The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[VegasVic]

>>Lehman Brothers forecast Thai economy has bright future

Hey, what do Lehman Brothers know compared to the doom-and-gloom brigade on TV, some who would call even Rockerfeller a dumb investor?

Surely Lehmans should go down a few cheap beer bars and get their economic advice there instead?

Ah ah ah, you are so naive.

In march 2000, Lehman, Goldman and all the "analysts" were saying about Nasdaq : "go for it, it's going up". Do you remember ? I guess no.

And Enron ? Just before the collapse, it was still "go for it baby". When Enron share had already dropped 99%, only 1 of 14 analysts rated it a sell, and 5 still rated it a buy or a strong-buy (source Thomson Financial/First Call).

So for myself, as a good contrarian, when Lehman Brothers "forecast Thai economy has bright future", well it's obvious, it's really time to go out !

You should know that. Especially if you admire Rockefeller.

This very wise man... decided it was time to liquidate his Wall Street holdings in October 1929 when he was given... a share tip by his shoe-shine boy ... Just before the big crash.

So don't mix apples with bananas please.

Cclub, You beat me to the punch! If Lehman is indeed coming out now with a rosy forcast for Thailand after the military takeover, civil unrest, baht appreciation more than twice the norm for SE asia currencies, and an economy in decline, then it can mean only one thing they are trying one last ditch effort to prop things up so their fund managers and their clients can exit before the inevitable crash. If Palm and some of the others here are so naive as to still actually think that the Thai economy is doing well and the strong baht is a good thing for Thailand then I guess they will just have to watch and learn a hard lesson as things unravel over the coming months.

[bingobongo]

>>Lehman Brothers forecast Thai economy has bright future

Hey, what do Lehman Brothers know compared to the doom-and-gloom brigade on TV, some who would call even Rockerfeller a dumb investor?

Surely Lehmans should go down a few cheap beer bars and get their economic advice there instead?

Ah ah ah, you are so naive.

In march 2000, Lehman, Goldman and all the "analysts" were saying about Nasdaq : "go for it, it's going up". Do you remember ? I guess no.

And Enron ? Just before the collapse, it was still "go for it baby". When Enron share had already dropped 99%, only 1 of 14 analysts rated it a sell, and 5 still rated it a buy or a strong-buy (source Thomson Financial/First Call).

So for myself, as a good contrarian, when Lehman Brothers "forecast Thai economy has bright future", well it's obvious, it's really time to go out !

You should know that. Especially if you admire Rockefeller.

This very wise man... decided it was time to liquidate his Wall Street holdings in October 1929 when he was given... a share tip by his shoe-shine boy ... Just before the big crash.

So don't mix apples with bananas please.

Cclub, You beat me to the punch! If Lehman is indeed coming out now with a rosy forcast for Thailand after the military takeover, civil unrest, baht appreciation more than twice the norm for SE asia currencies, and an economy in decline, then it can mean only one thing they are trying one last ditch effort to prop things up so their fund managers and their clients can exit before the inevitable crash. If Palm and some of the others here are so naive as to still actually think that the Thai economy is doing well and the strong baht is a good thing for Thailand then I guess they will just have to watch and learn a hard lesson as things unravel over the coming months.

what Palm fails to realize is that Lehman does not care about the small fry investor. they only want the commission on any and all sales of their Thai related products (mutual funds, currency swaps, research etc). Lehman will bid Thailand up and walk away with the dough while the little guy loses his last satang.

Thailand is a casino to the farang, and as we all know the house always wins.

Edited May 15, 2007 by bingobongo

[cclub75]

Our daily harvest : Brokerage houses take big hit.

December and the BOT circus seem to have killed SET (and the thai investors for sure). But not only. There is something strange about march and april.... Sign of an aggravation of the crisis, on 2 fronts economy and politics ?

You'll note than in january 2006 we had one very big operation (Shin Deal). So it had an influence on Q1 2006.

However, on this file :

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/fi...s_highlight.XLS

We can see that march and april 2007 have been really bad, especially with the volume (daily volume average). This is why the result of brokerage companies are bad. Okay Songkhran effect. But march ?

