U.S. coronavirus cases hit 3 million, stoking fears of overwhelmed hospitals

[Eric Loh]

The bad news is that the coronavirus will continue to spike as long as Trump's obstinacy and behavior don't change. His supporters denounced all the CDC recommendation on mask, social distancing, tracing and testing and they will be the super spreader. Any recommendation to force mask wearing is treason to the Trumpers. Governors in red states Texas and Florida like Abbot and DeSantis are between a rock and a hard face. They can't stop the virus spreading since they can't order masking and distancing. Judge Jennine got a backlash from Trumpers when she wore a mask. All points to a huge spike in infections and deaths. 

[Traubert]

You can bring all the graphs you like and percentages etc. but the final baseline number is 131,000 dead and if you don't think that's cause for concern, carry on.

[mtls2005]

Deaths ticking back up.

 

Seems like a new record for new daily cases, over 60,000.

 

Red states getting hammered.

[ballpoint]

57 minutes ago, pmarlin said:

Currently right now the US has 3,029,647 infections and 131,960 deaths from the virus which is 0.0453% death rate. a 99.95% survival rate

No it isn't. 131,960/3,029,647 = 0.0436 = 4.36% death rate.

[steelepulse]

2 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

No it isn't. 131,960/3,029,647 = 0.0436 = 4.36% death rate.

According to 23 studies of at least 500 people, the ifr rate is .04%  

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%).

 

 

[ballpoint]

15 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

According to 23 studies of at least 500 people, the ifr rate is .04%  

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%).

 

 

I was replying to pmarlin, using the figures he gave:

131.960 dead

3,029,647 (tested) number of infections

 

If 4.36 people out of 100 die from it, then it's:

43.6 out of 1,000

436 out of 10,000

4,360 out of 100,000

43,600 out of 1,000,000

multiplying by 3:

130,800 out of 3,000,000 - pretty close to the figures above.

Edited July 9, 2020 by ballpoint

[steelepulse]

2 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

We know how many are dead = 131.960

We know the current (tested) number of infections = 3,029,647

 

If 4.36 people out of 100 die from it, then it's:

43.6 out of 1,000

436 out of 10,000

4,360 out of 100,000

43,600 out of 1,000,000

multiplying by 3:

130,800 out of 3,000,000 - pretty close to the figures above.

We also know that 80% are asymptomatic carriers and never get tested.  Reports show that 20-50X as many people have had covid than have been reported.  This has been shown in various publications.  Feel free to look them up so you can stop being so scared.

[mtls2005]

33 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Red states getting hammered.

 

Outbreak at Mississippi Capitol: Number of infected lawmakers grows to 26

 

Gov. Tate Reeves is warning the public to get tested for coronavirus if they have been in contact with a state lawmaker.

 

The number of coronavirus cases linked to an outbreak at the Capitol has grown to 36, which includes 26 legislators, according to the state's top health official.

 

Many politicians flouted recommendations to wear a mask inside the Capitol in recent weeks. Now, about one in six of Mississippi state lawmakers have tested positive for the coronavirus.

 

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/08/mississippi-coronavirus-outbreak-capitol-grows-26-lawmakers/5401147002/

[ChouDoufu]

9 hours ago, Tug said:

Yea now donald is saying he will defund schools if they don’t open,how are you going to get kids to social distance the dude doesent think things through consequently he looks like an idiot now trying to force parents to expose their kids to covid sometimes I think he’s a straight up imbecile come on November!!

c'mon, it's just the flu, bruh!  social distancing is for commies!

 

we'll just issue the kids a ration of tide pods and uv bulb suppositories, and get them registered on tiktok....then let the hunger games begin!

 

 

but really, doesn't it seem he's now doing this on purpose?  trying to inflame his own supporters as well as the resistance?  looks to me like he's seen the graffiti on the wall, and wants the party elders to pick a new candidate for november.  i think he wants THEM to withdraw his name so he has someone to blame, cause he was winning! 

[ballpoint]

22 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

We also know that 80% are asymptomatic carriers and never get tested.  Reports show that 20-50X as many people have had covid than have been reported.  This has been shown in various publications.  Feel free to look them up so you can stop being so scared.

Once again, I was replying to another poster, correcting a mistake made using their own figures.  I suggest you take up the numbers with them.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by ballpoint

[johnpetersen]

22 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

We also know that 80% are asymptomatic carriers and never get tested.  Reports show that 20-50X as many people have had covid than have been reported.  This has been shown in various publications.  Feel free to look them up so you can stop being so scared.

No, We don't know that. Estimates vary. 80% is the top of the range.

