France sees nearly 7,400 new daily coronavirus cases in exponential surge

[GinBoy2]

So to get back to France.

 

What did they do wrong to cause a spike?

 

This is what disturbs me about this whole thing.

 

So you lock down, trash the economy, then open up and another uptick in cases? Is that how this is going to work?

 

I think France did all the 'right' things yet it still it doesn't seem to have stopped the virus raising its ugly head again.

 

The increasing number of people re-infected seems to suggest, to me at least, that the herd immunity theory isn't going to apply to this virus.

 

So where we go from here remains a mystery to me

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, GinBoy2 said:

So to get back to France.

 

What did they do wrong to cause a spike?

Started testing on general population that is largely asymptomatic younger people?

[DrTuner]

On 8/30/2020 at 11:37 AM, vermin on arrival said:

so pretty much 65+ is the problem in week 14...actually also issues in the 45-65 range

The Y-axis is not the same in the graphs. They should be placed on top of each other, then it's evident the problems start at around 50+y and get worse as the age increases. Which correlates with pre-existing conditions, very few elderly are completely off meds these days.

[BillyB2008]

Why do they use „cases“ lately instead of infected people?

 

Because, in my opinion, there’s are 7.400 humans who tested positive for something that may resemble something that they think is a Corona VIRUS. 

[Sheryl]

2 minutes ago, BillyB2008 said:

Why do they use „cases“ lately instead of infected people?

 

Because, in my opinion, there’s are 7.400 humans who tested positive for something that may resemble something that they think is a Corona VIRUS. 

The tests are precise and specific to COVID-19

 

cases = infections (but not necessarily symptomatic ones)

 

 

[Sheryl]

On 8/29/2020 at 5:43 PM, tgw said:

here are some very, very, very interesting figures about deaths of all causes by country in the EU:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

there are several countries which recorded no excess mortality. I'm unsure how to interpret the figures, is it because some countries have structurally bad healthcare, so the weaker persons died of other reasons before they could be infected with covid, or is it because some countries' healthcare infrastructure is overstretched, underfunded and can't cope with a healthcare crisis while other countries had extra healthcare capacity, especially in ICUs?

 

Most likely the latter. Need to consider how widespread the epidemic was in a country also, as in places where it was mainly localized to a specific region, sending non-COVID patients to facilities elsewhere may have been an option.

 

Need to understand that excess mortality is not  only deaths people with COVID but also deaths in people who did not have COVID but died due to lack of or delayed  health care.

 

In NYC which was hit very hard and fast, hospital admissions for heart attacks and stroked plummeted while deaths at home from all causes skyrocketed. Of course many died at home of COVID but many also died at home of other things.

 

Countries vary both in the quality of care they were able to provide people with COVID and in the extent to which their overall health systems continued to function.

 

Many countries -- including Thailand - deferred all but emergency surgery for months at a stretch. The problem is that non-emergency does not mean non-urgent. Cancer surgeries, for example (diagnostic and otherwise) were cancelled. This comes at a price.

 

In addition to health services being compromised/procedures and treatments cancelled, people in many places refrained from going to the hospital due to fear of COVID or fear of being separated from their families.

 

I very much hope that as this settles down there is a serious re-examination of how best to handle and deliver  medical services during a pandemic. In an emergency of a few days to a week duration, cancelling all non-emergency procedures and admissions makes sense. In a crisis that drags on for months, it definitely does not and more nuanced, stratified triaging is called for.

 

 

 

[tgw]

12 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Most likely the latter. Need to consider how widespread the epidemic was in a country also, as in places where it was mainly localized to a specific region, sending non-COVID patients to facilities elsewhere may have been an option.

 

Need to understand that excess mortality is not  only deaths people with COVID but also deaths in people who did not have COVID but died due to lack of or delayed  health care.

 

In NYC which was hit very hard and fast, hospital admissions for heart attacks and stroked plummeted while deaths at home from all causes skyrocketed. Of course many died at home of COVID but many also died at home of other things.

