Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

[Mobi]

I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Since you known so much my Thai Wife has just given the name of the next Prime Minster in the next Gov't. However its in Code #5f2%&t7w can you show it to you important powerful Thai friends to find out what it means. My Thai wife is able to guess the color of the Roulllette ball red or black but cann't make sense of this.

Me???

I know nothing

Important powerful Thai friends? - Oh that it were true

I just sit on my terrace and throw a ball for my dog to collect.

If he brings the ball back and drops it at my feet , then there will be no more coups.

If he wanders off and chews it at the far side of the pool, then you can be sure there is a coup in the making.

If my dog spoke to me, I'd ask him the name of the next prime minister.....because he knows more than me.

Why don't you try the local amulet production line? - they have good connections with the next world.

[John K]

John,

Much of the civil service is currently in 'neutral' mode, and that includes the Judiciary.

Such is the power of money and fear of retribution that even the previous election commissioners held out - even though it meant them going to jail.

I would think that given the complex and Bureaucratic nature of Thailand's judicial process, that things could be bogged down in the courts for years, if it suits those who wish it.

Another point worth bearing in mind is that if Thaksin is ultimately convicted, he could be extradited to face his accusers. There would virtually be no safe haven for such a high profile figure. He knows this, and will do anything to avoid this scenario. People tend to forget that he is not just fighting for his political future - he is fighting for his freedom, and quite possibly his life - which is why he will never give up, and which is why the coup leaders will not let him go. Unless they are ultimately subverted.

This is a high stakes game indeed.

I agree with you the stakes are high, buy also Thaksin knows no lows. Depending on your frame of mind at any given moment some can see he has already thrown his wife and children to the wolves so to speak. A different form of human shield I guess.

I feel comfortable in saying Thaksin’s only goal is to get back in power by any means. This very possible could include sudden lead poisoning of anyone he feels is in his way and needs to be removed quickly. I would say at the moment his biggest concern is May 30, so if he feels he would be disqualified from office the people making the decision should keep their heads down. No doubt they are already getting late night phone calls.

[Plus]

There are very few cases that concern Thaksin personally. Tax, for example, is levied on his children, wife, and relatives.

There are no cases, AFAIK, that would put him in jail.

However, if the Ratchada land sale reaches the courts Thaksin will be banned from politics for at least five years, same with TRT dissolution case. Thaksin is also mentioned in various corruption deals - last digit lotteries, scanners, etc. but I doubt they will be able to nail him personally, he just let things roll for his buddies in those cases.

I'm very sceptical about Thai judiciary, they have perverted justice for many many years, yet at the moment Thaksin seems to have lost control and the junta seem to be confident that the courts will rule against him.

Very possible he could win some appeals if he was back in power, and it's a big IF if the court decisions go against him. Five year ban from politics is not a joke, loyalty doesn't last that long, people will find new masters.

>>>>

Thaksin is out of the loop, in reality he is a nobody in business world, and he is a nobody in politics.

He can't enter in any new business in Thailand and he pissed off people with REAL power in this country. Do you seriously see him returning and winning elections and the army and the elite sitting by and doing nothing? The rented flower mob will surely gather to greet him at the airport but he is more likey to be executed there like Aquino of Phillipines.

[Tony Clifton]

He surely is dreaming of a triumphant return but I also doubt he'd make very far once back, maybe past the immigration counter, any further, I'd recommend wearing a diaper and kevlar. As you say, he's pissed off people with power but way many more who we'll never hear of, until an ordinary citizen takes the matter in his own hands...

[ColPyat]

Blaming the coming crisis on Thaksin is ignoring facts.

The draft of the new constitution seem to be as many have feared, with an appointed senate and draft charters coming out with ridiculous statements such as: "We all know elections are evil, but [why do] many people still want to see history repeated?" (read: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/27...cs_30032854.php ). There are other fears that the government and junta will not be able to withstand the pressure for introducing Buddhism as a National religion, which will have tremendously bad effects on the attempts of the authorities to improve the increasingly dire situation in the South as such a ruling will directly play into the hands into the insurgents and will sway many moderate Muslims over to the side of the insurgents.

Thailand moves increasingly into a situation that cannot be sorted anymore. The country today is even more divided into more opposing factions than it was during the mass demonstrations, and the charter referendum will show this. If the new constitution is rejected (which according to many it will be) then we are moving into a crises that will be far worse than what we saw last year. And this is not Thaksin's making, but the result of a very ill-timed coup.

