COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[polpott]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Whoa, not so 'fast'.

 

Smallpox mutates slowly so vaccines are easy to make.  Smallpox is double stranded DNA and coronavirus is single stand RNA. DNA has a mutation resistant backup copy that RNA doesn't. In fact, there have already been two significant SARS2 mutations. Vaccines will come but it may not be a magic bullet like smallpox.

Suggest you read the latest info om the Oxford University/Astra Zenica vaccine. Its safe effective and has been in mass production for some time now. Expect all the I's dotted and the Ts crossed on the trials by Christmas.

[scammed]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

It's been proven Sweden's approach didn't work.  NO herd immunity, much higher cases and deaths than nearby neighbors, and an economy that performed worse than these neighbors.

 

From your source.  We know death rates follow cases by 2-4 weeks.

no, from my link, we know death doesnt follow cases,

there is no correlation, try harder

[Fat is a type of crazy]

I think we all get both sides of the argument and there is potentially some valid points on each. But if you were the actual decision maker you have to look at the facts and decide.

I can't see any reason, or conspiracy theory, as to why my Government in Australia, New Zealand or the French govt etc would lock down except that they've done the maths and worked out that the best overall outcome to save lives is to wear masks, social distance and to have some form of lockdown in major breakouts.

It's easy to be cynical of governments, but I am not an expert on this topic, and sometimes you have to accept that, and let others who are, decide. If someone can show me why a government would find a lockdown desirable, without resorting to unproven conspiracy theories, please let me know. 

A lockdown in extreme circumstances  is harsh but it is effective.

If simply separating the vulnerable would work they would do that. 

To just say that I want to be free to live my life, lets call it a Trump approach,  sounds nice but evidence suggests it leads to bad outcomes. Not sure if being free means that you are happy to wear masks and social distance.

Look at the Unites States today. Is this the outcome that is satisfactory to you. There are less deaths now, due to doctors learning how to deal with it, but still 1000 per day and rising. The above average deaths for 2020 are higher than the toll suggesting the figures are underreported. Then there are many with lingering side effects.

The vaccine is objectively not far away. Chill. Keep people safe and if cases get way out of hand lockdown for a while.

 

[Jeffr2]

32 minutes ago, scammed said:

no, from my link, we know death doesnt follow cases,

there is no correlation, try harder

Come on.  100% correlation.  You really need a better source for your news.

 

Absolutely stunning.

[scammed]

10 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Come on.  100% correlation.  You really need a better source for your news.

 

Absolutely stunning.

yeah, right ???? 100% correlation, absolutely stunning

analysis right there

Edited October 31, 2020 by scammed

[Jeffr2]

Please, spend some time reading this.  Jeez.  Death rates are down, but still lag infections by a few weeks.  That's 100% proven. 

 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/data-animation-shows-time-lag-between-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/

[rabas]

50 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Interesting, however I understand that coronaviruses as a group do not mutate much at all.  For the four coronaviruses that cause 30% of common colds, the infections produce no lasting immunity so that the victim just gets the same cold from the same virus the next year.  As we know no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus including SARS and MERS.

"Immunology is where intuition goes to die..."

--- a famous immunologist

 

RNA corona viruses mutate somewhat slower than other (say influenza) RNA viruses but not a whole lot, from a paper from BMC Evolutionary Biology:

 

"The mutation rate in the SARS-CoV genome was estimated to be 0.80 – 2.38 × 10^-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year which is in the same order of magnitude as other RNA viruses ..."

 

My comparison was to the much slower DNA smallpox virus as an example of a stable vaccine, which still holds.. As to how well a SARS-2 vaccine will hold up to mutation, and other issues affecting immunization, I doubt anyone knows for sure. Your points are also possible factors, particularly the fading of immunity, which was not related to mutation.

 

My point was I don't think it will be a slam-dunk, but we will know in a a year or two.

[scammed]

47 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

I think we all get both sides of the argument and there is potentially some valid points on each. But if you were the actual decision maker you have to look at the facts and decide.

I can't see any reason, or conspiracy theory, as to why my Government in Australia, New Zealand or the French govt etc would lock down except that they've done the maths and worked out that the best overall outcome to save lives is to wear masks, social distance and to have some form of lockdown in major breakouts.

It's easy to be cynical of governments, but I am not an expert on this topic, and sometimes you have to accept that, and let others who are, decide. If someone can show me why a government would find a lockdown desirable, without resorting to unproven conspiracy theories, please let me know. 

A lockdown in extreme circumstances  is harsh but it is effective.

If simply separating the vulnerable would work they would do that. 

To just say that I want to be free to live my life, lets call it a Trump approach,  sounds nice but evidence suggests it leads to bad outcomes. Not sure if being free means that you are happy to wear masks and social distance.