Daily volume Average

Millions shares

Year 2005 = 3077

Year 2006 = 2610

Oct 2006 = 2513

Nov 2006 = 3826

Dec 2006 = 2813

Jan 2007 = 2391

Feb 2007 = 2269

Mar 2007 = 1585

Apr 2007 = 1589

I remind you that, as usual, everything is fine. We will have elections in december, the junta will give back the power to a nice and good civilian gvt, the confidence shall return, and the Kingdom will go back to its "normal" state, like the Sleeping beauty and her Castle...

Last point : maybe Lehman Brothers is not right...

Brokerage houses take big hit

First-quarter net profit slumps 76% following sharp fall in stock trading that hits fee income

Listed brokerage houses' cumulative first-quarter net profit dived 76.21 per cent year on year, from Bt1.03 billion to about Bt245 million, on sharp declines in stock trading.

The results did not take into account Capital Nomura Securities' earnings, as its fiscal year differs from that of other brokers.

Average daily trading in securities for the first three months declined 42.83 per cent, from Bt20.99 billion to Bt12 billion.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/16...ss_30034299.php

Edited May 15, 2007 by cclub75

[bingobongo]

Our daily harvest : Brokerage houses take big hit.

December and the BOT circus seem to have killed SET (and the thai investors for sure). But not only. There is something strange about march and april.... Sign of an aggravation of the crisis, on 2 fronts economy and politics ?

You'll note than in january 2006 we had one very big operation (Shin Deal). So it had an influence on Q1 2006.

However, on this file :

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/fi...s_highlight.XLS

We can see that march and april 2007 have been really bad, especially with the volume (daily volume average). This is why the result of brokerage companies are bad. Okay Songkhran effect. But march ?

Daily volume Average

Millions shares

Year 2005 = 3077

Year 2006 = 2610

Oct 2006 = 2513

Nov 2006 = 3826

Dec 2006 = 2813

Jan 2007 = 2391

Feb 2007 = 2269

Mar 2007 = 1585

Apr 2007 = 1589

I remind you that, as usual, everything is fine. We will have elections in december, the junta will give back the power to a nice and good civilian gvt, the confidence shall return, and the Kingdom will go back to its "normal" state, like the Sleeping beauty and her Castle...

Last point : maybe Lehman Brothers is not right...

Brokerage houses take big hit

First-quarter net profit slumps 76% following sharp fall in stock trading that hits fee income

Listed brokerage houses' cumulative first-quarter net profit dived 76.21 per cent year on year, from Bt1.03 billion to about Bt245 million, on sharp declines in stock trading.

The results did not take into account Capital Nomura Securities' earnings, as its fiscal year differs from that of other brokers.

Average daily trading in securities for the first three months declined 42.83 per cent, from Bt20.99 billion to Bt12 billion.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/16...ss_30034299.php

cclub75, this may explain why Lehman is pumping the Thai stock market, if Lehman has a subsidiary or actual brokerage house in Thailand, they must be getting clobbered on lower trading and research fees. Again palm, Lehman does not care about the small fry investor.

[bingobongo]

people are not able to pay in LOS......more repossessions...revenues would have been higher except for the drag from Thailand......

Retail Holdings N.V. Announces 2006 Results

The Company's 2006 consolidated results are impacted significantly by

the results for Thailand where poor collection performance on motorcycle

installment accounts, among other factors, resulted in a significantly

higher level of product reverts (which are accounted for as negative sales)

and higher bad debt and inventory provisions (the latter, also being

impacted by declining used motorcycle prices).

The decline in consolidated revenue is due to the $73.3 million drop in

Thailand's revenue.

The increase in gross profit percentage is primarily due

to the significant decline in Thailand's motorcycles sales which have a

lower gross profit contribution.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=ind_focus.story&STORY=/www/story/05-15-2007/0004588645&EDATE=TUE+May+15+2007,+09:00+AM

Edited May 15, 2007 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

hmmm......less tourists? overpriced goods? baht too strong?

