Thailand had the world's first coronavirus case outside China. Here's how it avoided disaster

[bodga]

4 hours ago, ehs818 said:

I think that the real reason that Thailand has not had many cases is because Thais don't hug, kiss, and shake hands. They give a Wai instead. It cuts down on contact and prevent infection in that manner. Am I wrong, or just simple minded?

 

you  could be both?

[bodga]

Someone needs to tell the bird in the clear facemask it wont help

[Logosone]

33 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

Quite the opposite, Thailand has a very large percentage of people who are Vitamin D deficient.

 

It seems that they don't like going out in the sun for some unknown reason.

 

Not at all true. Thailand has among the best Vitamin D levels by international comparison. Sun is not the sole source, Thais get a lot of Vitamin D from diet. That is why Swedes also have a very high level, fish.

 

"In most of Asia Pacific vitamin insufficiency with a 25(OH)D level between 25 – 49 nmol/l is highly prevalent in adults whereas Thailand, Fiji Islands, Taiwan and Vietnam report a desirable level of 75 nmol/l."

 

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arquivos/201606/2016060068176001464973585.pdf

[from the home of CC]

6 hours ago, robblok said:

Strange that indonesia has countless infections. That rules out climate. The hash lockdown is what saved us. 

 

I

that and no aversion to mask wearing, imo one of the biggest downfalls in the west..

[4MyEgo]

36 minutes ago, ukrules said:

They found it in sewage samples taken in November 2019, in Europe.

 

It's been all around the world, long before anyone knew it existed.

 

How? At that time it was probably milder and easily diagnosed as a bad cold.

If you have a link to back that up, I would love to see it, because that is news that I haven't been fed.

 

36 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Quite the opposite, Thailand has a very large percentage of people who are Vitamin D deficient.

 

It seems that they don't like going out in the sun for some unknown reason.

Yes putting one and one together makes sense, not getting out in the sun so as not to get burn crisp and have singlet marks for just 5 minutes in the sun at 8am in the morning, so I have learnt ????

 

36 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Probably hundreds of thousands.

Yep, would have to agree, but I haven't heard the hospitals being slaughtered with people being admitted.

[bluesofa]

16 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Apologise, I forgot to mention that, yes, If we believe the statistics, 3,000 plus, and 58 dead, 1st country outside of China with a heavy presence of Chinese in and out of Thailand at that time.

 

Yes, the warm humid weather and Thai's having a strong immune system due to lots of sun, e.g. vitamin D, kept the numbers down, there is no other explanation, unless you look for it, as you stated.

Could it be the increase in deaths claimed, against the official figures is because the government listed some of those who have died as from anything other than Covid? Or even didn't test them for Covid - the numbers of those tested appear to be abysmally low compared to other countries. Is that one way to make the Thai figures look better, by not declaring/testing them?

 

We know how the government undercount road traffic deaths that are way higher than admitted.

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but it seems odd that Thailand appears to have come out of this unscathed.

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by bluesofa

[snowgard]

6 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

You can thank the humid weather and Thais having good vitamin D levels due to being exposed to the sun, which makes me wonder, ....

 

That's my take on it, besides I can't wait for Anutin to take his first jab when Thailand produces it's first cocktail, I mean vaccine, I hope it's a BIG one.......and it goes in his rear end !

Yeah right!!! Same in Brazil, India, Peru, Mexico, .....!!!  But stupid that THIS REASON NOT WORK, or?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[ukrules]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Not at all true. Thailand has among the best Vitamin D levels by international comparison. Sun is not the sole source, Thais get a lot of Vitamin D from diet. That is why Swedes also have a very high level, fish.

 

"In most of Asia Pacific vitamin insufficiency with a 25(OH)D level between 25 – 49 nmol/l is highly prevalent in adults whereas Thailand, Fiji Islands, Taiwan and Vietnam report a desirable level of 75 nmol/l."

 

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arquivos/201606/2016060068176001464973585.pdf

 

I don't make up anything that I post here, it's nearly always based on something I've read previously, even though it may have been years ago.

 

So, if Thailand has among the best Vit D levels by comparison the rest of the world is really in trouble.

 

This :

 

Quote

Chailurkit et al. [12] conducted the largest-scale examination of vitamin D status in Thai population and reported a 45.2% prevalence rate of vitamin D insufficiency, defined as serum 25(OH)D level < 30 ng/mL (<75 nmol/L) a 5.7% prevalence rate of vitamin D deficiency, defined as serum 25(OH)D level <20 ng/mL (<50 nmol/L).

 

From : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5685050/

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by ukrules

[4MyEgo]

7 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

Could it be the increase in deaths claimed, against the official figures is because the government listed some of those who have died as from anything other than Covid? Or even didn't test them for Covid - the numbers of those tested appear to be abysmally low compared to other countries. Is that one way to make the Thai figures look better, by not declaring/testing them?