Nobody says that the '97 constitution was ideal, but it was the best we had here. There is a miniscule chance that under such disruptive conditions we have now there could possibly be a better constitution be set up.

I think the only solution now is to reintroduce the '97 constitution (and in order to keep social peace give an amnesty to the coup makers), let elections commence ASAP, and then, when and if the country got back on track finally, carefully make amendments to the '97 constitution's weaker points.

Justifying the most undemocratic developments and decisions here by the perceived danger of Thaksin's possible return makes people ignore the far bigger dangers Thailand is facing now and in the immediate future: We have down south an insurgency that is a few minutes away from exploding into a civil war, <snip>,a more than unstable political landscape with a military government that has not exactly shown to be up to the complicated task, and a ever worsening economy.

[Johpa]

I am concerned that we are missing the point of Sonthi's warning. Thai politics never changes, just the constant movement of individuals without any real political agenda attempting to be within whichever group of boys that are in position to get the biggest piece of the pie. Constitution, oh please, they have been writing, re-drafting, proposing reforms for the mythical Thai constitution since I first arrived in LOS decades ago. The drafting of the constitution is just one big blow-smoke-up-their &lt;deleted&gt; campiagn to convince the forever duped populace, as well as the neo-sahib ex-pats, that those carving up the country have a political agenda.

So perhaps the crisis involves other issues.

[ColPyat]

I am concerned that we are missing the point of Sonthi's warning. Thai politics never changes, just the constant movement of individuals without any real political agenda attempting to be within whichever group of boys that are in position to get the biggest piece of the pie. Constitution, oh please, they have been writing, re-drafting, proposing reforms for the mythical Thai constitution since I first arrived in LOS decades ago. The drafting of the constitution is just one big blow-smoke-up-their &lt;deleted&gt; campiagn to convince the forever duped populace, as well as the neo-sahib ex-pats, that those carving up the country have a political agenda.

So perhaps the crisis involves other issues.

I would very much agree with your point about the smoke screen. Nevertheless, the expectations of these constitutions are enormous, and disappointment can create huge tensions. And right now, it seems almost certain that the raised expectations that such a new constitution being better than the '97 constitution will be not just disappointed, but even the process of drafting a new constitution has brought all the vested interests - partly idiotic, but also outright dangerously undemocratic - out of the wood work. If this smoke screen keeps going on i fear that the very instable situation and the conflicts within society cannot be contained anymore.

And then the Thaksin problem will just be a very minor issue, and we might look back on the Thaksin era as a time of relative peace and order, unfortunately.

[Mobi]

I know it is very dangerous to believe all you read in the press, but there has been an increasing groundswell of 'behind the scenes' news and gossip - some of it surprisingly frank and provocative - in all the English language press - which leads me to suspect that things are really heading for a major confrontation.

Just take this little snippet in yesterday's Post as an example:

Unusual step to heal rift

The public's growing disenchantment with the government is causing the coup-makers much grief / Sources say the PM should do something about a major stumbling block, who happens to be his own secretary-general / With Mr Thaksin out of the picture, no one wants to be chairman of his Class 10 alumni

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's recent move to invite the Council for National Security (CNS) chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to attend a cabinet meeting is unusual.

Gen Surayud's decision seems to confirm that a rift between the government leader and chief coup-maker exists.

Gen Sonthi reportedly is upset because he believes Gen Surayud, who is a former army chief, still considers him his subordinate. He believes he has moved on up the ladder, as the CNS chief with power to remove the prime minister.

Relations turned sour because Gen Sonthi felt he had been belittled by the prime minister.

As the government's performance failed to bring hope to the public, Gen Sonthi and key CNS figures share the common view that the council will be held responsible for the slow progress the government has made.

The CNS would have to take on responsibility after the government leaves office, as several CNS members would still be in government service. With the government and the CNS now reported to have different goals, speculation of a rift between them is rife.

Gen Sonthi recently discussed the problems with Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa. He wanted Mr Banharn to help raise certain matters with a phuyai at Sisao Theves residence, so that the phuyai passes on to Gen Surayud the discomfort of the CNS and finds ways to patch up the differences between them.

The invitation of the CNS chief to attend the cabinet session was one of the measures designed to mend the soured relations between Gen Surayud and Gen Sonthi.

The CNS chairman admitted his relations with Gen Surayud have improved following talks mediated by the respected figure.