AOT Q1 profit falls 90%

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30034374

[Prakanong]

hmmm......less tourists? overpriced goods? baht too strong?

AOT Q1 profit falls 90%

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30034374

And we have Thai Airways profits down by 31% while Singapore Airlines is up 72% - can not be lower demand in the region then at fault

TG saying the stronger THB is hitting it is a bit far fetched too

Straits Times today has 1st Quarter profits up a 6.3 Billion SGD - STI up 16.4% this year alone - some in the region are doing well - well most really except basket cases and Thailand

They are cheeky though as they do list Thai Bev in the Sing figures at a 13.2 growth up from same Q last year - must be all those property agents and condo speculators drowning their sorrows :-)))))

[bingobongo]

hello englishoak.........don't hate the player, hate the game.....well apparantly the boys in green are not happy with the economic mess so far, so they insist on meddling in monetary policy and further putting the economy into a tailspin.....i think they will succeed in continuing the trend

BOT must be free from meddling

The decision to keep the Bank of Thailand under political control puts the country's long-term economic stability at risk

Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn's surprise move to take back the power to hire and fire the Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor has turned back the clock on Thailand's fiscal and monetary management system. Such a move will once again make it possible for politicians to assert undue influence in ways that might lead to economic instability.

The BOT was made a scapegoat in the 1997 financial crisis for its failure to defend the value of the baht against speculators. That was despite the fact that political interference was also identified as a major cause contributing to the central bank's policy mismanagement, which led to very dire consequences.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/17...on_30034418.php

Edited May 17, 2007 by bingobongo

[Mid]

I Fell Into A Burning Ring Of Fire

I Went Down, Down, Down

And The Flames Went Higher

And It Burns, Burns, Burns

The Ring Of Fire

The Ring Of Fire

Johnny Cash

[bingobongo]

well folks, the thai credit bubble is deflating, now people are learning to live within their means, which is a good thing, what do all the items below have in common? they are usually bought with loans/credit

lower car sales - check

lower motorcycle sales - check

lower property sales - check

lower furniture/electronics sales - check

and now.....

Credit card business slows down in 1st quarter: KRC

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29435

Edited May 17, 2007 by bingobongo

[cclub75]

well folks, the thai credit bubble is deflating, now people are learning to live within their means, which is a good thing, what do all the items below have in common? they are usually bought with loans/credit

Credit card business slows down in 1st quarter: KRC

I'm wondering what is the scariest part :

-the decrease in total spending

or....

-the fact that they continue to give away credit cards like candies ! .... ("KRC said the number of credit cards in the first quarter of this year totaled 11,087,434, up 9.17 per cent from the same quarter last year.")

[bingobongo]

what stood out here was the phrase......... "Gross inflows in Asia reached nearly 8 pct of gross domestic product last year, higher than the peaks of the mid-1990s"

IMF says capital surge in Asia triggers concern

He cited as an example Thailand's capital controls imposed late last year which were seen as as counter productive.

"What was thought to be surging capital inflows in the last quarter in Thailand was actually a surge in the current account surplus," he said.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...80-9d5a4a2c638a

[bingobongo]

something wicked this way comes.....

exports down - check

consumption down - check

manufacturing down - check

employment down - check

Chamber urges interest rate cut to spur consumption

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29440

[cclub75]

A good harvest today.

-First, as reported by Bingobongo in an another thread, some very interesting (and bleak) news about... real estate.

Like in the US, the situation is worsening. ("The value of the property market slumped by up to 20 per cent or Bt10 billion in the first four months of the year").

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/18...ss_30034474.php

But of course, and as usual, everything is fine and the Market Is Healthy (MIH, trademark). I repeat, the Market Is Healthy.

-And now something completly different... Tarisa is back. Yes, Miss (Doctor) Tarisa, governor of the BOT, was very silent these last weeks... She was probably hidding.

But like an oracle, she spoke today. And she said something striking : "In the future, the baht is likely to be weakened by our foreign-exchange spending, such as for buying aircraft". 2 aircrafts will be imported this quarter. Another will be imported in the third quarter.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/18...ss_30034479.php

I don't say that THB will not decrease in the near future (it's possible, especially under the light of the deep political crisis we have).