 

Countries vary both in the quality of care they were able to provide people with COVID and in the extent to which their overall health systems continued to function.

 

Many countries -- including Thailand - deferred all but emergency surgery for months at a stretch. The problem is that non-emergency does not mean non-urgent. Cancer surgeries, for example (diagnostic and otherwise) were cancelled. This comes at a price.

 

In addition to health services being compromised/procedures and treatments cancelled, people in many places refrained from going to the hospital due to fear of COVID or fear of being separated from their families.

 

I very much hope that as this settles down there is a serious re-examination of how best to handle and deliver  medical services during a pandemic. In an emergency of a few days to a week duration, cancelling all non-emergency procedures and admissions makes sense. In a crisis that drags on for months, it definitely does not and more nuanced, stratified triaging is called for.

 

Most Western countries are now involuntarily following the Swedish model ... it seems democracies have no chance of avoiding a pandemic, so future viruses will spread - the objective of lockdown measures being to delay infections to allow healthcare systems to cope with the waves and minimize deaths, while Boris' "herd immunity" develops.

 

For a long time, the French healthcare system was considered the best in the world - but when we consider its performance vs. covid, it's comparable to Spain's and Italy's, while Germany, having much more ICU capacities, recorded about 70% less fatalities than France. That difference is likely to grow larger, because covid is now spreading exponentially in France.

 

[GinBoy2]

48 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

Most Western countries are now involuntarily following the Swedish model ... it seems democracies have no chance of avoiding a pandemic, so future viruses will spread - the objective of lockdown measures being to delay infections to allow healthcare systems to cope with the waves and minimize deaths, while Boris' "herd immunity" develops.

 

For a long time, the French healthcare system was considered the best in the world - but when we consider its performance vs. covid, it's comparable to Spain's and Italy's, while Germany, having much more ICU capacities, recorded about 70% less fatalities than France. That difference is likely to grow larger, because covid is now spreading exponentially in France.

 

I think you may be right in as much as everyone will follow the 'Swedish' model, although as I said in a previous post, with people now getting re-infected, the herd immunity premise might well not pan out.

 

France in my mind at least did it all right, yet still here we are.

 

I hope a vaccine is out there, but then we will get the anti vaxxer lobby out in force...do these people even remember polio?

 

I want my kids, all three of them who are in their 20's and 30's, to live the same life I have had.

 

They are young they should be out there enjoying life, being with friends.

 

Sadly for many of their generation thats been upended by Covid

Edited August 31, 2020 by GinBoy2

[vermin on arrival]

6 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

I think you may be right in as much as everyone will follow the 'Swedish' model, although as I said in a previous post, with people now getting re-infected, the herd immunity premise might well not pan out.

 

France in my mind at least did it all right, yet still here we are.

 

I hope a vaccine is out there, but then we will get the anti vaxxer lobby out in force...do these people even remember polio?

 

I want my kids, all three of them who are in their 20's and 30's, to live the same life I have had.

 

They are young they should be out there enjoying life, being with friends.

 

Sadly for many of their generation thats been upended by Covid

Your kids will be fine. They should go out and live life and take sensible precautions. Look at the serious cases now. Of the "active cases" in France, only .25% cases are serious (only 402 in the entirety of France). The death rate(cfr) will most likely be much lower than that. Then with all the untested asymptomatic, the ifr will be even lower. With new treatments and a change in the age demographic the fatality rate is plummeting. Probably most of the susceptible (very elderly people with multiple comorbidities) are already dead. This is currently not the disease that was advertised to us in January. This obsession with cases is not the correct way to view things now.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Edited August 31, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[from the home of CC]

23 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Might be the opposite. It's the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions that are at risk. When they are cooped up inside a controlled environment, then they are protected. Young and healthy people that seem to be the bulk of these seem to get only mild symptoms. 

hopefully you're correct but with the sociopath behavior displayed by many youth worldwide (with some having a total lack of caring for anything but themselves) imo they'll continue to kill the 'elderly and those with pre-existing conditions' especially when large segments of the population are obese - which has proven to be a liability with this virus.. One interesting fact is that the drier the air the better the spread of covid 19, the particles travel much further when not weighted down with moisture (that it picks up in higher humidity). In the winter when air is heated it of course dries..    