However, there have been moves by some CNS members and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to put pressure on Gen Surayud to resign in May, to pave the way for the CNS to find another person to run the country, or set up a national government before the new general election is held, supposedly at the end of the year.

The PM's major stumbling block

The new cabinet line-up is not a cure-all formula for the Surayud government's sagging popularity, so long as heavyweights in Government House still do their job half-heartedly without any sense of urgency.

After seven months into this government's term, more and more people are losing their patience and have nicknamed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and his team "a hermit who raises turtles", for their slow pace of work.

Gen Surayud need not look very far because the major stumbling block is right by his side: his secretary-general, Pongthep Tesprateep.

Even the cabinet members have been scratching their heads after their proposals took weeks to reach Gen Surayud's table. All think-tanks are becoming weary.

The same fate befell the Yu Dee Mee Suk (Happy Living) project. The 10-billion-baht project, aimed at promoting sufficiency economy development in rural areas, is the government's latest counter-attack against the capitalism-based small, medium and large (SML) community scheme of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

After the project's curtain-raising in February, Gen Pongthep has yet to issue any guiding regulations.

As such, government officials have no clue as to how to sell the idea to the locals to win their support. All trips set up for the prime minister to view the progress of the project have been cancelled, as a result.

It is said that some cabinet members or public agencies coming up with bright ideas on how to brush up the government's image have to visit the secretary-general's office at least three or four times to explain to him and make him fully understand.

Such a time-consuming working style of Gen Pongthep has given the cabinet a headache.

"The PM's secretary-general is a vital post that requires a competent, charismatic and knowledgeable person. The secretary-general should be instrumental in coordinating the work and drawing up strategies for the prime minister," said one cabinet member.

"Gen Pongthep cannot match any of his predecessors."

To put to rest the mounting public pressure, Gen Surayud is now likely to shape up his entire cabinet to more quickly address certain pressing problems.

It is a shame, however, that the prime minister has overlooked this serious drawback in his own team.

It may be true, it may be a mixture of truth and fiction - but someone is stirring it up, and the Post is read by all the players in this little drama. As I said, this is just a sample - there's plenty more if you look for it. Some of the stuff in the Nation is even more sensational.

I hope I'm wrong, but fear the worst.

[qualtrough]

I am concerned that we are missing the point of Sonthi's warning. Thai politics never changes, just the constant movement of individuals without any real political agenda attempting to be within whichever group of boys that are in position to get the biggest piece of the pie. Constitution, oh please, they have been writing, re-drafting, proposing reforms for the mythical Thai constitution since I first arrived in LOS decades ago. The drafting of the constitution is just one big blow-smoke-up-their &lt;deleted&gt; campiagn to convince the forever duped populace, as well as the neo-sahib ex-pats, that those carving up the country have a political agenda.

So perhaps the crisis involves other issues.

My feelings exactly. I couldn't have said it better myself.

[blaze]

I know it is very dangerous to believe all you read in the press, but there has been an increasing groundswell of 'behind the scenes' news and gossip - some of it surprisingly frank and provocative - in all the English language press - which leads me to suspect that things are really heading for a major confrontation.

Just take this little snippet in yesterday's Post as an example:

Unusual step to heal rift

The public's growing disenchantment with the government is causing the coup-makers much grief / Sources say the PM should do something about a major stumbling block, who happens to be his own secretary-general / With Mr Thaksin out of the picture, no one wants to be chairman of his Class 10 alumni

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's recent move to invite the Council for National Security (CNS) chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to attend a cabinet meeting is unusual.

Gen Surayud's decision seems to confirm that a rift between the government leader and chief coup-maker exists.

Gen Sonthi reportedly is upset because he believes Gen Surayud, who is a former army chief, still considers him his subordinate. He believes he has moved on up the ladder, as the CNS chief with power to remove the prime minister.

Relations turned sour because Gen Sonthi felt he had been belittled by the prime minister.

As the government's performance failed to bring hope to the public, Gen Sonthi and key CNS figures share the common view that the council will be held responsible for the slow progress the government has made.

The CNS would have to take on responsibility after the government leaves office, as several CNS members would still be in government service. With the government and the CNS now reported to have different goals, speculation of a rift between them is rife.

Gen Sonthi recently discussed the problems with Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa. He wanted Mr Banharn to help raise certain matters with a phuyai at Sisao Theves residence, so that the phuyai passes on to Gen Surayud the discomfort of the CNS and finds ways to patch up the differences between them.

