What China’s struggles with a Thai railway say about the Belt and Road

[josephbloggs]

16 minutes ago, Selatan said:

We have to wait and see what the agreement would look like.

Financing issues were partly the cause of the delays. Thailand wanted to finance the whole project on its own because of "debt trap" fears but probably didn't have the money. Thailand also wanted to get involved a lot in the construction but didn't have the expertise and the productivity level.

Yes indeed.  I thought it hadn't been agreed (as they rejected the terms due to high interest) but wasn't sure if I had missed any developments.

Weird though as 95% of people on here say it is a done deal ands China is coming to take all of Thailand's assets and enslave its people.

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Susco said:

So electrified fences prevent washing out of tracks cause by flooding?

 

NEXT

Nobody is immune to damage from heavy rain, happened in Scotland a couple of weeks ago.

People should keep things in perspective. The Chinese have 36,000 km of high speed rail, not without some experience.

[Isaan sailor]

China attempts to overtake all of SE Asia. It doesn’t look good from an expat’s view.

[Isaan Alan]

23 hours ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

And I suspect that like the Thai Air purchase of the wrong planes in the mid 2000s, there will be kickbacks to "seal the deal"

[Jumbo1968]

23 hours ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

China has done this globally, lend money, the debtors can’t pay China takes some or all of the assets of the said country.

[Isaan sailor]

If ever Thailand has a case of buyer’s remorse—this will do it.

[nong38]

It will make the transport of military equipment much quicker and easier should China fancy an empire. A high speed railway in this country does not benefit many and especially the route in question.

[josephbloggs]

44 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

China has done this globally, lend money, the debtors can’t pay China takes some or all of the assets of the said country.

That's how all loans work.  Have you heard of a mortgage?  If you can't pay they take your house.  If you pay it back you keep everything.  

 

As far as I know it is not confirmed that Thailand is even borrowing from China yet - they rejected the Chinese loan terms once (due to interest rates being too high) and are looking at many finance options including JV's.  It may well end up still being China they borrow from (likely even) but no guarantee.

[josephbloggs]

22 minutes ago, nong38 said:

It will make the transport of military equipment much quicker and easier should China fancy an empire. A high speed railway in this country does not benefit many and especially the route in question.

Ah, this is another one of those favoured TVF anti-China lines.  Yes, beware of bullet trains carrying tanks and missiles because that is certainly the way they will invade.

Pretty sure China has more effective ways to invade a country than by going by hard wired train lines that are easily destroyed - after all the Thais know where they are.  They have a pretty large and effective air force and navy you know.

Edited October 14, 2020 by josephbloggs

[Grumpy John]

20 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

Ah, this is another one of those favoured TVF anti-China lines.  Yes, beware of bullet trains carrying tanks and missiles because that is certainly the way they will invade.

Pretty sure China has more effective ways to invade a country than by going by hard wired train lines that are easily destroyed - after all the Thais know where they are.  They have a pretty large and effective air force and navy you know.

I get your point but the reality is China could secure the line within the spaces of a day.  They have plenty of military resources.  But it wouldn't come to that.  With the current mob of morons still in charge the whiter flag would be up lickerty spit.  Kissing Rs has its benefits. 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/14/2020 at 5:48 PM, Susco said:

So electrified fences prevent washing out of tracks cause by flooding?

 

NEXT

Sorry, don't know what happened but that was meant to be in relation to

On 10/13/2020 at 10:21 PM, ThailandRyan said:

I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not. 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/14/2020 at 6:14 PM, Burma Bill said:

For reference:-

Kunming to Vientiane will probably be operational in 2021 but southwards over the Mekong to Nong Khai and Korat never in 2021, same for Bangkok to Korat:-

How brilliant- build a hi speed rail that misses all the places north of Bkk that might make it worthwhile. To be viable in Thailand it needs to connect Chiang Mai and main cities southward to Bkk.

[DefaultName]

On 10/13/2020 at 6:40 PM, greeneking said:

I would genuinely like to know what benefits you see. Many flights of 5000 baht or less and a flight time of 110 minutes are on offer already.

I would enjoy the journey, but after the fun trip my next trips for business or holidays would be by air. Transporting goods does not need to be done by high speed trains. Many Chinese tourists have very short holidays and want to be somewhere in the quickest way i.e. fly.

Planes are fast, but the ground infrastructure isn't.

City centre to city centre.

Plane; get out of the city to an airport, long walk, queue, check in, long walk, long wait, get on plane, wait, fly, wait, more walking around an airport, get to city centre.

