Thailand tourism collapse poses existential crisis for airlines

[smudger1951]

8 hours ago, The Farang said:

I give Thailand credit for trying to boost tourism.  I saw a commercial here un USA from Amazing Thailand promoting tourism.   Never saw ads before from Thailand.  But, Thailand needs to change focus from tourism and make it lucrative for businesses to set up shop in Thailand.  Big companies that can build headquarters.   That will bring foreigners and also can be a silent salesman for Thailand.   Can't put your eggs in one basket.

Are you serious ? Thailand was doing everything to obstruct tourism and long term stays, even before covid-19. Quite honestly, after this episode would you relocate your HQ to LOS ? 

[Chongalulu]

8 hours ago, The Farang said:

I give Thailand credit for trying to boost tourism.  I saw a commercial here un USA from Amazing Thailand promoting tourism.   Never saw ads before from Thailand.  But, Thailand needs to change focus from tourism and make it lucrative for businesses to set up shop in Thailand.  Big companies that can build headquarters.   That will bring foreigners and also can be a silent salesman for Thailand.   Can't put your eggs in one basket.

Tourism is a low skill industry which is in tandem with the poor education and low skills of much of the population. Competing neighbours are also cheaper and more hungry for business. Thailand has become complacent and undeserving as well as overestimating its attractiveness. There is no vision and it’s position in the PISA EDUCATIONAL TABLES ,amongst other negatives is indicative of a poor outlook for the country.

[CLW]

6 hours ago, Dukeleto said:

From the link to the full article:

"In 2019, tourism contributed nearly 20% of the country’s GDP. "

 

Buuut the government said only 9%! I am also very scepticle of "nearly 20%". I think it is far greater! Zero international tourism has a massive knock on affect. The reaction to this virus, simply put is rediculous and is taking the world back to the dark ages. There are too many people and too little land on this planet already for everyone to go back to a "live off the land sceanario" which is what Thailand seems intent on doing. Somethings got to give and soon!

I agree. Where do you draw the line which business is tourism related and which is not.

There are so many indirectly involved. I also would say it is definitely more than 20 percent.

What else has Thailand to offer? Except Industrial estates around Bangkok and a few in Northeast, nothing much left.

[RocketDog]

9 hours ago, The Farang said:

I give Thailand credit for trying to boost tourism.  I saw a commercial here un USA from Amazing Thailand promoting tourism.   Never saw ads before from Thailand.  But, Thailand needs to change focus from tourism and make it lucrative for businesses to set up shop in Thailand.  Big companies that can build headquarters.   That will bring foreigners and also can be a silent salesman for Thailand.   Can't put your eggs in one basket.

The ads you mention have been running in the Denver area for years. 

[sambum]

"...........from April, which was when the Thai government imposed strict travel restrictions in and out of the country, the number of international flights plummeted to levels unseen in recent history."

 

Case of stating the bleeding obvious I would say! 

[Grumpy John]

I guess we can all agree things took a turn for the worst in 2014.  It's a real shame because with the right governance Thailand could be a smashing success...but from the look of it may just end up smashed!   I stand by what I  said in my previous posts in other threads. "The cold hard reality will be hammered home by December". Anyone still thinking the tourists will be here in great numbers for high season...Delusional.  Anyone who thinks manufacturing will reboot by years end...Delusional.  Anyone who thinks a multitude of big name investors will be coming...delusional.  The EEC looks like a White Elephant.  And the myth the great car industry is the Holy Grail...that could change in a year or less. Look at Toyota,  they built a mini car factory in Indonesia...not here!  

[fraggleRock]

After many years of being in Thailand I finally threw in the towel, I left yesterday using Qatar Airways (superb), Thailand has just changed to much for the worse ... And all the VISA cafuffle... I just decided its time to go, took me 4 days to drop my entire life there—- shipping flights condo etc boom gone...... Thialand has been slipping heavily of recent years —- Im just so happy to be away, many good Thai friends but heavily outnumbered by morons...

[terryofcrete]

9 hours ago, spermwhale said:

Thailand already does this.

Now it is infuriating to see those Amazing Thailand posters when you know you cannot go ! Drives me Ting Tong !

[NightSky]

No one in the ruling classes seems to care about the loss of some businesses in the tourism sector.

 

 

[KhaoYai]

14 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

I left swampy on the 20/02/20 it was devoid of people and you could hear the echo from your footsteps then add the OTT actions of this government and you get your comeuppance no one ????

Strange, it was busy as hell on 1 March when I arrived and on 10 March when I left.

[mas]

The Sydney and Melbourne market was bombarded with tourism commercials about Thailand. Anyone have interest to travel here as a result?

[FritsSikkink]

10 hours ago, smudger1951 said:

Are you serious ? Thailand was doing everything to obstruct tourism and long term stays, even before covid-19. Quite honestly, after this episode would you relocate your HQ to LOS ? 

Before Covid, they had close to 40 million tourist, so you are talking nonsense.

[FritsSikkink]

10 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Tourism is a low skill industry which is in tandem with the poor education and low skills of much of the population. Competing neighbours are also cheaper and more hungry for business. Thailand has become complacent and undeserving as well as overestimating its attractiveness. There is no vision and it’s position in the PISA EDUCATIONAL TABLES ,amongst other negatives is indicative of a poor outlook for the country.

That you know nothing about their vision doesn't mean there isn't one.

[FritsSikkink]

8 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

I guess we can all agree things took a turn for the worst in 2014.  

You forgot that the farmers didn't get paid for their rice?

[Albert Zweistein]

17 hours ago, Dukeleto said:

From the link to the full article:

"In 2019, tourism contributed nearly 20% of the country’s GDP. "

 

Buuut the government said only 9%! I am also very scepticle of "nearly 20%". I think it is far greater! Zero international tourism has a massive knock on affect. The reaction to this virus, simply put is rediculous and is taking the world back to the dark ages. There are too many people and too little land on this planet already for everyone to go back to a "live off the land sceanario" which is what Thailand seems intent on doing. Somethings got to give and soon!

Not knock on, knock out !

[Airbagwill]

11 hours ago, smudger1951 said:

Are you serious ? Thailand was doing everything to obstruct tourism and long term stays, even before covid-19. Quite honestly, after this episode would you relocate your HQ to LOS ? 

...An astoundingly blinkered expat-style misconception.

Thailand has spent the last 40 years attracting industry and tourism to the country..   They have gone from a few thousand to 40 million last year.

BOI has attracted multi-nationals from all over the globe and has one of the biggest automotive industries in the work (top ten). These are in turn run by expats whose expertise keeps them here long-term and fully engaged in the Thai economy.

They have made mistakes and have surrounded some companies in red-tape etc etc, but 20% of the national economy is from tourism and up to 50% is industry which is at least in part run by foreigners. 

Unfortunately retiree expats tend to sit in their houses or condos for years and have no real idea on what is happening to the country around them.....all they do is complain and make racist-biased comments about the limited people they interact with.

 

The problem now is perennially Thai, we have a dictatorial regime that is so undemocratic it has to rebuff rumours of a coup that really doesn't have the expertise to revitalise;ise the economy but instead is trying through draconian measures to keep Covid out of the country at any cost......and what a cost this could turn out to be! Eventually they will have to rebuild and there is no chance things will just go back to how they were....the damage has been done, companies have folded, labour has gone home.

But Thailand will still remain a country where businesses will want to be for demographic and geographic reasons. 

[Airbagwill]

14 hours ago, The Farang said:

if my memory serves me right, a few automotive companies pulled out, General Motors being one of them.

I'm not sure what your implication is.......... the Thai motor industry will continue to grow (Covid permitting)

the GM factory has been sold to GWM (Great Wall Motors) China's biggest SUV and pickup manufacturers.

 

Several companies have come and gone over the years - GM in fact are famous for their inability to operate factories in foreign cultures.

[Albert Zweistein]

16 hours ago, jerolamo said:

what is the names of these automotive company which is in the top ten motor industries ? A Thai company ?

I knew they start electronic industries and build some hard drives, but i didn't know they have automotive motors company... that's great. Which one please ?

The hard disk builder is Western Digital, American. Car builders all foreign because of the high import duties on foreign cars.

[GinBoy2]

Well to get back to the OP and the existential threat to airlines.

 

This is something close to my heart since I work for Delta. Travel, regardless of tourism just isn't going to rebound for at least a year, until mass vaccination is in place.

 

Last week the US industry according to TSA, August was 50% of 2019 levels, and those numbers pretty much align with the numbers from Europe, so we have a long way to go.

Remember airlines work on wafer thin margins, and essentially you don't make money on a load factor <85%.

 

United just announced their Q3 guidance and they are burning $25M/Day in cash, and all the major US airlines are forecasting layoff's in the 10's of thousands in October

 

The other worrying point is the almost total collapse of premium business travel, which accounts for a large part of any airlines profitability. When that returns, and at what level, is anyone's guess.

 

So the idea of packing tourists on economy fare tickets with a 50% load factor is just a recipe for financial disaster.

 

Worrying times my friends!

[Truth Will Set You Free]

 

Why use a photo in 2018. This 2020, what does it look like now? Everyone knows there no flights and the impact this virus has done to all countries. Tell us what’s new....????????????????