The invitation of the CNS chief to attend the cabinet session was one of the measures designed to mend the soured relations between Gen Surayud and Gen Sonthi.

The CNS chairman admitted his relations with Gen Surayud have improved following talks mediated by the respected figure.

However, there have been moves by some CNS members and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to put pressure on Gen Surayud to resign in May, to pave the way for the CNS to find another person to run the country, or set up a national government before the new general election is held, supposedly at the end of the year.

The PM's major stumbling block

The new cabinet line-up is not a cure-all formula for the Surayud government's sagging popularity, so long as heavyweights in Government House still do their job half-heartedly without any sense of urgency.

After seven months into this government's term, more and more people are losing their patience and have nicknamed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and his team "a hermit who raises turtles", for their slow pace of work.

Gen Surayud need not look very far because the major stumbling block is right by his side: his secretary-general, Pongthep Tesprateep.

Even the cabinet members have been scratching their heads after their proposals took weeks to reach Gen Surayud's table. All think-tanks are becoming weary.

The same fate befell the Yu Dee Mee Suk (Happy Living) project. The 10-billion-baht project, aimed at promoting sufficiency economy development in rural areas, is the government's latest counter-attack against the capitalism-based small, medium and large (SML) community scheme of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

After the project's curtain-raising in February, Gen Pongthep has yet to issue any guiding regulations.

As such, government officials have no clue as to how to sell the idea to the locals to win their support. All trips set up for the prime minister to view the progress of the project have been cancelled, as a result.

It is said that some cabinet members or public agencies coming up with bright ideas on how to brush up the government's image have to visit the secretary-general's office at least three or four times to explain to him and make him fully understand.

Such a time-consuming working style of Gen Pongthep has given the cabinet a headache.

"The PM's secretary-general is a vital post that requires a competent, charismatic and knowledgeable person. The secretary-general should be instrumental in coordinating the work and drawing up strategies for the prime minister," said one cabinet member.

"Gen Pongthep cannot match any of his predecessors."

To put to rest the mounting public pressure, Gen Surayud is now likely to shape up his entire cabinet to more quickly address certain pressing problems.

It is a shame, however, that the prime minister has overlooked this serious drawback in his own team.

It may be true, it may be a mixture of truth and fiction - but someone is stirring it up, and the Post is read by all the players in this little drama. As I said, this is just a sample - there's plenty more if you look for it. Some of the stuff in the Nation is even more sensational.

I hope I'm wrong, but fear the worst.

Every discussion relating to the current state of affairs in Thailand and of the short as well as long term picture, depends on an understanding of the coup- how and why it happened. There are of course various theories- but the most interesting comes from one of the key players- Sondhi L- in this interview submitted in another thread by LaoPo.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ID27Ae01.html

It will not help those who want a simple prediction- but it helps explain the context of what is going on.

[hammered]

I know it is very dangerous to believe all you read in the press, but there has been an increasing groundswell of 'behind the scenes' news and gossip - some of it surprisingly frank and provocative - in all the English language press - which leads me to suspect that things are really heading for a major confrontation.

Just take this little snippet in yesterday's Post as an example:

Unusual step to heal rift

The public's growing disenchantment with the government is causing the coup-makers much grief / Sources say the PM should do something about a major stumbling block, who happens to be his own secretary-general / With Mr Thaksin out of the picture, no one wants to be chairman of his Class 10 alumni

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's recent move to invite the Council for National Security (CNS) chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to attend a cabinet meeting is unusual.

Gen Surayud's decision seems to confirm that a rift between the government leader and chief coup-maker exists.

Gen Sonthi reportedly is upset because he believes Gen Surayud, who is a former army chief, still considers him his subordinate. He believes he has moved on up the ladder, as the CNS chief with power to remove the prime minister.

Relations turned sour because Gen Sonthi felt he had been belittled by the prime minister.

As the government's performance failed to bring hope to the public, Gen Sonthi and key CNS figures share the common view that the council will be held responsible for the slow progress the government has made.

The CNS would have to take on responsibility after the government leaves office, as several CNS members would still be in government service. With the government and the CNS now reported to have different goals, speculation of a rift between them is rife.

Gen Sonthi recently discussed the problems with Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa. He wanted Mr Banharn to help raise certain matters with a phuyai at Sisao Theves residence, so that the phuyai passes on to Gen Surayud the discomfort of the CNS and finds ways to patch up the differences between them.