Train; get on train, sit, get off train.  Done.

 

I have serious reservations as to the impact on Thailand of this project, but time and comfort wise, it's a winner for me.

[RubbaJohnny]

On 10/14/2020 at 2:02 PM, Lacessit said:

I don't know how they do it, but Thais seem to be very adept at coming out on top. They were never colonized, and the Japanese basically left them alone when they were brutalizing quite a few other Asian nations.

I think a visit to Kanchanaburi war museums will disabuse of the overlooked history.

While the shameful treatment of Allied prisoners was highlighted in films like Bridge over the River Kwai, It is  estimated 100, 000 ASEAN locals, many were Tamils lured by fales promises of good pay.

 perished.

In addition Thousands of Thai fought with the allies against the Pridi regime and for the exiled regent and against the Phibun collabaoration.

You may have wondered why there is that hemisphere at Victory monument Skytrain, to avoid the shrine to the defeat of the French collaborators with the Axis

 

 

museum.webp

[holy cow cm]

2 hours ago, RocketDog said:

We can always count on one negative emoji response for any post or reply that criticizes Chinese policy in any way. Never fails. 

Yeah, and weirdly enough as I do criticize as absolutely abhor China, it will usually be the OP called khunken. I really hate China and all they are doing is overpopulating the world, destroying it with viruses made in their backyard, and marching to control everything and everyone while always saying they are misunderstood, or that it is their right. Fact of the matter is every country should stay away from biting poisonous China if they know what's best for them. Including Thailand on any and this venture. Nothing good will come from it.

[chainarong]

On 10/13/2020 at 5:21 PM, ThailandRyan said:

Leverage, is that why China has been taking over patrolling the seas so they can see what they want to take away so that there is no leverage except there own.  In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.  How much money is Thailand to make from this new infrastructure, and what will be the benefit of having a bullet train here.  I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not.  Chaos at it's finest.

Only one H/S track in China makes money, all the rest are not expected ever to make any profit , great piece in Asian Times  a few years back , titled , "Whatever You Do Don't Mention the High Speed Railways" 

[onebir]

15 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

I really hate China and all they are doing is overpopulating the world

China has had very low population growth since the One Child Policy started (early 80s) and has been dealing with serious population aging for at least decade as a result. (Which may be one reason they've been so aggressive pushing with their borders etc: the leadership may feel it's now or never.)

[onebir]

Just now, chainarong said:

Only one H/S track in China makes money, all the rest are not expected ever to make any profit , great piece in Asian Times  a few years back , titled , "Whatever You Do Don't Mention the High Speed Railways" 

Most HS routes in China have been facing serious competition from domestic airlines since they were completed, so this could change if domestic route networks are cut back.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, DefaultName said:

Planes are fast, but the ground infrastructure isn't.

City centre to city centre.

Plane; get out of the city to an airport, long walk, queue, check in, long walk, long wait, get on plane, wait, fly, wait, more walking around an airport, get to city centre.

Train; get on train, sit, get off train.  Done.

 

I have serious reservations as to the impact on Thailand of this project, but time and comfort wise, it's a winner for me.

Looking at the route map posted before I don't think this train is intended to benefit Thailand. It looks more like transiting Thailand to get to/ from Singapore.

However, if they can get the Thais to pay for it so much better for them.

 

PS. Look at where Singapore is to understand why they might wish to get there quickly.

[Mister T]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How brilliant- build a hi speed rail that misses all the places north of Bkk that might make it worthwhile. To be viable in Thailand it needs to connect Chiang Mai and main cities southward to Bkk.

Might have something to do with Korat being Cha Cha's home province.

[thaibeachlovers]

33 minutes ago, RubbaJohnny said:

I think a visit to Kanchanaburi war museums will disabuse of the overlooked history.

While the shameful treatment of Allied prisoners was highlighted in films like Bridge over the River Kwai, It is  estimated 100, 000 ASEAN locals, many were Tamils lured by fales promises of good pay.

 perished.

In addition Thousands of Thai fought with the allies against the Pridi regime and for the exiled regent and against the Phibun collabaoration.

You may have wondered why there is that hemisphere at Victory monument Skytrain, to avoid the shrine to the defeat of the French collaborators with the Axis

 

 

museum.webp 46.9 kB · 0 downloads

Apparently the reason more Asians died on the railroad was because they were not disciplined ( as in military trained ) and not because they were treated worse than the allied troops. As I understand it many were transported from what is now Indonesia. It's a shame their cruel fate is so overlooked now.