[Damual Travesty]

Stories like this cause me real worry.  I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg regarding global economic fallout from this pandemic.  It's far from over and where does a country like Thailand go from here with zero covid? You cannot get better then zero. IF it grows to say 100 - 200 - 500 in the coming months will they again try to shut the country down?

[Grumpy John]

2 hours ago, Damual Travesty said:

Stories like this cause me real worry.  I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg regarding global economic fallout from this pandemic.  It's far from over and where does a country like Thailand go from here with zero covid? You cannot get better then zero. IF it grows to say 100 - 200 - 500 in the coming months will they again try to shut the country down?

My question is who is benefiting from all the disruptions?  Obviously Rothschild's bank, as always,  but who else? 

[Chongalulu]

12 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

That you know nothing about their vision doesn't mean there isn't one.

If you think a sequence of ill thought through off the cuff initiatives, frequently dropped represents their vision - then you’d be correct. Perhaps you’d like to allude to any of them ,say their workable plans or efforts for addressing their appalling educational standing ?. Most forward thinking governments would outline those. Please tell what you understand of any of those initiatives.

[Sharp]

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

My question is who is benefiting from all the disruptions?  Obviously Rothschild's bank, as always,  but who else? 

Soon the big Pharma\Gates foundation and alike with the ridiculas vaccine ???? maker!!!

Stats now projected to be similar or below FLU levels and remember thats WITHOUT a vaccine unlike regular FLU which has!!!

[Airbagwill]

13 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

The hard disk builder is Western Digital, American. Car builders all foreign because of the high import duties on foreign cars.

They are all multi-nationals - basically the same as UK or China and in USA.

Western Digital are here as are Seagate - maybe others too.....

[Airbagwill]

On 9/9/2020 at 5:39 AM, jerolamo said:

what is the names of these automotive company which is in the top ten motor industries ? A Thai company ?

I knew they start electronic industries and build some hard drives, but i didn't know they have automotive motors company... that's great. Which one please ?

_{You sound like a retiree.....You clearly don't understand the automotive industry and how it works - Thailand has the same companies as in Spain, UK, Japan, USA China or any other automotive industry.} 

_{When a "brand" sets up in a country they also set up parts spliers and other satellite industries.}

_{You might of course be talking about TKD companies like Mecedes and BMW who also have assembly plants here.}

_{Where do you think Almost ALL the cars in Thailand come from??}

_{They also are now about 50% export.}

For instance if you buy an Izuzu pick up in the UK it comes from Thailand - this is the model that GM gave up on in Thailand....at one time sharing almost identical production.

 

May I suggest you take a drive to the industrial estates of Chonburi and Rayong and you'll get an inkling of the full size of electronics and automotive industries in Thailand......and that's not including the industries closer to BKK.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Airbagwill

[Lancelot01]

On 9/8/2020 at 10:14 PM, The Farang said:

I give Thailand credit for trying to boost tourism.  I saw a commercial here un USA from Amazing Thailand promoting tourism.   Never saw ads before from Thailand.  But, Thailand needs to change focus from tourism and make it lucrative for businesses to set up shop in Thailand.  Big companies that can build headquarters.   That will bring foreigners and also can be a silent salesman for Thailand.   Can't put your eggs in one basket

And retain 51% ownership of those companies. 

[3NUMBAS]

same all over the world LOS is not a special case ..5 years is the expected time to resurection of global long haul and thats being optimistic

[FritsSikkink]

10 hours ago, nchuckle said:

If you think a sequence of ill thought through off the cuff initiatives, frequently dropped represents their vision - then you’d be correct. Perhaps you’d like to allude to any of them ,say their workable plans or efforts for addressing their appalling educational standing ?. Most forward thinking governments would outline those. Please tell what you understand of any of those initiatives.

Please tell me one forward thinking government you are referring to.

[realfunster]

On 9/9/2020 at 12:08 PM, FritsSikkink said:

Nope, loads of international companies have setup business here for quite a long time.

You can make as many general statements as you like. Thailand is lagging. The attraction of 20-30 years ago, cheap Labour and reasonable infrastructure for the time has been eroded by regional competitors, unless you view Cambodia and Laos as the competition.

Thailand makes it in at number 20 globally for population but is number 80+ for gdp per capita, at around USD 7,500. 30%+ of workers are still manually laboring in the fields and involved in agriculture.
GDP per Capita :

Malaysia USD 11,300 

Singapore USD 64,000

S Korea USD 31,000

Taiwan USD 25,000

World average USD 11,000

 

This is where Thailand might have been..eminently achievable with a clear strategy, economic vision, less corruption and a more open economy.