The invitation of the CNS chief to attend the cabinet session was one of the measures designed to mend the soured relations between Gen Surayud and Gen Sonthi.

The CNS chairman admitted his relations with Gen Surayud have improved following talks mediated by the respected figure.

However, there have been moves by some CNS members and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to put pressure on Gen Surayud to resign in May, to pave the way for the CNS to find another person to run the country, or set up a national government before the new general election is held, supposedly at the end of the year.

The PM's major stumbling block

The new cabinet line-up is not a cure-all formula for the Surayud government's sagging popularity, so long as heavyweights in Government House still do their job half-heartedly without any sense of urgency.

After seven months into this government's term, more and more people are losing their patience and have nicknamed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and his team "a hermit who raises turtles", for their slow pace of work.

Gen Surayud need not look very far because the major stumbling block is right by his side: his secretary-general, Pongthep Tesprateep.

Even the cabinet members have been scratching their heads after their proposals took weeks to reach Gen Surayud's table. All think-tanks are becoming weary.

The same fate befell the Yu Dee Mee Suk (Happy Living) project. The 10-billion-baht project, aimed at promoting sufficiency economy development in rural areas, is the government's latest counter-attack against the capitalism-based small, medium and large (SML) community scheme of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

After the project's curtain-raising in February, Gen Pongthep has yet to issue any guiding regulations.

As such, government officials have no clue as to how to sell the idea to the locals to win their support. All trips set up for the prime minister to view the progress of the project have been cancelled, as a result.

It is said that some cabinet members or public agencies coming up with bright ideas on how to brush up the government's image have to visit the secretary-general's office at least three or four times to explain to him and make him fully understand.

Such a time-consuming working style of Gen Pongthep has given the cabinet a headache.

"The PM's secretary-general is a vital post that requires a competent, charismatic and knowledgeable person. The secretary-general should be instrumental in coordinating the work and drawing up strategies for the prime minister," said one cabinet member.

"Gen Pongthep cannot match any of his predecessors."

To put to rest the mounting public pressure, Gen Surayud is now likely to shape up his entire cabinet to more quickly address certain pressing problems.

It is a shame, however, that the prime minister has overlooked this serious drawback in his own team.

It may be true, it may be a mixture of truth and fiction - but someone is stirring it up, and the Post is read by all the players in this little drama. As I said, this is just a sample - there's plenty more if you look for it. Some of the stuff in the Nation is even more sensational.

I hope I'm wrong, but fear the worst.

Every discussion relating to the current state of affairs in Thailand and of the short as well as long term picture, depends on an understanding of the coup- how and why it happened. There are of course various theories- but the most interesting comes from one of the key players- Sondhi L- in this interview submitted in another thread by LaoPo.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ID27Ae01.html

It will not help those who want a simple prediction- but it helps explain the context of what is going on.

That is probably as good an analysis of the situation as anyone has provided. It is a shame the article didnt get into the second of the two possible reasons for the coup.

[Jai Dee]

Phuket Governor confirms there is no political undercurrent within the province

Phuket (ภูเก็ต) Governor Nirand Kalayanamitr (นิรันดร์ กัลยาณมิตร) affirms there is no political undercurrent in the province. However, he expresses concern on the situation in other provinces.

Phuket Governor has urged chiefs of relevant agencies to solve people’s plight proactively. He says his province has set up teams to specially take responsibility for each problem.

As for preparation for tackle problems if rallies are held, Phuket Governor says relevant agencies must travel down to the area and seek efficient solutions.

Phuket Governor says the province must take serious action against rallies if necessary as the rallies might cause trouble to local residents and tourists.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 27 April 2007

[ando]

Well, we know who the new interim government and the generals in power DONT want the people to vote for in the possible forthcoming election, but that kind of leaves a bit of a political vacuum doesn't it, since there doesn't seem to be anyone or any political machine capable of doing the job properly. Sort of like a headless snake writhing around in its blindness. You know things are in a mess when the coup leaders dont want to get directly involved in government for fear of being blamed for the mess they created. Maybe another coup would be in order to divert attention from the political black hole the military coup leaders have placed the country in.

