Thailand's real crisis is the economy

[mommysboy]

When it opens up, Thailand will also have to suffer the real first wave of the disease which it avoided- that could claim 20-50k lives.  So, that will inevitably lead to another lockdown.  It's in a dreadful position, and the only option is to carry on as at present, in the hope that a vaccine or better treatment comes along (1-5 years).

[DaveCW]

5 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

shambolic way the UK govt has dealt with CV19 (& Brexit).... 

 

 

  

As far as Brexit goes - Yes I agree, the May Government was worse than shambolic - But, the Johnstone Government in this respect has faired far better. No giving in to the unrealistic demands of the EU.

[johnray]

Tourism in England has been hit as well.  Rumor has it a lonesome tourist walked along a barren seafront and threw a tissue in a bin.  The gale force wind blew it away.  Later that day a cleaner walked down past the bin to pick up the tissue and hurt their back.  Now it cost the country money because the cleaner had a few days off.  We need help, bring back the tourists, bring back the druggies and smell of urine!

Edited September 10, 2020 by johnray

[Fex Bluse]

7 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I didn't know the Thai massage sector was that important.

Sorry, I meant 'tourism'... 

[billd766]

15 hours ago, ezzra said:

Rubbish... Thailand has fared the pandemic very well in contrast to countries like Australia and UK, other than tourism and hospitality business that took the brunt of the covid lack of tourists, all other business are open as usual, when a country wants to blow tens of billions on frivolous toys like submarines, this country is doing well economically and will recover back to where they used to be...

Please explain how well Thailand is doing economically. International tourism is virtually zero and the government has made it so by making it so restricted what tourists may do, where they can stay and enforcing restriction on ASQ etc.

 

Exports are dropping drastically and so is local consumption.

 

Anywhere between 8 and 20 million people in both formal and informal jobs have no work and no sign of it on the horizon for at least this year.

 

The government is giving money that it has borrowed and reduced taxation so even less money is coming into the state trough coffers.

 

Household debt is rising at this point as people have lost their jobs and their income.

 

Domestic tourism only seems to work at the weekends and holidays, meanwhile the weekdays there are few tourists. Whilst many people are in work even they cannot keep taking time off or their jobs will disappear too.

 

Yet you seem to believe that Thailand is doing well. IMHO this is just the calm before the storm and if it drags on into the new year then Thailand is in for a whole heap of pain next year.

[CANSIAM]

Yes if this continues, you will see the millions of the newly poor who are bound by tourism in some way big or small join with the student's political protests, then the PM will break more of a sweat ! 

[Acrylic]

21 hours ago, Thomas J said:

This reminds me of a story where a man is in the hospital in critical condition with a head injury.  The doctor mistakes him for another patient and amputates both legs.  The patient survives and the news media hails the doctor as 'SAVING THE PATIENTS LIFE"  

Thailand is hot, humid and a young population.  Every country with those characteristics has a low incidence of covid infection and death. 

 

Unfortunately Indonesia and Philippines disagree with you. 

[Acrylic]

23 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

You can almost enjoy the irony.  The economy has swooned and will continue to do so.  Yet the mighty Baht keeps charging upward.  Someone must think Thailand remains a great investment...

Yay for the mighty baht. Hope it keeps rising. 

[pixelaoffy]

So  where's the 1.5 trillion baht to boost economy announced over a month ago ? Thailand has no leadership and if there was a population that was angry ( not just school kids ) there would be mass protests .. but hey its mai pen rai the usual Thai attitude 

[pixelaoffy]

16 hours ago, Brunolem said:

...thanks to porridge, since it is about all that the Brits can eat after their knives were confiscated for fear of terrorist attacks...

 

I don't know what you are drinking, or smoking over there, but it must be extremely potent...

 

Anyway, rest assured that people are not starving in Thailand, despite the few photos taken in selected areas of places like Pattaya...and the country's finances are kept under control without resorting to massive money printing and negative interest rates as in the West..