 

We know how the government undercount road traffic deaths that are way higher than admitted.

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but it seems odd that Thailand appears to have come out of this unscathed.

 

Ditto

[4MyEgo]

9 minutes ago, snowgard said:

Yeah right!!! Same in Brazil, India, Peru, Mexico, .....!!!  But stupid that THIS REASON NOT WORK, or?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Are you suggesting that the Thai government are lying, that never occured to me, and there I was thinking it was the humid weather and of course Thai's having a good immune system because they are in the sun a lot, otherwise how on earth did they get so tanned. 

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

 

So, if Thailand has among the best Vit D levels by comparison the rest of the world is really in trouble.

 

This :

 

 

From : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5685050/

 

There have been a number of studies of Vitamin D levels in Thailand, which are wildly divergent (what a shock).

 

In this study 63.5% had normal vitamin D levels (20 ng/ml up) and 36.5% were vitamin D deficient (< 20 ng/ml).  The vitamin D level  of this population was not related   to age, sex,  sunlight exposure and choice of clothing worn by the subjects.

 

https://bangkokmedjournal.com/article/a-cross-section-study-of-vitamin-d-levels-in-thai-office-workers/94/article

 

It's generally true that there is a global Vitamin D deficiency, but it does not look like Thailand is having a major problem with this, when compared to some other countries.

[4MyEgo]

7 hours ago, robblok said:

Strange that indonesia has countless infections. That rules out climate. The hash lockdown is what saved us. 

 

I

So we have lead to believe, I mean seriously do you believe the stats here, I don't, the humid weather and immune system thing was me having a go, guess it went over a few heads ????

 

[NoshowJones]

5 hours ago, ehs818 said:

I think that the real reason that Thailand has not had many cases is because Thais don't hug, kiss, and shake hands. They give a Wai instead. It cuts down on contact and prevent infection in that manner. Am I wrong, or just simple minded?

 

Thai men may not shake hands, but some of them just cannot keep their hands off us.

I am fed up brushing away Thai salesmen who insist on always trying to touch me when they want to sell me something in some store. Don't tell me it only happens to me.

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

If you have a link to back that up, I would love to see it, because that is news that I haven't been fed.

 

Here you go, it's quite recent news from just a few days ago, I expect there will be more findings like this in the future as stored samples from around the world are analysed  :

 

An analysis discovered samples taken in Milan and Turin on 18 December showed the presence of

COVID-19 - more than two weeks before China reported its first cases.

 

One of the sources : https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sewage-samples-show-covid-19-was-in-italy-in-december-scientists-claim-12010558

 

How long does it take from infection until it shows up in the sewage? A week, two weeks?

 

Whatever it is - this suggests the Chinese were covering it up for longer than previously thought.

 

I wonder......does Thailand keep samples from their treatment plants in Bangkok?

 

[bkk6060]

19 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

Thai men may not shake hands, but some of them just cannot keep their hands off us.

I am fed up brushing away Thai salesmen who insist on always trying to touch me when they want to sell me something in some store. Don't tell me it only happens to me.

Huh.

Interesting I cannot think of one Thai man who ever touched me while shopping for something.

I would tell them immediately not to touch me Covid or not.

But, maybe you are cute, friendly and like able so they feel free to touch.  ????

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

How long does it take from infection until it shows up in the sewage? A week, two weeks?

Needs to incubate long enough for the viral load to become high and then individual(s) need to swallow saliva containing the virus, that needs to pass through the tract. A week-two weeks seems like a good guess. And if you can measure it in sewage, the concentration must be detectable, so likely not just one person.

Edited June 23, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Whatever it is - this suggests the Chinese were covering it up for longer than previously thought.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-wuhan-fall-satellite-data-internet-searches-2020-6

 

October and probably even earlier.

Quote

"I don't know about the August start," Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Reuters. However, he said, "it's clear this had been spreading for some time before it was recognized and reported to the World Health Organization in December."

 

It would have been in Thailand quite fast after China, as this is the major tourist destination for them. 

 

From the death data gathered by New York Times, using Thailand's Department of Provincial Administration death data, one can see something started brewing up in last quarter of 2019.

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

This is the only data that MoPH can't twist, the absolute total number of deaths by month. And even then not sure if it includes Bangkok Metropolitan area.

[Mung]

Utter tripe! For those who have a memory, Thailand did next to nothing throughout January, February and most of March. While other Asian countries were closing schools, social events, borders and grounding flights, Thailand did nothing and tested very few. All the while, tens of thousands of Chinese tourists were allowed to enter the Kingdom. Thailand for whatever reason was very lucky, if it is down to the climate, genetics or something else like a different strain of the virus, whatever it is they were lucky. 