[hammered]

Stratfor again have an analysis of the Thai situation in which they seem to think:

To date the charter hasnt included anything to set off mass demos

The TRT front groups need, but at the moment are struggling to get, an issue to fire people up

The Government will accept Buddhism as state religion if the issue gets big to take it out of play

Buddhism was previously politcised by TRT

Some quotes below:

Under Thaksin's rule, many Buddhist temples and sects became highly politicized and were bought off by the former prime minister's Thai Rak Thai party (TRT). Hence, suspicions that more might be going on than meets the eye were raised by Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on April 25. With Thaksin's support base and personal wealth still intact, Surayud fears -- not without justification -- that Thaksin is directly behind the monks' well-organized action.

Set against recent memories of Thaksin's checkered rule, the public might be more accepting of the draft, however. Meanwhile, Thaksin will continue to run his public relations machine and exercise political influence from abroad -- all the while reiterating his lack of ambition to return to politics while undermining the government. If he does return, it will not be until the fall, in the final countdown to December's elections, after which army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin is scheduled to retire. Until then, rallies, elephants and the odd bombing will continue to play a role in Thai politics.

If you want to read more go here: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=...;ncl=1115421735 scroll down and hit the link for stratfor

[sriracha john]

If you want to read more go here: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=...;ncl=1115421735 scroll down and hit the link for stratfor

As cashy as their premium memberships are, I'm surprised they still haven't closed that gaping back door.

I will say, however, that their current analysis seems more accurate than some other of their earlier efforts.

[hammered]

If you want to read more go here: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=...;ncl=1115421735 scroll down and hit the link for stratfor

As cashy as their premium memberships are, I'm surprised they still haven't closed that gaping back door.

I will say, however, that their current analysis seems more accurate than some other of their earlier efforts.

I only mention them because their analyses always seem to be a bit different from others!

[Mobi]

Well, we know who the new interim government and the generals in power DONT want the people to vote for in the possible forthcoming election, but that kind of leaves a bit of a political vacuum doesn't it, since there doesn't seem to be anyone or any political machine capable of doing the job properly. Sort of like a headless snake writhing around in its blindness. You know things are in a mess when the coup leaders dont want to get directly involved in government for fear of being blamed for the mess they created. Maybe another coup would be in order to divert attention from the political black hole the military coup leaders have placed the country in.

Well, I'm not too sure that it would be 'in order', but I have no doubt that your analysis of the political vacuum will be part of current CNS thinking, along with many other issues.

I am not convinced that fear of Thaksin's return is a smoke screen. These guys are paranoid about him and well they should be, he is bloody smart, extremely rich and still wields considerable influence. OK most of his army buddies have been transferred to inactive positions - which in some ways makes them even more dangerous should things start to go their way and they see their chance. Right now,they aint at all happy. and many feel very aggrieved. Their careers have been brought to a premature end.

These, and other factors are all part of the reasons that I feel another coup is in the offing.

[sriracha john]

If you want to read more go here: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=...;ncl=1115421735 scroll down and hit the link for stratfor

As cashy as their premium memberships are, I'm surprised they still haven't closed that gaping back door.

I will say, however, that their current analysis seems more accurate than some other of their earlier efforts.

I only mention them because their analyses always seem to be a bit different from others!

That's fine by me. I enjoy reading their material. They seem to run hot and cold... but are often very accurate at times... as the current one seems to be. Thank you for the link on that. I enjoy avoiding their hefty fees...

[MiG16]

These, and other factors are all part of the reasons that I feel another coup is in the offing.

IF another coup takes place, it will be even more worrying cos most likely head of the coup will be Gen. Saprang....

Im not even gonna comment on my sentiments about him...but word has it that even army people up to the rank of 'Phol Tri' are afraid of him. (also General level...but theres sub level one, 2, 3 .....im not good with the english equivalent of ranks.....)

[Jai Dee]

Police to find ways to control PTV rally at Sanam Luang this evening

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Pol Lt Gen Adisorn Nonsri (อดิศร นนทรีย์) will join a meeting with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and authorities at 14.00 hours today, to seek ways to control PTV’s rally at Sanam Luang this evening.

The meeting will concern measures to prevent chaos during the rally and will consider the possibility of intervention by the third party. Some of officials have been deployed to observe situation during the rally and see whether the rally has defamed any person.

Pol Lt Gen Adisorn will observe the situation by himself at 19.00 hours.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 27 April 2007

[hammered]

Well, we know who the new interim government and the generals in power DONT want the people to vote for in the possible forthcoming election, but that kind of leaves a bit of a political vacuum doesn't it, since there doesn't seem to be anyone or any political machine capable of doing the job properly. Sort of like a headless snake writhing around in its blindness. You know things are in a mess when the coup leaders dont want to get directly involved in government for fear of being blamed for the mess they created. Maybe another coup would be in order to divert attention from the political black hole the military coup leaders have placed the country in.