[johnnybangkok]

19 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Every country has failed in dealing with this pandemic effectively.  Britain certainly handled it very badly.  But this is still an ongoing situation and there is much more to come.  No one can say with any confidence when this will be over or how much worse it will get.  The UK government cannot bring themselves to level with public because they have screwed up so badly and continue to do so. 

 

As for the USA, you have a complete idiot in the White House who has lost all grip on reality and just rants and raves like the lunatic he clearly is.

Although I agree with most of your post, I have to take acception to 'Every country has failed in dealing with this pandemic effectively'. South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia, Greece and even Thailand faired much, much better than most.   https://time.com/5851633/best-global-responses-covid-19/

 

The common denominator? They all acted quickly and decisively at THE BEGINNING of the pandemic with either mass testing, tracking and isolating (like S. Korea, Taiwan) or immediate lockdown (Greece, Singapore, Thailand). The UK dithered with their wrong 'herd immunity' initial response and when they finally got their act together (some 6 weeks after the crisis happened), it was of course far too late. 

And I think we all agree if it's wasn't for Trumps deny, deflect, ignore the science response (even still doing it now by not insisting on masks for everyone and the promise it'll all be gone soon), the US would have faired much, much better. Both Boris and Trump are responsible for their countries appalling numbers of deaths and both should be held accountable; starting with Trump in November and Boris as soon as possible. 

[johnpetersen]

49 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

According to 23 studies of at least 500 people, the ifr rate is .04%  

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%).

 

 

And this review from Nature cites a lot of research saying it's higher.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

So not nearly so cut-and-dried as you believe.

[heybruce]

6 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

They should call these "lockdown surges". 

 

You get all the negative effects of a lockdown, then you get the nice lockdown surge when you come out of it. 

 

The fact that Sweden and its now 4 or 5 deaths a day is not being brought up every 2 seconds on the US news astonishes. The answers are right in everyone's face.

 

It is not three months ago any longer, we actually know the answers now. Look at Sweden's death curve, and how "natural" it behaved, now almost completely tapered.

Right, Sweden's death rate per million of population is only the fifth highest in the world.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

 

Way to go Sweden!

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, pmarlin said:

Currently right now the US has 3,029,647 infections and 131,960 deaths from the virus which is 0.0453% death rate. a 99.95% survival rate

As a former Math teacher, allow me to say:  F-.  I'd give you a lower grade if possible.

 

Check your arithmetic.  Start by dividing 131,960 by 3,029,647 then multiplying by 100 to convert to percent...

[heybruce]

31 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

We also know that 80% are asymptomatic carriers and never get tested.  Reports show that 20-50X as many people have had covid than have been reported.  This has been shown in various publications.  Feel free to look them up so you can stop being so scared.

I've read many have tested positive for the Covid-19 antibodies, which indicates that probably a lot of people have had the virus and didn't notice.  You'll have to provide sources for the 20-50X claim, that far exceeds any I've seen.

 

BTW: If you give the standard "look it up yourself" response, we'll know you pulled the numbers out of, well....

[ballpoint]

2 minutes ago, heybruce said:

I've read many have tested positive for the Covid-19 antibodies, which indicates that probably a lot of people have had the virus and didn't notice.  You'll have to provide sources for the 20-50X claim, that far exceeds any I've seen.

 

BTW: If you give the standard "look it up yourself" response, we'll know you pulled the numbers out of, well....

If one had the dexterity to look it up themselves, then what they were looking at would exactly be the place where the numbers came from.

[ballpoint]

Given that we know the total death toll is 131,960:

A 0.04% fatality rate would mean an infection count of 329,900,000 people in total. (131,960/(0.04/100))

"The United States 2020 population is estimated at 331,002,651 people at mid year according to UN data".

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/#:~:text=the United States 2020 population,year according to UN data.

 

Do the maths...

[Berkshire]

2 hours ago, pmarlin said:

Currently right now the US has 3,029,647 infections and 131,960 deaths from the virus which is 0.0453% death rate. a 99.95% survival rate

You seem to be implying that if people catch COVID and don't die, it's as if they just had the flu and will recover 100%.  That's not reality.  Many survivors of COVID talk of extreme suffering with coughing, fatigue, breathing, etc.  And some research has suggested that there may be long term damage to the lungs, heart, and possibly the brain.  That's why it makes sense to avoid catching it in the first place and not have to find out.  Or have an effective vaccine.     

[candide]

2 hours ago, pmarlin said:

Based on the current estimated US population the infection rate is 0.0081% so why is the media acting like the world's ending. Hell the rate would be a lot lower except for the fact the US has tested over 40 million people. How many people has Thailand tested?