However, the explanation given by Tarisa, like usual, is coming short.

A Boeing or Airbus have a catalog price of 50 to 150 millions USD.

In march, the current account surplus of Thailand hit US$2.26 billion dollars (and counting, it has increased again for sure in april).

We can doubt that it will have a huge effect on the value of THB...

Later on, Tarisa counts on the famous "megaprojects".... Thoses are like the Loch Ness Monster... Everybody is talking about it, but nobody saw it.

And again, not a word on the problem of the USD (that is the core of the problem, of all the problems)...

To sum' up, Tarisa seem to have only one neurone. For each problem, she can think about only one explanation, one after the other.

Last year, successively , she told us that the THB increased because :

-bad foreign speculators

-then thai banks

-then thai exporters (who where trying to protect themselves, and therefore were dumping quickly their USD)

-then now it's because of the current account surplus, but everything is going to be okay "because we are going to buy... airplanes".

Probably after, she will speak about some ghost, or the lunar calendar, or the weather.

Tarisa should land quickly.

Edited May 17, 2007 by cclub75

[ThaiGoon]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/18May2007_biz42.php

INVESTMENT INCENTIVES

Ventures worth B130bn on track, says BoI

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

Thirty-seven manufacturers have confirmed that they will not delay investment plans worth 130 billion baht, which have received promotional privileges from the Board of Investment (BoI). Deputy Prime Minister Kosit Panpiemras met with executives of 37 BoI-approved companies yesterday. They cover various industrial sectors and include Thai Bridgestone, Yokohama Tire, Bangkok Glass, Ecco (Thailand) Co, Colgate Palmolive, Tipco, Lam Soon Group, Western Digital, Hitachi Global Storage, Fujitsu, Minebea, Nidec Electronics, Celestica (Thailand), Integrated Systems (Thailand), Sharp Appliance, Glow Energy, Regional Container Lines, Asian Honda, and G Steel Plc.

Mr Kosit, also the industry minister, said most of the companies confirmed they would proceed with their investments this year. Machinery imports would start late this year or early next year.

.........................

And the "Lock Ness Monster":

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/10...ss_30033808.php

MASS TRANSIT

Ministry upbeat on JBIC loan

Japan's fact-finding mission raises hopes

After months of delay, the Finance Ministry now believes it can secure an Bt84-billion mass-transit loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in August after Tokyo decided to send a fact-finding mission to Bangkok at the end of this month.

The visit of the first government mission from Japan marks a significant step in pushing the project forward, because the group will appraise and assess the projects before seeking further approval from the Japanese government.

The first route for Cabinet consideration on May 22 will be the Red Line, between Bang Sue and Taling Chan, which should be ready for bidding next month.

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is working on the final design for Rangsit to Bang Sue before proposing the budget for Cabinet approval.

The SRT will propose the Bang Yai to Bang Sue project to the Cabinet for approval around mid-July, and bidding should open in late August, Sansern added.

Sommai said the government planned to borrow 300 billion yen (Bt86.75 billion) from the JBIC, which should cover 75 per cent of the total Bt120 billion budgeted for public work.

The government plans to spend Bt160 billion on the three lines: Purple, Red and Blue.

[Prakanong]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/18May2007_biz42.php

INVESTMENT INCENTIVES

Ventures worth B130bn on track, says BoI

YUTHANA PRAIWAN

Thirty-seven manufacturers have confirmed that they will not delay investment plans worth 130 billion baht, which have received promotional privileges from the Board of Investment (BoI). Deputy Prime Minister Kosit Panpiemras met with executives of 37 BoI-approved companies yesterday. They cover various industrial sectors and include Thai Bridgestone, Yokohama Tire, Bangkok Glass, Ecco (Thailand) Co, Colgate Palmolive, Tipco, Lam Soon Group, Western Digital, Hitachi Global Storage, Fujitsu, Minebea, Nidec Electronics, Celestica (Thailand), Integrated Systems (Thailand), Sharp Appliance, Glow Energy, Regional Container Lines, Asian Honda, and G Steel Plc.

Mr Kosit, also the industry minister, said most of the companies confirmed they would proceed with their investments this year. Machinery imports would start late this year or early next year.

.........................

And the "Lock Ness Monster":

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/10...ss_30033808.php

MASS TRANSIT

Ministry upbeat on JBIC loan

Japan's fact-finding mission raises hopes

After months of delay, the Finance Ministry now believes it can secure an Bt84-billion mass-transit loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in August after Tokyo decided to send a fact-finding mission to Bangkok at the end of this month.

The visit of the first government mission from Japan marks a significant step in pushing the project forward, because the group will appraise and assess the projects before seeking further approval from the Japanese government.

The first route for Cabinet consideration on May 22 will be the Red Line, between Bang Sue and Taling Chan, which should be ready for bidding next month.

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is working on the final design for Rangsit to Bang Sue before proposing the budget for Cabinet approval.

The SRT will propose the Bang Yai to Bang Sue project to the Cabinet for approval around mid-July, and bidding should open in late August, Sansern added.

Sommai said the government planned to borrow 300 billion yen (Bt86.75 billion) from the JBIC, which should cover 75 per cent of the total Bt120 billion budgeted for public work.

The government plans to spend Bt160 billion on the three lines: Purple, Red and Blue.

Like a drowning man clutching the the proverbial straw he arrives from the queue at Swensons

In terms of FDI 130 billion monopoly money units is peanuts and the *hope* of a loan to build a capital infrastructure project is not a lot to base your argument on.

Do not worry though - a couple of low level assembly line facilities are coming in from Japan - they will be looking at Thai electonics PHd's to start as foreman and if you are a good chap might make shift leader by the time you are 25

Starting salary for you will be a generous 30k THB rising to 40k THB with good behaviour

[jumnien]

If the Thai economy starts to develop any serious problems the baht will start to devalue. Watch the rates, don't read the headlines!

[Prakanong]

If the Thai economy starts to develop any serious problems the baht will start to devalue. Watch the rates, don't read the headlines!

Of course its hyperbole to suggest the Thai economy is in crisis - its just not doing very well at the moment in a number of sectors.

It needs to get back on track and secure its share of the investment that is going on in the region. It is losing out at the moment and its not enjoying the boom many other countries are.

There are many othr resons for a strong THB though and its not all dowen to economic indicators which are not exactly rosey currently with consumer confidence down, property groups shouting for help etc.

[palm]

If the Thai economy starts to develop any serious problems the baht will start to devalue. Watch the rates, don't read the headlines!

Of course its hyperbole to suggest the Thai economy is in crisis - its just not doing very well at the moment in a number of sectors.

Correct

It's funny reading some of the posts here from the extreme negative views here and people saying 'I don't realise this and I don't realise that.' Your personal circumstances here must truly be in dire straights.

My GF's business here is booming and so are those of her friends; the Thai baht's strength is having a negative effect, but its not serious. She can't find enough good quality staff, as everyone of quality in the garment business is working.

I suppose we each use our own personal circumstances as a influencing reference to Thailand - but from where I am, I've never been wealthier or happier being here. If the baht falls thats GREAT for me, as most of my assets and cash is offshore; but that doesn't stop me investing right now close to a million baht a month in Thailand on various personal and business projects which directly employ dozens of Thais here.

I went to a high quality condo project yesterday in lower Suk, and 3 more units were sold to well-groomed, smart professional-looking people; not bankrupt beggars eating out of cans. You know, real contracts; not some wishy-washy real estate lady saying so.

Do most of you negative guys keep your cash under the mattress? Are your personal financial circumstances so dire to make you consider leaving?

The Thai economy isn't booming, but its not in a crisis either. I am really looking forward to 2008 in Thailand!

Edited May 18, 2007 by palm

[jumnien]

My beloved grandmother used to say that the depression in the US in 1929 was the happiest time of her life. Neighbors traded produce and a feeling of community pervaded daily life. Perspective is everything!