Well, I'm not too sure that it would be 'in order', but I have no doubt that your analysis of the political vacuum will be part of current CNS thinking, along with many other issues.

I am not convinced that fear of Thaksin's return is a smoke screen. These guys are paranoid about him and well they should be, he is bloody smart, extremely rich and still wields considerable influence. OK most of his army buddies have been transferred to inactive positions - which in some ways makes them even more dangerous should things start to go their way and they see their chance. Right now,they aint at all happy. and many feel very aggrieved. Their careers have been brought to a premature end.

These, and other factors are all part of the reasons that I feel another coup is in the offing.

You could also add bloody vindcitive and not averse to a bit of bloodshed.

[John K]

Police to find ways to control PTV rally at Sanam Luang this evening

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Pol Lt Gen Adisorn Nonsri (อดิศร นนทรีย์) will join a meeting with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and authorities at 14.00 hours today, to seek ways to control PTV’s rally at Sanam Luang this evening.

The meeting will concern measures to prevent chaos during the rally and will consider the possibility of intervention by the third party. Some of officials have been deployed to observe situation during the rally and see whether the rally has defamed any person.

Pol Lt Gen Adisorn will observe the situation by himself at 19.00 hours.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 27 April 2007

Cloud seeding may be a thought.

[Abrak]

Assuming both the TRT and Democrats are dissolved by the constitutional tribunal at the end of May, the political landscape in Thailand might at first glance appear something of a 'black hole'. But there are a few things we can be pretty sure of....

(1) Thaksin will certainly finance a party to fight the elections (assuming they take place) simply as a measure to protect his future best interests. Who will be his lapdog? Not Somkid - he is persona non grata with Thaksin now.

(2) The army will do the same and as they control the government they are well placed to control the election result. (They need to protect their ass as much as Thaksin).

(3) The Democrat party will simply not go away. Chuan is quite likely to return (he is no longer a party executive) and may well be financed by Sanan.

(4) Opportunities will also open up for others of the old guard - Banharn, Chavalit (perhaps). Most of the ex-TRT will go to the highest bidder.

As an aside, Apirak, the governor of Bangkok may be the first casualty as he is an executive of the Democrat party - he will theoretically have to resign his governorship of Bangkok.

[Mobi]

As an aside, Apirak, the governor of Bangkok may be the first casualty as he is an executive of the Democrat party - he will theoretically have to resign his governorship of Bangkok.

Also, as an aside, from what i hear Khun Apirak is none too popular in The higher echelons of the Democrat party.

Apparently he has an 'annoying habit' of speaking his mind to employees, and fellow democrats, and they don't like it one little bit. He tries to run Bangkok efficiently and has no time for all the usual bullshit, and and is even more abrasive than his predecessor, 'Chef' Samak.

They're all up in arms. After all he came to the party as the CEO of a successfully run business, so he's really not much use to them as a politician.

I doubt he'll lose too much sleep if he has to resign.

[Abrak]

As an aside, Apirak, the governor of Bangkok may be the first casualty as he is an executive of the Democrat party - he will theoretically have to resign his governorship of Bangkok.

Also, as an aside, from what i hear Khun Apirak is none too popular in The higher echelons of the Democrat party.

Apparently he has an 'annoying habit' of speaking his mind to employees, and fellow democrats, and they don't like it one little bit. He tries to run Bangkok efficiently and has no time for all the usual bullshit, and and is even more abrasive than his predecessor, 'Chef' Samak.

They're all up in arms. After all he came to the party as the CEO of a successfully run business, so he's really not much use to them as a politician.

I doubt he'll lose too much sleep if he has to resign.

Dont you mean the Democrats wont lose much sleep if he has to resign!

I heard that if he was forced to resign he might nominate his wife for the job - that would kind of make a mockery of the whole process...

Apirak's next political move will be worth watching - as you say it is not obvious he is going to remain with the Democrats - and he is a very popular force in Bangkok. (The idea that the Democrats will clean up in Bangkok in any election is by no means a foregone conclusion.)

[John K]

Assuming both the TRT and Democrats are dissolved by the constitutional tribunal at the end of May, the political landscape in Thailand might at first glance appear something of a 'black hole'. But there are a few things we can be pretty sure of....