You know nothing of what's happening to Thailand's economy

[hotandsticky]

6 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

You know nothing of what's happening to Thailand's economy

 

 

He seems to know more than you................ my observations, from rural Thailand, match those of @Brunolem. 

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

You know nothing of what's happening to Thailand's economy

You are welcome to share your knowledge, instead of making unsupported bold statements...

[ExpatOilWorker]

22 hours ago, rumak said:

 

I am sure you could easily put together a choir to sing along .....

This guy is probably available. 

 

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

This guy is probably available. 

 

Can't see his work permit!

 

This outlaw is good for jail and deportation!

 

[rumak]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

This guy is probably available. 

 

i wondered what happened to bob dylan .     probably had a full head of hair before this covid thing

"my coconuts are for sale

they might put me in jail

no one to pay my bail

clear weather but nowhere to sail

please send money, use the mail 

send :  to desolation row.... "

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by rumak

[Banana7]

Government forecast for 2020 is 8% decline in GDP from 2019. Unfortunately, most of the 8% is focused on one sector, tourism. Areas highly dependent on foreign tourists like Phuket, Pattaya, inner city Chiang Mai are basically the big areas that are suffering deeply. Bangkok is as busy as ever, even though it is popular with foreign tourists. If you are in a tourist area, it looks very bad, but elsewhere its mostly business as usual. Thai baht remains very strong against foreign currencies.

 

Pattaya in 2019 wasn't doing very well even before COVID-19. Many businesses had been shut down. The issue was baht strength against western currencies. There is a thread in the pattaya forum that discusses all the bars and restaurants that had be closed in 2019 and now 2020. See

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Banana7

[Redvic]

On 9/9/2020 at 11:46 PM, Mike Teavee said:

Despite being one of the worst hit by the demise of tourism, I don't think Thailand is in as bad a position as the UK (In fact, if I still lived in the UK I'd probably swap governments with them!) which means I can only see this resulting in a stronger baht (which adds to Thailand's own problems)  

 

You can't be serious??? Get mammy to give you your meds. 

[spidermike007]

The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. And the same can be said about the income brought in by expats. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics.

 

In terms of international tourism, thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, are getting crushed.

 

This hapless administration needs to develop some courage and initiative. They can't hide from the world forever. Extreme timidity from supposedly tough men is an amusing thing to witness. However, it could be their undoing. The pain they are inflicting on millions is not amusing, and their lack of initiative amounts to sadism. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by spidermike007

[Brunolem]

39 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

This hapless administration needs to develop some courage and initiative. They can't hide from the world forever. 

This administration can't do anything.

 

Either they open the borders to tourism, meaning no quarantine, or they don't.

 

Which country is actually doing that?

 

None that I know of.

 

Worldwide tourism is at a standstill, not only in Thailand.

 

If they open the borders without quarantine, which they impose on their own citizens coming back from abroad, and which has caught many imported cases, the population will be furious, the number of cases will surge and the whole country and its residents will have to deal with a so-called second wave.

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

This administration can't do anything.

 

Either they open the borders to tourism, meaning no quarantine, or they don't.

 

Which country is actually doing that?

 

None that I know of.

 

Worldwide tourism is at a standstill, not only in Thailand.

 

If they open the borders without quarantine, which they impose on their own citizens coming back from abroad, and which has caught many imported cases, the population will be furious, the number of cases will surge and the whole country and its residents will have to deal with a so-called second wave.

 

 

 

They can do alot. They can open the borders to any and all comers, who are willing to endure quarantine. Certify 1,000, not 42 hotels as facilities. Zero risk. Something is better than nothing. By doing nothing, they will be held responsible for sabotaging the economy. Doing nothing is sadism. 

