600 facing quarantine after Thailand’s first locally-acquired COVID infection for 100 days

[fraggleRock]

16 minutes ago, Jurg said:

Some people here in this forum seem to make fun or a joke out of this possible local Covid19 transmission recently here in Thailand.

I wish to make those people aware of the second wave in Melbourne Victoria Australia very recently , authorities failed to detect a major failure in their quarantine proceedures, resulting into a Stage 4 Lockdown for millions of people again. Additionally a massively prolonged State border closure to prevent the virus spreading into other States too. Hundreds of death with Covid19 recorded in Victoria. They are talking of some 100 billion dollars additional costs in their economy due to this latest Lockdown.

 

How would you feel being back in that scenario again? 

 

Covid19 infections are not a joke, but utter disaster if not very quickly brought under control.

I think you need to review https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers#total-cases-and-deaths-by-state-and-territory your post needs to reflect a more accurate picture... The deaths are mainly in the 70+ and above age group being one takeaway from the link above... and then compare that with the life expectancy in Australia https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/life-expectancy of being 80! There is a miniscule difference, so not exactly a pandemic is it, considering wearing a mask made from a sock and 2 elastic bands will save you from an horric death... SARS-COV-2 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it.  Actually significantly more people in this time frame have died of Pneumonia and Cancer to name but a few, and here in Thailand, road deaths dwarfs SARS-COV-2... so much distruction to economies over something that is merly a slightly more agressive flu to extreamly sick or pre mortem people..

[ExpatDraco]

31 minutes ago, Jurg said:

Some people here in this forum seem to make fun or a joke out of this possible local Covid19 transmission recently here in Thailand.

I wish to make those people aware of the second wave in Melbourne Victoria Australia very recently , authorities failed to detect a major failure in their quarantine proceedures, resulting into a Stage 4 Lockdown for millions of people again. Additionally a massively prolonged State border closure to prevent the virus spreading into other States too. Hundreds of death with Covid19 recorded in Victoria. They are talking of some 100 billion dollars additional costs in their economy due to this latest Lockdown.

 

How would you feel being back in that scenario again? 

 

Covid19 infections are not a joke, but utter disaster if not very quickly brought under control.

 

 

You still can't see the whole picture can't you? Start with: how deadly is Covid-19 really? And how can we stop a pandemic?

 

 

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Are 600 people really going to go into quarantine?

no, potentially many many more, juts imagine these 600 have been in contact with how many xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx it's a never ending calculation 555

[TERMINATOR3AB]

MMM  the 600  have to pay for  Quarantine ?

Well   next  few weeks  will tell  

Goodluck  Thailand

[Virt]

26 minutes ago, CanadaSam said:

Guys, please understand, this is a VIRUS, very similar to the common cold.

 

It does not kill everybody that gets it, in fact, an extremely small number of people who get it, die from it.

 

MOST people who get it, don't even suffer any bad symptoms!

 

So, my point is, can you stop the common cold?  No.  Can you stop covid?  No.

 

It is probably circulating around us right now, and the ONLY people who are found to have it, are the extremely small amount of people who are tested!

Here in Denmark about 25% of the entire population has been tested and I still don't know anyone in person who has been tested positive or had antibodies. 

I volunteered to participate in a study Novo Nordisk is doing here in Denmark where we employees in Denmark and the people in the household, get 3 bloodtest in a year, to track down how the disease is spreading, so it will be interesting in a year to see how many of us actually had covid 19. 

 

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

More than 1,000 everyday in USA. Thailand not have 1,000 total six months. Sure. 

USA testing millions of people on a daily basis, VS Thailand not testing 100 people a day/week or month thus no potential case, Thailand case "luckily" detected because the guy was going to jail/government facility, had he stayed out of trouble not arrested, he will be walking/running around spreading it like hot cakes, think about it for a minute.....

[Sheryl]

2 hours ago, rwill said:

One of the first things you have to know is what type of test did they use.  There are basically 2 types.  Those that test for antibodies and those that test for the actual virus.  If it was an antibody test he could of been exposed to the virus some time ago but not currently have it.

 

The Thai health authorities are well aware of the difference. He tested positive for the virus in 2 separate DNA PCR tests. In addition, he is symptomatic.

 

Where he got it from is of course what they are trying to find out, along with whether he passed it on to anyone else.

 

There have been other recent indications of continued cases in  Thailand: someone arriving in Japan from Thailand who tested positive on arrival and one arriving in Malaysia, both I think asymptomatic.

 

It is not at all surprising that there would still be some local transmission taking place -- this is exactly why the continued requirements for mask-wearing.  In fact it would be surprising if the virus had 100% died out.  The 3 month lockdown will have greatly slowed transmission but to 100% eradicate it is very, very difficult.

 

What is clear is that levels of local transmission are low. Because there would otherwise be more cases being detected at hospitals.  From experience elsewhere, it is only when cases are in the tens of thousands that it becomes evident from hospital admissions that something is happening. This would be even more true in Thailand than in the West given the younger population.

 

Now whether they will stay low, is the question. Hopefully yes but no absolute guarantee.

[Sheryl]

42 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So have the traced each of the people these 600 have been in contact with yet and the 600 that each of those 3600 people were in contact with and so on?

 

 There is no need to trace the contacts of the contacts unless the initial contacts are found to be positive which so far none have been. (Which also means the source if his infection has nto yet been found...)

[smudger1951]

1 hour ago, lensta said:

Don't worry, this government will do everything possible not to open up the borders of Thailand.

Now ain't that the truth. Covid-19 has allowed governments to pursue long wished for agendas.

[SteveK]

If only they were this hysterical about keeping corruption at zero.............. 

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, BernieOnTour said:

I will add some more questions:

 

1) So, you tested someone positive for the (assumed, not proven) RNA of a virus, after millions or billions of reduplications: Did he show any symptoms, is he sick ?

 

2) Even under best conditions the specifity of a rPCR test ist 99.3% - so: 7 false positive per 1000 tests. - Did you confirm the result with a second test ?

 

3) TiT ... are you sure that: taking the probes, transport, preparation of the probes and the test itself were done exactly according to the rules? - Otherwise, the specificity easily drops to 90% with 100 false positives per 1000.

 

4) The rPCR test is not a yes/no test like a pregnancy test (easily confirmed after 9 months 555), you have a “sliding” target depending on the number of cycles, you run for duplication... - Where did you cut off the test? After 20 cycles ( ~ 1 million reduplications), 30 cycles (~ 1 billion) ... or did you let it run, until you had a positive result, eg. 40 cycles ( ~ 1000 billion reduplications) ???

 

 

In summary: If you are a someone of “influence”, who wants “No Covid”, cut off the cycle rate of PCR tests early, eg. 15 cycles. If you want “Covid”, make sure, the cycles keep going, eg. 40 cycles. ???? Make sure, rPCR tests are perceived as showing Covid, omit secondary diagnostic checks !

 

 

He is (or was) symptomatic

 

He was tested twice. that is why the first press release said "may be", it was after the first result with the second test pending.

 

 

[Harry Fingerling]

21 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Maybe, as a DJ, he played "walk like an Egyptian"... unaware that anything Egyptian is highly contagious... 

Beware of pyramid sellers. ????????

[Ireland32]

4 minutes ago, SteveK said:

If only they were this hysterical about keeping corruption at zero.............. 

If no corruption why live here , go back home works for me 

[Flying Saucage]

10 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

There have been other recent indications of continued cases in  Thailand: someone arriving in Japan from Thailand who tested positive on arrival and one arriving in Malaysia, both I think asymptomatic.

 

It is not at all surprising that there would still be some local transmission taking place -- this is exactly why the continued requirements for mask-wearing.  In fact it would be surprising if the virus had 100% died out.  The 3 month lockdown will have greatly slowed transmission but to 100% eradicate it is very, very difficult.

 

What is clear is that levels of local transmission are low. Because there would otherwise be more cases being detected at hospitals.  From experience elsewhere, it is only when cases are in the tens of thousands that it becomes evident from hospital admissions that something is happening. This would be even more true in Thailand than in the West given the younger population.

 

Now whether they will stay low, is the question. Hopefully yes but no absolute guarantee.

Exactly my thoughts

[papa al]

22 hours ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

Question is where did he get it?

Tests are not reliable.

Maybe 80%

false positives.

 

 

 

[Sheryl]

7 minutes ago, papa al said:

Tests are not reliable.

Maybe 80%

false positives.

 

 

 

 

Untrue. The rate of false positive on a COVID  PCR test is only 1-2%.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808

 

The odds of 2 separate positive tests both being false positives in about 1 in one thousand.

 

This is why they always do a second test before considering a case to be confirmed.

 

False negatives on the other hand are relatively common (though nothing like 80%)

[papa al]

2 hours ago, rwill said:

One of the first things you have to know is what type of test did they use.  There are basically 2 types.  Those that test for antibodies and those that test for the actual virus.  If it was an antibody test he could of been exposed to the virus some time ago but not currently have it.

They do not test for the actual virus.

PCR amplifies sample RNA maybe associated with actual C-19.

Done correctly, the test is so-so accurate;

done improperly,  ...

 

[Sheryl]

Just now, papa al said:

They do not test for the actual virus.

PCR amplifies sample RNA maybe associated with actual C-19.

Done correctly, the test is so-so accurate;

done improperly,  ...

 

 

It is not "so so" accurate. It has a known sensitivity and specificity. Specificity is very high (98-99%), sensitivity less so, especially early in the disease.

 

And the RNA strand tested for is quite specific to the virus.

 

 

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, riclag said:

Which reminds me,off to Tesco!

Lao Khao will kill most thing. That's why I drink it. With sprite .Never mind I'll be in Bkk tomorrow.

A bit late but happy New year. Anything for a party. 

[Nicknoodle]

I highly doubt that the virus was ever eliminated from the community as their testing regime is poor. Many locals living in provincial communities I’m sure still have Covid-19 within and spreading in their community.  

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, Jurg said:

Some people here in this forum seem to make fun or a joke out of this possible local Covid19 transmission recently here in Thailand.

I wish to make those people aware of the second wave in Melbourne Victoria Australia very recently , authorities failed to detect a major failure in their quarantine proceedures, resulting into a Stage 4 Lockdown for millions of people again. Additionally a massively prolonged State border closure to prevent the virus spreading into other States too. Hundreds of death with Covid19 recorded in Victoria. They are talking of some 100 billion dollars additional costs in their economy due to this latest Lockdown.

 

How would you feel being back in that scenario again? 

 

Covid19 infections are not a joke, but utter disaster if not very quickly brought under control.

The Australian government's reaction was totally over he top. I thought the first lockdown was a mistake and so was this one; it's only something you do when you fear the health care system will be overrun. In the long term, you cannot control the virus. Yes, you need to try and mitigate and take precautions, especially to limit the viral load, and make sure your health care system can be able to manage whatever cases occur, but this isn't the black death.

 

Also, realize the vast majority of the deaths are in elderly people with multiple comorbidities, many of whom are near the end of their lives. You certainly don't want your elderly people to die if you can help it. At the beginning of this pandemic I thought it was wrong to minimize the deaths of these elderly people, but 6 months in, I think, do you destroy the economy of the world, and the lives of 100s of millions of people(or is it billions) in order to protect what would primarily be a few million old and sick? At this point, I don't think you do. I hope people don't think that's callous. For sure, I don't want people to get sick and die, but 150,000 people are dying everyday in the world from multiple causes. We are mortal, and we will die.

 

I heard a few weeks back that in their effort to combat the virus, Australia was spending what amounted to 1 billion dollars per covid death. That seems insane to me and will be a long term disaster for the Australian state. Do I think any state should spend 1 billion dollars to prevent my death or that of my aged parents? No.

[papa al]

17 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Untrue. The rate of false positive on a COVID  PCR test is only 1-2%.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808

 

The odds of 2 separate positive tests both being false positives in about 1 in one thousand.

 

This is why they always do a second test before considering a case to be confirmed.

 

False negatives on the other hand are relatively common (though nothing like 80%)

I see what you are saying Sheryl.

Thanks for your reference; I will study it.

Report in one journal is just that.

Reports vary.

The journals are not immune to politics.

Will try to retrieve references for you later.

One problem with verifying these PCR tests

is that there is no gold-standard to compare to.

PCR testing is tricky and assumes a lot.

/////  

It has been estimated that there are over 380 trillion viruses inhabiting a human, a community collectively known as the humanvirome. 

///// 

...So they know for sure that

none of the normal 380,000,000,000,000 virions

could illicit a false pos?

Are you sure Sheryl?

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by papa al

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, Virt said:

Here in Denmark about 25% of the entire population has been tested and I still don't know anyone in person who has been tested positive or had antibodies. 

I volunteered to participate in a study Novo Nordisk is doing here in Denmark where we employees in Denmark and the people in the household, get 3 bloodtest in a year, to track down how the disease is spreading, so it will be interesting in a year to see how many of us actually had covid 19. 

 

You can get it and not have antibodies due to t-cell and cross coronavirus immunity. Doctors still don't fully understand all the factors involved in immunity for covid. It does exist and it is significant.

[Kadilo]

33 minutes ago, Ireland32 said:

If I hear dirty Farang again from your  non -original Fangirls ,  get some new material every damn day it’s either dirty Farang or road deaths or Flu Bots if you don’t like it Go

Its a shame that everyone cannot be as original as yourself. 

[lensta]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

I listen to doctor advice about how stop spread the covid virus. 

 

The people in the video listen to youtube conspiracy loons. Same sheep. Stick poison up a... is good idea? Trump want to stick UV light same.

 

People with high education are less likely than people with low education to believe in conspiracy theories.

https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2016-57821-001

 

Yes Yinn, doctors never tell lies, never take bribes, and most of all, never make mistakes.

After reading your posts, i have come to the conclusion that you are a fragile being and just another  sheep.

[SteveK]

5 minutes ago, lensta said:

Yes Yinn, doctors never tell lies, never take bribes, and most of all, never make mistakes.

After reading your posts, i have come to the conclusion that you are a fragile being and just another  sheep.

Yinn may be fragile, and a sheep, but Thai he is not.

[Eddy Ozark]

Better stock up on the booze while there is any left and while I can still go to some open shops. Perhaps looking at three months of lockdown if experience tells me anything. Better get a spare mobile phone too in case this one konks out on me anytime soon.

[visacrack]

This global fight is between the addicted fatso majority (also in the gov), against the reasonable minority that keep check of their fat. No excess fat > immune system working well > covid = flu. Would the present situation be imaginable for flu? 
 

 
 

[spiekerjozef]

So which Wuhan resident slipped across the border?

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by spiekerjozef

[spiekerjozef]

14 days quarantine is not long enough. 1 month.