France sees nearly 7,400 new daily coronavirus cases in exponential surge

[rooster59]

France sees nearly 7,400 new daily coronavirus cases in exponential surge

By Geert De Clercq

 

FILE PHOTO: A health worker, wearing a protective suit and a face mask, administers a nasal swab to a patient at a testing site for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) installed at the Bassin de la Villette in Paris, France, August 25, 2020. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

 

PARIS (Reuters) - France reported 7,379 new confirmed coronavirus cases on Friday, the most since lockdown, in what the health ministry described as an exponential surge just days before millions of children are due to return to school for the first time since March.

 

The daily tally was just shy of the record 7,578 high set on March 31, at the peak of an initial wave of COVID-19 infections that paralysed Europe. The surge has raised the possibility that the government could be forced to shut the country down again.

 

"We're doing everything to avoid another lockdown, and in particular a nationwide lockdown," President Emmanuel Macron told journalists earlier on Friday. He added it would be dangerous to rule out any scenario.

 

In a weekly review of the pandemic, the health ministry said the country was seeing an "exponential progression of virus transmission".

 

Like other hard-hit western European countries, France imposed a sudden and strict lockdown in March, during which most residents were confined to their homes. The restrictions were gradually lifted from May 11 after infections sharply dropped.

 

The authorities are now searching for ways to limit the spread of the disease without a new lockdown. On Friday, Parisians were ordered to wear masks at all times outdoors in the capital.

 

The reopening of schools on Tuesday next week has been widely anticipated as a major step back towards normality. More than 12 million children will return to school, most for the first time in more than five months.

 

So far, the rapid increase in case numbers has yet to lead to a similar surge in hospitalisations or deaths. The ministry reported 20 new COVID-19 deaths on Friday, raising the cumulative total to 30,596. The number of people in hospital with the disease was unchanged at 4,535 and the number in intensive care rose by six to 387.

 

Authorities say the virus is now spreading among younger people who are less likely to show severe symptoms.

 

Two weeks after France's lockdown ended on May 11, the number of daily new infections fell to a low of 115 and a seven-day average low of 272. But as the country gradually reopened restaurants, museums and shopping malls, the number of new confirmed cases rose to about 500 per day by the end of June.

 

That doubled to around 1,000 per day by the end of July, doubled again to around 2,000 by mid-August, and surged above 5,000 this week.

 

(Reporting by Geert De Clercq; Editing by Peter Graff)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-29

 

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[Tug]

Yeiks! Good luck getting a handle on it my prayers are with the people of France 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

The authorities are now searching for ways to limit the spread of the disease without a new lockdown.

Good, the last thing countries need is to introduce fresh blanket lockdowns, the worlds economies are sunk as it is and the effects disastrous. New infections are now being driven by young people who have strong immune systems are are able to cope well with covid. Deaths in France are still minuscule, yes there's a lag but its clear as witnessed from other countries with a resurgence that the death rate is very small and not worth the toll of repeated devastating lockdowns.

[rcummings]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Good, the last thing countries need is to introduce fresh blanket lockdowns, the worlds economies are sunk as it is and the effects disastrous. New infections are now being driven by young people who have strong immune systems are are able to cope well with covid. Deaths in France are still minuscule, yes there's a lag but its clear as witnessed from other countries with a resurgence that the death rate is very small and not worth the toll of repeated devastating lockdowns.

It does seem that the resurgence of Covid infections in Europe so far has not resulted in many fatalities even taking into account lag time. Would that were the case in the USA where Donald Trump and company pushed for reopening way too early.

[Pattaya Spotter]

Not good...but they more or less went back to normal over the summer didn't they...opened their borders and went on their August holidays from reports I saw. I guess Thailand is still doing the right thing keeping the borders mostly shutdown.

[vermin on arrival]

Still only 386 serious cases there, about .25% of active cases

Edited August 29, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[candide]

6 hours ago, rcummings said:

It does seem that the resurgence of Covid infections in Europe so far has not resulted in many fatalities even taking into account lag time. Would that were the case in the USA where Donald Trump and company pushed for reopening way too early.

One of the main reason being that mainly young people are infected. There's still a risk they may then infect older people.

[from the home of CC]

imo, wherever it gets cold enough to force people inside they're in for the winter from hell..

Edited August 29, 2020 by from the home of CC

[Pattaya Spotter]

55 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

imo, wherever it gets cold enough to force people inside they're in for the winter from hell..

That's a real possibility. 

[3NUMBAS]

spain has more at 9700 and its a record

[3NUMBAS]

https://sports.yahoo.com/health-workers-pandemic-tour-france-big-ask-030517633--spt.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANH5RJtMGILLPB5H2NAHepR8svp0J78HsJG6Zx-qCu8BP8NY3RQqJBEeSosVBYAQkIG0LFfs8IxB_tGAPxQ6Xo0OsxGcUVyfpbMggxKG67BaOPj0zih84ijhDWtw7td9ZMtI2K5eR1fLamrBifdP-aNyPJg0JDnwmA2dF3D20kLV

 

NICE, France (AP) -- Likely too busy racing to notice, the 176 riders starting the Tour de France this weekend will speed close to a sprawling hospital where caregiver Maude Leneveu is still reeling from furious months treating patients stricken and dying from COVID-19.