[vermin on arrival]

2 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

hopefully you're correct but with the sociopath behavior displayed by many youth worldwide (with some having a total lack of caring for anything but themselves) imo they'll continue to kill the 'elderly and those with pre-existing conditions' especially when large segments of the population are obese - which has proven to be a liability with this virus.. One interesting fact is that the drier the air the better the spread of covid 19, the particles travel much further when not weighted down with moisture (that it picks up in higher humidity). In the winter when air is heated it of course dries..    

For sure the winter in Europe will be a more suitable breeding ground for the virus. The question will be the size of the people of the people who can be infected based on immunity and the size of the pool of people who are susceptible to be killed by it. Some experts say that the more young and strong who get infected now the better it will be to protect the susceptible elderly in the winter. They also believe the majority or the susceptible elderly aged 65+ are already dead. The concern for the obese is a legitimate one since this brings the age down as a concern for serious and fatal cases.

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

The concern for the obese is a legitimate one since this brings the age down as a concern for serious and fatal cases.

Bit of darwinism in the play. Mother nature will release more pandemics when the population density gets higher and forests are encroached. Eventually it will balance out, no matter how hard humanity fights to fill every square millimeter on the planet with humans.

 

The best thing that could come out of this pandemic would be people becoming more aware of their lifestyle and it's effect on their health. Maybe skip 4 out of the six burgers per day.

Edited September 1, 2020 by DrTuner

[from the home of CC]

2 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

For sure the winter in Europe will be a more suitable breeding ground for the virus. The question will be the size of the people of the people who can be infected based on immunity and the size of the pool of people who are susceptible to be killed by it. Some experts say that the more young and strong who get infected now the better it will be to protect the susceptible elderly in the winter. They also believe the majority or the susceptible elderly aged 65+ are already dead. The concern for the obese is a legitimate one since this brings the age down as a concern for serious and fatal cases.

The South Africans are said to have reversed a surge by banning alcohol. The major outbreaks in the US can be traced to drinking in bars in many cases. What the SA's did would never be done in the UK, EU or USA. Drinking in bars/pubs this winter will perpetuate this virus till a vaccine is proven. 

[from the home of CC]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Bit of darwinism in the play. Mother nature will release more pandemics when the population density gets higher and forests are encroached. Eventually it will balance out, no matter how hard humanity fights to fill every square millimeter on the planet with humans.

 

The best thing that could come out of this pandemic would be people becoming more aware of their lifestyle and it's effect on their health. Maybe skip 4 out of the six burgers per day.

I agree, over population imo is the greatest danger to life in general - coupled with greed it is a sure prescription for eventual annihilation of our species. And maybe the next pandemic will primarily target the young (which would of changed the response of the world to this one 360 degrees)..

[vermin on arrival]

3 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

The South Africans are said to have reversed a surge by banning alcohol. The major outbreaks in the US can be traced to drinking in bars in many cases. What the SA's did would never be done in the UK, EU or USA. Drinking in bars/pubs this winter will perpetuate this virus till a vaccine is proven. 

Yeah I know they were banning loads of stuff in SA. A friend from SA who smokes and likes a beer was going insane. Haven't communicated with him in a while. Not sure if it really played out that way as the viral curves tend to move in a certain way. For sure, a pub would be an easy place to get it. Myself I don't understand why one couldn't enjoy a beer and smoke at home. Some experts believe that we are making too much of a lot of these mitigation strategies, and that the analysis is weak or we look for what we want to see. Of course the SA government would confirm that their strategies did what they said. I would want the viewpoint an impartial source through some kind of peer review or when viewed from a critical eye.

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed.