 19, how can you attribute deaths to Covid 19? You can't.

 

You have to factor in that excess deaths are now an accepted way to estimate the true Covid19 death toll more accurately. The Economist is doing it, the BBC is doing it, the New York Times is doing it. This is not some internet conspiracy to attack Thailand.

 

You have to factor in that almost every country currently has experienced significant increases in excess mortality. That just so happen to coincide with the duration of this pandemic. Just like in Thailand.

 

In some transparent countries, like France, just over 100% of the excess mortality can be attributed to Covid 19. In countries like Belgium, which clearly overcounted Covid 19 deaths, it is over 115% that can be attributed to Covid 19 deaths. In those countries which have not tested enough on a meaningful scale, like Indonesia, you can see that the excess deaths are not covered 100% by the Covid 19 deaths. That just means they did not test enough. It's obvious.

 

If you look at Thailand's road deaths by the way, 6000 around the half year mark in 2020 when many estimated 24000 for the year, you can see that up to 6000 road deaths did not happen in 2020. It is more than possible, indeed likely, that many thousands of non-occuring road deaths kept the excess death figure much lower than it really would have been in Thailand due to Covid19, thus distorting the figure. It is perfectly possible that the actual excess deaths from Covid 19 are in the range of 3000-6000.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

As has been pointed out the hand washing increase would also have decreased the excess death figure from other viral diseases. So the excess death figure attributable to Covid19 gets larger still.

 

Of course if you don't test 99% of the population the figures of death from Covid19 will be miniscule. The same happened in Lesotho, Nigeria, Uganda. Nobody in their right mind would celebrate any of these countries as "success" stories.

 

Rather they should be lamented as yet another instance of a country that made no real effort to test, is not transparent and can not give you any credible figures.

 

yes, there apparently were excess deaths (more than expected) for some reason.  no way at this point to prove they were covid19 deaths, so you have no basis for claiming so.  you, the intertubes expert, have no expertise, just a gut feeling.  you can factor in all those factors for which you have no actual numbers, so your math gets awful fuzzy. 

 

you might be right, but you might be wrong.  the most you can honestly say is "i don't know, but i suspect...." 

 

jinkies, i could just as easily say those excess deaths were heart attack victims who couldn't get to the hospital in time because the ambulance drivers were taking too many virus precautions.....and i'd have just the same justification for your claim.  my imagination.