After her 12-hour days of cleaning their bedpans, changing the sheets, feeding them and trying to calm their fears, she'd then go home to breastfeed her baby daughter.

''We're all exhausted,'' the 30-year-old Leneveu says.

 

With coronavirus infections picking up again across France and her hospital in the Mediterranean city of Nice preparing for a feared second wave of patients by readying respirators and other gear, Leneveu suspects she might soon be called back to the coronavirus front lines. That would ruin her hopes of taking a short holiday after the Tour leaves Nice on Monday and heads deeper into France, after two days of racing around the city.

[Kadilo]

Another headline grabber with little to worry about if you actually analyse the reality. 
 

 

[tgw]

here are some very, very, very interesting figures about deaths of all causes by country in the EU:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

there are several countries which recorded no excess mortality. I'm unsure how to interpret the figures, is it because some countries have structurally bad healthcare, so the weaker persons died of other reasons before they could be infected with covid, or is it because some countries' healthcare infrastructure is overstretched, underfunded and can't cope with a healthcare crisis while other countries had extra healthcare capacity, especially in ICUs?

Edited August 29, 2020 by tgw

[vermin on arrival]

18 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

imo, wherever it gets cold enough to force people inside they're in for the winter from hell..

doubt it, but it will be worse than now.

[englishoak]

WE ALL GONNA DIE...again 

[vermin on arrival]

17 hours ago, tgw said:

here are some very, very, very interesting figures about deaths of all causes by country in the EU:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

there are several countries which recorded no excess mortality. I'm unsure how to interpret the figures, is it because some countries have structurally bad healthcare, so the weaker persons died of other reasons before they could be infected with covid, or is it because some countries' healthcare infrastructure is overstretched, underfunded and can't cope with a healthcare crisis while other countries had extra healthcare capacity, especially in ICUs?

so pretty much 65+ is the problem in week 14...actually also issues in the 45-65 range

Edited August 30, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[ftpjtm]

On 8/29/2020 at 8:07 AM, rcummings said:

It does seem that the resurgence of Covid infections in Europe so far has not resulted in many fatalities even taking into account lag time. Would that were the case in the USA where Donald Trump and company pushed for reopening way too early.

Just to keep things in perspective...

 

COVID Deaths per Million Population, 

Belgium 853

Spain 620

UK 611

Italy 587

Sweden 576

USA 564

France 469

[GinBoy2]

2 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

Just to keep things in perspective...

 

COVID Deaths per Million Population, 

Belgium 853

Spain 620

UK 611

Italy 587

Sweden 576

USA 564

France 469

This is the problem, the media storm over this and Donald's insatiable need to be on TV screens day and night can distort whats going on with respect to the US. 

 

The focus tends to be on the hot spots, but this is a huge country and when you look at it overall it's not bad. 

 

It would be nice to see a chart, similar to the ones I'm posting breaking the US down by State and then do a country to US State comparison. Maybe a US State to EU country breakdown?

 

I'm not sure what it all means, but for sure as we're beginning to see, lockdown or not this is a tenacious virus, and doesn't die down easily.

 

The resurgence of cases in countries like France is one of the reasons I don't believe the China claims that they have all but eradicated it!

 

 https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

 

 

[JustAnotherHun]

Do much testing and get many cases....

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Do much testing and get many cases....

This is where, as much as I hate myself for saying this, I actually agree with Trump on the issue of how much testing does the US do, compared to other countries.

 

You can play with the tool from John Hopkins, but for example;

 

The UK does 128 per 100K population daily tests

The US does 139 per 100K population daily tests.

 

And tellingly France does 17 per 100K population daily tests!

 

So the idea that the number of tests is what drives the numbers in my previous post just doesn't jive.

 

The chart was updated Aug 29th, so this is the latest data.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison

Edited August 30, 2020 by GinBoy2

[from the home of CC]

5 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

doubt it, but it will be worse than now.

hope you're correct but imo many nations will draw the knife across their own throats and although they are free to do that they shouldn't be surprised when ostracized by other countries (such as this one)..

Edited August 30, 2020 by from the home of CC

[from the home of CC]

22 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/health-workers-pandemic-tour-france-big-ask-030517633--spt.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANH5RJtMGILLPB5H2NAHepR8svp0J78HsJG6Zx-qCu8BP8NY3RQqJBEeSosVBYAQkIG0LFfs8IxB_tGAPxQ6Xo0OsxGcUVyfpbMggxKG67BaOPj0zih84ijhDWtw7td9ZMtI2K5eR1fLamrBifdP-aNyPJg0JDnwmA2dF3D20kLV

 

NICE, France (AP) -- Likely too busy racing to notice, the 176 riders starting the Tour de France this weekend will speed close to a sprawling hospital where caregiver Maude Leneveu is still reeling from furious months treating patients stricken and dying from COVID-19.

After her 12-hour days of cleaning their bedpans, changing the sheets, feeding them and trying to calm their fears, she'd then go home to breastfeed her baby daughter.

''We're all exhausted,'' the 30-year-old Leneveu says.

 

With coronavirus infections picking up again across France and her hospital in the Mediterranean city of Nice preparing for a feared second wave of patients by readying respirators and other gear, Leneveu suspects she might soon be called back to the coronavirus front lines. That would ruin her hopes of taking a short holiday after the Tour leaves Nice on Monday and heads deeper into France, after two days of racing around the city.

many folks don't realize the hard work that was put in to keep death rates down, Sure care has improved with knowledge of the virus but getting overwhelmed medically is a real possibility again with winter approaching. Once critical care folks are waiting for beds all bets are off for survival..

[candide]

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

This is where, as much as I hate myself for saying this, I actually agree with Trump on the issue of how much testing does the US do, compared to other countries.

 

You can play with the tool from John Hopkins, but for example;

 

The UK does 128 per 100K population daily tests

The US does 139 per 100K population daily tests.

 

And tellingly France does 17 per 100K population daily tests!

 

So the idea that the number of tests is what drives the numbers in my previous post just doesn't jive.

 

The chart was updated Aug 29th, so this is the latest data.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison

One should not believe anything Trump said.

The % of positive tests has increased since the beginning of July. The growth rate of cases has been higher than the growth rate of tests.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

[GinBoy2]

3 hours ago, candide said:

One should not believe anything Trump said.

The % of positive tests has increased since the beginning of July. The growth rate of cases has been higher than the growth rate of tests.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

This is where I can't get my head around the data.

 

So what makes one country's case/fatality rate higher than another?

 

From my previous post I just can't get my head around why there is such a wide distribution in case/fatalities.

 

I thought maybe if you took the top few, UK, Italy, Belgium, France and The Netherlands it could possibly be attributed to a generally older population, but then you get Mexico!

 

Now again many variables. Mexico has a generally younger population but with an awful health care system.

 

So how to normalize all this is a mystery to me

[candide]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

This is where I can't get my head around the data.

 

So what makes one country's case/fatality rate higher than another?

 

From my previous post I just can't get my head around why there is such a wide distribution in case/fatalities.

 

I thought maybe if you took the top few, UK, Italy, Belgium, France and The Netherlands it could possibly be attributed to a generally older population, but then you get Mexico!

 

Now again many variables. Mexico has a generally younger population but with an awful health care system.

 

So how to normalize all this is a mystery to me

I just replied about Trump says the increase in cases is due only to more testing.

About the more general issue you address, it seems to be quite complex, I agree.

My modest understanding is that at least two variables are very relevant to moderate comparison of raw figures between countries:

- the time of the first significant outburst. Not all countries started at the same time, I.e. US later than Italy

- density of population, I.e. UK density higher than US, N.Y. density higher than Texas

[Scott]

Please stay on topic, which is about France.   Comparisons are acceptable, but discussion needs to be on the situation as it applies to France.  

 

[Scott]

A post with misinformation removed.  

 

[ftpjtm]

19 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

 

It would be nice to see a chart, similar to the ones I'm posting breaking the US down by State and then do a country to US State comparison. Maybe a US State to EU country breakdown?

Most of that is available at Worldometers

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

The US states with the highest deaths per Million Population, NJ and NY, are roughly 4 times the rate of the whole of France. The states with the lowest, HI and AK are about 1/10 of France's deaths per Million.

[RayC]

16 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

This is where I can't get my head around the data.

 

So what makes one country's case/fatality rate higher than another?

 

From my previous post I just can't get my head around why there is such a wide distribution in case/fatalities.

 

I thought maybe if you took the top few, UK, Italy, Belgium, France and The Netherlands it could possibly be attributed to a generally older population, but then you get Mexico!

 

Now again many variables. Mexico has a generally younger population but with an awful health care system.

 

So how to normalize all this is a mystery to me

I think that age profile explains a lot (notwithstanding your comment re Mexico).  This is just (more) conjecture and has no statistical validity, but some contributory factors might be the following:

 

1) Different methods of recording data. For example, in Belgium ALL deaths in care homes are (were?) recorded as COVID related. As care home deaths account for +/-50% of total, it's possible the fatality figure is inflated.

 

2) Italy: First country in Europe to be widely affected. Virus was able to spread widely until measures enacted, therefore greater viral load? Also maybe strain was stronger in Italy vis-a-vis the rest of Europe? (Generally accepted that as viruses mutate, they become less potent).

 

3) The Netherlands: Very limited restrictions, therefore virus able to spread more easily. Greater viral load?

 

4) The UK: Late to enact restrictions. High population density (especially in cities) enabling virus to spread more easily. Therefore, greater viral load?

 

5) France: Similar to UK although restrictions enacted more quickly. 

 

As I say, all just conjecture on my part.

[DrTuner]

On 8/29/2020 at 3:51 PM, from the home of CC said:

imo, wherever it gets cold enough to force people inside they're in for the winter from hell..

Might be the opposite. It's the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions that are at risk. When they are cooped up inside a controlled environment, then they are protected. Young and healthy people that seem to be the bulk of these seem to get only mild symptoms.