[holy cow cm]

1 hour ago, onebir said:

China has had very low population growth since the One Child Policy started (early 80s) and has been dealing with serious population aging for at least decade as a result. (Which may be one reason they've been so aggressive pushing with their borders etc: the leadership may feel it's now or never.)

They have been pushing this plan for over 30 years. They just continually keep updating it to fit their changing push and how to drive it past the blind idiot countries.. They have no problem in having too many people.

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Yeah, and weirdly enough as I do criticize as absolutely abhor China, it will usually be the OP called khunken. I really hate China and all they are doing is overpopulating the world, destroying it with viruses made in their backyard, and marching to control everything and everyone while always saying they are misunderstood, or that it is their right. Fact of the matter is every country should stay away from biting poisonous China if they know what's best for them. Including Thailand on any and this venture. Nothing good will come from it.

You guessed right in one try. He seldom posts anything but religiously responds negatively to any post that is even vaguely critical of CCP policy.

 

I will be willing at this point to excuse most of the Chinese people as just being deceived and ignorant. 

 

The CCP is however the most repressive and dangerous regime on the planet bent on nothing less than eventual global domination. And yes, the fruit they offer others is poisoned. Any country China aids will, in the long run, pay an exorbitant price for it, potentially including their freedom. The world is past the point of necessarily  reacting to Chinese agression. 

 

My personal opinion is that the CCP will soon seize the opportunity to gamble an invasion of Taiwan. That will force global unification against them or not. Regardless of the outcome it will force yet another existential crisis on the world. 

[RocketDog]

1 hour ago, holy cow cm said:

They have been pushing this plan for over 30 years. They just continually keep updating it to fit their changing push and how to drive it past the blind idiot countries.. They have no problem in having too many people.

In fact their burgeoning population is their largest problem. Feeding, housing, and most importantly controlling their populace is a massive challenge to which they are failing. 

 

With a lopsided male/female ratio, losing a few tens of millions of  men in uniform is nothing but an incentive to war. 

[holy cow cm]

2 hours ago, RocketDog said:

You guessed right in one try. He seldom posts anything but religiously responds negatively to any post that is even vaguely critical of CCP policy.

 

I will be willing at this point to excuse most of the Chinese people as just being deceived and ignorant. 

 

The CCP is however the most repressive and dangerous regime on the planet bent on nothing less than eventual global domination. And yes, the fruit they offer others is poisoned. Any country China aids will, in the long run, pay an exorbitant price for it, potentially including their freedom. The world is past the point of necessarily  reacting to Chinese agression. 

 

My personal opinion is that the CCP will soon seize the opportunity to gamble an invasion of Taiwan. That will force global unification against them or not. Regardless of the outcome it will force yet another existential crisis on the world. 

I agree. How some of the world’s people can get in bed with the commies is just greed and not caring about anyone else. I also give it a short time before they try to storm Taiwan. Not sure how it can be done but they need to be taken out and out permanently. Thailand should look elsewhere if they want to boost infrastructure for themselves, not for the Commies who can use it for their advancement. I guess khunken will be not liking your and my posts. 

[holy cow cm]

2 hours ago, RocketDog said:

 

With a lopsided male/female ratio, losing a few tens of millions of  men in uniform is nothing but an incentive to war.

So true as it has ever been. Just like before, ordered to run and pick up the dead Chinese soldiers gun in front of them and so on. Expendable. But now they have enough weapons. 

[GeoMill]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How brilliant- build a hi speed rail that misses all the places north of Bkk that might make it worthwhile. To be viable in Thailand it needs to connect Chiang Mai and main cities southward to Bkk.

Could it be possible that those routes are part of different trajects?

 

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, GeoMill said:

Could it be possible that those routes are part of different trajects?

 

Thank you for posting that. I saw only the posted diagram on this thread with the line from China connecting to Bkk through Issan.

Up to me it'd go through Laos and cross the Mekong at the Golden Triangle, go to Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai etc to Bkk. Those are the main population centers.

I doubt any other lines will be built as far too expensive and don't connect to China.

Thailand, IMO, does not need hi speed trains, just faster than what they already have, and that would be solved at a fraction of the cost of hi speed by double tracking.

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Sorry. The people are fine, but the government has to go.

I think 90M or so are CCP members. Can't whitewash them. 

 

It's simple with commies. Either you fight them or you are one. Seems the usual suspects here are either living happily among the CCP or brainwashed through a proxy, usually Chinese wife.

Edited October 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[metisdead]

A post using a derogatory slang comment toward communists has been removed as well as the related posts discussing that comment.