[mommysboy]

4 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Government forecast for 2020 is 8% decline in GDP from 2019. Unfortunately, most of the 8% is focused on one sector, tourism. Areas highly dependent on foreign tourists like Phuket, Pattaya, inner city Chiang Mai are basically the big areas that are suffering deeply. Bangkok is as busy as ever, even though it is popular with foreign tourists. If you are in a tourist area, it looks very bad, but elsewhere its mostly business as usual. Thai baht remains very strong against foreign currencies.

 

Pattaya in 2019 wasn't doing very well even before COVID-19. Many businesses had been shut down. The issue was baht strength against western currencies. There is a thread in the pattaya forum that discusses all the bars and restaurants that had be closed in 2019 and now 2020. See

 

 

No, there is a slowdown that extends far further than merely tourism, but that alone will deal a mighty blow to the economy.

[Leaver]

14 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

No, there is a slowdown that extends far further than merely tourism, but that alone will deal a mighty blow to the economy.

Thailand was losing its manufacturing industry before Covid as well.  

[elliss]

On 9/10/2020 at 5:46 AM, Mike Teavee said:

Despite being one of the worst hit by the demise of tourism, I don't think Thailand is in as bad a position as the UK (In fact, if I still lived in the UK I'd probably swap governments with them!) which means I can only see this resulting in a stronger baht (which adds to Thailand's own problems)  

 

 

   Well , one thing is for sure . 

    Covid-19  panic , brought above the return of many Brits, to the Nanny state.

    Nhs , cradle to grave , perfect paradise ..

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by elliss
spelling

[whiteman]

Thailand was losing its manufacturing industry before Covid as well.

 

Also it is now 3rd in the world for selling rice just to name a few 

[Leaver]

6 minutes ago, whiteman said:

Thailand was losing its manufacturing industry before Covid as well.

 

Also it is now 3rd in the world for selling rice just to name a few 

Yes.  Thailand has always had a strong agriculture sector, but it is also fading.

 

Army should stick to defending a country, rather than running a country.  

 

Thailand will only continue to fall behind, with the governance it has.   

[steven100]

On 9/10/2020 at 4:16 AM, webfact said:

Thailand's real crisis is the economy

hope all the businesses die. 

[Lacessit]

On 9/10/2020 at 5:26 AM, rumak said:

"Finally, it is critical to understand why businesses are not adapting faster, and not accessing the soft loans."        

 

Adapting ?   Sure wish the author would give us some idea of what he is thinking .

 

Isn't this like the zookeeper walking by the homosapien cage and saying  " So,  no food for a week.  Our primate here is losing a lot of weight .  Gee, i can't understand why it doesn't adapt ".    

You're not channeling Oliver Twist, are you?

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

They can do alot. They can open the borders to any and all comers, who are willing to endure quarantine. Certify 1,000, not 42 hotels as facilities. Zero risk. Something is better than nothing. By doing nothing, they will be held responsible for sabotaging the economy. Doing nothing is sadism. 

Opening the borders wouldn't translate automatically by an invasion of tourists. 

 

Many countries, starting with China, the number one provider of tourists, are not letting their citizens travel abroad for tourism. 

 

Many others, like the UK, impose a quarantine to their citizens coming back from abroad... who is going to go through 2 x 14 days of quarantine just to go on holidays? 

 

If Thailand was opening its borders tomorrow, it would see a trickle of real tourists, and an invasion from neighbouring countries, as well as from people looking to escape the hell in their own countries (India...). 

[ratcatcher]

12 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

This guy is probably available. 

 

"I've got a lovely bunch of coconuts,

There they are all sitting in my truck"

[rumak]

57 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

You're not channeling Oliver Twist, are you?

I am not very well read ......   the advantage of that is that I rarely plagiarize   55

 

but google is a real tool ( not the type of tool we sometimes find here)

quote: 

Oliver Twist became a vehicle for social criticism aimed directly at the problem of poverty in 19th-century London.

 

ahhh,  so a social critic i might be .   but forums are full of them    chai mai ?

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by rumak