[ThaiGoon]

If the Thai economy starts to develop any serious problems the baht will start to devalue. Watch the rates, don't read the headlines!

Of course its hyperbole to suggest the Thai economy is in crisis - its just not doing very well at the moment in a number of sectors.

Correct

It's funny reading some of the posts here from the extreme negative views here and people saying 'I don't realise this and I don't realise that.' Your personal circumstances here must truly be in dire straights.

My GF's business here is booming and so are those of her friends; the Thai baht's strength is having a negative effect, but its not serious. She can't find enough good quality staff, as everyone of quality in the garment business is working.

I suppose we each use our own personal circumstances as a influencing reference to Thailand - but from where I am, I've never been wealthier or happier being here. If the baht falls thats GREAT for me, as most of my assets and cash is offshore; but that doesn't stop me investing right now close to a million baht a month in Thailand on various personal and business projects which directly employ dozens of Thais here.

I went to a high quality condo project yesterday in lower Suk, and 3 more units were sold to well-groomed, smart professional-looking people; not bankrupt beggars eating out of cans. You know, real contracts; not some wishy-washy real estate lady saying so.

Do most of you negative guys keep your cash under the mattress? Are your personal financial circumstances so dire to make you consider leaving?

The Thai economy isn't booming, but its not in a crisis either. I am really looking forward to 2008 in Thailand!

:D

[Prakanong]

My beloved grandmother used to say that the depression in the US in 1929 was the happiest time of her life. Neighbors traded produce and a feeling of community pervaded daily life. Perspective is everything!

It was a bit like that during the Miners Strike of 84/85 in the UK. Soup kitchen's, people helping each other out, those in work buying pints in the pubs etc etc.

Think of the movie Billy Elliot - I know that town very well ;-))

Still though you tend to remember the good bits - its only human nature.

I have some great memeories of that time and we talked about it a lot last year when I met sme of my ex-miner pals in Thailand by accident.

Still life is much better now though ;-)))))

[jumnien]

Many people are betting everything that happiness results from a vibrant stock market or a strong/weak currency or a bull/bear real estate market and forget to just live every day fully and appreciate every moment and above all SMILE!

[Jai Dee]

GHB urges Govt to issue measures aimed to stimulate economy quickly

The Government Housing Bank (GHB) President, Mr. Khan Prachuabmoh (ขรรค์ ประจวบเหมาะ), has asked the Ministry of Finance to issue measures aimed to stimulate economy before property business faces a slump.

GHB President today discloses he will have a discussion with Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn (ฉลองภพ สุสังกร์กาญจน์) on measures to boost the country’s economy today (May 18th). He says agencies want to consider the government’s measures, especially for real estate business, before they decide to take any action.

Mr. Khan views there are currently two measures that may stimulate the economy. The two measures are the discount for income tax for those who have to pay installments of property and the tax exemption for those with income less than 20,000 baht.

As for measures to boost property business, Mr. Khan says it is up to Finance Minister’s consideration. However, Finance Minister reportedly disagrees with the reduction of fees in transferring of housing ownership as he fears it might affect the collection of local revenues.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[palm]

Many people are betting everything that happiness results from a vibrant stock market or a strong/weak currency or a bull/bear real estate market and forget to just live every day fully and appreciate every moment and above all SMILE!

Yes you are absolutely right.

I am really enjoying Thailand right now - Bangkok especially for its great restaurants, cinemas, bars, shopping, warm weather, and of course friendly people.

And up-country, everyone I have met is really nice and friendly. It feels great investing my time, money and energy in this country and I see absolutely no reason to stop.

[jumnien]

It's always good to remember that very, very few of us ever run out of money; we all, however, run out of TIME! Though I'm not Christian, one of my favorite pieces of art is in the Vatican, is it St. Marks Cathedral? Out of a crevace in the rock a giant skeleton shakes a huge hourglass at all who pass by! Carpe diem! To me, one of the most powerfully spiritual places on earth.

[Prakanong]

"I suppose we each use our own personal circumstances as a influencing reference to Thailand - but from where I am, I've never been wealthier or happier being here."