[Mung]

8 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

Shhhhhh.......you're not allowed to say that on here.  The lockdown was all about asserting control and dominance, remember?

 

I would agree with the lockdown being the deciding factor for Thailands low numbers, if it was introduced back in January or even February. Thailand had 80,000 tourists from Wuhan alone across those 2 months. 

[Mung]

4 hours ago, martinhp said:

I give you it is strange but the lockdowns have very little to do with it the amount of people close together at the bus stop was enough too in theory be fare greater than lompini the boxing stadium. 

But nothing happened. 

On top of this 2 month +before lockdown after 1 case in thailand. 

The question is why but all the incompetence they show off has nothing to do with it. 

I believe we had the 1 case in Dec 2019 but nobody knew about coronavirus at this stage. 

In some way it past over our heads for some reason. 

Not as coronavirus is a deadly virus you can't really say that. 

In some cases it can spread very fast and in others not at all. 

But the government has nothing to do with the luck we had with the virus it would have been enough with distance and mask and clean. 

But don't fool yourself the question still stands why. 

 

There has been a confirmed protein mutation that occurred somewhere in Europe around JFebruary. It caused the virus to become 10x as infectious, maybe this strain hasn't really had chance to enter into Thailand or Asia much for that matter 

[Mung]

2 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

that and no aversion to mask wearing, imo one of the biggest downfalls in the west..

I looked around Hua Hin throughout January/February, and there were barely any people wearing masks at all. That only became popular heading into March which would have been nearly 3 months for the virus to spread. That is enough time to spread across the entire country considering the R0 potential 

[Nkpjed]

Thailand did nothing more or less than other countries.  It’s pure luck the virus is not worse here and has nothing to do with how well the government “avoided disaster”.  Same with bordering countries.  When they stop patting themselves on the back handing out medals and address real issues that kill thousands here like guns and road carnage, then I’ll be impressed.

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, Mung said:

I looked around Hua Hin throughout January/February, and there were barely any people wearing masks at all. That only became popular heading into March which would have been nearly 3 months for the virus to spread. That is enough time to spread across the entire country considering the R0 potential 

My take is it had from September to end of February to spread. If they had done antibody tests back then, we'd know. Maybe they did and do know. We don't. Now it's too late anyway as it seems the antibodies only stay for a few months.

Edited June 23, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

Nextstrain deleted their animation, but they did add an interesting color scheme:

 

As can be seen, Asia has mostly strains that are from an earlier (Blue) root. (19A and 19B). Europe developed multiple strains later (Yellow) and it looks like the ones wreaking havoc in the Americas (Red and Orange) are quite specific strains. 

 

Again, fits the timeline of events and the severity of the pandemic. What is missing are samples and genomes from September - December 2019. Perhaps these could be obtained from corpses, if not cremated, or waste water samples.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by DrTuner

[ukrules]

37 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And if you can measure it in sewage, the concentration must be detectable, so likely not just one person.

I would think it's many people to detect it in sewage samples. 1000's of people would be my guess

 

[ukrules]

30 minutes ago, Mung said:

I would agree with the lockdown being the deciding factor for Thailands low numbers, if it was introduced back in January or even February. Thailand had 80,000 tourists from Wuhan alone across those 2 months. 

I'm thinking more like October

 

Have they ruled out that this could have started in Thailand and then mutated in China?

Edited June 23, 2020 by ukrules

[ukrules]

16 minutes ago, Nkpjed said:

Thailand did nothing more or less than other countries.  It’s pure luck the virus is not worse here and has nothing to do with how well the government “avoided disaster”.  Same with bordering countries.  When they stop patting themselves on the back handing out medals and address real issues that kill thousands here like guns and road carnage, then I’ll be impressed.

There's no such thing as luck.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I'm thinking more like October

 

Have they ruled out that this could have started in Thailand?

Heresy! The glorious, magical people of Thailand are immune to everything from ebola to shifts in the earth's core. Can't be.

[Yinn]

9 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

You can thank the humid weather and Thais having good vitamin D 

 

That's my take on it,

Or you can read the link. It explain why.

 

Mrs Boosamsai is a Village Health volunteer, an army of predominantly female, community-minded workers with basic medical training.

While they are frequently called upon outside of pandemics, the strength of the volunteers has proven to be valuable amid the spread of COVID-19.

 

"During the peak in March and April, I went to visit the community every day," Mrs Boosamsai told the ABC, adding she first made sure to take precautions against being infected.

"I gave them food, masks, hand gel and taught the villagers how to wash their hands," she said.

 

 

Meanwhile ......

 

 

 

 

[CLS]

10 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

Clearly, the alcohol ban was the deciding factor here. Who ever came up with the idea should be in the running for this years Nobel prize. 

Yes, but I wonder in which category.

Literature? Gangster stories is the best fit.