(1) Thaksin will certainly finance a party to fight the elections (assuming they take place) simply as a measure to protect his future best interests. Who will be his lapdog? Not Somkid - he is persona non grata with Thaksin now.

(2) The army will do the same and as they control the government they are well placed to control the election result. (They need to protect their ass as much as Thaksin).

(3) The Democrat party will simply not go away. Chuan is quite likely to return (he is no longer a party executive) and may well be financed by Sanan.

(4) Opportunities will also open up for others of the old guard - Banharn, Chavalit (perhaps). Most of the ex-TRT will go to the highest bidder.

As an aside, Apirak, the governor of Bangkok may be the first casualty as he is an executive of the Democrat party - he will theoretically have to resign his governorship of Bangkok.

I like your future thinking. Assuming all the major parties get flushed, there will be at least 3 months of frenzy posturing before campaigning can officially begin. I don’t think it will be like you say similar to just putting your sim card in a new phone. Your implication of puppet politics may be the case, but before I can comment I need to see what the penalties are for the puppet masters. It may be they will need to spend jail time for not playing by the rules for the remainder of the 5 years, and be banned for another 5 or forever. I just don’t know at this time. Does anyone have a copy of the law on this?

[Abrak]

"In the case where a political party has been dissolved upon inconformity with section 35 or section 62 or committing any act under section 66, a person who used to be a member of the Executive Committee of the dissolved political party shall not, within the period of five years as from the date of the dissolution, apply for the formation of a new political party, be a member of an Executive Committee of political party nor be a promoter of a new political party under section 8."

So what this means is that say Newin Chidchob receives a 5 year political red card - of course Chow Chow Chidchob - his erstwhile poodle - will still end up as the MP for Buriram.... but that is a different story.....

[John K]

OK thanks for the law post. Although you logic is sound I think it is a bit premature. The’ what if’ of May 30 has yet to be decided. I see between now and then as a very dangerous time as this all comes to a peek. I don’t know if it will be as high of a peek as September in the days leading up to the coup, but certainly that would be a goal of Thaksin. It would not surprise me if we hear of one or more assassination attempts between now and then. The stakes are very high.

[Plus]

Also, as an aside, from what i hear Khun Apirak is none too popular in The higher echelons of the Democrat party.

Apparently he has an 'annoying habit' of speaking his mind to employees, and fellow democrats, and they don't like it one little bit. He tries to run Bangkok efficiently and has no time for all the usual bullshit, and and is even more abrasive than his predecessor, 'Chef' Samak.

They're all up in arms. After all he came to the party as the CEO of a successfully run business, so he's really not much use to them as a politician.

I doubt he'll lose too much sleep if he has to resign.

He wasn't very successful at all, he had big posts, true, but didn't accomplish anything extraordinary. My impression was that he screwed one company after another for benefit payments and that was all his contribution.

I heard his former subordinates didn't like his working style at all. I suppose you can say he is not for usual bullshit, you can also say he is a lot of hot air, very annoying when you are trying to work.

[Mobi]

Also, as an aside, from what i hear Khun Apirak is none too popular in The higher echelons of the Democrat party.

Apparently he has an 'annoying habit' of speaking his mind to employees, and fellow democrats, and they don't like it one little bit. He tries to run Bangkok efficiently and has no time for all the usual bullshit, and and is even more abrasive than his predecessor, 'Chef' Samak.

They're all up in arms. After all he came to the party as the CEO of a successfully run business, so he's really not much use to them as a politician.

I doubt he'll lose too much sleep if he has to resign.

He wasn't very successful at all, he had big posts, true, but didn't accomplish anything extraordinary. My impression was that he screwed one company after another for benefit payments and that was all his contribution.

I heard his former subordinates didn't like his working style at all. I suppose you can say he is not for usual bullshit, you can also say he is a lot of hot air, very annoying when you are trying to work.

Ermm... you obviously know better than I.

Maybe you worked for him?

Anyone who start his working life making dough in Pizza hut and rises to become CEO of Grammy, and then CEO of TA Orange (Now True Move) can't be completely useless in my book.

So he didn't accomplish anything 'extraordinary' ?

From pizzas, to Granmmy, to Ta Orange, to Bangkok Governor?

No, I guess you're right, not very extraordinary.

And his subordinates didn't like him? Really??

That sounds like someone I might hire if I was in the hiring business