University of Washington forecasts 300,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths

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University of Washington forecasts 300,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths

By Doina Chiacu and Rich McKay

 

FILE PHOTO: Customers wait in line to shop for food at a Food 4 Less grocery store, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Los Angeles, California, U.S., August 5, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Blake

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Nearly 300,000 Americans could be dead from COVID-19 by Dec. 1, University of Washington health experts forecast on Thursday, although they said 70,000 lives could be saved if people were scrupulous about wearing masks.

 

The prediction by the university's widely cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation comes as top White House infectious disease advisors warned that major U.S. cities could erupt as new hot spots if officials there were not vigilant with counter-measures.

 

"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States. It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down," Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME said in announcing the university's latest forecast.

 

The U.S. death toll stands at over 159,000, the most of any country in the world, with 4.8 million known cases. (Open https://tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser for a Reuters interactive graphic)

 

The IHME said infections were falling in former epicenters of Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, but rising in Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Virginia. Those findings are consistent with Reuters tallies.

 

White House health experts are warning of a slow rise in the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in U.S. cities such as Boston, Chicago, Detroit and Washington and urged local leaders to remain vigilant to avoid a surge. Lisa Bernhard produced this report.

 

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican, on Thursday said he had tested positive for COVID-19 ahead of a planned meeting with President Donald Trump, but had experienced no symptoms of the illness.

 

Tennessee and North Carolina reported record single-day increases in deaths on Thursday with 42 and 73, respectively.

 

'TROUBLE AHEAD'

The U.S. outbreak, once centered around densely populated New York City, has since infected communities from coast to coast. Experts believe that spread has been driven in part by summer vacation travel.

 

"This is a predictor of trouble ahead," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious diseases official, told CNN on Thursday.

 

Fauci was speaking after the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx, identified new areas of concern during a telephone call with state and local officials on Wednesday.

 

Baltimore and Atlanta remain at a "very high level," as well as Kansas City, Portland, Omaha and California's Central Valley, Birx said on the call, a recording of which was obtained by the journalism nonprofit Center for Public Integrity.

 

White House data shows small increases in the percentage of positive tests in Chicago, Boston, Detroit and Washington.

 

On the positive side, medical professionals have a better understanding of what they are dealing with, said Dr. Khalilah Gates, a pulmonary and critical care specialist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago.

 

"We don't know all of it, but it's not the fear of the unknown anymore," she told Reuters.

 

Trump has urged state and local authorities to re-open public schools for in-person learning and Fauci has said children should be sent back to class as soon as possible.

 

But many school districts nationwide, including two of the largest, Los Angeles and Chicago, have opted for online instruction.

 

In rural Mississippi's Corinth school district, where schools opened two weeks ago, five COVID-19 infections forced some students and teachers into quarantine, Superintendent Edward Lee Childress said on Facebook Live.

 

The decision to reopen schools took into account the "inevitable moment" that COVID-19 would be detected and contact tracing plans triggered, Childress said.

 

"We're going to have some more positive cases. We know it will happen," he said.

 

Although the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits fell last week, a staggering 31.3 million people were receiving unemployment checks in mid-July. Other data on Thursday showed a 54% surge in job cuts announced by employers in July.

 

The State Department on Thursday lifted an advisory from March that U.S. citizens should avoid all international travel due to the pandemic. But American travelers are still restricted or banned in many parts of the world, including the European Union and Canada.

 

Graphic: Tracking the novel coronavirus in the U.S. https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

 

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu and Susan Heavey in Washington, D.C., Barbara Goldberg and Maria Caspani in New York and Rich McKay in Atlanta; Writing by Sonya Hepinstall and Dan Whitcomb; Editing by Bill Berkrot, Bill Tarrant and Daniel Wallis)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-07

 

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[Tug]

I sincerely hope they are wrong that beeing said we all know what to do mask distance and as little contact with others as possible.

[Scott]

A post with unsubstantiated information has been removed.  Continued posting of misinformation will earn suspensions.  

 

[Tounge Thaied]

33 minutes ago, Tug said:

I sincerely hope they are wrong that beeing said we all know what to do mask distance and as little contact with others as possible.

It's wrong... but will be made to be correct. Ready for that often discussed second wave? Wait until all the flu deaths get mixed in and the numbers are going to be even bigger. 

[mtls2005]

The IHME/UW projections seem to have been pretty good, maybe missing the mroe recent spikes...

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Tounge Thaied]

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? Where's the data?

[mtls2005]

2 minutes ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? 

 

Well yeah, those and the voices in my head.

 

Maybe avoid reading and commenting on these sorts of threads? You'll definitely feel better.

 

 

 

 

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? Where's the data?

Where does it say the data or the report comes from MSN ?

 

Pick a source, any source, the data is the same 1,000 people are dying every day

[mtls2005]

3 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

MSN

 

MSM

 

Main Stream Media

 

Although I thought it was Lame Stream Media or FAKE NEWS!!!

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, US records more than 2,000 covid deaths in 24 hours, the highest number of daily fatalities in three months, John Hopkins University reports.

 

Look like this Washington Uni report is going to play out.

[Tug]

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

 

MSM

 

Main Stream Media

 

Although I thought it was Lame Stream Media or FAKE NEWS!!!

Oh and I thought it was hoax newe oops I meant Fox News lol

[Bender Rodriguez]

I skip everything now related to ...

[Redline]

19 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? Where's the data?

Try the university’s website 

[Chomper Higgot]

21 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? Where's the data?

The university of Washington is not any part of the ‘MSM’.

[Stargeezr]

I predicted 300 thousand by November, looks like I was slightly wrong.

   I am waiting for Trump to tweet that this is false or fake news soon.

  Not good for his Under control comment.  Or even if he is now, doing

the best that he can, he has done a great disservice by suggesting some

sort of detergent, or other untried cure for the virus.  I think that

over 500 thousand will be gone by next Summer, maybe more.  Still see

news stories where so many are still not wearing masks, or staying apart

at least.  The big freedom needs, seem like something that many Americans

just cannot live without.

Geezer

 

[LomSak27]

On 8/8/2020 at 3:17 AM, Redline said:

On 8/7/2020 at 7:26 AM, Tounge Thaied said:

Honestly... you people still listening to MSM sources? Where's the data?

Try the university’s website 

The U Dubs (UW) 300K projection, is the same as what Dr Birx was saying a week ago. This is just multiple sources coming up with roughly the same figure if current trends persist ... oh,  and it doesn't magically disappear.

 

Because it is what it is

[mtls2005]

Upped to 309,918 COVID-19 deaths based on current projection scenario by December 1, 2020

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america