0.0081 is not the same as 0.0081%. It's 0.81%

[heybruce]

44 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

If one had the dexterity to look it up themselves, then what they were looking at would exactly be the place where the numbers came from.

Got it:  You made a claim you can not support.

[spiekerjozef]

It will go away....

By that he means the hospitals.

[heybruce]

13 hours ago, heybruce said:

4/1000 of 1% of 330 million is 13,200.  You are off by a factor of ten, there are over 130,000 Covid 19 deaths in the US at this time.

 

There were "only" 16, 214 murders in the US in 2018, but try telling gun fans that they're safe and don't need to protect themselves.   https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/

 

I wonder how many people who insist they must have a gun to protect themselves and others also insist they don't need a mask to protect themselves and others?

 

33 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

Given that we know the total death toll is 131,960:

A 0.04% fatality rate would mean an infection count of 329,900,000 people in total. (131,960/(0.04/100))

"The United States 2020 population is estimated at 331,002,651 people at mid year according to UN data".

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/#:~:text=the United States 2020 population,year according to UN data.

 

Do the maths...

So you think that all small percentage death rates are nothing to be concerned about?  You know, murders, road deaths, drownings, fires, electrocutions, aircraft crashes, etc?

 

Safety be damned, right?

 

BTW, if the 0.04% death rate over four months translates into 0.12% over a year, that would translate into a 7.2% chance of dying of Covid-19 over 60 years, approximately one in fourteen people.  Is that a high enough death rate to concern you?

[Opl]

Exposed to the virus out of necessity..

"Latino and African-American residents of the United States have been three times as likely to become infected as their white neighbors, according to the new data, which provides detailed characteristics of 640,000 infections detected in nearly 1,000 U.S. counties. And Black and Latino people have been nearly twice as likely to die from the virus as white people, the data shows. The disparities persist across state lines and regions. "

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/05/us/coronavirus-latinos-african-americans-cdc-data.html

 

Exposed to the virus by choice... Anti masks protesters, Henderson

https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/henderson/no-mask-nevada-pac-protests-sisolak-mandate-in-henderson-2070299/

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Opl

[Lacessit]

11 minutes ago, Opl said:

Exposed to the virus out of necessity..

"Latino and African-American residents of the United States have been three times as likely to become infected as their white neighbors, according to the new data, which provides detailed characteristics of 640,000 infections detected in nearly 1,000 U.S. counties. And Black and Latino people have been nearly twice as likely to die from the virus as white people, the data shows. The disparities persist across state lines and regions. "

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/05/us/coronavirus-latinos-african-americans-cdc-data.html

 

Exposed to the virus by choice... Anti masks protesters, Henderson

 

Well, at least they don't have to worry about brain damage if they do get infected.

[ballpoint]

28 minutes ago, heybruce said:

 

So you think that all small percentage death rates are nothing to be concerned about?  You know, murders, road deaths, drownings, fires, electrocutions, aircraft crashes, etc?

 

Safety be damned, right?

 

BTW, if the 0.04% death rate over four months translates into 0.12% over a year, that would translate into a 7.2% chance of dying of Covid-19 over 60 years, approximately one in fourteen people.  Is that a high enough death rate to concern you?

I suggest you read my post again.  (And my previous ones on this thread).  I was pointing out that a 0.04% death rate, which others were claiming as no big deal, would equate to more people being infected than actually live in the US.

[ballpoint]

35 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Got it:  You made a claim you can not support.

Again, go back and see who it was that you asked where the numbers came from.  I was suggesting from where they extracted them.

[johnpetersen]

5 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Well, at least they don't have to worry about brain damage if they do get infected.

Good thing Nevada has the virus under control

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nevada-coronavirus-cases.html

[Eric Loh]

24 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Well, at least they don't have to worry about brain damage if they do get infected.

Maybe they already got infected thus the lobotomized protest. 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, steelepulse said:

We also know that 80% are asymptomatic carriers and never get tested.  Reports show that 20-50X as many people have had covid than have been reported.  This has been shown in various publications.  Feel free to look them up so you can stop being so scared.

Who's scared? I'm just trying to predict the end of the world as we know it. As for your numbers they don't stand against experiment. Spain, one of Europe’s hardest hit countries, just completed a wide random test and found very low antibody presence, about 5%.  

 

Worse, only registered cases previously confirmed COVID-19 positive were highly likely to have antibodies, about 90%. Of 7273 other cases with multiple symptoms or loss of smell, only ~20% had antibodies. The vast sea of protected people may be a myth. Not to mention that coronavirus immunity may be fleeting.

 

Spanish Covid-19 antibody study suggests herd immunity infeasible

 

As for the EOW calculation, it's starting to hone in on around 1990-1995.