Some may well do and some may well look at objective measures like economic indicators.

Overall these do not seem to be looking good and when comparedwith other countries in the region who are booming its not good reasoning

GDP growth hovering around 4.2 and 4.4% is just not cutting the mustard though given the regions growth and what growth Thailand needs just to stand still. It needs higher growth than that to sustain employment and with that level all the graduates this year will find it hard to get jobs never mind decent ones.

So yes we should avoid the hyperble that the thai economy is in meltdown or crisis. Yes some sectos are doing more than OK while others are pitiful and even within sectors there may be differentials ie you bleeive the high en property market is booming but obviously some of the property sector has problems.

So yes - ones personal circumstances should not be used to measure Thailands economy ie my biz is good so its great or my biz is bad so it <deleted> - there are objective economic indicators out there which are accepted in order to come to an informed objective viewpoint.

I do not think anyone would disagree with Thailand - could and needs to do better as its not firing on many cylinders at the moment.

The question is will it put in place the policies, institutions and structures to enable it to grow and develop as it should?

[palm]

So yes we should avoid the hyperble that the thai economy is in meltdown or crisis. Yes some sectos are doing more than OK while others are pitiful and even within sectors there may be differentials ie you believe the high en property market is booming but obviously some of the property sector has problems.

The question is will it put in place the policies, institutions and structures to enable it to grow and develop as it should?

um, I've never said I thought the high end property market is booming; I just don't believe its has any serious problems.

I would think that everyone with a positive attitude is hoping this current uncertainty is sorted out, and the elections happen in December. If they do, then I think 2008 will really be a good year for Thais and the Thai economy.

It be very interesting to see things 12 months from now

[Mid]

The Thai economy isn't booming, but its not in a crisis either. I am really looking forward to 2008 in Thailand!

gotta agree , cause '07 is <deleted> .....................................

[VegasVic]

Many people are betting everything that happiness results from a vibrant stock market or a strong/weak currency or a bull/bear real estate market and forget to just live every day fully and appreciate every moment and above all SMILE!

mdeland, I couldn't agree more, every day that anyone wakes up and is alive and healthy they should appreciate the fact that life is good! Where I think you might be missing the point (I certainly can't speak for all the posters here that either reprint negative articles about the Thai economy, or have opposing views to those that think everything is rosy in the LOS) is that some of these posters that you seem to think only get their happiness out of a bull market or currency fluctuations, are in fact only trying to represent the true state of affairs in Thailand as they live it or as they hear about it in the local or regional media. If the only readers of THAI VISA forum were those living in the LOS then there would not be much need to rebut the "lollipops and rainbows" brigade, because everyone would know firsthand their reality of the current situation in Thailand. This forum however is read by many who have never been to Thailand or who have been before and are thinking about retiring here or making an investment (usually real estate) in the kingdom from overseas. Most of these people are lurkers, they never sign up or if they sign up they rarely if ever post, they are there to try and get factual information on possible relocation or investment, so when some poster tells how he just flipped a BK condo in less than a year and made 500,000baht or another poster says how great the business that he and his wife have and how they are so busy they just can't keep up with demand, then the reader overseas would bring away from thise posts that Thailand must indeed be in a boom cycle and that is why the baht is so strong. I don't doubt some of the stories about people out there doing well with condos in BKK or Phuket, or about their business doing well in fact I am really happy for them, but the fact remains that Thailand is in a state of economic downturn and the strong baht has more to do with investor speculation than it does with anything that is happening internally. So those of us who might appear to you to be posting negative things about the economy are (for the most part I believe) in reality just trying to give the reader overseas a more accurate perspective of what is going on with the Thai economy. It pains me to hear stories of foriegn investors getting caught up in the speculative condo frenzy in Miami Florida, ( granted they should have done more due dilligence) and if there were a forum that those people could have gone to in the states like THAI VISA is for Thailand, I would have gladly warned them of the ridiculous valuations in that particular market in the US just as I try to let the foriegn reraders here know what is really going on with the bahts rapid rise in value and my personal experience and now the medias coverage of what is actually going on with the Thai economy.