Look at the Unites States today. Is this the outcome that is satisfactory to you. There are less deaths now, due to doctors learning how to deal with it, but still 1000 per day and rising. The above average deaths for 2020 are higher than the toll suggesting the figures are underreported. Then there are many with lingering side effects.

The vaccine is objectively not far away. Chill. Keep people safe and if cases get way out of hand lockdown for a while.

 

in case of data analysis, i am an expert by education and politicians are

amateurs. for what reason they resorted to group think,

that i am less sure about, powergrab/flawed group think/fear/worried about how to play for upcoming election/there is probably a whole lot of irrational thoughts they wouldnt even be able to define

[rabas]

11 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Please, spend some time reading this.  Jeez.  Death rates are down, but still lag infections by a few weeks.  That's 100% proven. 

 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/data-animation-shows-time-lag-between-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/

Another important factor missed by scammed.

 

The second wave was initially caused by infections among restless young people who die less often, or at least not often enough it seems. Only later did it spread to the general population and to more vulnerable people. The caused an even longer delay from infections onset to mortality onset.

[Jeffr2]

38 minutes ago, scammed said:

in case of data analysis, i am an expert by education and politicians are

amateurs. for what reason they resorted to group think,

that i am less sure about, powergrab/flawed group think/fear/worried about how to play for upcoming election/there is probably a whole lot of irrational thoughts they wouldnt even be able to define

The better politicians follow the advice of the experts.  Sadly, that's not happening in some Western countries.

[ukrules]

On 10/16/2020 at 3:19 PM, allanos said:

As to influenza, seemingly, during the present virus pandemic, flu transmission numbers have dropped to almost un-measurable proportions.  It is counter-intuitive, to say the least. And why should this be?

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

 

It's normally December to March but sometimes it starts as early as October - not this year though.

 

There's also something else worth considering which you may not be aware of, viruses compete against each other for control of the host and it's thought they prevent each other from infecting.......it's not known how or why they can do this but there's plenty of references to it if you dig deep enough into prior research - I suspect that therein lies a preventative cure for all colds and influenzas.

 

I regard COVID as a cold, it's nothing like a flu at the structural level.

[polpott]

1 minute ago, ukrules said:

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

Also the fact that people are wearing masks and not attending superspreader events.

[ukrules]

2 minutes ago, polpott said:

Also the fact that people are wearing masks and not attending superspreader events.

You can't really look at flu numbers in the northern hemisphere until January to March in any year, unless it arrives unusually early.

[Jeffr2]

4 minutes ago, ukrules said:

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

 

It's normally December to March but sometimes it starts as early as October - not this year though.

 

There's also something else worth considering which you may not be aware of, viruses compete against each other for control of the host and it's thought they prevent each other from infecting.......it's not known how or why they can do this but there's plenty of references to it if you dig deep enough into prior research - I suspect that therein lies a preventative cure for all colds and influenzas.

 

I regard COVID as a cold, it's nothing like a flu at the structural level.

Just heard of the first reported case of someone who got both the flu and CV19 at the same time.  Ugh.

[itsallmine68]

Patrick C

 

 Have you explained to a 5 year old why you are not wearing a mask? as compared to a Condom?

[scammed]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

There's also something else worth considering which you may not be aware of, viruses compete against each other for control of the host and it's thought they prevent each other from infecting.......it's not known how or why they can do this but there's plenty of references to it if you dig deep enough into prior research - I suspect that therein lies a preventative cure for all colds and influenzas.

imo, that is an extra ordinary claim that requires extra ordinary evidence

[ukrules]

37 minutes ago, scammed said:

imo, that is an extra ordinary claim that requires extra ordinary evidence

Go find it then, it's all out there buried in academic papers.

[Bluetongue]

So the flu season has been had in Australia, there were 36 deaths, as opposed to 900 or so in 2019. The Covid deaths are 800+ (with Covid, including palliative care). From a quick look I cannot tell if there is any overlap in the demographic make up of the dead. But it seems reasonable to assume that at least some if not many of the 2020 crop would have been the same victims. I know for a fact my dad died of a respiratory disease in 2017 after being in a nursing home, but he was under palliative care, there was no attempt to treat it except with pain relief. I'm glad he didn't hang on too long, it was very painful to watch. If there is anything good to come out of this it may be increased scrutiny of infection control procedures in retirement facilities. I mean in 2017 there was signage but it was left very much up to the visitors. 

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 10/31/2020 at 11:06 AM, cmarshall said:

As we know no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus including SARS and MERS.

That's not quite true and is a somewhat misleading over-simplification. There have been plenty of vaccines 'developed' for both diseases, just none that were fully approved and licensed (yet). However that's mainly because of a lack of resources being devoted to them, because they're either not a threat any more (SARS) or not a very serious threat (MERS).

 

A lot of promising candidate vaccines were under development for SARS but before any of them could get very far, the virus disappeared and the funding dried up - so the development efforts ground to a halt.

 

As for MERS, vaccine development is still ongoing, with one very promising candidate vaccine (developed by the Oxford University group) currently undergoing human clinical trials in Saudi Arabia. However there's no particularly great impetus to get a quick result because MERS just isn't that much of a threat. It only exists in one small part of the world (so it's not a pandemic) and kills less than 200 people a year on average. So again, not a lot of resources have been allocated to it, with only one group (Oxford University) working on it as far as I know.

 

There are over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development efforts underway and incredible amounts of money, manpower and resources being devoted to them. If only a fraction of this effort had been put into SARS or MERS we probably would have had a vaccine for them by now.

Edited November 1, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Bluetongue]

A synopsis of where I stand, please dont call me a Covid denier, which is a grave insult in current times. I stand aware, I'm avoiding large gatherings, I'm not looking forward to travel, but I have to, to Covid proof my life, already a year has been lost, a second whilst lost needs to be when I take the action to secure my subsequent years, ie I'll be travelling shortly.

 

As far as rhe second wave goes. I look at the world figures and all I see is the original wave getting bigger and bigger, there is no global second wave. It is media hype. In the USA the graph is generally going up consistently with two earlier peaks, and the current one, noticeable but not defined enough imo to be called a second or third wave. It is a large country and population so there may be second waves down in the state by state figures. Europe is arguably a clear second wave. However the death rates across all those places have not mirrored the increases in infections. For instance in April when the global infections were at 90k per day, deaths were at 6k. The other day infections were 500k but deaths were 6k. Death rate does follow infection rate more clearly in some countries than others. For instance in India its almost contiguous, in Australia seemed to be about 3 weeks behind. There are probably reasons for that but it is misleading to say that it is a consistent measure.

 

Reinfection seems possible but I have not seen a statistically significant number yet, confirmed is 4 although that is estimated to be much higher, stress estimated. One would think that of the 34 million people who have recovered from Covid a few more than 4 would have been found to be reinfected, given that the general population rate is about .66%, that extrapolated would be 200k. And I'm not saying that as a prelude to suggesting herd immunity, which simply put would probably take too long without a vaccine. Lastly long Covid is still a work in progress, no one knows anything more than 9 or 10 months and I'll be interested to read what I can of the research as it matures. I dont believe any lockdown can be justified other than the imminent overload of the health system. I dont doubt that in some cases, this is not the case. For instance in NZ the public commentary is driving and endorsing the lockdowns even in tiny numbers of infections, anyone who tries to express doubt is howled down. Anyway its not all doom and gloom,  green shoots are everywhere. 

[BritManToo]

12 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

A synopsis of where I stand, please dont call me a Covid denier, which is a grave insult in current times. I stand aware, I'm avoiding large gatherings

In Thailand nobody has COVID, so no point in wearing a mask or avoiding other people if nobody has it.

Any other country ..... don't care as I'm not there.

 

Last night at the Loi Kratong festival, loads of people, a few had masks round their necks.

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by BritManToo

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

oh ya, lots of "green shoots"...

 

Per Johns Hopkins Oct. 30 COVID update:

 

Quote

The US CDC reported 8.83 million total cases, 227,045 total deaths, and 521,726 new cases in the past 7 days. The daily COVID-19 incidence continues to increase, now up to 81,599 new cases per day, representing a 22% increase in daily reported cases compared to last week and now surpassing the previous highest peak in mid-July.

 

France

On Tuesday October 27, 33,000 new cases were confirmed in France, at their highest level since April. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the entire country will be re-entering a nationwide lockdown beginning today, October 30, and lasting until December 1.

 

Germany

Similar to France’s actions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany would be entering a nationwide partial lockdown. The lockdown period is set to begin on November 2 and end on November 30.

 

RUSSIA MASK MANDATE AND VACCINE The Russian government issued an order, effective Wednesday, mandating that masks be worn in all public spaces or where more than 50 people may gather.

 

etc etc etc.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

If there is anything good to come out of this it may be increased scrutiny of infection control procedures in retirement facilities.

 

Quote

As pandemic raged and thousands died, government regulators cleared most nursing homes of infection-control violations

...the government inspectors deployed by CMS during the first six months of the crisis cleared nearly 8 in 10 nursing homes of any infection-control violations even as the deadliest pandemic to strike the United States in a century sickened and killed thousands, a Washington Post investigation found.
 

Those cleared included homes with mounting coronavirus outbreaks before or during the inspections, as well as those that saw cases and deaths spiral upward after inspectors reported no violations had been found, in some cases multiple times. All told, homes that received a clean bill of health earlier this year had about 290,000 coronavirus cases and 43,000 deaths among residents and staff, state and federal data shows.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/29/nursing-home-deaths-fines/

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[cmarshall]

9 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

That's not quite true and is a somewhat misleading over-simplification. There have been plenty of vaccines 'developed' for both diseases, just none that were fully approved and licensed (yet). However that's mainly because of a lack of resources being devoted to them, because they're either not a threat any more (SARS) or not a very serious threat (MERS).

 

A lot of promising candidate vaccines were under development for SARS but before any of them could get very far, the virus disappeared and the funding dried up - so the development efforts ground to a halt.

 

As for MERS, vaccine development is still ongoing, with one very promising candidate vaccine (developed by the Oxford University group) currently undergoing human clinical trials in Saudi Arabia. However there's no particularly great impetus to get a quick result because MERS just isn't that much of a threat. It only exists in one small part of the world (so it's not a pandemic) and kills less than 200 people a year on average. So again, not a lot of resources have been allocated to it, with only one group (Oxford University) working on it as far as I know.

 

There are over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development efforts underway and incredible amounts of money, manpower and resources being devoted to them. If only a fraction of this effort had been put into SARS or MERS we probably would have had a vaccine for them by now.

 

Thanks for the detailed update, but there are a fair number of reasons not to jump on the vaccine optimism bandwagon.  I understand that that in the past twenty-five years only seven new vaccines have been approved.  Then there are the widespread infections for which still no vaccine is available, for example, malaria, dengue, and HIV.  So, straight-line extrapolations based on commitment of resources are not necessarily persuasive.

 

It may be that a SARS or MERS vaccine may yet appear, but consider the four coronaviruses that account for 30% of the common cold.  If I understand correctly the other 70% would be rhinoviruses of which there are more than 100 types. If so, the four coronaviruses would be the highest value targets for vaccine development against the common cold.  Think of how large that market would be and yet there is no such vaccine.

 

Finally, if you have ever followed drug development you know that every new drug is always promising right up until Phase 3 results fail to show a benefit.

 

So, I remain slightly in the skeptic camp.

[max2u]

On 10/15/2020 at 6:07 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

Not like a regular flu at all. They want masks and distancing to be permanent. None of that happened for regular flu or any other diseases, far as I know.

I'm happy to go back to life as pre corona and take my chances, even though I'm over 70 and not particularly healthy.

As there are a sizable fraction of covid-infected people who are asymptomatic, one of whom may be *you* , sooner or later, you are willing to take other people's lives as part of your chances?  

[Jeffr2]

Just found this new site for looking at CV19 projections.  FYI!

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/thailand?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, max2u said:

As there are a sizable fraction of covid-infected people who are asymptomatic, one of whom may be *you* , sooner or later, you are willing to take other people's lives as part of your chances?  

I'm willing to die if that's what you are getting at. That's no secret as I've said it a few times on TVF. I'd rather die a free man than hiding in my room and wearing a mask everytime I go outside.

 

Sweden rocks.

Edited November 2, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[Jeffr2]

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm willing to die if that's what you are getting at. That's no secret as I've said it a few times on TVF. I'd rather die a free man than hiding in my room and wearing a mask everytime I go outside.

 

Sweden rocks.

Who's hiding in their basement?  You're using an alt right talking point. 

 

As for masks, as you know, they are for the protection of others, not you.  So that's a very selfish statement.  I have rights also.  The right to not be killed by people with these thoughts.  Mask up when necessary until this is over.  Luckily, here, we're in very good shape.  Not so in the West.

 

P.S.  Sweden is also an alt right talking point.  They failed.  That's been proven.  Many times.

 

Look at the projection for Sweden.  Not good.  Then compare them to their nearest neighbors. 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Edited November 2, 2020 by Jeffr2

[polpott]

On 11/2/2020 at 3:48 PM, PatrickC said:

Stop running around with your arms in the air screaming and start a campaign to get junk food banned.

The only person running around screaming with their arms in the air on this thread is you.

 

Get a grip.

[Jeffr2]

On 11/2/2020 at 3:48 PM, PatrickC said:

<snip>

 

If I want to be positive I am going to be. If you want to be negative, that is on you.

 

You are denying CV19 is dangerous and suggesting you only care about yourself.  I'd say that's being negative.  I'm very positive about the future.  Just don't deny the reality of today, like you do.

 

Selfish.  What a horrible way to live your life.